Everything Derozan

[DanH]

Best Shooting Guards in the NBA Today Lists: DeMar deRozan:

http://www.deseretnews.com/top/3245/...NBA-today.html (7th)

http://www.nba.com/magic/gallery/coh...2014-15-season (5th)

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holli.../_/position/sg (9th)

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/to...ooting-guards/ (5th)

Honestly, I searched "Top NBA Shooting Guards" and included all from 2015 (omitted none). Until I came across the following site - admittedly from December, 2014 - but which has one NBA writer asking a bunch of NBA writers to name their NBA's top three shooting guards:

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/1..._12_facebook_L

DeRozan was quite regularly selected ... and those writers who didn't include DeMar in their top three often mentioned him as one of a couple of possibles, pushing their way in.

Now I know the Raptors had a hot start last year, and that likely affected these (And then DeMar got injured, came back, but then Kyle got injured - and DeMar's back-ups were sieves). Anyway, the writers added a few comments you can look at. But to suggest he's "average" has to be a stretch, for me.

[And that's without a " step" - either a significant improvement because of health, an improved 3-pter, a better team around him and coaching, or combination of such things.]

And that is not just my opinion

I don't think anyone has argued that DeRozan isn't perceived as one of the top SG's in the NBA. In fact, that is the very reason so many want to trade him - because they believe his return in a trade, even at this point on an expiring deal, would be very good, and if you accept what advanced stats tell us about DeRozan, that good return should well outweigh his contributions on the court.

[Wild-ling#1]

I don't think anyone has argued that DeRozan isn't perceived as one of the top SG's in the NBA. In fact, that is the very reason so many want to trade him - because they believe his return in a trade, even at this point on an expiring deal, would be very good, and if you accept what advanced stats tell us about DeRozan, that good return should well outweigh his contributions on the court.

Perhaps you've noted that I've consistently conceded that anyone following your advice might well be able to out-perform the market. I hope you can accept that I've not been engaging in mere politesse or diplomacy in conceding this, Dan.

But I think that if you (and especially you - you have influence here) will concede, in turn, that NBA writers are likely, most often, arriving at their published conclusions with substantial knowledge of the information contained in all the metrics we look at, then I think we might be able to nudge this thread toward rationality.

No one has the answers. We all have much the same facts. We can interpret/weight those facts differently, but rationally ... and arrive at markedly different conclusions. Which can be stimulating. informative. Fun.

But the words "garbage" and "silly" and the like ... and the positing of absolutes in the putting forward of opinion, are anathema to the health of the present discussion.

(I think)

[JWash]

I don't think anyone has argued that DeRozan isn't perceived as one of the top SG's in the NBA. In fact, that is the very reason so many want to trade him - because they believe his return in a trade, even at this point on an expiring deal, would be very good, and if you accept what advanced stats tell us about DeRozan, that good return should well outweigh his contributions on the court.

I really don't think this is the argument we've been having.

I don't have any issue with trading DeRozan if it means getting a better or similar caliber player and/or packaging him for a star. My issue is shortchanging ourselves on him because of his impending free agency. That has been the debate. We don't have people suggesting trading DeRozan for Derrick Favors, we have people suggesting replacing DD with guys like Nick Young, dealing him for a mid 1st, dealing him for prospects who are yet to show anything, etc.

That is my #1 problem, that people are essentially willing to shortchange themselves on him to get rid of him. That's just not Masai's M.O.... at all. If we're trading a top SG in the league (whether that's perceived or real, doesn't really matter), we better be getting a lot of value back. You maximize value in trades by looking at the player's value to other teams, not whether you don't like him or don't think he fits with what you're doing. If Masai traded like the latter, he would've dealt Bargs with picks for nothing, and same with Rudy. "Oh shit, Melo wants out, let me just trade for whatever I can get since he's gone anyway instead of fleecing the Knicks".

[Wild-ling#1]

I really don't think this is the argument we've been having.

I don't have any issue with trading DeRozan if it means getting a better or similar caliber player and/or packaging him for a star. My issue is shortchanging ourselves on him because of his impending free agency. That has been the debate. We don't have people suggesting trading DeRozan for Derrick Favors, we have people suggesting replacing DD with guys like Nick Young, dealing him for a mid 1st, dealing him for prospects who are yet to show anything, etc.

