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    Raptors Republic All-Star Balls of Steel's Avatar
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    Default The Raptors Lose Even If They Win!

    "It's great that the Raptors aren't as bad as everyone figured they'd be but now they have to either make themselves that bad or get good enough to matter."

    - Tim Chrisholm


    The title is not in any way connected to the last win although they lost a few key players in the process. Chrisholm's latest article has made me think about what's been on my mind since the beginning of the season. I call it the "30-win" trap, and it happens to be the impetus for the article.

    The team has exhibited the expected "Jekyll and Hyde" syndrome but overall isn't as bad as what most people think. Come to think of it, BC isn't a bad GM in hindsight. Before the flames come out of people's nostrils, allow me to elaborate.

    BC has assembled a team that many people would think by now is achieving better than most expectations. As a matter of fact, the Roko Ukic / Carlos Delfino for Amir Johnson / Sonny Weems, Barbosa for Turkoglu & Bayless for Jack trades are some of the reasons for the unexpected play of this team.

    Certain NBA pundits predicted the Raptors to challenge the futility record. Bob McCown went as far as saying that the Raps wouldn't win 8 games! I personally thought that they're a 30-35 win team, which led me to the trap theory.

    Many teams that finish with this much wins is usually not good enough to make the play-offs (and in the odd chance that they did, they's be blown away to smithereens in the first round). Also, with 30 wins, they're not bad enough to land the top 5 in an otherwise super-thin draft either. So the dilemma begins and it begs three important factors:

    1. Is BC (in hindsight) a really good GM for assembling a team that without Bosh is achieving much better than expected? Is he steering the ship in the right direction?

    2. Is Triano a better coach than many would give him credit for (with more wins than the Clippers, New Jersey, Washington, Minnesota, Cleveland and Sacramento)? Also, the team ranks 26th in points against (a mild improvement from last year with Bosh).

    3. What to do with a roster that could potential win 25 - 30 games? Do we build to make the first round or strip further away to go the bottom (to complicate things, teams that suck all the time like the Clippers and Minnesota are not meeting success despite their access to the # 1 draft pick on almost an annual basis)?


    If you have 3 moves to make between now and the end of the season, what would you do?
    “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Great thread. I've stated a few times that the Raptors are stranded in the limbo known as mediocrity.
    Not bad enough to improve through the draft, but not good enough to attract top tier talent and improve through free agency.

    I do maintain that Bryan Colangelo is a very capable GM and the Raptors would not be any better off with anyone else at the helm.

    I have been a supporter of Triano, however I have become more and more disenchanted with his style of coaching. These young guys need to shown the path to success, and I'm just not sure Triano, as good a coach as he is (and he actually is), is capable of communicating the 'winning mentality' to these young guys. They need to hear it from someone who has experienced it.

    I think the only way this team improves is through a trade, or if we turn out to be as bad as the critics thought.

    I do believe we have an abundance of young talent, cap room, and draft picks, so I think this off-season/trade deadline will really shape the next few years for us.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Balls of Steel's Avatar
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    Well, if the record counts then he's actually outcoaching Byron Scott and Flip Saunders (by this I mean reaching the young players rather than strict X's and O's).
    “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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    Raptors Republic Rookie MiltPalacio's Avatar
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    I don't think you need to break this team apart because they're doing well. These guys are very young, and if they are ahead of where they should be, then why is that a bad thing? Sure a high draft pick would be nice, but why fix what isn't even broken. Give these young guys a chance to develop into a team together.

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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
    Well, if the record counts then he's actually outcoaching Byron Scott and Flip Saunders (by this I mean reaching the young players rather than strict X's and O's).
    This is absolutely true, but 'out-coaching' those teams and coaches, doesn't necessarily mean he is getting everything out of these guys that he could be. A young players ability to consistently grow is everybit on the coach as it is on the players. If they are putting in the extra time with the coaching staff, but are not showing significant improvement, then perhaps it is where the guidance is coming from, as opposed to where, or for whom, it was directed.

