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Thread: Calderon's Value

  1. #1
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    Default Calderon's Value

    Is there any way we can get a front page post to hash out Calderon's value (both as a trade piece, and to this team) once and for all? It makes it hard to discuss things when we can't even roughly agree on the value of players.

    I personally think that Calderon is a backup quality point guard, who doesn't have much room for growth or improvement. I make this statement based upon his age, brittleness, lack of athleticism, and taking into account that his sometimes offensive brilliance is overshadowed by his defensive liabilities. To me, this sounds like a very good backup/borderline starting PG (think CJ Watson.)

    Yet many others think that he is a top 10 PG or something.

    Given that he is being paid 8 million a year for the next 4-5 years, I think this means he has negative trade value: the only way to get trade him is to swap him for a similarly bad contract. In particular, trading him for expiring contracts is exceedingly unlikely.

    Can the RR staff take a stab at this, hash this out once and for all? Perhaps do a two part thing where the staff evaluates him, but then also has several third parties (e.g., other TrueHoop Network guys) also evaluate him?

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    He still have value in this league, I think most teams would want him..

    I bet even the Lakers wants Calderon ... if they have a chance...

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    Let's take a look at Jose's qualities:

    - Doesn't need shots to be effective: This is useful on any team that already has plenty of scorers. Jose is perfectly fine with facilitating the offense and only using his own offense when needed.

    - Handles the ball well (low turnovers): Extremely useful in the playoffs whene very posession counts.

    - Keeps the defense honest: Extremely useful for all teams because their own quick-hand PG can't sag off Jose to double a fumbling big-man.

    - High half-court offense IQ: Jose is very comfortable in the half-court.

    As for the knocks on Jose, the biggest one is his defense.

    So if you're going to trade Jose, it has to be a team that needs help with their offense (either facilitating it or providing it) and turnovers and can at the same time hide Jose's defensive inability to keep his man in front of him. Three teams that can do this are Charlotte, LA Lakers, and Boston.

    The Lakers need a PG of the future, especially with Fisher being put down soon. Jose would have to learn the triangle offense but he's a smart guy, shouldn't be a problem. He can get the ball to the right people at the right times, and his defense would be helped by the fact that Pau/Bynum are capable rotation defenders. Speaking of Gasol, they'd already have chemistry! Jose for Farmar + x is the most likely scenario.

    Charlotte has DJ Augustine dissapointing and it's clear they're not liking Felton (given his 1 yr deal this offseason). They're also struggling on offense even with the SJax trade. Larry Brown's defensive schemes should be much more forgiving to Jose than Triano's. The only question here is if Jose's salary would be an issue. Otherwise, Felton + Henderson for Jose works out, except Felton would have to agree to the trade.

    Boston does not need Jose. They have Rondo. I don't think they want to commit so much money to 2 PGs over the next few seasons.

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    We need calderon >_<..... without calderon my jersey is useless >_<

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    Top 15 point guard + good trade value

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    Raptors Republic All-Star brothersteve's Avatar
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    Quote Faithleader wrote: View Post
    He still have value in this league, I think most teams would want him..

    I bet even the Lakers wants Calderon ... if they have a chance...
    Lakers should absolutely drool over any prospect of putting Calderon and Gasol together.
    The best Raptors discussion board is at Raptors Republic.

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    Default .

    Quote Dave wrote: View Post
    Top 15 point guard + good trade value
    Can you please name the 15+ starting PGs he is better than? Or teams that would gladly swap PGs, considering length of contract, price, and talent?

    Here are 21 PGs better than him (note that some teams do PG by committee, in which case I list both the starter and backup):

    1. Jonny Flynn
    2. Deron Williams
    3. Steve Nash
    4. Chris Paul
    5. Gilbert Arenas
    6. Tyreke Evans
    7. Brandon Jennings
    8. Mo Williams
    9. Rodney Stuckey/Will Bynum
    10. Rajon Rondo
    11. Baron Davis
    12. Russell Westbrook
    13. Jason Kidd
    14. Derrick Rose
    15. Chauncey Billups
    16. Aaron Brooks/Kyle Lowry
    17. Devin Harris
    18. Jameer Nelson
    20. Tony Parker
    21. Chauncey Billups

    Possible not better, but thoroughly outplaying him this year:
    1. Beno Udrih

    Small guards who I don't think are points, but who are also clearly better:
    1. Monta Ellis
    2. Jerryd Bayless

    Arguable:
    1. Andre Miller
    2. Mario Chalmers
    3. Ty Lawson
    4. Stephen Curry/CJ Watson
    5. Ramon Sessions



    Note that the above is on a pure talent and effectiveness evaluation, not considering contracts (Most of the above guys are on reasonable contracts; the major exceptions are Gilbert Arenas and Baron Davis. Once you take contracts into account, then Calderon looks even worse in comparison..)

