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  • golden wrote: View Post
    I made this same argument in support of Demar last year. Same thing with Allen Iverson. There are solid stats to back that up by Dean Oliver (Basketball on Paper).

    But there's a massive dropoff between guys like Jordan and Lebron, who can maintain > 120 ORTG efficiency @ > 30% USG, and Kobe @ ~110. The reality is that Kobe is in the Carmelo Anthony tier, offensively, but he's had HoF teammates and a HoF coach help him win.

    I argued last year, that Demar at 28% USG and 110 ORTG was top 15 elite in the NBA last year, despite the low FG%. This year, DD's at 28/100. That's really, really bad. And it is hurting a team that does have other options. So, you have to ask yourself: what's happened since last year? Possible answers:

    1) The league has adjusted to Demar, and he (and Casey) don't have any counters.
    2) Last year was an abberation (*shudder*)
    3) Demar really thinks he is "the man", like Kobe
    4) DD is just not a smart player
    5) Casey is telling him not to pass, drive the ball and try to get fouled
    6) Your guess is as good as mine
    Oh man, Kobe is in the same tier as Melo? Kobe has a career 24.4 assist% and Melo has a 15.9%. That's the value of drawing all the double teams: passing, which Melo never learned to do. Kobe made 12 all-defensive teams (probably deserved 8 or 9)... Melo never made one.

    We agree about everything else. Dean Oliver's skill curves are really important to consider when talking about volume scoring.

    As for the reasons behind DeMar's drop-off, it's probably all the things you listed except for 2. It didn't feel like an aberration, it felt like he was playing smarter, and within himself, and now ego and injury and whatever else have causes him to regress.

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    • You guys say things, and then when I call you out on it....I'm the laughing stock! Ya right!

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      • Scraptor wrote: View Post
        Oh man, Kobe is in the same tier as Melo? Kobe has a career 24.4 assist% and Melo has a 15.9%. That's the value of drawing all the double teams: passing, which Melo never learned to do. Kobe made 12 all-defensive teams (probably deserved 8 or 9)... Melo never made one.

        We agree about everything else. Dean Oliver's skill curves are really important to consider when talking about volume scoring.

        As for the reasons behind DeMar's drop-off, it's probably all the things you listed except for 2. It didn't feel like an aberration, it felt like he was playing smarter, and within himself, and now ego and injury and whatever else have causes him to regress.
        Kobe vs. Melo is a good example of perception vs. reality, IMO. If you believe in the Dean Oliver stuff, then you would accept that ORTG takes into account other things like offensive rebounding, where Melo is clearly superior. On a overall career basis, sure, Kobe is ahead of Melo, but not by lot. Just cherry picking for a second: if we take Melo 5 seasons with the Knicks, he's at 110 ORTG @ 33% USG. Kobe is at 111 ORTG @ 31.8% USG for his career. That's pretty darn close, offensively.

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        • Scraptor wrote: View Post
          This is a solid list but I think Duncan gets in ahead of Kobe/LeBron based on current achievements. Also I personally put KAJ/Russell above Magic and Oscar but really after Jordan it's all debatable.
          Man, I'm not even a big Lebron fan. But he's gotta be better than just sneaking in to the top 10. He's basically the perfect basketball player. Amazing scorer, amazing ball handler, amazing court Vision and IQ. Quick strong, outrageously athletic, built like a middle weight boxer.

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          • Plant me firmly in the "Kobe is not a top 10 player of all time" camp. Shit, I don't even know if he's top 20. Does he have the accolades? Sure...but you can't just go by accolades since those are obviously situation dependent.

            I mean, just in his era, was he even a top 5 guy you'd want to build around? I'd put Shaq, Duncan, Garnett and LeBron all easily ahead of him. Maybe even McGrady. Dirk might be debatable too.

            *And I hate Garnett, and shit on McGrady all the time. But if you were asked to pick one player from that era to build around, I could see all those guys being favoured...Dirk's probably the biggest stretch, but that still puts Kobe around 5th or 6th at best in his own era to me.
            Last edited by white men can't jump; Fri Feb 27, 2015, 06:26 PM.

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            • Interesting thread.

              Kobe. Melo. Assholes.

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              • big boi wrote: View Post
                Man, I'm not even a big Lebron fan. But he's gotta be better than just sneaking in to the top 10. He's basically the perfect basketball player. Amazing scorer, amazing ball handler, amazing court Vision and IQ. Quick strong, outrageously athletic, built like a middle weight boxer.
                If he were as selfish as Wilt he'd put up monstrous numbers constantly. Instead he gets criticized for trying to figure out how to play the right way. Part of the challenge is that he can literally do everything - so many other guys who want to help their team just have to focus on the one or two things they do really well. LeBron gets to decide if attacking the basket, spreading the floor, posting up, playing like a PG, or defending positions 1-5 is what his team needs at any given moment. It's crazy.
                "We're playing in a building." -- Kawhi Leonard

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                • big boi wrote: View Post
                  Man, I'm not even a big Lebron fan. But he's gotta be better than just sneaking in to the top 10. He's basically the perfect basketball player. Amazing scorer, amazing ball handler, amazing court Vision and IQ. Quick strong, outrageously athletic, built like a middle weight boxer.
                  If you were starting a team today he'd probably be like top 3 at worst. But these conversations are generally about the whole body of work, and LeBron's is unfinished.

