View Poll Results: Grade Derozan's Season.

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Thread: Everything Demar Derozan

  1. #4401
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Can't see DD having wanted more years, since we gave him the maximum term allowed.

    The reality is, over the first few years of that extension, his salary didn't matter much - we were in the process of a rebuild. Next year and in 2016 and later is when it will matter - and in 2016 he now has the possibility of getting paid 23M. The whole idea of extending a player like DD long term is to take a gamble he will outplay his contract. Why set up a scenario where if all goes well, he gets to opt out of said contract and hit the open market with his increased value? Even if you retain him, surely he is no longer on the value side of the curve.

    Heck any forethought at all would have shown that summer 2016 would have a big jump in TV money, so it is the LAST season you would want to put a player option in (as the player is almost guaranteed to opt out). The deal was lambasted at the time as being an overpay. If you needed to give him the high pay (again, his value around the league was nowhere near 10M at the time) to lock him in long term, you sure as heck do not let him opt out of being locked in long term.

    If it would have taken more money to get him to commit for the full 4 years, might as well have let him go to restricted free agency and let the market decide his value.
    Bold 1: this can't be emphasized enough. With Bargnani's deal on the books, as well as Fields, and subsequently Gay 2015 was the first opportunity to have any cap space - that would have been 2 years in to his deal.

    Bold 2: the only saving grace is his cap hold is going to be $14.5M. Granted that is still an extra $5-5.5M but less than the $23M he could get based on max salary. A lot of people play the loyalty card but anything can and most likely will happen. Look at Parsons - that was thought to be a slam dunk case of *wink,wink* but as it turned out it was anything but once Parsons/his agent felt slighted by negotiations.

    Bold 3: A lot of current and former and former now current posters here use the benefit of hindsight to justify giving the contract as is in the first place. Well, that logic permits one to say there never should have been a player option for all the reasons DanH said.


    2016 is going to be interesting. The Wizards are already gearing up by hiring Durant's high school coach.
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  2. #4402
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote chico wrote: View Post
    Whatever fans, talking heads, or writers thought of his value, the GM, along with coaches assessments turns out to be more accurate than basing it on "DD was never anywhere near", and we now have him at a steal of a price. Go figure. Management doesn't just base contract offers on the past with young players, but how they project them. They were right. As far as the player option goes, as has already been pointed out, there are 2 sides to a negotiation, with multiple contract details to hammer out, not just player options in a vacuum.
    In that case Colangelo really got reamed.

    Not only did he overpay based on performance, he also gave the agent/player the flexibility of a player option.

    I bet a number of agents cried many tears when Leiweke removed the purse strings from Colangelo's hand.
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  3. #4403
    Raptors Republic Starter torch19's Avatar
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    Not trying to defend Colangelo but there are other factors as well. We needed someone to reup with us for once & DD started that trend. DD has been a highly touted prospect since HS & his agent is a powerful man. These probably factored into the negotiations but I'm jusy glad it's looking like a good contract now. The fact that he hit his incentives show that DD is living up to his contract. I wish it was a team option though. It's like the difference between natural and fake titties.
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  4. #4404
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    Quote mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    In that case Colangelo really got reamed.

    Not only did he overpay based on performance, he also gave the agent/player the flexibility of a player option.

    I bet a number of agents cried many tears when Leiweke removed the purse strings from Colangelo's hand.
    You're off base here. Players coming off rookie deals aren't JUST paid for performance. Potential and longevity are also huge factors that result in them getting higher salaries than comparable UFAs.

    DeRozan was playing at about the same level as a guy like Monta Ellis at the time of his extension. Monta got 8M per year, he is what he is. DeRozan could still improve and especially considering how raw he was coming in, should still improve... plus he still had 8 years before even hitting 30.

  5. #4405
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    Quote torch19 wrote: View Post
    Not trying to defend Colangelo but there are other factors as well. We needed someone to reup with us for once & DD started that trend. DD has been a highly touted prospect since HS & his agent is a powerful man. These probably factored into the negotiations but I'm jusy glad it's looking like a good contract now. The fact that he hit his incentives show that DD is living up to his contract. I wish it was a team option though. It's like the difference between natural and fake titties.
    I am really struggling to make a connection here...

