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Thread: Rest Of Season Predictions (Feb 16- Finish)

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default Rest Of Season Predictions (Feb 16- Finish)

    Remaining Game(as of February 16th): 27

    14 Home
    13 Away



    Games Vs. .500 > Teams: Bobcats(2), Nets(3), Pacers, Pistons, Wiz, Warriors, Clippers, Bucks(2), Cavs, 76ers
    Games Vs. .500 < Teams: Heat(2), Bulls(2), Suns(2), Mavs, Hornets, Jazz, Thunder, Nuggets, Magic, Knicks

    PREDICTIONS
    Using Season Win % x Remaining Games: 27 x 0.264 = 7-20
    Using Last Ten Win % x Remaining Games: 27 x 0.1 = 3-24

    My personal feeling based on the remaining opponents is that they should be able to beat the Cavs and Wiz. They should be able to hang with the Nets and Pistons. The Pacers and 76ers should be toss ups. The Bobcats, Warriors, Bucks and Clippers games will be tough to win. Out of those games I see a record of six or seven wins. As for the road games, well, I think that could catch the Bulls, Heat or Suns sleeping in one of their contests, especially as the season drags on. I think they'll lose all their rest with the exception of the Knicks. I think they'll bring it for the Knicks game. That makes me think that out of those games they should be good for one to three wins. Add that up and my best case, worst case predictions are as follows:

    Best case: 10-17 (.370 win%)
    Worst case: 7-20 (.264 win%)

    What do you see for the rest of the way starting on Feb. 16th?
    Last edited by Apollo; Thu Feb 10th, 2011 at 10:07 AM.

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    Super Moderator MangoKid's Avatar
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    I think they'll be worst case scenario. I'm gonna say 7-20.

    Wins will be: Suns, Bobcats, all 3 Nets games, Wizards and Cavs.
    Last edited by MangoKid; Thu Feb 10th, 2011 at 10:23 AM.

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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    I was going to post a similar thread, but I started to think of all the possible variables that could effect the rest of the season, and really, we have NO way of knowing what the rest of the season holds. If guys come back from injuries, then using either of those winning %'s is irrelevant. If we make a trade with the future in mind, than the worst case becomes a whole lot worse. If someone else gets injured then the best and worst are affected as well.

    If EVERYTHING remains status quo, then we could use these %s, and in which case I say we finish the season with around 24 wins.

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    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    I'm not sure on the record. 6-21 would be my guess. Second worst record in the league by end of season.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    I was going to post a similar thread, but I started to think of all the possible variables that could effect the rest of the season, and really, we have NO way of knowing what the rest of the season holds. If guys come back from injuries, then using either of those winning %'s is irrelevant. If we make a trade with the future in mind, than the worst case becomes a whole lot worse. If someone else gets injured then the best and worst are affected as well.

    If EVERYTHING remains status quo, then we could use these %s, and in which case I say we finish the season with around 24 wins.
    The whole fun and challenge of making a prediction is you don't know, you're putting your self on the line.

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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    If EVERYTHING remains status quo, then we could use these %s, and in which case I say we finish the season with around 24 wins.
    Well, the one thing you can count on to remain status quo is the bad defense, so that's why I'd say 7-20 looks just about right.

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    I say 10-17. Being very optimistic here.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    i dont care even if they go 1-26. as long as that 1 is against the heat on the 16th.

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    Nice Thread Apollo;
    I'm going to be a real downer and say 3 more wins; 2 over the nets, and the cavs game. Unfortunetly, if you're a 'bottom of the standings' watcher like I am, those are the 3 games that the Raps need to lose, as they are head-to-head battles for the ping-pong balls.
    "true" fans are going to hate on me for this, but I hope they go 2-25, with both wins over the Heat (might make their pick slightly better)

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    I don't hate you for it but I don't agree with the reasoning. I think what we're seeing in here is unanimous agreement that the Raptors are probably going to continue to be bottom feeders the rest of the way. I'd love to see them play spoilers in one of the last games of the season though. If they're going down they might as well drag some unsuspecting team down with them.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    I don't hate you for it but I don't agree with the reasoning. I think what we're seeing in here is unanimous agreement that the Raptors are probably going to continue to be bottom feeders the rest of the way. I'd love to see them play spoilers in one of the last games of the season though. If they're going down they might as well drag some unsuspecting team down with them.
    ive just lost hope. seeing game after game where they compete for the 1st 3 qtrs then just lose focus on the 4th, kinda frustrating. but if there's a chance for them to still make the playoffs, im all for it. but hitting the bottom and getting a top 3 pick wont be that bad either.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default Anything But 1st Overall

    Based on everything I've been reading, I think them winning the lotto is a bad thing this year. 2006 was the wrong year for them to win it but that was their year. 2006 and 2011 sound a lot alike. There is no consensus #1 choice. There is no one in the top that is separating themselves from the pack. Each pick in top fives of mock drafts come with more question marks than usual. This draft may go down like 2006 where the best player isn't found at the top and whoever lands the top pick is in a can't win situation with the fans in media. That being, they could get the guy they want as low as 5th overall, they know he's probably not going to be a Superstar, they know he's probably not ready to make a big impact but no one really wants to pay the "going rate" to move up into the #1 slot because they don't want to trade their way into the current 1st overall pick holder's situation. If the Raptors win a higher spot in the draft I would much rather it be #2 or #3. The majority of we the fans were not fair to Bargnani in the early stages. We wanted instant gratification and he wasn't offering that like Yao Ming or LeBron James were at the time and so us along with the media were far too hard on him, far too impatient and it created a pressure cooker situation that I feel he wasn't ready for. The Raptors lotto pick, whoever it might be, will enter into a far more nurturing Toronto and NBA if they are not selected #1. Not only does the #1 have to deal with the local fans and media's great expectations but also, I am of the opinion that the American media loves to see Canada's only team fail and they love to kick them when they're down. Some people may find this view ass backwards but whatever. It is what it is. I want the new young gun to enter into the best situation possible and that won't be via the 1st overall selection. That's a bad scenario in a draft where the #1 isn't likely to be any better than the #5.