That is my #1 problem, that people are essentially willing to shortchange themselves on him to get rid of him. That's just not Masai's M.O.... at all. If we're trading a top SG in the league (whether that's perceived or real, doesn't really matter), we better be getting a lot of value back. You maximize value in trades by looking at the player's value to other teams, not whether you don't like him or don't think he fits with what you're doing. If Masai traded like the latter, he would've dealt Bargs with picks for nothing, and same with Rudy. "Oh shit, Melo wants out, let me just trade for whatever I can get since he's gone anyway instead of fleecing the Knicks".

Funny. I understood you were taking the position: that DeMar is (without giving him credit for intangibles, etc.) simply one of the top SG's in the NBA. And, as such, it is simply reasonable to consider giving him a "Max" deal ... while still hoping for a substantial loyalty discount.

(I'm pretty bloody sure that's DeMar's position. Just what does #ProveEm mean, anyway?)

And I have understood others to be saying that while some (misguided persons) think DeMar is a top SG, he simply isn't. And we should trade him (preferably to someone who is under the same delusion). Or offer him around $14M or so (which I feel people know won't sign him - will insult him in fact. Kind of insults me, in fact).

And the reason the doubt irks me is another "funny thing".

Because I think that when DeMar tweets "#ProveEm" - I don't think he's talking to doubters in the NBA media, largely. Or his peers. Or league GM's. Or the US team selection folks. The sad bit - the frustrating bit, for me - is that I actually think he - the guy who has "loyalty" tattooed on his forearm - is talking to folks closer to home ... our homes. His "fan-base".

But, anyway, ok, if you say so, JWash. Guess I had this all wrong. Carry on.

[Snooch]

problem with trades that some posters are slagging on is that they look at idividual players on the return and fail to look at combinations of assets, or futures, or most importantly fit into a style that is simply better.

Second, saying that you can only trade a player in a package for a better player or trading a player for a better players individually is seriously flawed. First of what team is going to trade a better player for a guy who is entering a new contract, who by your accounts Jwash, is not as good as them.

Third, Just because you cannot see any possible deal in which moving Demar cannot or does not improve the team outside of trading him and a pick for lebron james, certainly does not mean it doesnt. And as ALL ADVANCED METRICS show us, he IS a very mediocre talent whose only above the average skillset is getting to the line. Hell even all the articles that Wildling posted show that sports writers dont put him in the top three at his position, which is currently being fielded by a 76 year old kobe, a 59 year old wade a 345 year old manu, and guys like courtney lee, gerald henderson, monta ellis etc....and he is barely top 5 when ranked against that competition...................let that sink in......

[DanH]

Well, one thing is that DeRozan, when he tweets Provem, is definitely talking to the media. The two most prominent occurances have been after Hollinger predicted 33 wins for the Raptors (the year they traded for Rudy Gay in January) and recently when the Raptors were positioned 6th by ESPN's predictions. There have been other instances with ESPN's top 500 list, lists of top back courts, etc.

[DanH]

You won't hear me argue for selling DD for scraps. I'd rather Masai do his darnedest to get DD on as much of a discount as possible then trade him later for a nice return than rush a trade and get a bad asset return. My advocacy of a trade for DD is because even now I think he is worth a good deal.

The only scenario where a trade of DD for lesser value makes sense is if there has been communication with DeMar that he won't re-sign (or is going to take a max-or-I-walk stance). Then you have to maximize the asset. Or I guess if you are extremely confident of landing a guy in free agency that you'd rather have than DD - but I can't see how you could be particularly confident.

Anyway, I thinks the arguments about replacing DD with a Nick Young are simply a demonstration of the value some posters feel he brings (and, sadly, a commentary that is supported pretty well by various advanced stats). Not a suggestion that we actually add a Nick Young to replace him - more a statement that IF we are going to have a guy like that (high usage, low efficiency, below average passing, below average defender) we have cheaper options. Of course the ideal is not to have a guy like that at all (as I described it). That's the guy DD was last year, and most years of his career. 2013-14 suggested there might be more to him - but sadly we have only the one season to give us hope, and NBA history is littered with guys who never managed to replicate a season of fleeting success.

[Nilanka]

I like to periodically check in, make sure people are still coming up with creative ways to discredit DeRozan. And let me just say that the "he's been overpaid based on win shares" angle did not disappoint.

But seriously, we are 10,000 posts in on basically the same argument, mainly from the same people. The time to worry about any type of repetitive pattern in this thread was literally years ago.

Oh don't worry, this thread will never disappoint you with crazy talk.

Some new people, but yes, same conversation for years now.

