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  • enlightenment wrote: View Post
    You are just evading having to face how bad your post was.
    3.2% is a big deal in the NBA.

    When it comes to the corners, no one was comparing anything else and its a red herring to do so. What is wow is the fact that Demar has the ABILITY to hit 3s in the corner at a rate that rivals one of the best 3pt shooters (and on more attempts).

    improving in one area and dropping significantly at the same shot in other areas can't be ignored. thats called cherry picking. in this case, his 3 point shot from everywhere else has dropped significantly. a drop of 4.29% is kind of a 'big deal in the NBA"

    Comment


    • iblastoff wrote: View Post
      improving in one area and dropping significantly at the same shot in other areas can't be ignored. thats called cherry picking. in this case, his 3 point shot from everywhere else has dropped significantly. a drop of 4.29% is kind of a 'big deal in the NBA"
      Well Ill use the term regression to the mean, the fact that he has shown the ability to sink the 3pt shot at a 4.29% better rate in the wings last year, and at a ~20% better rate in the corners compared to the wings, shows to me that his current percentages from the wings is anomalous and the percentages will soon converge on his actual ability.

      What would his percentages be if he hit the wing 3pter as often as last years averages but also with the current improvement on the corners? probably above 33% making him a threat on the 3pt line.
      The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

      Comment


      • Worth noting is shot allocation. Slight regression at the top areas is fine if he's taking far more from the corners, which are his strength.

        His 3pt % has gone down in the areas where it is a more difficult shot, but so has his ratio of attempts of those relative to his corner 3s, a generally higher % shot league wide which he is also shooting a much more efficient rate. I don't see the problem here. Last year he was taking more shots from a worse spot and shooting crappy %s across the board on 3s. This year he's taking more from the corners, and he's hitting those shots at a very nice clip. Looks to me like he's playing with better IQ on O, recognizing the shots from the top are generally not shots he should be taking compared to the corner 3s, and from watching him, I'd wager most of his 3 pointers from all spots are open....or emergency shots (ie. late shot-clock).

        Comment


        • enlightenment wrote: View Post
          Well Ill use the term regression to the mean, the fact that he has shown the ability to sink the 3pt shot at a 4.29% better rate in the wings last year, and at a ~20% better rate in the corners compared to the wings, shows to me that his current percentages from the wings is anomalous and the percentages will soon converge on his actual ability.

          What would his percentages be if he hit the wing 3pter as often as last years averages but also with the current improvement on the corners? probably above 33% making him a threat on the 3pt line.
          Why should regression to the mean and past performance indicate ephemeral changes from the wings but not from the corners?
          "Bruno?
          Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
          He's terrible."

          -Superjudge, 7/23

          Hope you're wrong.

          Comment


          • stooley wrote: View Post
            Why should regression to the mean and past performance indicate ephemeral changes from the wings but not from the corners?
            Because the increase in the corners is above 20%, which is very unlikely to be an anomaly considering he has taken so many of them as well. The decrease on the wings was about 4%, which is much more likely to fall under anomaly territory
            The Baltic Beast is unstoppable!

            Comment


            • DeMar has made strides in his game, no question. But OVERALL his scoring is not one of them. Sure he has increased his corner 3 percentage - awesome! I think he should be taking more of those anyways - makes sense, they are approximately the distance of many of his long 2s above the break anyways and they often come as a result of ball reversals/movement/drive&kick resulting in wide open, uncontested looks.

