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Agent J
Zed: You'll dress only in attire specially sanctioned by Raptors special services. You'll conform to the identity we give you, eat where we tell you, live where we tell you. From now on you'll have no identifying marks of any kind. You'll not stand out in any way. Your entire image is crafted to leave no lasting memory with anyone you encounter. You're a rumor, recognizable only as deja vu and dismissed just as quickly. You don't exist; you were never even born. Anonymity is your name. Silence your native tongue. You're no longer part of the System. You're above the System. Over it. Beyond it. We're "them." We're "they." We are the Toronto Raptors.Last edited by sultkam; Thu Mar 3, 2011, 11:55 PM.
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Apollo wrote: View PostI'm not sure why undrafted players apply. Should I give you the names of every college senior, junior, etc. along with every international player who was not drafted and never played in the league? That would throw off your calculation big time but if we're going to go down this thought line it is required. End of the day the probability is very low for hitting the jackpot in the back end of the draft and digging back further and pulling additional tricks out of your hat doesn't change that.
Secondly, undrafted players MUST be included in the available pool. The word ‘undrafted’ is getting you mixed up. You must focus on the word ‘available’. The original point was that an NBA calibre player (similar to JJ’s level) would not be AVAILABLE at the Miami’s pick. Surely, everybody understands that an undrafted player was available to any GM who was smart enough to recognize the talent level and project into the future in the NBA. That's the whole essence of drafting. So the total pool MUST also include undrafted.
But honestly Apollo, I don’t get where you’re coming from. You applaud Joey for his solid statistical breakdown and scold me for not backing up my ‘general statements’. Yet, when the thorough statistical analysis is now made, it is shown that Joey is off by a factor of 10 in estimating the number of NBA caliber players available at the draft position. Why aren’t you applauding the new data and admitting the old was shoddy? Instead you call the real data “tricks”. Why? The data is the data.
The original statement was by BC that a player of James Johnson’s talent level will not be available by Miami’s pick. I’ve shown that EVERY year there is on average 10+ draftable players available who will make solid contributions in the NBA. At this point, it’s not even debatable. The data speaks for itself. BC is wrong.
I really like James Johnson, but he isn’t a home run either. More like a single + a stolen base, IMO.
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golden wrote: View PostThe odds are not low. Miami's draft position sits at #27. Since 1990, 144 players been drafted at 27th or lower, who have played > 246 games in the NBA (i.e. at least 3 full seasons). They are sorted by win shares, see URL below.
http://bkref.com/tiny/y0zXc
It you make the cutoff at 'useful bench players or better', then somebody like Brian Scalabrine is the cutoff point. That reduces the number of NBA quality players to 123.
Now add 'undrafted players' to the pool of guys who should have been scouted better. I compiled my own list of 46 guys at the end of the post. Feel free to add.
So that makes 123 + 46 = 169 NBA quality players available at 27th draft position or lower. So, over the last 20 years there have been on average (169/20 = 8.45) 8 to 9 players NBA players available to be drafted at 27th or lower.
How do like them apples, Joey?
List of un-drafted NBA players
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Ben Wallace
Fabricio Oberto
Chuck Hayes
Reggie Evans
Carlos Arroyo
Jorge Garbajosa
Mikki Moore
Adrian Griffin
Louis Amundson
Randolph Morris
Slava Medvedenko
Jamario Moon
Janero Pargo
Kelenna Azibuke
Kevin Ollie
Malik Allen
Matt Carroll
Maurice Evans
Michael Curry
Brad Miller
Bo Outlaw
Darrell Armstrong
Jose Calderon
Udonis Haslem
Lorenzo Williams
Marquis Daniels
Damon Jones
Mike James
Andres Nocioni
Chris Childs
Erick Strickland
David Wesley
Earl Boykins
Robert Pack
Charlie Bell
Damien Wilkins
Smush Parker
Ira Newble
Chucky Atkins
Bruce Bowen
Raja Bell
Matt Maloney
Larry Stewart
Tyrone Nesby
Quinton Ross
Troy Hudson
I applaud the effort but I still disagree with your argument. Which is fine. I'm allowed.Last edited by Joey; Fri Mar 4, 2011, 12:00 AM.
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