This thread is a mere drop in a bucket compared to the abyss that was the "Everything Bargnani" thread.

[mcHAPPY]

This thread is a mere drop in a bucket compared to the abyss that was the "Everything Bargnani" thread.

Bargs is tupac

lol


oh multipaul - I hope you're in good health.

[Axel]

This thread is a mere drop in a bucket compared to the abyss that was the "Everything Bargnani" thread.

I wonder how multipaul feels about Demar?

[Axel]

Bargs is tupac

lol


oh multipaul - I hope you're in good health.

Lol same thought at the same time.

Not sure that is a good sign

[Snooch]

It all boils down to if you believe that all advanced metrics and history itself is correct and that Demar has basically reached his peak as a player(this is not unreasonable as evidenced by incremental increases in certain metrics which show more of a fine tuning as opposed to outright improvement) and that last season in particular was about the height of his career( again 6 years in the league, with one above the slightly average season statistically)
So therefore you move him while value is high, attain assets you feel are better suited overall and maintain maximum flexibility moving forward in hopes of obtaining a superstar and a championship.

or

You roll the dice and hope that even though all advanced metrics show otherwise, that Demar will either take a huge step forward and become a legit NBA superstar entering his 7th year and pay him a massive part of teams capspace, or, hope that he improves and that in a series of bench clearing, futures trading moves you can create enough space and make a move for a superstar and hope that Demars skillset meshes with that guy.



To me, the second seems alot riskier cause it is dealing with alot of unknowns. I am not opposed to dealing in the unknown, but the fewer the better. And 1) Hoping demar becomes a superstar, 2) hoping you can make enough trades to gut your roster enough to gain capspace, 3) hoping a superstar likes what is left on the team enough to come, or, hoping team will trade for what we have, and 4) hoping that the pieces you have left work and it doesnt turn into a NYK type of team

[JWash]

My stance on DeMar is keep him unless you can get something better or something equal for cheaper.

[Wild-ling#1]

You won't hear me argue for selling DD for scraps. I'd rather Masai do his darnedest to get DD on as much of a discount as possible then trade him later for a nice return than rush a trade and get a bad asset return. My advocacy of a trade for DD is because even now I think he is worth a good deal.

The only scenario where a trade of DD for lesser value makes sense is if there has been communication with DeMar that he won't re-sign (or is going to take a max-or-I-walk stance). Then you have to maximize the asset. Or I guess if you are extremely confident of landing a guy in free agency that you'd rather have than DD - but I can't see how you could be particularly confident.

Anyway, I thinks the arguments about replacing DD with a Nick Young are simply a demonstration of the value some posters feel he brings (and, sadly, a commentary that is supported pretty well by various advanced stats). Not a suggestion that we actually add a Nick Young to replace him - more a statement that IF we are going to have a guy like that (high usage, low efficiency, below average passing, below average defender) we have cheaper options. Of course the ideal is not to have a guy like that at all (as I described it). That's the guy DD was last year, and most years of his career. 2013-14 suggested there might be more to him - but sadly we have only the one season to give us hope, and NBA history is littered with guys who never managed to replicate a season of fleeting success.

The only way, I think, that Masai gets DD on a discount is if the deal comes with assurances that he won't then be moved out at the earliest convenience. And speaking of "hope": I hope Masai isn't a guy who would renege on such assurances. I believe that's a part of team-building, too.

And it's not just Morris who analogizes to "family" in the sports team context. Nice to hear R.A. Dickey talking about how the Jays win last night seemed like a family affair ... though most agree chemistry matters much more in basketball than baseball.

So "yes". I hope DeMar signs a contract akin to what JV just did. If he doesn't, the "loyalty" thing is less relevant, maybe.

But it's not just 2013-14 that gives us cause to believe in DeMar's abilities. Though I'm new here, I understand people have bet against him before now. I think his character and ambition, and the improving group around him will help. The opportunities for growth he gives himself (in work-outs with Harden and co., US national team camps and so on) are also useful. I just hope he stays healthy.

Anyway, I've heard the stats-based arguments. I want to see him play, and the team perform, well into 2015-2016, before even beginning to drawing any firm conclusions. And I'm hoping for the best - for him and for us.

[Wild-ling#1]

My stance on DeMar is keep him unless you can get something better or something equal for cheaper.

"Better" .... "equal" ... "cheaper" .... Okay, then. Thanks for clearing that up.

(Oh - and let's not leave out our appreciation your vote of confidence!)