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    Raps need an outright STUD at PG or Wing to ever start dreaming of a championship....they'll never sign someone like chris paul or carmelo, so they have to get it somehow through the draft

    Interestingly, they have a pretty decent front court going forward. Bargs/AJ/Davis is a pretty well-rounded group. And they still have more potential room to grow. Obviously you'd love to have a young Shaq or DH (who wouldn't?), but barring that, you cant really do much better than that group.

    If you could just hypothetically add a guy like John Wall to this team (again, who wouldn't love to have him) - I would be willing to just let the team grow with the realistic hope of them growing into an elite team. They just need to get that one crazy/sick/superstar player dammmit!

    they even have the other wing pieces to put around a stud (derozan, bayless) but not that actual guy himself.

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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Ruuuuu wrote: View Post
    Raps need an outright STUD at PG or Wing to ever start dreaming of a championship....they'll never sign someone like chris paul or carmelo, so they have to get it somehow through the draft

    Interestingly, they have a pretty decent front court going forward. Bargs/AJ/Davis is a pretty well-rounded group. And they still have more potential room to grow. Obviously you'd love to have a young Shaq or DH (who wouldn't?), but barring that, you cant really do much better than that group.

    If you could just hypothetically add a guy like John Wall to this team (again, who wouldn't love to have him) - I would be willing to just let the team grow with the realistic hope of them growing into an elite team. They just need to get that one crazy/sick/superstar player dammmit!

    they even have the other wing pieces to put around a stud (derozan, bayless) but not that actual guy himself.
    Agreed. But a trade, with some of the pieces we have, is also a possible route to acquire said 'stud'.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    cant emphasize enough the need for a man in the middle.
    davis is starting to get good, but he cant really body up on the likes of bynum, gasol, dhow
    scoring/defending wing is needed too

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    Quote tbihis wrote: View Post
    cant emphasize enough the need for a man in the middle.
    davis is starting to get good, but he cant really body up on the likes of bynum, gasol, dhow
    scoring/defending wing is needed too
    Yep.

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    It's funny how when you take the usual defensive liability suspects out- Bargnani, Calderon, Weems, and throw guys like Wright on the floor, we win ugly, but we win

    I'll take that any day over losing pretty.

    With that said, here's what I would do:

    - Trade Bargnani now that his stock is at an all time high.

    - Acquire a hard nosed centre

    - Acquire a dynamic small forward or shooting guard

    lots of pieces to do this, Bargnani, Peja, TPE, Reggie...


    This team will not achieve success until Raptors management wakes up and sees that Bargnani is NOT the way to the title

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    BC and Triano will be back for the next NBA season after this one.

    I expect all of the current rotation players will return for that season except for one or maybe two.
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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
    "It's great that the Raptors aren't as bad as everyone figured they'd be but now they have to either make themselves that bad or get good enough to matter."

    - Tim Chrisholm


    The title is not in any way connected to the last win although they lost a few key players in the process. Chrisholm's latest article has made me think about what's been on my mind since the beginning of the season. I call it the "30-win" trap, and it happens to be the impetus for the article.

    The team has exhibited the expected "Jekyll and Hyde" syndrome but overall isn't as bad as what most people think. Come to think of it, BC isn't a bad GM in hindsight. Before the flames come out of people's nostrils, allow me to elaborate.

    BC has assembled a team that many people would think by now is achieving better than most expectations. As a matter of fact, the Roko Ukic / Carlos Delfino for Amir Johnson / Sonny Weems, Barbosa for Turkoglu & Bayless for Jack trades are some of the reasons for the unexpected play of this team.

    Certain NBA pundits predicted the Raptors to challenge the futility record. Bob McCown went as far as saying that the Raps wouldn't win 8 games! I personally thought that they're a 30-35 win team, which led me to the trap theory.

