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  • iblastoff wrote: View Post
    what exactly is a players USG% skill level cliff? and i don't get how an average player taking more possessions will drop below league average efficiency. wouldn't that apply to any average player over a stretch of games then? or does it have to be within a single game? i don't get how that makes sense.
    Its the cliff were all gonna jump off after another 30 pages on this thread hahaha

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    • iblastoff wrote: View Post
      what exactly is a players USG% skill level cliff? and i don't get how an average player taking more possessions will drop below league average efficiency. wouldn't that apply to any average player over a stretch of games then? or does it have to be within a single game? i don't get how that makes sense.
      Actually, I used a little bit different terminology - it's more like a USG ceiling, but the same basic idea if you flip the XY axis on efficiency vs. Poss%. If you go back to the Dean Oliver book link, he explains how he painstaking plotted player efficiency (ORTG) vs. Poss% (USG) and he found that all players had a characteristic 'skill curve', which featured a USG ceiling, which when the player exceeded that ceiling, his ORTG plummeted.

      For high usage players, in simple, non-geek terms, it just means how efficiently a player can continue score when the other team knows that he's taking the majority of the shots and keying on him. It also provides a strong indication of how dominant a player is at scoring using his strengths (e.g. Shaq in the post) and/or the variety of ways a guy can score (e.g. Kobe.. FT, post, slash, 3's, etc...).

      On the flip side, there are players like Tyson Chandler who always have amazing efficiency, but extremely low USG. That's because they have such a limited number of ways to score. In the case of Chandler (career USG ~ 13%), he needs to play with a guy like Melo or Dirk, who can take those extra possessions (7% USG gap), because if Chandler starts taking more shots outside of his comfort level, it won't be pretty, and his ORTG will plummet (like a a cliff). Kind of like when Amir starts to take those threes. Players with high USG ceilings, even at even league average ORTG are extremely valuable.

      Comment


      • DanH wrote: View Post
        The suggested trend is that players with higher usage tend to have lower ORTG's, due to the larger volume of shots meaning they are likely taking the more difficult shots (end of clock, contested shots when the offense doesn't generate a good scoring chance).

        League wide this does not bear out (almost no correlation between individual ORTG and USG) but team effects could cause that.

        Anyway, the idea is that if a player is able to sustain a league average ORTG at above average USG, then they are an effective offensive player, as if they had a lower USG, their efficiency would theoretically be even higher. In theory an above average offensive option is doing his team a favour by taking as many possessions as possible, driving the overall team offense further above average. So if DD is above average while using an extremely high number of possessions, that's a good thing.
        Dan, actually your interpretation is slightly off. It's not that players with high usage have low ORTGs. The idea is more along the lines that you can rank good vs. bad offensive players by the ability to maintain highest ORTG at highest usage, being at the top. And the second point, which Oliver found by plotting a 'skill curve', is that players typically have a USG ceiling at which their efficiency drops off rapidly at worse than league average ORTG.

        Comment


        • Matt52 wrote: View Post
          What I'm struggling with in the big picture is the bold. The numbers don't factor in situation/context. Here is the forumula BBR uses for ORtg:



          When you take a guy like Rudy Gay, as per your example, he has the same skill level he had in Toronto versus Sacramento. The difference is situational and how he is being used. On the season his ORtg is up to 102 as per basketball reference. It was in the 90's for Toronto.


          For me though I keep coming back to the consistency and the decision making. I'm convinced (way to go golden and company) that he is an EFFECTIVE offensive player - which is a big step from a couple of days ago. However the EFFICIENCY for me is still a question mark. The ORtg is offense as a whole and the formula takes a lot of factors in to consideration such as team stats/figures and turnovers. When you look at straight up shooting stats (FG%, eFG%, TS%, adjFG%, PPS) he is pretty average at best.

          It would be interesting to chart the number of *dribble*dribble*dribble* contested 20ft shots with 12+ seconds on the shot clock. These are the shots that drive me nuts. They are low percentage and easily avoidable. I'm guessing but I think he takes about 4 a game. Part of playing with a team is having faith in your teammates that if you give up the ball you'll get it back in a better position to score. That is what I'd like to see and I think if you saw that you would be able to put him up with the elite in the game in scoring.


          Anyways, good discussion. It has certainly changed my perspective.
          Oliver touches on this too - you really only need to read just that chapter like 3 or 4 times to get the hang of it. He talks about taking 'smarter shots' leading to better efficiency. So, yeah, Rudy Gay was taking dumb shots and/or he wasn't being put in a position to take smart shots or both (only Casey and Gay know for sure).

          But another great Raptors example of an elite scorer being misused is Vince Carter under Kevin O'Neill 2003-04 season. KO had the philosophy that your offence should 'run through your best player'. Unfortunately, this resulted in exactly the same Rudy Gay-like ISO offence that we saw earlier this season and was excrutiating to watch and even worse, not successful. VC had already proven on multiple seasons and different coaches, that he could maintain very high ORTG (~110 range) at high usage (30%), but his ORTG plummeted to 99 under KO. Coaching strategy was clearly the difference here, and really by KO's design. Great defensive coach, but way too rigid in his systems and philosophies and he completely misused VC that season.

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          • Matt52 wrote: View Post
            I do as well.

            Hopefully this exchange can show how a difference of opinion can be discussed without condescending bullshit, insults, and off topic personal attacks.

            Maybe it can also show how when things do get personal it can be taken to the private messages and sorted out.

