View Poll Results: Grade Derozan's Season.

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    18 26.87%
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    40 59.70%
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    8 11.94%
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Thread: Everything Demar Derozan

  1. #5001
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    Ugh, of course there are estimates used. Literally everything we do is estimates. But the way you speak of estimates, I assumed that you meant ungrounded estimates - if you have a problem with mathematical estimates, then I have a hard time imagining you do indeed use math as much as you say.

    The kind that say All-Star and Team USA DeMar DeRozan is the 17th best SG in the league and that Waiters and Olapido are much better. I'd say that's ignorant of nuances of the game, and totally dependent on complex formulas based on a shit load of estimates and assumptions applied to some imaginary team play.
    Ah, I see, you've completely ignored everything I said. Now I get it.

    If you want to keep presenting those rankings as an evaluation of WARP you are either unable to understand English or being deliberately disingenuous. I've stated, several times, that those rankings are NOT based on WARP, which is a fairly straightforward aggregation stat (probably the lesser of it, WP and WS, but still solid), but based on projections - projections which differ radically from what the past year's WARP tells us about these players. WARP tells us that DD was dramatically better than both Waiters and Oladipo. So why do you use Waiters vs DD vs Oladipo as an argument against WARP?

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  3. #5002
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Ugh, of course there are estimates used. Literally everything we do is estimates. But the way you speak of estimates, I assumed that you meant ungrounded estimates - if you have a problem with mathematical estimates, then I have a hard time imagining you do indeed use math as much as you say.


    Ah, I see, you've completely ignored everything I said. Now I get it.

    If you want to keep presenting those rankings as an evaluation of WARP you are either unable to understand English or being deliberately disingenuous. I've stated, several times, that those rankings are NOT based on WARP, which is a fairly straightforward aggregation stat (probably the lesser of it, WP and WS, but still solid), but based on projections - projections which differ radically from what the past year's WARP tells us about these players. WARP tells us that DD was dramatically better than both Waiters and Oladipo. So why do you use Waiters vs DD vs Oladipo as an argument against WARP?

    I get what you're saying Dan H lol. Do you happen to know what the ranking of the top 10 shooting guards would be if WARP was used correctly and not as a projection? I would love to see what the actual ranking would be.

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    just for further context, the previous year, ESPN projected lowry as #8 PG in the league for the 2013-2014 season using their WARP projections.

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    Not to drag this away from a WARP conversation, but....two observations from being in the states lately. First, listened to a couple of guys on nba radio (isola and stackhouse) and they were dissecting what had gone wrong with the twolves. They talked about drafting Flynn at six when you could have had curry or derozan. Almost in the same breath. Random but we are so used to bringing him down, it was nice to hear an unbiased positive sentiment. Second, more random thought. Went to get a terrible coffee at dunkin donuts. To get into the store you had to pull the oversized "DD" door handles. DD? Dunkin donuts? How did this never become a thing?

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    Quote chico wrote: View Post
    I saw someone comparing Waiters 28 games (half as a sub, half of the other half vs other also-rans playig out the string), against DeMar's full season. Guessing/estimating/assuming how those incomparable stats hold up playing with the same imaginary team, may be okay for building a video game, but it has nothing to do with reality, imo.
    That was me.

    And that was not my point.

    I made a joke how someone else thought Waiters was better than DD than myself (a jab at imanshumpert and a joke of how much of an argument was made earlier this year)

    It was then blown out of proportion by people actually taking the statement seriously and saying that Waiters hasn't done sh*t.

    I noted that closing out last season (28 games is not a small sample size) Waiters produced at a rate better than DD. Implying that if you think Waiter's has done nothing, then DD has also done nothing, which we know to be utter BS.

    Followed by 2 pages of hate....and the implication that I must clearly be insane to suggest even something like Waiters being better than DD....which he currently is not.

    But congrats to DD for making the national team all the same

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  8. #5006
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    Kevin pelton is annoying because he refuses to integrate anything qualitative in his analysis. Every article is just a list of warp. He did the same thing with the draft. Apparently he think a sticking to the state religiously makes his projections more legitimate.
    "Bruno?
    Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
    He's terrible."

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    Hope you're wrong.

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    Quote stooley wrote: View Post
    Kevin pelton is annoying because he refuses to integrate anything qualitative in his analysis. Every article is just a list of warp. He did the same thing with the draft. Apparently he think a sticking to the state religiously makes his projections more legitimate.
    True. Though to be fair he does put plenty of qualifiers in the description. Even in the SG article he mentions that his model would have DD top 10 if he had another good season, so clearly he expects him to do well, he just doesn't override the projections. There's merit to that when most people's projections are nothing but guesswork - introducing his own guesswork, even if it makes sense, into these projections would make them no different than anything else out there.