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                  • golden wrote: View Post
                    Kobe vs. Melo is a good example of perception vs. reality, IMO. If you believe in the Dean Oliver stuff, then you would accept that ORTG takes into account other things like offensive rebounding, where Melo is clearly superior. On a overall career basis, sure, Kobe is ahead of Melo, but not by lot. Just cherry picking for a second: if we take Melo 5 seasons with the Knicks, he's at 110 ORTG @ 33% USG. Kobe is at 111 ORTG @ 31.8% USG for his career. That's pretty darn close, offensively.
                    This is why i HATE numbers. I don't even know what ORTG or USG means. But watching Kobe and Melo play. It's NOT EVEN CLOSE. Kobe is a 100x better player than Melo.
                    Mamba Mentality

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                    • golden wrote: View Post
                      Kobe vs. Melo is a good example of perception vs. reality, IMO. If you believe in the Dean Oliver stuff, then you would accept that ORTG takes into account other things like offensive rebounding, where Melo is clearly superior. On a overall career basis, sure, Kobe is ahead of Melo, but not by lot. Just cherry picking for a second: if we take Melo 5 seasons with the Knicks, he's at 110 ORTG @ 33% USG. Kobe is at 111 ORTG @ 31.8% USG for his career. That's pretty darn close, offensively.
                      It's an even better example of making stats fit the hypothesis

                      Kobe's career stats include his late-stage drop off, which incidentally is probably contributing a lot of recency bias to how Kobe is being remembered. If we're going to compare accurately, let's compare them at ages 26-30: Melo 110 and Kobe is 114.

                      And that's setting aside the fact that Kobe was the superior defender by a country mile.

                      It's reductionist to say they are in the same tier because they are both volume scorers, and that's why analytics end up getting a bad name.

                      But even still.... WS/48, peak win shares, Box +/-, VORP.... Kobe wins them all.

                      Kobe may not make the cut for top 10, but he's for sure in the top 15-20. When all is said and done I doubt Carmelo would even make the top 50.

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                      • Scraptor wrote: View Post
                        This is a solid list but I think Duncan gets in ahead of Kobe/LeBron based on current achievements. Also I personally put KAJ/Russell above Magic and Oscar but really after Jordan it's all debatable.
                        I would say debatable to have Jordan at 1...

                        The Mount Rushmore is Jordan, Magic, Bird and Oscar Robertson
                        9 time first team all-RR, First Ballot Hall of Forum

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                        • Scraptor wrote: View Post
                          It's an even better example of making stats fit the hypothesis

                          Kobe's career stats include his late-stage drop off, which incidentally is probably contributing a lot of recency bias to how Kobe is being remembered. If we're going to compare accurately, let's compare them at ages 26-30: Melo 110 and Kobe is 114.

                          And that's setting aside the fact that Kobe was the superior defender by a country mile.

                          It's reductionist to say they are in the same tier because they are both volume scorers, and that's why analytics end up getting a bad name.

                          But even still.... WS/48, peak win shares, Box +/-, VORP.... Kobe wins them all.

                          Kobe may not make the cut for top 10, but he's for sure in the top 15-20. When all is said and done I doubt Carmelo would even make the top 50.
                          Melo is not even in my top 100 either. But strictly offensively, Melo is about as efficient and attracts just as much attention as Kobe. Kobe was pretty good on defense in the Shaq-Kobe era for sure, but he was vastly over-rated in the Kobe-Gasol-Bynum era, where Artest carried the load on wing D. So said JVG, so it must be true (appeal to authority). lol.

                          Edit: WS/48 isn't perfect either. You notice in 2005-06, Kobe's WS/48 drops like 60 pts after he loses Shaq as a teammate, then jumps up another 60 pts after Gasol joins him. Again, my point is that Kobe has benefited tremendously by the situation and opportunity that was presented to him (and took full advantage of it, to his credit). Better players IMO, like KG, weren't so lucky.
                          Last edited by golden; Fri Feb 27, 2015, 08:14 PM.

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                          • Scraptor wrote: View Post
                            If you were starting a team today he'd probably be like top 3 at worst. But these conversations are generally about the whole body of work, and LeBron's is unfinished.
                            Even if he doesn't win another championship, Lebron should end up in the top 7 all-time, at worst. He wasted a lot of time in his first go-around with the Cavs, when Danny Ferry was learning how to be a GM. Again, perception of legacy seems to be heavily colored by opportunity. With a better team and a couple more chips, he'd already be in the conversation with MJ for #1 all-time.

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                            • big boi wrote: View Post
                              Man, I'm not even a big Lebron fan. But he's gotta be better than just sneaking in to the top 10. He's basically the perfect basketball player. Amazing scorer, amazing ball handler, amazing court Vision and IQ. Quick strong, outrageously athletic, built like a middle weight boxer.
                              He's bigger than a heavyweight boxer.
                              You come at the King, you best not miss.

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                              • Carmelo on the same tier as Kobe? Now I've heard it all.

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