The Raptors Lose Even If They Win!

[minks77]

I'm hoping BC has assembled this 25-30 win team with an eye to this draft. With everyone so young, mostly cheap but all obvious role players, he needs a top 3 this year to tie it all together. He has multiple first round picks (one a likely lottery pick), the TPE and expiring contracts to whore out. Is he going to go all in for a perceived superstar draftee?

Best case is Raps win the lotto, then use the assets to bring in a couple of veterans and have the raps off and running right away. That's the pipe dream anyway.

[Matt52]

I'm hoping BC has assembled this 25-30 win team with an eye to this draft. With everyone so young, mostly cheap but all obvious role players, he needs a top 3 this year to tie it all together. He has multiple first round picks (one a likely lottery pick), the TPE and expiring contracts to whore out. Is he going to go all in for a perceived superstar draftee?

Best case is Raps win the lotto, then use the assets to bring in a couple of veterans and have the raps off and running right away. That's the pipe dream anyway.

A repeat of Chicago in 2008 getting Rose at #1 when they should have drafted 9 would be sweeet.

[Mediumcore]

Any moves I would make would be centered around improving mainly the SG position. I think this position is where the "stud" or superstar player we make any moves for should play. It also solves the problem of the big contract belonging to Jose Calderon. Though it's a big contract for a point guard coming off the bench (which most agree Jose should be) it's a relatively good contract for a starting pg. If you have a star at the shooting guard spot that can create for others as well as for himself then it's a bonus to surround that player with good shooters like Calderon. Thus it would solve the need to trade JC....atleast until we're good enough to be contenders in the East. The only problem is finding a good to great SG and it might have to come from the draft.

The only other move I think the Raptors need to do is move Andrea. I think our bigs play well enough that he isn't needed (as long as we get that good scoring sg I was talking about). Andrea has been playing so well on the offensive end of the floor that I think he could be more of an asset to us on the trading block than anything else. Perhaps a team that is having a tough time scoring like the Bucks could use his talents in exchange for some draft picks or young player(s), expiring contracts etc..

[Tim W.]

Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.

Just for some perspective, from Bill Simmons Book of Basketball:

With Hakeem and Jordan looming as draft prizes, both the Rockets (blew 14 of their last 17, including 9 of their last 10) and Bulls (lost 19 of their last 23, including 14 of their last 15) said, "Screw it, we'll bastardize the sport," and pulled some fishy crap: resting key guys, giving lousy guys big minutes and everything else.

Both Houston and Chicago eventually won Championships. I'm not condoning anything, especially in a year when there are no Hakeem or Jordan's on the horizon, but teams have certainly tanked in the past (Cleveland to get LeBron) and benefitted a great deal from it.

And the farther down you draft, the less likely you'll get an impact player. Hell, it's possible to find an impact player at 29 (Tony Parker), but the chances of doing it are about the same as winning the lottery (okay, maybe a bit better than that). The truth is, the best chance of finding an impact player is in the top 5 of the draft.

[Balls of Steel]

In 2006 - 2007, the 24-58 Celtics were poised to go in the draft as high as the second pick and was hoping to draft Durant that year. The Celts certainly didn't tank but was an awful rag-tag team that needed a fresh injection of new talent. Well, the ping-pong gods were'nt on their side and they slid down as low as 5th overall. After drafting Jeff Green, we all knew what happened next. I'm just saying that BC can use the new CBA landscape to find his own crop of future players to complement what we already have (in much the same way Danny Ainge swung for the fences in 2008.

If all is well the type of players I'm referring to besides the draft are players like Javale McGee, Jeff Green, Wesley Johnson, Jonny Flynn, etc. As for Bargs, he's the biggest trade asset the Raps have.

[Nine New Faces]

I agree that you can fuck up a pick as easily at 3 as you can at 8, but that's ignoring the relative talent levels typically available at those numbers. You're looking at guys a lot closer to can't-miss at the 3 spot than you are at the 8, which is typically athletic project players like DeRozan. Draft order also matters for trying to deal for something like a top-3 pick from a team that'd be looking at position overlap if they drafted the best available player. You're not going to jump from 8th pick to 2nd without including a lot more than you might want to give up, but Miami's 30th pick and some cash might get you from 5th to 3rd pick so you can draft the guy you really covet.

That aside, what the raps should really be doing right now is evaluating the talent they have. The real problem with a win-now scenario is that it means relying on what you know you can get from the more established players like Barbosa, Kleiza and Calderon and featuring them in your offense to the detriment of DeMar, Amir, Wright and Bayless. If you want to draft the best player for your team it helps to know what you've already got and which guys are really the future of your franchise, and only more playing time is going to resolve that. This goes for Jay too; coaches develop with time and experience just like players.

So if I'm Triano, Im letting the kids play, resting the vets and showcasing the assets. There's a ton of expendable talent, contracts and picks to work with in trying to improve the club. Personally I'd explore what I could get for Bargnani, but we know BC won't do it. At worst he should be able to snag another 2nd round pick at the deadline, maybe a contender comes looking for a piece and he pockets a useful player in return, but I can't see anything big going down without taking on a lot of contract in the process.

Meaning, next year's team is probably going to look a lot like this year's team, plus a few more young players. Maybe the rookie will be a star, maybe he'll be another athletic project, but it's going to be through the draft and developing what they already have that the Raps find success. Maybe down the line all the young talent gets traded for a star, but it's not worth doing if you don't already have a star of your own to put them beside. So play the kids, figure out what you've got, and go into the draft hoping to find the guy that puts the franchise back on the right track.

[jd4]

Great thread with lots of really intelligent comments here. Right now, the Raptors have a lot of good 2nd tier talent with the potential for some of them (ie. DeRozan, Davis etc.) to develop into top tier talent. What they're lacking is 1-2 stud players to make them a very good team. To acquire that, they either have to draft, trade, or sign them as free agents. They currently don't have the assets to trade for an elite player. It's doubtful that they can sign one via free agency, although things could change once the new CBA is in place and if a hard cap comes into being. That leaves them with the draft to look at. The best thing that could happen to them would be to get a top 3 pick this summer. I'm hoping they do so and somehow land Kyrie Irving of Duke. He would be a perfect fit for this team as would someone like Harrison Barnes or Perry Jones. Once you have this piece, you can start to look at perhaps moving someone like Calderon for a Defensive Minded Centre. This would allow you to shift Andrea to the 4 spot where he'd be a lot more effective. After that, if you can use your trade exemption and cap room to find a good SF, this team would be all set. I also think you need to let BC continue to do what he's started here. I think in his first few years, he was hampered by the fact that he needed to build a team around Bosh in order to try to keep him. Since the summer of 2009, he's begun to build the team his way and the results are beginning to show. The next part of this season and what happens in the summer will be critical to the future of the franchise. I hope it works out for the team, the players, the organization, and the fans. There's been little to cheer for, sports wise, in TO, over the last 5-6 years. But, things go in cycles. So, I hope that 2011 marks the beginning of a good cycle for T.O. sports teams.