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    True. Though to be fair he does put plenty of qualifiers in the description. Even in the SG article he mentions that his model would have DD top 10 if he had another good season, so clearly he expects him to do well, he just doesn't override the projections. There's merit to that when most people's projections are nothing but guesswork - introducing his own guesswork, even if it makes sense, into these projections would make them no different than anything else out there.
    Regardless of the math, the qualifiers or the amount of estimating into the formula, any rankings that has DD well behind Waiters, Oladipo and many others for next season, is complete BS. So the formula might be nice, but on it's own, all it proved is that it is skewed towards inexperienced players and is generally not a good indicator of next season projection.

    If he had incorporated his own opinions beyond the math, he might not have stood out from other rankings, but he might actually have produced rankings that are accurate. Better to be right than to stand out in this case.

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    Quote OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
    That was me.

    And that was not my point.

    I made a joke how someone else thought Waiters was better than DD than myself (a jab at imanshumpert and a joke of how much of an argument was made earlier this year)

    It was then blown out of proportion by people actually taking the statement seriously and saying that Waiters hasn't done sh*t.

    I noted that closing out last season (28 games is not a small sample size) Waiters produced at a rate better than DD. Implying that if you think Waiter's has done nothing, then DD has also done nothing, which we know to be utter BS.

    Followed by 2 pages of hate....and the implication that I must clearly be insane to suggest even something like Waiters being better than DD....which he currently is not.

    But congrats to DD for making the national team all the same
    First off, not everyone will pick up on inside digs at banned users (which is quite petty anyway) but you seemed to defend the point so you own it regardless.

    It isn't blowing it out of proportion to accurately state that waiters has yet to produce at the NBA level in a significant way (to paraphrase - he hasn't done shit).

    Implying that 28 games of per 36 projected production is he equivalent of DD's 82 game, 38 MPG is insane. Dismissing Waiters 28 projections is not at all the same as saying DD didn't do shit for his season.

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    Raptors Republic Superstar iblastoff's Avatar
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    wait a minute...imanshumpert is banned?

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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    Regardless of the math, the qualifiers or the amount of estimating into the formula, any rankings that has DD well behind Waiters, Oladipo and many others for next season, is complete BS. So the formula might be nice, but on it's own, all it proved is that it is skewed towards inexperienced players and is generally not a good indicator of next season projection.

    If he had incorporated his own opinions beyond the math, he might not have stood out from other rankings, but he might actually have produced rankings that are accurate. Better to be right than to stand out in this case.
    Fair enough. Keep in mind however that this is a) one case and b) not actually proven incorrect yet. I don't think it will pan out that way either, but DD has shown again and again that he is the exception to quite a few rules. Doesn't mean we should ignore the rules in general. Most players don't see a huge leap in performance at DD's experience level, and if they do they drop back to earth. DD probably won't. Most players make big leaps in their first few years - hence the generous projections for Waiters and Oladipo.

    In this specific case, it looks like the formula is skewed towards inexperienced players - but if the projections had proven to be overly skewed towards inexperienced players in the past, it would have self-corrected. Past results are used in these projections. I this case, I think we are seeing an under appreciation of DD due to his unorthodox learning curve. That's it.

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  18. #5012
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Fair enough. Keep in mind however that this is a) one case and b) not actually proven incorrect yet. I don't think it will pan out that way either, but DD has shown again and again that he is the exception to quite a few rules. Doesn't mean we should ignore the rules in general. Most players don't see a huge leap in performance at DD's experience level, and if they do they drop back to earth. DD probably won't. Most players make big leaps in their first few years - hence the generous projections for Waiters and Oladipo.

    In this specific case, it looks like the formula is skewed towards inexperienced players - but if the projections had proven to be overly skewed towards inexperienced players in the past, it would have self-corrected. Past results are used in these projections. I this case, I think we are seeing an under appreciation of DD due to his unorthodox learning curve. That's it.
    This isn't even an issue about Demar, the whole thing is crap.

    What about Arron Afflalo? Guy is 28 (prime) and put up very good numbers. Solid W/S (5.3) and a high TS% (57.4 - higher than a marksman like Klay Thompson's 55.5 last year). Scored at a higher rate than Thompson, Beal, Olapido. Yet doesn't even make the top 15 (same as Demar) but guys like JR Smith does?

