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  • Joey wrote: View Post
    Lol well considering even with his clarification I still have no idea what he meant by "similar win%", I'm not sure ...
    He does say "anyone else", which to me implies a single player. Gets far murkier and tougher to gauge when we start combining players and variables.

    That said, I believe we could nab either of Al Horford or Tobias Harris with that amount of money, and believe they would both contribute positively to a winning program. I also think guys like Brandon Wright, Jordan Hill and Kosta Koufos are better targets than Ersan for PF.

    Not to mention we are discussing all current Free Agents, and Demar isn't a Free Agent until next season (or potentially the year after), when we've hopefully already signed Horford or Harris.....
    All fair points. I took the salary restriction as more important than the # of players (within reason). Since DD isn't a free agent, you could technically trade him for Ersan and then sign Green to make it a possibility at least.

    To me the bigger point was that there are lots of good players making way less than DD (even at his current salary rate) that are good players contributing to good teams winning. Our team needs more talent, and spending premium money ($14M+) needs to be done for premium talent. I really don't think Demar is that talent, so better off with 2 talented productive players on smaller deals (which means greater flexibility too).

    I'm certainly not advocating for Ersan, he was literally a player at a position of need/opportunity who produced winshares48 comparable to DD for less money. He was a name that got thrown around a lot a couple of years ago but at this point, not sure his skill set isn't redundant with PP.
    Heir, Prince of Cambridge

    If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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    • DD's incentive was 600k for making the all star game, so last year he made 10.1M. This year he returned to 9.5M. But due to the delay in cap effect of incentives, the cap hits are reversed (last year he only counted as 9.5 M against the cap, this year he counted as 10.1M, and next season he'll be back to 9.5M. Won't know until the all star break whether he actually gets paid 9.5 or 10.1 this coming season).
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • 15M is fair, as is his current contract. Due to my dislike of his game and playing style, I would not keep him on a fair deal (well, I would not let him walk, so yes I would keep him, but I'd look to trade him). I'd need him to take a 10M or less deal and a role like 6th man. But my stance on him is well known.

        In any case, the cost of keeping him is a secondary concern. If this team doesn't make strides deeper into the playoffs, there's a good chance that even if we field a competitive offer, he goes elsewhere. And that's disastrous asset loss, considering he may be our highest league-wide perceived value player in trade.
        twitter.com/dhackett1565

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        • I gotta say 13 Million. But I really really hope we ship him out for key assets.... the more I think about that, the more I see us being better w/o DD.
          Axel wrote:
          Now Cody can stop posting about this guy and we have a poster to blame if anything goes wrong!!
          KeonClark wrote:
          We won't hear back from him. He dissapears into thin air and reappears when you least expect it. Ten is an enigma. Ten is a legend. Ten for the motherfucking win.
          KeonClark wrote:
          I can't wait until the playoffs start.

          Until then, opinions are like assholes. Everyone has one and they most often stink

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          • Axel wrote: View Post
            All fair points. I took the salary restriction as more important than the # of players (within reason). Since DD isn't a free agent, you could technically trade him for Ersan and then sign Green to make it a possibility at least.

            To me the bigger point was that there are lots of good players making way less than DD (even at his current salary rate) that are good players contributing to good teams winning. Our team needs more talent, and spending premium money ($14M+) needs to be done for premium talent. I really don't think Demar is that talent, so better off with 2 talented productive players on smaller deals (which means greater flexibility too).

            I'm certainly not advocating for Ersan, he was literally a player at a position of need/opportunity who produced winshares48 comparable to DD for less money. He was a name that got thrown around a lot a couple of years ago but at this point, not sure his skill set isn't redundant with PP.
            Key #1 for success in the league as a GM

            I think our fans are a little too used to the Bryan Colangelo school of running a basketball team

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            • OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
              Key #1 for success in the league as a GM

              I think our fans are a little too used to the Bryan Colangelo school of running a basketball team
              You mean draft a quality prospect, hype them up as the team's next star and then pay them as such regardless of production? Sounds about right.

              So many talented players who were playing for peanuts last year (James Johnson being one of them). Multiple assets that are easily moved is basically how Houston was able to acquire Harden and Co.
              Heir, Prince of Cambridge

              If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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              • Cody73 wrote: View Post
                I gotta say 13 Million. But I really really hope we ship him out for key assets.... the more I think about that, the more I see us being better w/o DD.
                Before they jump on you, "with what we can get in return" should be added on the end of that sentence.
                Heir, Prince of Cambridge

                If you see KeonClark in the wasteland, please share your food and water with him.

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                • planetmars wrote: View Post
                  My biggest concern with keeping DeMar is what his next contract will be. In 2016 the salary cap will go from $63M to an estimated $89M. DeMar has a player option that he will most likely exercise so that he can get in on the fun. The problem is many teams will have cap space that year and most will be able to afford paying DeMar his maximum.

                  DeMar's maximum will be about $24M. If someone offered DeMar $20M would you want him back at that amount? He'd be a UFA, but let's assume he'd give the Raptors the opportunity to match.

                  At what value would you say he's not worth keeping?