  6. #4406
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    Quote torch19 wrote: View Post
    Not trying to defend Colangelo but there are other factors as well. We needed someone to reup with us for once & DD started that trend. DD has been a highly touted prospect since HS & his agent is a powerful man. These probably factored into the negotiations but I'm jusy glad it's looking like a good contract now. The fact that he hit his incentives show that DD is living up to his contract. I wish it was a team option though. It's like the difference between natural and fake titties.
    For once? Bosh and VC both re-upped in that situation, when they were coming off their rookie contracts as well.

  7. #4407
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    For once? Bosh and VC both re-upped in that situation, when they were coming off their rookie contracts as well.
    Yeah I don't know why people call RFAs re-signing "loyalty". They have basically no choice unless they pick up the QO (which I don't think any star has ever done).

  8. #4408
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    You're off base here. Players coming off rookie deals aren't JUST paid for performance. Potential and longevity are also huge factors that result in them getting higher salaries than comparable UFAs.

    DeRozan was playing at about the same level as a guy like Monta Ellis at the time of his extension. Monta got 8M per year, he is what he is. DeRozan could still improve and especially considering how raw he was coming in, should still improve... plus he still had 8 years before even hitting 30.
    Now you're forgetting DeRozan is a historical anomaly. He is far from the norm. The overwhelming majority of players are what they are by 10,000 nba minutes played. This was a huge argument of mine last summer which eventually was proven false because DeRozan is the very rare exception. There was also very little growth between year 3 and 4.

    DeRozan has never had the play making or scoring ability due to his handles of Monta Ellis.

    Some guys are paid off rookie deals on potential. Most have shown a lot more than DeRozan though especially at the guard and wing. Evans was a former 20/5/5 ROY. Rose MVP. George Allstar. Love stretch 4 with monster scoring and rebounding. Holiday Allstar. Cousins a rare combination of size and talent.

    The only guy I can think of paid on potential of late is favors.

    Guys like Hayward and parsons appear to be new norm with increasing cap but this was not an issue last year. Obviously the rules have changed.

  9. #4409
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    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    You're off base here. Players coming off rookie deals aren't JUST paid for performance. Potential and longevity are also huge factors that result in them getting higher salaries than comparable UFAs.

    DeRozan was playing at about the same level as a guy like Monta Ellis at the time of his extension. Monta got 8M per year, he is what he is. DeRozan could still improve and especially considering how raw he was coming in, should still improve... plus he still had 8 years before even hitting 30.
    DD signed his extension between the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons. At the time, he was coming off a season with a 12.8 PER, a .503 TS%, and a .054 WS/48. He posted 16.7 PPG. PER and PPG are pretty good captures of league perception, and the other two are pretty good captures of how good a player actually is.

    That season, Ellis posted a PER of 17.5, a .509 TS%, and a .059 WS/48. He scored 20.4 PPG. I would argue although they were similar players, Ellis would have been seen league wide as having significantly higher value at the time. He was making 11M that summer.

    Let's look at what similar players from his draft class did in the same time frame (2011-12 season), and what they did in terms of extensions/free agency.

    DeRozan: 16.7 PPG, 12.8 PER, signed extension, got 9.5M per with potential to be 10.1M with incentives
    Jennings: 19.1 PPG, 16.1 PER, went to RFA, got 8M per plus incentives
    Henderson: 15.1 PPG, 14.0 PER, signed extension, got 6M per
    Evans: 16.5 PPG, 16.4 PER, went to RFA, got 10M per plus 1M in incentives

    Now, of the two who went to free agency, let's see how their stats line up in their contract years to what DD's were that year:
    DeRozan: 18.1 PPG, 14.7 PER, would have gotten ???
    Jennings: 17.5 PPG, 16.1 PER, got 8M
    Evans: 15.2 PPG, 18.1 PER, got 10M + incentives

    So, two players who would have been seen as more efficient, with comparable (at least in Jennings' case) scoring totals, similar draft positions (this can impact perception even a few years out from the draft), and none of whom were considered great defensively, got 8M and up to 11M each. That 11M includes the incentives, so should probably be compared to DD's 10.1M total.

    Throw in the fact that another wing player with similar stats from the same draft class who agreed to an extension early got 6M, and it's hard to be too glowing about the extension terms DD got. Henderson got a player option, probably because he agreed to such a cheap deal. Cheap as in 3 to 4 M cheaper than DD's.