    Point is, the rankings are crap because they are taking a single stat in a vacuum and then plugging estimates for next season with no real basis of reality. No stat can produce like that. If one could, there would be a lot less arguments on this forum. For a true ranking, the writer needs to account for things like production to date, upcoming opportunity (mpg change based on roster), historical trends (sophomore slump, allstar jump after season x, age) and then plain old common sense.

  19. #5013
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    ok we get it. if a stat says lowry is projected 6th PG in the league using warp projections, no one complains. if derozan isn't top 10 SG using the same warp projection, then its all BS.

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    Quote Axel wrote: View Post
    This isn't even an issue about Demar, the whole thing is crap.

    What about Arron Afflalo? Guy is 28 (prime) and put up very good numbers. Solid W/S (5.3) and a high TS% (57.4 - higher than a marksman like Klay Thompson's 55.5 last year). Scored at a higher rate than Thompson, Beal, Olapido. Yet doesn't even make the top 15 (same as Demar) but guys like JR Smith does?

    Point is, the rankings are crap because they are taking a single stat in a vacuum and then plugging estimates for next season with no real basis of reality. No stat can produce like that. If one could, there would be a lot less arguments on this forum. For a true ranking, the writer needs to account for things like production to date, upcoming opportunity (mpg change based on roster), historical trends (sophomore slump, allstar jump after season x, age) and then plain old common sense.
    Afflalo is another example of a player like DD - he had a late breakout year. They are the exceptions. The model doesn't fit for them. Next year it will correct if they prove to be able to maintain it.

    As for that list of things they need to take into account - they do. The entire model is built on what players of a certain age/experience tend to do, historically. So sophomore slumps, past production, etc are all factors in their projection system. That's why DD ranks so low - his first four years were pretty terrible, so the system is hesitant to give too much credence to his breakout year, because historically a breakout season this late is a blip, not a trend starter. Same goes for Lowry - although he is ranked top 10 in PG's, his actual projected WARP is significantly lower than last year's, since surges like that later than a player's rookie scale deal tend to be blips. That's not to say either DD or Lowry will regress - it is just saying that most players in their position did.

  21. #5015
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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    ok we get it. if a stat says lowry is projected 6th PG in the league using warp projections, no one complains. if derozan isn't top 10 SG using the same warp projection, then its all BS.
    Uhm...yeah. I thought this was a raptors board right? We talk about the RAPTORS players. Lowry ranked right about where everyone thought he'd be. Behind the Chris Paul's and westbrooks of the league. However, demar, an all star and team USA player, didn't even make the list and was behind people like dion fucking waiters.

    Why would someone on the RAPTORS board start complaining just because Isaiah Thomas wasn't ranked int he top 10. Just because they got one of the warp predictions corerect doesn't mean they are all correct. They are bs if they think dd is going to be worse than waiters next year...
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    Quote Yabadabayolo wrote: View Post
    Uhm...yeah. I thought this was a raptors board right? We talk about the RAPTORS players. Lowry ranked right about where everyone thought he'd be. Behind the Chris Paul's and westbrooks of the league. However, demar, an all star and team USA player, didn't even make the list and was behind people like dion fucking waiters.

    Why would someone on the RAPTORS board start complaining just because Isaiah Thomas wasn't ranked int he top 10. Just because they got one of the warp predictions corerect doesn't mean they are all correct. They are bs if they think dd is going to be worse than waiters next year...
    You're missing the point - It's the same formula being used for both lists.

    If you think the projection is a waste of time because it has DD as the 17th (or whatever) best shooting guard then you can't turn around and say that you agree on where it put Lowry… or at least you shouldn't.

    You're either throwing out all of the lists or none of them.
    Last edited by Fully; Sun Aug 24th, 2014 at 02:42 PM.

  23. #5017
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    Well I'm done arguing about this. All I know is I'm taking Demar over more than half of the players that were put ahead of him. Since it seems many people on here think Demar is ranked where he should be and will be the 17th (or whatever) best shooting guard next season how about we wait and see? Because arguing isn't doing anything.

  24. #5018
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    But I will say you guys make a good point with the whole we can't be happy with where Kyle and Amir are ranked and then be pissed with Derozan's ranking. The only thing I can say is I think the reason people feel like that is because Kyle and Amir are ranked where everyone expected, so the eye test kinda confirms their ranking and we all know they always rank well with any advanced stat. DD normally doesn't rank well with advanced stats and the eye test doesn't add up with the list. And as someone said it's not just DD there are other guys who should have been ranked higher that weren't.