    Many teams that finish with this much wins is usually not good enough to make the play-offs (and in the odd chance that they did, they's be blown away to smithereens in the first round). Also, with 30 wins, they're not bad enough to land the top 5 in an otherwise super-thin draft either. So the dilemma begins and it begs three important factors:

    1. Is BC (in hindsight) a really good GM for assembling a team that without Bosh is achieving much better than expected? Is he steering the ship in the right direction?

    2. Is Triano a better coach than many would give him credit for (with more wins than the Clippers, New Jersey, Washington, Minnesota, Cleveland and Sacramento)? Also, the team ranks 26th in points against (a mild improvement from last year with Bosh).

    3. What to do with a roster that could potential win 25 - 30 games? Do we build to make the first round or strip further away to go the bottom (to complicate things, teams that suck all the time like the Clippers and Minnesota are not meeting success despite their access to the # 1 draft pick on almost an annual basis)?


    If you have 3 moves to make between now and the end of the season, what would you do?
    This really is a good thread, nice work.

    There is no doubt Triano is a good coach. They don't let anybody work with Team USA. Also, I think he is a good teacher. Motivating the team and having them prepared night in and night out is what I would like to see. As the team grows, develops, and hopefully enjoys success, maybe JT's coaching style will evolve to reflect that. If it doesn't, then it is time to get a coach who has experienced winning.

    The pundits are douchebags who are yes-men. One person comes up with an opinion and no one wants to go against the norm because if they are wrong, at least they are wrong with everyone.

    1. Many disagree but whatever. I agree I am content with BC leading the team right now. The next year will be critical to the Raptors success in the near and intermediate future (1-3 years).

    2. Triano is a better coach than many give him credit however that is not saying much - especially outside Raptors fans/media i.e. USA.

    3. What to do with the roster? Things look pretty good right now with the exception of Calderon's contract. I harp on this all the time but I think it is important.

    Three moves between now and end of season - I'll get back to you.

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    Administrator Arsenalist's Avatar
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    Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

    This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.

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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Arsenalist wrote: View Post
    Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

    This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.
    Fact.
    However, I think if we look at most any team that has 'rebuilt' in the last 10-15 years, the successful rebuilding projects (turned themselves into contenders) have basically gotten the FIRST pick, and never looked back. ie. Magic (twice. Shaq and DH), Cleveland (LB), Bulls (DR), San Antonio (TD. Go further back and they've done it twice as well with Robinson), Phili (AI), Nets (KM. They made it to the finals twice after drafting him).
    BUT almost just as many have not taken that proverbial 'next step' after making the first pick. ie Bucks (AB), Portland (GO), Clippers (Candyman), Washington (KB), Toronto (AB).

    Now obviously teams have been rebuilt with a pick lower No. 1 (See MJ, Kobe, Amare, Vince, Curry,) but I do think your chances of a successful rebuilding project are increased 10x if you get that No.1 pick. But I do NOT think tanking is how you get there. Historically the worst team rarely actually nets the First Pick. So I think if we just stay as bad as we know we can be, we'll be just fine.
    Last edited by Joey; Thu Dec 30th, 2010 at 05:27 PM.

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    Quote Arsenalist wrote: View Post
    Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

    This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.
    You cant tell players and coaches not to play hard and try to win...THAT is what is never going to happen for all sorts of reasons

    But organizations can decide they're not going to do anything and everything to win most possible games one season. Not only is that possible, it happens all the time.

    "rebuilding", "retooling", "building through the draft" - whatever, basically means a team is not going to try and add a bunch of meddling talent or sign an aging vet. They're going to make the young kids play, hopefully its exciting and the fans dont revolt, and once they get a couple of high draft picks maybe things will be different.

    Agree the Raps dont have to finish last overall. (Thats another thing you cant really guarantee or try and shoot for). They could like finish 5th last, get a spike in the lottery to like 3rd, etc. There was a link posted (I think in one of the Tom Liston posts) that shows the chances of getting a star at each draft position...obviously it decreases as you go down IIRC after top 3 there was a noticable drop in chances to get a "star".

    And absolutely nothing beats a year when you have 1st overall pick, and there is an obvious franchise choice that year (eg. Iverson, James)...damn thats like a shot of heroin in the morning, you know what I mean?