  10. #4410
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    Quote mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    Now you're forgetting DeRozan is a historical anomaly. He is far from the norm. The overwhelming majority of players are what they are by 10,000 nba minutes played. This was a huge argument of mine last summer which eventually was proven false because DeRozan is the very rare exception. There was also very little growth between year 3 and 4.

    DeRozan has never had the play making or scoring ability due to his handles of Monta Ellis.

    Some guys are paid off rookie deals on potential. Most have shown a lot more than DeRozan though especially at the guard and wing. Evans was a former 20/5/5 ROY. Rose MVP. George Allstar. Love stretch 4 with monster scoring and rebounding. Holiday Allstar. Cousins a rare combination of size and talent.

    The only guy I can think of paid on potential of late is favors.

    Guys like Hayward and parsons appear to be new norm with increasing cap but this was not an issue last year. Obviously the rules have changed.
    BS

    The Philadelphia 76ers have reached terms on a contract extension with guard Jrue Holiday, the team announced Wednesday night.

    Terms were not disclosed by the team, but sources told ESPN.com that the Sixers and Holiday's camp agreed on a four-year, $41 million deal just before the league's midnight deadline that will take effect starting next season.

    Holiday averaged 13.5 points and 4.5 assists a game last season.
    He wasn't even as good as Derozan when he got that money

  11. #4411
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    DD signed his extension between the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons. At the time, he was coming off a season with a 12.8 PER, a .503 TS%, and a .054 WS/48. He posted 16.7 PPG. PER and PPG are pretty good captures of league perception, and the other two are pretty good captures of how good a player actually is.

    That season, Ellis posted a PER of 17.5, a .509 TS%, and a .059 WS/48. He scored 20.4 PPG. I would argue although they were similar players, Ellis would have been seen league wide as having significantly higher value at the time. He was making 11M that summer.

    Let's look at what similar players from his draft class did in the same time frame (2011-12 season), and what they did in terms of extensions/free agency.

    DeRozan: 16.7 PPG, 12.8 PER, signed extension, got 9.5M per with potential to be 10.1M with incentives
    Jennings: 19.1 PPG, 16.1 PER, went to RFA, got 8M per plus incentives
    Henderson: 15.1 PPG, 14.0 PER, signed extension, got 6M per
    Evans: 16.5 PPG, 16.4 PER, went to RFA, got 10M per plus 1M in incentives

    Now, of the two who went to free agency, let's see how their stats line up in their contract years to what DD's were that year:
    DeRozan: 18.1 PPG, 14.7 PER, would have gotten ???
    Jennings: 17.5 PPG, 16.1 PER, got 8M
    Evans: 15.2 PPG, 18.1 PER, got 10M + incentives

    So, two players who would have been seen as more efficient, with comparable (at least in Jennings' case) scoring totals, similar draft positions (this can impact perception even a few years out from the draft), and none of whom were considered great defensively, got 8M and up to 11M each. That 11M includes the incentives, so should probably be compared to DD's 10.1M total.

    Throw in the fact that another wing player with similar stats from the same draft class who agreed to an extension early got 6M, and it's hard to be too glowing about the extension terms DD got. Henderson got a player option, probably because he agreed to such a cheap deal. Cheap as in 3 to 4 M cheaper than DD's.
    You left out Jrue Holiday who was the most statistically comparable to DeRozan at the time.

    4yr/41M

    EDIT:

    Jennings didn't get an extension, he signed in FA coming off a year where he shot 39% from the field. Henderson was not considered to have the same kind of potential or upside as DeRozan, fact.

    EDIT: I also call BS on Ellis having more value than DeRozan. PER =/= efficiency and Ellis' actual efficiency (TS%) was around the same range as DeRozan's. Not to mention Ellis had already built up a rep over the previous 3 seasons of being a chucker that doesn't help you win (deserved or not). Plus Ellis was not gonna improve at 27 years old, while DeRozan still had upside.
    Last edited by imanshumpert; Thu Jul 17th, 2014 at 02:49 PM.

  12. #4412
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    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    BS



    He wasn't even as good as Derozan when he got that money
    Ok.

    Take the one mistake I had.

    Lol

    However a 6'4" defensive PG with a 6'7" wingspan is usually looked highly upon.

    There are also circumstantial factors such as playing with a ball dominant wing like iguodala at the time.

  13. #4413
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    People forget Ellis turned down 3 year $36m extension in Milwaukee?

  14. #4414
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    Is there a topic more beaten to death and less interesting than DeMar's contract?