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    I agree w/ Apollo; The #1 pick may not be worth it this year; I hope the Raps draft 2 or 3. Besides, I think Cleveland has already got the #1spot locked up.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar heinz57's Avatar
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    the #1 pick is totally worth it... you get the pick of the litter.. even if there are no guaranteed superstar, the ability to focus on a target without having to worry about a contingency plan is a good thing..

    the only negative that comes of it is the fan overreaction when the 5th or 6th ends up overachieving and #1 is exactly who he was forecasted to be... then the retards come out of the woodworks with the "i always knew that guy was going to be better than our guy... BC is an idiot!!"

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    Quote heinz57 wrote: View Post
    the #1 pick is totally worth it... you get the pick of the litter.. even if there are no guaranteed superstar, the ability to focus on a target without having to worry about a contingency plan is a good thing..

    the only negative that comes of it is the fan overreaction when the 5th or 6th ends up overachieving and #1 is exactly who he was forecasted to be... then the retards come out of the woodworks with the "i always knew that guy was going to be better than our guy... BC is an idiot!!"
    In most years, you're right. Apollo's point was that this year, the talent you can get at 3/4/5 is probably the same as what #1 will get you. I wouldn't focus on #1 so much anyways; the Cavs have got like a 5 game lead on us for the most ping-pong balls. (and if you're a conspiracy theorist, D Stern will rig it so that CLE for sure gets the top pick)

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    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    I'm all for getting the highest pick possible. The higher the pick the more leverage.

    The only downfall is the guaranteed money is larger against the salary cap.

    Finally, even with the worst record, there is a 75% chance Cleveland won't get the pick.

  17. #17
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote duncan wrote: View Post
    In most years, you're right. Apollo's point was that this year, the talent you can get at 3/4/5 is probably the same as what #1 will get you. I wouldn't focus on #1 so much anyways; the Cavs have got like a 5 game lead on us for the most ping-pong balls. (and if you're a conspiracy theorist, D Stern will rig it so that CLE for sure gets the top pick)
    I don't know why he would be more inclined to rig it for them than the Raptors. The Raptors are the bigger market and are the only international team. Stern wants a global product. They're obviously hurting in the standings almost as much. I don't believe in NBA draft conspiracies though. Most juicy conspiracies have juicy eye witnessed accounts or some sort of "evidence" that supports the theory but doesn't put the nails in the coffin. Draft conspiracy theories have none of that, only jaded fans looking to vent.

    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I'm all for getting the highest pick possible. The higher the pick the more leverage.
    If you study 2006 as a case study you'll see that in a draft with no consensus #1, the #1 pick holder has little to no leverage at all. People offered Colangelo peanuts for the pick in 2006. He would have looked bad trading down and getting little in return. He had no choice but to keep it, take his guy and put up with the crap in papers for year about how his pick was a bust even though he clearly came out from day one and pretty much called the pick a project and said there was no true number one and that his hands were tied. I believe if Bargnani was selected 5th overall he would not be getting as much criticism tossed his way right now. Lots of prestige comes with going #1 and if the player isn't a true stud he's in for a rocky ride in the city the drafts him.

    Quote heinz57 wrote: View Post
    the #1 pick is totally worth it... you get the pick of the litter.. even if there are no guaranteed superstar, the ability to focus on a target without having to worry about a contingency plan is a good thing..
    Yeah, you get pick of the litter but what if the guy at the top of your board can be had at #3 and you know he's going to take years to develop and you know that you're going to look bad by trading down for him and getting peanuts in return? Double edged sword. Look bad on draft day or look bad on opening night. Either way you're taking heat.
    Last edited by Apollo; Thu Feb 10th, 2011 at 03:22 PM.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar heinz57's Avatar
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    if draft conspiracies were real, boston woulda got greg oden.... oh how that woulda been a comical era in celtics history

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    Very good analysis, however even the worst case scenario of 7-20 sounds a little too optimistic. I would say it all depends whether Bobcats, Pacers, Pistons, Bucks, 76ers are still trying to make the playoffs when they play the Raptors. If that`s the case, a record of 5-22 should secure 2nd worst overall (sorry guys but Cavs are unstoppable, no one can come even close to their record). I only wish we can beat the Heat 2 times. On a good shooting night, with no pressure, anything is possible – it wouldn't surprise me if we get a win or two against the top teams.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    I don't know why he would be more inclined to rig it for them than the Raptors. The Raptors are the bigger market and are the only international team. Stern wants a global product. They're obviously hurting in the standings almost as much. I don't believe in NBA draft conspiracies though. Most juicy conspiracies have juicy eye witnessed accounts or some sort of "evidence" that supports the theory but doesn't put the nails in the coffin. Draft conspiracy theories have none of that, only jaded fans looking to vent.

    I don't actually believe in Con. Theories, just putting it out there as a joke. But, if Stern 'could' rig the draft in favor of CLE over TOR, it would be because:
    They lost The Best Player In The League, we just lost the guy who has a crush on him.
    We ARE the bigger/stronger market, hence we have the ability to bounce back quicker with less franchise instability.
    We have the better/more proactive front office, and already have some quality pieces in place on the roster, they don't.

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