              HOWEVER, in the age of analytics and advanced stats, lets look at an oldie: FG%. He is shooting 42.7% on the year, that is down 1.8% over last season and just .005 above his dreadful 3rd year. The biggest gripe I have with this is his field goal attempts are actually up 3.2 per game over last year. But you have to take the good with the bad and the good is his free throw attempts are up 2.1 attempts per game. So at least one of those extra 3.2 shots is a drive

              When looking at his shooting percentages, basic and advanced for 2013-14:

              (DeRozan--------Average NBA SG)

              Field goal percentage 42.7%----------- 42.8%
              Two point percentage 44.9%----------- 46.2%
              Three point fg percentage 31.5%----------- 36.7%
              Free throw percentage 79.7%----------- 79.5%
              E field goal percentage 45.3%----------- 49.3%
              True shooting 52.1%----------- 53.7%

              Field goal attempts 23.1-----------17.7
              Three point fg attempts 3.9-----------6.2
              Free throw attempts 9.3-----------4.7


              Compare above to 2012-13:

              (DeRozan--------Average NBA SG)

              Field goal percentage 44.5%----------- 43.0%
              Two point percentage 46.3%----------- 46.8%
              Three point fg percentage 28.3%----------- 35.9%
              Free throw percentage 83.1%----------- 79.7%
              E field goal percentage 45.9%----------- 49.2%
              True shooting 52.3%----------- 53.4%

              Field goal attempts 19.6-----------17.1
              Three point fg attempts 1.9-----------6.0
              Free throw attempts 6.8-----------4.3


              So while so many point out the improvements in the weaker parts of his game, there is little mention of the deterioration in the historically stronger parts of his game.



              Now look at the type of shots he is taking this season:

              (Distance------attempted-----conversion-----% of total shots)

              Less Than 8 ft.------236-----55.1%----- 27.1%
              8-16 ft.------188-----41.5%-----21.6%
              16-24 ft.------302-----39.1%----- 34.6%
              24+ ft.------146-----31.5%-----16.7%

              Now 2012-13:

              (Distance------attempted-----conversion-----% of total shots)

              Less Than 8 ft.----- 401----- 56.1%-----32.6%
              8-16 ft.----- 261----- 39.5%----- 21.2%
              16-24 ft.----- 449----- 41.4%----- 36.5%
              24+ ft.----- 120----- 28.3%-----9.7%

              What I find interesting looking at this is he is taking less shots at the rim (<8ft) yet he has increased his FTA substantially. Also, despite lowering number of long 2s it is still the #1 shot attempt he takes and it is being made at 2.3% less per game. Now I have no issue with a long 2, wide open. The problem is the dribble, dribble, dribble pull up with a hand in your face with 14 seconds on the shot clock or the settling for such a shot in an ISO situation with time winding down.


              My biggest frustration is the lack of consistency in his game. I think that falls more on Casey and the coaches though... or maybe it is other coaches taking opportunities away. We know his corner 3 has improved, we know his post game is improved so why aren't we seeing it consistently? I remember through the first 15 games so many celebrating shooting 40% from 3pt. He has always shown stretches but consistency not so much.



              Anyways, I'm off the "he is what he is" as he has certainly added to his game this year. I even hesitate to call him one dimensional at this point. However he still is first and foremost a scorer and when it comes to that the statistics still show him to be a volume scorer and an inefficient one at that. However the good news is his points per shot is slowly rising. He is now up to 1.22 points per shot.... which is better than the 1.15 he was rocking a short time ago.

              Comment


              • Nice post Matt. I find the disappearance of his post game the most frustrating, especially now that we have Ross in at the 3 to give the Raps more perimeter threats on the kick-out rotations. Feels like one step forward, one step back.
                Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

                Comment


                • Well, we all know DeMar is being asked to fill the role of a primary scorer which he isn't fit to do. Until a true primary scoring option comes along we will have to make to with the inefficency. He's stepped up in other faccets of his game like rebounding, defending and passing so it's safe to say he brings more to the table than he takes away.

                  Comment


                  • Ever notice its the same people making the same statements about what they don't like about Demar's game?? LOL It's quite funny hearing all the "constructive criticism." I guess Demar must be doing something right considering he's an all-star this year. But but....