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Mediumcore's Avatar
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    Any moves I would make would be centered around improving mainly the SG position. I think this position is where the "stud" or superstar player we make any moves for should play. It also solves the problem of the big contract belonging to Jose Calderon. Though it's a big contract for a point guard coming off the bench (which most agree Jose should be) it's a relatively good contract for a starting pg. If you have a star at the shooting guard spot that can create for others as well as for himself then it's a bonus to surround that player with good shooters like Calderon. Thus it would solve the need to trade JC....atleast until we're good enough to be contenders in the East. The only problem is finding a good to great SG and it might have to come from the draft.

    The only other move I think the Raptors need to do is move Andrea. I think our bigs play well enough that he isn't needed (as long as we get that good scoring sg I was talking about). Andrea has been playing so well on the offensive end of the floor that I think he could be more of an asset to us on the trading block than anything else. Perhaps a team that is having a tough time scoring like the Bucks could use his talents in exchange for some draft picks or young player(s), expiring contracts etc..

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    Quote Arsenalist wrote: View Post
    Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

    This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.
    Just for some perspective, from Bill Simmons Book of Basketball:

    With Hakeem and Jordan looming as draft prizes, both the Rockets (blew 14 of their last 17, including 9 of their last 10) and Bulls (lost 19 of their last 23, including 14 of their last 15) said, "Screw it, we'll bastardize the sport," and pulled some fishy crap: resting key guys, giving lousy guys big minutes and everything else.
    Both Houston and Chicago eventually won Championships. I'm not condoning anything, especially in a year when there are no Hakeem or Jordan's on the horizon, but teams have certainly tanked in the past (Cleveland to get LeBron) and benefitted a great deal from it.

    And the farther down you draft, the less likely you'll get an impact player. Hell, it's possible to find an impact player at 29 (Tony Parker), but the chances of doing it are about the same as winning the lottery (okay, maybe a bit better than that). The truth is, the best chance of finding an impact player is in the top 5 of the draft.
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    Raptors Republic Starter minks77's Avatar
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    I'm hoping BC has assembled this 25-30 win team with an eye to this draft. With everyone so young, mostly cheap but all obvious role players, he needs a top 3 this year to tie it all together. He has multiple first round picks (one a likely lottery pick), the TPE and expiring contracts to whore out. Is he going to go all in for a perceived superstar draftee?

    Best case is Raps win the lotto, then use the assets to bring in a couple of veterans and have the raps off and running right away. That's the pipe dream anyway.

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    Quote minks77 wrote: View Post
    I'm hoping BC has assembled this 25-30 win team with an eye to this draft. With everyone so young, mostly cheap but all obvious role players, he needs a top 3 this year to tie it all together. He has multiple first round picks (one a likely lottery pick), the TPE and expiring contracts to whore out. Is he going to go all in for a perceived superstar draftee?

    Best case is Raps win the lotto, then use the assets to bring in a couple of veterans and have the raps off and running right away. That's the pipe dream anyway.
    A repeat of Chicago in 2008 getting Rose at #1 when they should have drafted 9 would be sweeet.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Balls of Steel's Avatar
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    In 2006 - 2007, the 24-58 Celtics were poised to go in the draft as high as the second pick and was hoping to draft Durant that year. The Celts certainly didn't tank but was an awful rag-tag team that needed a fresh injection of new talent. Well, the ping-pong gods were'nt on their side and they slid down as low as 5th overall. After drafting Jeff Green, we all knew what happened next. I'm just saying that BC can use the new CBA landscape to find his own crop of future players to complement what we already have (in much the same way Danny Ainge swung for the fences in 2008.

    If all is well the type of players I'm referring to besides the draft are players like Javale McGee, Jeff Green, Wesley Johnson, Jonny Flynn, etc. As for Bargs, he's the biggest trade asset the Raps have.
    Last edited by Balls of Steel; Thu Dec 30th, 2010 at 07:36 PM.
    “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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