                  Note: Currently DeMar makes $9.5M which is 15% of the cap. 15% of $89M is $13.3M.
                  Honestly I would pay him anything he wants....

                  ....as long as it's not the Raptors writing the check

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                  • Axel wrote: View Post
                    To me the bigger point was that there are lots of good players making way less than DD (even at his current salary rate) that are good players contributing to good teams winning. Our team needs more talent, and spending premium money ($14M+) needs to be done for premium talent. I really don't think Demar is that talent, so better off with 2 talented productive players on smaller deals (which means greater flexibility too).
                    Laws of Diminishing returns*. There's just no way you take some of those players you listed, and slot them into Demars usage rate, and they produce the same WS48. Even if you just increase their minutes to Demars level, let alone Usage, they don't maintain that same WS48.
                    Vice versa - decrease Demar's usage, put him in a system where he has a defined role, is not the main target on D, is not forced into ISO every single play, has reliable teammates etc. and watch happens to his WS48.

                    Axel wrote:
                    I'm certainly not advocating for Ersan, he was literally a player at a position of need/opportunity who produced winshares48 comparable to DD for less money.
                    There will be a bias to players on good teams with WS though. Ilyasova had a higher WS48 than Demarcus Cousins and Nik Vucevik. Second to that, theres generally a negative bias against high usage players (Kobe, Iverson types) as well. I say generally, because somehow Harden and Westbrook were both way up there in WS. I attritube that to their relatively high Ast%. But Demar certainly isn't Harden or Westbrook.

                    WS48 is good and all, but Austin Rivers had a higher WS48 than Andrew Wiggins (Wiggins was nearly last in the league out of Qualified players), and yet I think we all can agree Austin Rivers didn't do more to contribute to wins, or to contribute to his team.
                    Greivis Vasquez had a higher WS48 than Monta Ellis. I'm not a huge Ellis fan, but I'm sure he had a better season than GV did. Heck, Brandon Wright had a higher WS48 than Lebron James.

                    The players situation counts for nearly everything when it comes to WS and WS48.




                    *First paragraph from that Article I linked above:
                    In the wake of my last few posts on diminishing returns in rebounding, a lot of people have suggested looking at how diminishing returns applies to scoring. This is a more complex issue, but I think some of the same methods can be used to try to understand what’s going on in this part of the game of basketball. For rebounding, we were just looking at the relationship of player rebounding to team rebounding. For scoring, we have to look at the relationship of player efficiency and player usage to team efficiency. Diminishing returns for scoring is really just another way of framing the usage vs. efficiency debate which has been going on in the stats community for years. Does efficiency decrease as usage increases? By how much? What, if any, value should be placed on shot creation? Are coaches using anything near to the optimal strategies in distributing shot attempts among their players? Is Allen Iverson wildly overrated? Was Fred Hoiberg criminally underutilized? The big names in basketball stats like Dean Oliver, Bob Chaikin, John Hollinger, Dan Rosenbaum, and Dave Berri have all staked out positions in this debate. For some background, see here and here and here and here and here and so on and so on. A lot of words have been written on this topic.
                    Its actually a really interesting read.
                    Last edited by Joey; Wed May 27, 2015, 06:26 PM.

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                    • Axel wrote: View Post
                      You mean draft a quality prospect, hype them up as the team's next star and then pay them as such regardless of production? Sounds about right.

                      So many talented players who were playing for peanuts last year (James Johnson being one of them). Multiple assets that are easily moved is basically how Houston was able to acquire Harden and Co.
                      It is so sad that this is true. Every prospect is supposed to raise the Raptors out of the dumpster fire...and none have since Carter (except arguably JV)

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                      • OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
                        It is so sad that this is true. Every prospect is supposed to raise the Raptors out of the dumpster fire...and none have since Carter (except arguably JV)
                        Actually, Bargnani and Derozan were the only overhyped ones.
                        "Stop eating your sushi."
                        "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                        "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                        - Jack Armstrong

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                        • OldSkoolCool wrote: View Post
                          It is so sad that this is true. Every prospect is supposed to raise the Raptors out of the dumpster fire...and none have since Carter (except arguably JV)
                          Were we not a lottery team when we draft DD? Now were a legit playoffs team. Have broken pretty much every raptor team record that stood. Doesn't look like a dumpster fire to me.
                          @Chr1st1anL

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                          • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                            Were we not a lottery team when we draft DD? Now were a legit playoffs team. Have broken pretty much every raptor team record that stood. Doesn't look like a dumpster fire to me.
                            We also broke a record for worst defeat by a favoured seed in a playoff series, so there's that.
                            "Stop eating your sushi."
                            "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                            "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                            - Jack Armstrong

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                            • JimiCliff wrote: View Post
                              We also broke a record for worst defeat by a favoured seed in a playoff series, so there's that.
                              What record is this? Source please?
                              @Chr1st1anL

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                              • Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
                                What record is this? Source please?
                                I was using a little poetic license . Based off us being the only favoured team to ever, I believe, lose the first two games at home in the first round.

                                If you can suggest any other favoured seed that was beat worse in a series than we were, I'm all ears.
                                "Stop eating your sushi."
                                "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
                                "I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
                                - Jack Armstrong

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