    Once can quibble with the above lists a bit, but it is quite clear that Calderon is not a top 20 starter, let alone top 15.

    Honestly, this should come as no surprise. If the team does not perform substantially better when you are on the floor, versus your backup, this suggests that you aren't much better than your backup.
    Yet, most people would evaluate Jarrett Jack as basically a borderline starter/very good backup.
    what does this say about Calderon that the team actually seems to play BETTER when he is off the floor?

    Compare this to someone like Billups, for example, whose presence is sorely being missed by the nuggets..

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    Quote Ripp wrote: View Post
    Can you please name the 15+ starting PGs he is better than?
    I consider Jose Calderon a better point guard than Mike Bibby, Mo Williams, Raymond Felton, Derrick Rose, Aaron Brooks (Lowry), Monta Ellis (Curry), Rodney Stuckey (Bynum), Derek Fisher, Mario Chalmers, Jonny Flynn, Mike Conley, Brandon Jennings, Louis Williams (Iverson), Steve Blake (not better than Andre Miller but Miller is more situation dependent than Calderon is), Devin Harris, Chris Duhon ... and is possibly better than Gilbert Arenas depending on how his recovery continues to progress.

    A couple of those players are youngsters who'll surpass Jose over the next few years. Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings in particular.

    Quote Ripp wrote: View Post
    Or teams that would gladly swap PGs, considering length of contract, price, and talent?
    Why do you want to trade Jose Calderon for a point guard?

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    @dave

    can i be in your fantasy league?

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    After watching the Lakers of late, I think Calderon can be a perfect fit for them. Their defense can handle dribble penetration very well with Gasol and Bynum changing shots and that happens to be Jose's weakness. Offensively, they just need a steady hand to get the ball to Kobe without turning it over, the decent outside shooting is a bonus and Jose could also use that high-post very well to get his shot off.

    Throw in a Spanish teammate in Gasol and I find it hard to believe that the Lakers haven't thought about it.

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    I agree with Dave on the PG's Calderon is better than. None of those should really even be that controversial.

    Calderon is a solid starter. He has looked worse this year because he was rusty to start the season and the team's defense was terrible. If the raptors play him less than 32 minutes a game, they are shooting themselves in the foot.

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    Quote malefax wrote: View Post
    I agree with Dave on the PG's Calderon is better than. None of those should really even be that controversial.

    Calderon is a solid starter. He has looked worse this year because he was rusty to start the season and the team's defense was terrible. If the raptors play him less than 32 minutes a game, they are shooting themselves in the foot.
    What I don't understand is the surety of which you're making that claim. Please point to me the time in his NBA career that he's shown he can be a consistent high-quality starter. The only time that comes to mind is January and February of 2008. That's it.

    I am unconvinced that he's as good as people make him out to be, I think he's a system-guy and needs good defensive players around him and an offense which uses his limited skill accordingly. The triangle would be perfect.

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    Malefax, you're saying that Calderon is better than:

    Devin Harris
    Derrick Rose
    Monta Ellis?

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    As a point-guard it depends. Depending on your team you may need your PG to be able to score, in which case Monta Ellis and Devin Harris are better scorers than Calderon. Really though, on a team like the Raptors I would take Derrick Rose over Calderon, but not Ellis/Harris.

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    I compared the numbers that Jarrett Jack has averaged in his past 5 games, wins against sub .500 teams, VS. The opposition’s starting point guard. Afterwards, I looked at Jose Calderon’s numbers from his last 5 winning games against sub .500 teams and then compared the two. Here are my results:

    Jarrett has averaged 6.8 Assists and 11.8 Points. The opposing point guards (Raymond Felton, Rodney Stuckey, Chris Paul, and Devin Harris) averaged 4.6 assists and 12.6 points.