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    I don't know why everybody's getting so worked up with this ranking... I mean it's a fu...g formula they run through and then add in some other factors. It's not really who they think are the best SGs or whatever. It's kind of like those Hollinger rankings. Everybody's screaming Hollinger is a stupid f..k each week with his bull... rankings, but that man isn't ranking the teams. It's just an automated calculation running on some specifc formula of stats and crunching out a number that gives a score and of course ranks teams accordingly. It's the same shit here. If you really asked those who wrote this article to rank the best SGs in the league, I'm pretty sure Demar would make the top 10 in all of their lists and even the top 5 in some of their lists...

    C'mon just get over with this...

  26. #5020
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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Ugh, of course there are estimates used. Literally everything we do is estimates. But the way you speak of estimates, I assumed that you meant ungrounded estimates - if you have a problem with mathematical estimates, then I have a hard time imagining you do indeed use math as much as you say.



    Ah, I see, you've completely ignored everything I said. Now I get it.

    If you want to keep presenting those rankings as an evaluation of WARP you are either unable to understand English or being deliberately disingenuous. I've stated, several times, that those rankings are NOT based on WARP, which is a fairly straightforward aggregation stat (probably the lesser of it, WP and WS, but still solid), but based on projections - projections which differ radically from what the past year's WARP tells us about these players. WARP tells us that DD was dramatically better than both Waiters and Oladipo. So why do you use Waiters vs DD vs Oladipo as an argument against WARP?
    Hey, the issue isn't about how much I use math, but how it's being manipulated to evaluate basketball players. It's obvious I don't have near the appreciation for reducing evaluation of basketball players down to math "whizzing" of the game as you, but condescending, personal attack comments such as "Ah, I see, you've completely ignored everything I said. Now I get it.", and "you are either unable to understand English or being deliberately disingenuous" lend nothing to understanding or respectful discussion, while being completely inaccurate.

    That said, I'd like to clarify a few things:

    The "way I speak of estimates"? I made a rather simple and straightforward statement that takes no imagination to understand or interpret as some "way I speak". I said, "In simple terms, it's taking a guy's numbers, throwing them in with some imaginary, yet theoretically average teammates, using estimates and assumptions,......". I didn't qualify those estimates or assumptions in any way to imply "ungrounded", but you responded with a flat "There are no estimates or assumptions used either", so I responded with a very long list of examples of that not being true, which supports my original statements about this WARP formula. However "grounded" your mathematical bent says these estimates are (not provided, but another debate not necessary for this debate about basketball, not math), and however normal they are in your mathematical world of "everything we do is estimates", they're still a mass of estimates, piled on top of one another (imo, each time one is piled onto another, then another, the numbers get further and further away from reality), to come up with some number that may impress mathematicians, but has little to do with the nuances of what actually goes on, distinctly for each player, on the basketball court.

    No, I didn't "completely ignore everything you said", but perhaps you need to examine your own understanding of the language, and where it's used has something to do with it. The statement you're responding to here was very clearly in direct response to your "The number crunching is indeed done by math whizzes - the kind that love watching basketball and have a very deep appreciation for the game and it's many nuances.", which you had stated in response to my questioning of the math whizzes' appreciation for the complexities of the game. It was ignoring nothing, but was a somewhat sarcastic and facetious direct response to that statement on it's own. Like, yeah, they're so responsive to the nuances of the game that they publish a projection that says DD is so low on the pole. Something that is so far from reality, that it's very difficult to accept that they understand a single nuance of the game, never mind many.

    Again, the examples of Waiters and Olapido are not the basis of my argument against the value of WARP on it's own, but was used to comment on the "nuances" discussion above. My basis for the disrespect I have for WARP, to basically repeat my original statement in this discussion, is that it uses a ton of estimates and assumptions, piled on top of one another, while ignoring the huge differences in responsibility and defenses faced of each player, to come up with some nebulous number of how that player would perform with some imaginary team of average players. ESTIMATES, ASSUMPTIONS, IMAGINARY, THEORY, AVERAGE are not terms that give me warm fuzzies in evaluating players, given the complexities of the actual game, and the different circumstances players deal with.

    Hey, at the end of the day, my opinion is that it's cute mathematical manipulation of basketball statistics that is obviously amusing to some, but has little place in realistic evaluation of players. You think very much otherwise, but have provided virtually nothing to possibly enlighten me to it's value, while dissing my appreciation for math, my understanding of English language and sweeping declarations that are either groundless to begin with, or backed up with nothing about basketball, and all about math, as I see it.

    I could be wrong, but we're making zero progress toward understanding here. We aren't going anywhere with this, so let's call it a day and agree to disagree, with no hard feelings.

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