            Then - and here is the kicker! - no grudges can be held and constructive conversation can ensure back on the main boards (right, Craig? :P)

            This has been an enlightening day for me and reminds me why I originally started on RR.... and often in last number of months have found myself wondering why I came here to begin with.
            Preach brother!

            And then there's the enlightening topic of the discussion, perspective on shooting efficiency, which is what I was referring to, on topic that is.

            Comment


            • golden wrote: View Post
              Actually, I used a little bit different terminology - it's more like a USG ceiling, but the same basic idea if you flip the XY axis on efficiency vs. Poss%. If you go back to the Dean Oliver book link, he explains how he painstaking plotted player efficiency (ORTG) vs. Poss% (USG) and he found that all players had a characteristic 'skill curve', which featured a USG ceiling, which when the player exceeded that ceiling, his ORTG plummeted.

              For high usage players, in simple, non-geek terms, it just means how efficiently a player can continue score when the other team knows that he's taking the majority of the shots and keying on him. It also provides a strong indication of how dominant a player is at scoring using his strengths (e.g. Shaq in the post) and/or the variety of ways a guy can score (e.g. Kobe.. FT, post, slash, 3's, etc...).

              On the flip side, there are players like Tyson Chandler who always have amazing efficiency, but extremely low USG. That's because they have such a limited number of ways to score. In the case of Chandler (career USG ~ 13%), he needs to play with a guy like Melo or Dirk, who can take those extra possessions (7% USG gap), because if Chandler starts taking more shots outside of his comfort level, it won't be pretty, and his ORTG will plummet (like a a cliff). Kind of like when Amir starts to take those threes. Players with high USG ceilings, even at even league average ORTG are extremely valuable.
              golden wrote: View Post
              Dan, actually your interpretation is slightly off. It's not that players with high usage have low ORTGs. The idea is more along the lines that you can rank good vs. bad offensive players by the ability to maintain highest ORTG at highest usage, being at the top. And the second point, which Oliver found by plotting a 'skill curve', is that players typically have a USG ceiling at which their efficiency drops off rapidly at worse than league average ORTG.
              golden wrote: View Post
              Oliver touches on this too - you really only need to read just that chapter like 3 or 4 times to get the hang of it. He talks about taking 'smarter shots' leading to better efficiency. So, yeah, Rudy Gay was taking dumb shots and/or he wasn't being put in a position to take smart shots or both (only Casey and Gay know for sure).

              But another great Raptors example of an elite scorer being misused is Vince Carter under Kevin O'Neill 2003-04 season. KO had the philosophy that your offence should 'run through your best player'. Unfortunately, this resulted in exactly the same Rudy Gay-like ISO offence that we saw earlier this season and was excrutiating to watch and even worse, not successful. VC had already proven on multiple seasons and different coaches, that he could maintain very high ORTG (~110 range) at high usage (30%), but his ORTG plummeted to 99 under KO. Coaching strategy was clearly the difference here, and really by KO's design. Great defensive coach, but way too rigid in his systems and philosophies and he completely misused VC that season.

              Stay Gold, golden. That's some fascinating stuff. Going to look for this book ASAP. Up my debatin' game.

              That is some wicked good discussion boys.

              Comment


              • Our main man Demar is on the cover of Now....



                Article here: http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=196775

                picture thanks to https://twitter.com/MikeFordPhotos/s...609024/photo/1

                What a great kid.

                Comment


                • Boom

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                  • How hilarious would that cover be if the DD rumors for rondo were true and he got traded?
                    @Boymusic66

                    Comment


                    • TSF wrote: View Post
                      How hilarious would that cover be if the DD rumors for rondo were true and he got traded?
                      I've not heard that rumour.

                      Where did you hear it?

                      Comment


                      • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                        I've not heard that rumour.

                        Where did you hear it?
                        He just made it up.
                        Mamba Mentality

                        Comment


                        • Do you guys think that Demar's performance tonight was affected by the public's disapproval of his blocked shot on Wednesday?

                          I felt like he wasn't relaxed, or in his rhythm like he was on Wednesday.

                          He has off nights every now and then, but tonight he was looking hesitant and was't being aggressive in searching for and taking his shots.
                          I know this may be a bit controversial but I think the Raptors have proven that they're the best team in the NBA from Canada
                          -random Facebook user. 2016

                          Comment


                          • YoungGunRaptor wrote: View Post
                            Do you guys think that Demar's performance tonight was affected by the public's disapproval of his blocked shot on Wednesday?

                            I felt like he wasn't relaxed, or in his rhythm like he was on Wednesday.

                            He has off nights every now and then, but tonight he was looking hesitant and was't being aggressive in searching for and taking his shots.
                            DeMar was just cold.. and that's the unfortunate part of his game. He knows how to drive but he takes too many jump shots. His shot chart showed that he only took 3 shots inside the paint and was 2/3 from there. Outside of the paint he went 3/11.

                            When your shot isn't going in you got to post up or drive.

                            Comment


                            • I agree. Plus, when the bigs get going and Ross is on fire, I would rather see Derozan looking to pass the ball like he did tonight.
                              I know this may be a bit controversial but I think the Raptors have proven that they're the best team in the NBA from Canada
                              -random Facebook user. 2016

                              Comment


                              • YoungGunRaptor wrote: View Post
                                Do you guys think that Demar's performance tonight was affected by the public's disapproval of his blocked shot on Wednesday?
                                Not at all, infact I thought he played fine. Didn't really like the way he came out in the first with some very long contested two's, but he was under control and didn't force much for the most part, made the right decisions and looked for the open man with some solid passes.
                                Last edited by BigCamB; Sat Feb 22, 2014, 02:52 AM.

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