                    Comment


                    • special1 wrote: View Post
                      Ever notice its the same people making the same statements about what they don't like about Demar's game?? LOL It's quite funny hearing all the "constructive criticism." I guess Demar must be doing something right considering he's an all-star this year. But but....
                      I don't understand this line of thinking.
                      Yes, its a forum meant to express opinions and this is your opinion.
                      But your opinion is that other people should not express theirs.
                      "Bruno?
                      Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                      He's terrible."

                      -Superjudge, 7/23

                      Hope you're wrong.

                      Comment


                      • stooley wrote: View Post
                        I don't understand this line of thinking.
                        Yes, its a forum meant to express opinions and this is your opinion.
                        But your opinion is that other people should not express theirs.
                        This is what happens when players' moms join forums...

                        Comment


                        • special1 wrote: View Post
                          Ever notice its the same people making the same statements about what they don't like about Demar's game?? LOL It's quite funny hearing all the "constructive criticism." I guess Demar must be doing something right considering he's an all-star this year. But but....
                          Here's, I guess, my gripe with Demar.

                          He's a great basketball player with all the talent in the world. Pretty shot, great athlete, hard worker, nice guy, etc.
                          But I don't think those talents are used to their full extent to help the team win (as pointed out by Matt52), for whatever reason.

                          So, I guess, we both agree on Demar.
                          But we don't agree on his contribution to the Raptors.
                          I think that with his talent, he should be doing more.
                          "Bruno?
                          Heh, if he is in the D-league still in a few years I will be surprised.
                          He's terrible."

                          -Superjudge, 7/23

                          Hope you're wrong.

                          Comment


                          • imanshumpert wrote: View Post
                            Stephen Curry from corner 3: 21-51 (41.1%)
                            DeMar DeRozan from corner 3: 25-59 (42.3%)
                            Ummm, small sample size, much?

                            Consider if Curry made two more of those shots, and if DD missed two more. Over the entire season that's more than a reasonable variance. 23-51 comes to .450; 23-59 comes to .390. Not really comparable.

                            My point is not that Curry has performed better from there (he hasn't), but if you look at his shooting numbers overall, it is clear that the similarities between the two from the corners are more likely a sample size and variance coincidence rather than a true comparison of their "threat level" from that location. Saying nothing of how many more open shots from there DD gets compared to the most respected 3 point shooter in the game.
                            twitter.com/dhackett1565

                            Comment


                            • stooley wrote: View Post
                              Here's, I guess, my gripe with Demar.

                              He's a great basketball player with all the talent in the world. Pretty shot, great athlete, hard worker, nice guy, etc.
                              But I don't think those talents are used to their full extent to help the team win (as pointed out by Matt52), for whatever reason.

                              So, I guess, we both agree on Demar.
                              But we don't agree on his contribution to the Raptors.
                              I think that with his talent, he should be doing more.
                              Or doing the exact same, but more efficiently.

                              As has been said above, it's not all on DeRozan either. DC deserves some of the blame for drawing up too many plays that call for DeRozan to be in a position to make bad decisions (ie: settle for so many long 2's) and/or not be held accountable, while calling too few plays to put DeRozan in the position to score more efficiently (ie: corner 3's and post-ups, as the stats show him to be far more efficient with).

                              Furthermore, if it's unfair for him to be put in a #1 position, then it speaks to the need for this team to retool and bump DeRozan down into the #2 scorer slot (the 'how' is an entirely different question).

                              It really comes down to this roster (not just DeRozan) being utilized better, to play to their natural strengths more often, play as a team more effectively and eliminate the offensive inefficiencies - DeRozan's usage is magnified because he's the #1 option and is marketed as the face of the franchise.

                              Comment


                              • I think DeRo is doing fantastic this season. I feel he has really matured as a scorer and playmaker and I expect him to get better. I also feel he isn't a bad #1. The bigger issue is that outside of Lowry, we have no other consistent scorer on this team. We have a #1 (maybe not the ideal #1), a #2 and then everyone else. When, or if, JV improves that 3 man combo would be pretty damn good I thinks.

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