From my current understanding of the Arenas situation, it appears it is not as serious as made out. It appears to be more a practical joke than a potential life-threatening confrontation. As a result, I think there is pretty much no chance of him being convicted of a felony, suspended for too long, etc. Anyway, assuming this, consider the following key quote from the following article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...0402119_2.html):
"Not so much. In fact, there are people in the NBA who will tell you that when you take everything into consideration, Arenas has the worst contract in the league. About the only way to move him would be to package him with two young players and a first-round draft pick in return for someone else with a bad contract. (No, Tracy McGrady doesn't qualify because his deal is up this year and thus not considered so bad.)"
This seems like a ridiculous steal, no? Arenas is way overpaid, but surely he is worth at least 10 million a year. If he returns to 2005-2006 form, I'd say he is worth 17 million+. So this represents being overpaid by 3-10 million/year, for the next four years.
Since Washington seems to be overreacting, perhaps we should look to dump our bad contracts (Calderon) while picking up young assets (Javale McGee and Blatche), as well as a first round pick. Say, something centered around:
1) Arenas, Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee, 2010 First
2) Jose Calderon, Marcus Banks, Reggie Evans, Amir Johnson
I've not checked if the salaries match up in the trade machine; there might be some minor adjustments needed.
Let's look at the principal rotation players swapped in this trade. Swapping Calderon for Arenas means we go from a guy being paid 4 million too much (paid 9 mil when he should be paid 5), to one being paid 10 million to much, so +6 million in dead weight.
1) We also get 3 young cheap prospects, some of whom are already outpeforming their contracts (e.g., Blatche who is locked up @ 3 million a year for like 4 more years, and is probably worth at least 5 mil), and might blossom into quality players.
2) Arenas might return to his 2005-2006 (3rd, 2nd team all-NBA, top 10 player in the league form). In this case:
a) His contract is worth at least 17 million a year, and so overpaying by like 3 mil is not a big deal.
b) You've paired two top 10 talents (Bosh+Arenas), and have a legitimate top 4 eastern conference title contender for many years.
Basically, the way I've described it above, it seems like an absolute no brainer to do this deal. Are there some risks I am missing? Getting 3 young prospects to swap Calderon's bad contract for GA's bad (but potentially not-so-bad) contract seems more than worth the risk.