  15. #4415
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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    Is there a topic more beaten to death and less interesting than DeMar's contract?
    Everything Bargnani?
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  16. #4416
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    Quote mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    Everything Bargnani?
    I don't know...this is overtaking it I think

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    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    You left out Jrue Holiday who was the most statistically comparable to DeRozan at the time.

    4yr/41M
    DeRozan: 16.7 PPG, 12.8 PER, signed extension, got 9.5M per with potential to be 10.1M with incentives
    Holiday: 13.5 PPG, 14.7 PER, signed extension, got 9.75M with potential to be 10.25M with incentives

    So DD was a less efficient player who scored 4 more points per game and was seen as a defensive liability, and got the same extension (which, based on the other section I listed, was a mistake for the 76ers as well) as a PG who was more effective than DD (on less usage) but was considered to have serious defensive potential.

    EDIT:

    Jennings didn't get an extension, he signed in FA coming off a year where he shot 39% from the field. Henderson was not considered to have the same kind of potential or upside as DeRozan, fact.
    I said that in my post. Please read it. I had two entirely different sections where I showed their performance in their potential extension year and in their potential contract year. Henderson was not considered to have potential... OK. He still performed better than DD did. And was one of only 3 contracts I gave as examples.

    EDIT: I also call BS on Ellis having more value than DeRozan. PER =/= efficiency and Ellis' actual efficiency (TS%) was around the same range as DeRozan's. Not to mention Ellis had already built up a rep over the previous 3 seasons of being a chucker that doesn't help you win (deserved or not). Plus Ellis was not gonna improve at 27 years old, while DeRozan still had upside.
    Uh, yeah I noted that in my post. Again, you don't seem to have read it. I noted that TS% is a better measure of player performance - but that player perception is what drives contract values, and PER and PPG line up much better with player perception around the league than TS% or WS/48 do, in spite of them being better measures of a player's value.

    Ellis developed a reputation of being a chucker who doesn't help you win. In the three seasons leading up to DD's extension:

    Ellis: 19 FGA/36 (26 wins), 18 FGA/36 (36 wins), 18 FGA/36 (17-20 with GSW, 12-9 with MIL)
    DD: 15 FGA/36 (40 wins), 15 FGA/36 (22 wins), 17 FGA/36 (23-43)

    ---

    It boils down to this: of the group that I compare him to, all from his draft class, some extending and some signing as a RFA, all comparable in terms of statistics (and mostly better via PER and comparable or better in PPG, two drivers for league wide perception of player value), the worst case overpayment I could find was Holiday or Evans with about 11M in salary including incentives (one of which was in RFA, one by extension - an extension that had no player option, I might add). So it seems to suggest that the worst that would happen if he went to RFA was to get a slightly more expensive contract (less than 1M more per year), with no player option.

    The only player to get a player option was a player not expected to improve (as you note, Henderson's potential was perceived to be lower) - which is where it makes sense to give a player option - for unexpected improvement. If you expect the improvement, you are shooting yourself in the foot (as the player is guaranteed to opt out). And if you pay more than their performance indicates (DD had similar performance to Henderson and got 4 M more per year), then you are clearly expecting improvement.

    So. We could have let him to to RFA, with the risk of a 4 year, 11M per year contract with no player option.

    We instead locked him in via extension, giving him a 4 year, 10M per year contract with a player option.

    Personally, I'd gladly pay the extra 1M per year to have 30% longer control over the player (and to push their cheap contract past the potential cap boom of 2016).

  18. #4418
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    Quote white men can't jump wrote: View Post
    I don't know...this is overtaking it I think
    In there here and now, ok.

    But not in history.

    I'll tap out on the topic.

    I can't add anything new.

    The dollar value worked out in the Raptors favor the player option most certainly has not. Firmly believe it should have went to restricted free agency but can understand the goodwill and loyalty for the duration of the contract of getting it done early. Once contract ends, take the goodwill and loyalty to the curb.

    I rest my case, your Honour.
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  19. #4419
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    All that to say Colangelo sucked. A large amount of us already knew that. Can the conversation move on to something current? Like DD getting selected for the US B-Ball team camp? Thanks.

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  21. #4420
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    Quote imanshumpert wrote: View Post
    I am really struggling to make a connection here...
    All I meant by that is … either one is nice but it would have been so much better if it was natural … like how it would have been so much better if his contract is a team option. Doesn't really relate except for how I feel about em lol
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