    Jose averaged 6.8 Assists and 16 Points. His opposition (Derrick Rose, Baron Davis, TJ Ford and Gilbert Arenas) averaged 4.8 assists and 18 points.

    The net difference of Points and Assists is that Jack and Jose both averaged 2 assists more than their check. Jack made 0.8 less points, and Jose made 2 less than the opposing point guard. That is a 1 point difference in points scored/given up and no difference in assists between Jack and Calderon. Jack has also averaged 1.6 minutes more than Calderon.

    The guard play is maybe more similar then what some people might try to make it seem. Whether that is good or bad, I don't know. But if people feel Jack is a very capable starter then Jose is too. They both can match up to very capable point guards in the league.

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    Derrick Rose scores 18 points per game by taking 16.5 field goal attempts + 3.7 free throws (TS% of 49.7%). Jose Calderon scores 11.7 points per game by taking 8.8 field goals and 2 free throws. So, by taking 7.7 shot attempts + 1.7 free throw attempts more than Calderon ... Derrick Rose scores an additional 6.3 points. 7.7 FGA + 1.7 FTA for 6.3 points? That's lousy.

    Derrick Rose is a terrific prospect who has the potential to be a top five point guard in the NBA in the near future but in terms of current ability he simply isn't a high quality player. He is a fairly mediocre player overall (average defender, average rebounder, below average passer relative to his position, and a decent scorer) who is a below average starting point guard.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Out of my list ... I'd consider Devin Harris and Monta Ellis as debatable choices.

    Devin Harris more so than Monta because he's shown the capacity to be a very good scorer + very good defender, although not at the same time, nevermind that, he's clearly capable of producing both --Monta hasn't shown anywhere near as much defensive ability, but, to a lesser degree, has shown more rebounding ability.

    Side Note: Monta Ellis is almost as inefficient a scorer as Derrick Rose is. His 25.5 points per game come on 21.6 shots + 6.6 FTs (TS% of 52%) + a gargantuan 4.3 turnovers.

    Anyway, I rated them lower than Calderon because I don't think they put their teammates in a position to succeed offensively which I view as the primary responsibility of a point guard. I think they're below average at that while I'd rate Calderon as very good.

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    Quote Arsenalist wrote: View Post
    I am unconvinced that he's as good as people make him out to be, I think he's a system-guy and needs good defensive players around him and an offense which uses his limited skill accordingly. The triangle would be perfect.
    I think the Triangle offense would be a poor fit for Jose. It would turn him into Steve Blake. He'll still be a good player and have a solid impact on the game but I think it limits him. The Triangle doesn't give the point guard enough responsibilities as a floor general which is Jose's best talent.

    I think Jerry Sloan's + Gregg Popovich's + Flip Saunders' + Larry Brown's offenses would all be ideal fits for Jose Calderon. They all run heavily structured offenses which allow the point guard to make a large amount of the team's decisions offensively (the main difference between them and the Triangle as Jose is concerned).

    That's the type of offensive system that I think Jose would do best in.

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    Quote Dave wrote: View Post
    I think the Triangle offense would be a poor fit for Jose. It would turn him into Steve Blake. He'll still be a good player and have a solid impact on the game but I think it limits him. The Triangle doesn't give the point guard enough responsibilities as a floor general which is Jose's best talent.
    I think Steve Blake sounds about right.

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    Scoring efficiently is only a part of player efficiency. PER is a better measure of overall efficiency. This season Jose's PER is 18.2, and he allows his opponent 23.6, making his net PER -5.4. Derrick Rose's PER is 17.4 but he allows his opponent 15.7 PER, netting +1.7.

    You are right about Rose being an average defender and a slightly above average offensive player. And Jose is a more efficient offensive player. But because he is such a shitty defender Rose, Ellis, Harris (and many others) are much better players.
    Last edited by NewRapCity; Sun Jan 3rd, 2010 at 01:56 AM.

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    Quote NewRapCity wrote: View Post
    @dave

    can i be in your fantasy league?
    What does fantasy value have to do with who you'd want on a real team?
    The best Raptors discussion board is at Raptors Republic.

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