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Thread: Rebuild ... What does it really mean ??

  1. #1
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    Default Rebuild ... What does it really mean ??

    The word rebuild is being thrown around a lot these days. One person wants to trade KL, the other wants to trade DD and heck, someone else wants both of them out plus Ross and almost everyone wants to rebuild.

    That made me curious to know what do you guys think a rebuild would mean for this franchise ?
    What time frame are we looking at in order to get past first round with our "rebuild Team"?
    How many more years do we have to draft in lottery ?
    How bad to we have to get so our lottery picks actually translate to success ?

    So lets hear it from the fans who are advocating for rebuild.

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    Retool = trade either Kyle or DeMar, aim for playoffs again
    Rebuild = trade both Kyle and DeMar, aim for high draft pick

    There is no set timeframe for how long a rebuild would take but you'd have to be prepared for at least three years of being out of the playoffs. Because the East is so weak you could stumble into the playoffs with a decent coach and a young team, a la Boston or Milwaukee.

    The bigger question is how long does it take to vie for a championship after starting a rebuild, and I'd say that's closer to a 5 year process, again depending on how lucky you get in the draft.

    It's all relativistic. You want to up your chances of deep playoff contention by raising your talent ceiling. So the short term odds fall to 0 and the longer term odds might go up to say 30%. As opposed to shuffling around the middle, where your short-term odds are say 5% and remain that way.

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    Well obviously it will depend on how things go.

    But ideally you trade DD and Lowry for two top 10 picks this year, and sign some long term pieces in free agency (Joseph, etc). Then you probably lose a lot of games next year, so end up with another top 10 pick, plus another lotto pick from the Knicks. So then you've got a core of JV, three top 10 picks, the lotto pick, this year's 20th pick, Bruno, BeBe, PP, Ross (possibly), any free agents you grab this summer, and boatloads of cap room. You target young pieces in summer 2016, staying out of the big races. Probably end up late lotto the following draft, adding one more rookie scale piece, then again have huge cap room to add talent to a very solid core. Then ideally you make the playoffs and build from there, with multiple lotto talents growing together with more veteran pieces (young veterans) in JV and any free agents to tie it together, and a large window for success. So, playoffs in 2017-18, with a team that should be nowhere near its ceiling. Potential deep playoff runs as soon as 2018-19.

    That's one of literally hundreds of scenarios, but it's one scenario.

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    Rebuild = completely changing the look of the teams roster. That means 80-90% of the current players, especially the core, must be gone. Changing the core is what actually changes the team. Rebuild doesn't necessarily have to mean losing a lot of game, though in this case that may be a direct result.
    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    What do you know, we tried to tank and it worked!

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    I hate the term rebuild as it makes it sound as though there is a finished product and you're starting over. While that might apply to an annual contender like the Spurs, but certainly not a team that hasn't made it out of the first round.

    But the for the sake of playing your game, rebuild can take up to 3 years before significant gains. If by year 3 you don't see it, then it wasn't done right.

    That said, I don't think the timeframe would be that long. Getting into the playoffs in the East is still a very attainable goal, even with a very flawed team. Milwaukee can't score for crap, but made it in with good defence. The Nets only won 38 games and made the playoffs. Getting some better defenders (even rookies can defend) on the perimeter, run an actual offence (PnR and Horns can work) and getting into the playoffs wouldn't be that hard.

    So time to flip the question, since I'm assuming you are against any rebuild, "what time frame are we looking at in order to get past first round with our non-rebuild Team?"
    #provem - by playing well on the court. Don't worry about the twitterverse

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Well obviously it will depend on how things go.

    But ideally you trade DD and Lowry for two top 10 picks this year, and sign some long term pieces in free agency (Joseph, etc). Then you probably lose a lot of games next year, so end up with another top 10 pick, plus another lotto pick from the Knicks. So then you've got a core of JV, three top 10 picks, the lotto pick, this year's 20th pick, Bruno, BeBe, PP, Ross (possibly), any free agents you grab this summer, and boatloads of cap room. You target young pieces in summer 2016, staying out of the big races. Probably end up late lotto the following draft, adding one more rookie scale piece, then again have huge cap room to add talent to a very solid core. Then ideally you make the playoffs and build from there, with multiple lotto talents growing together with more veteran pieces (young veterans) in JV and any free agents to tie it together, and a large window for success. So, playoffs in 2017-18, with a team that should be nowhere near its ceiling. Potential deep playoff runs as soon as 2018-19.

    That's one of literally hundreds of scenarios, but it's one scenario.
    I was thinking about the same lines and think it is the most realistic way of looking at a total rebuild and what it really takes IF EVERYTHING goes as PLAN and we have SUCCESSFUL draft picks.

    The way we describe it here is the best case scenario in a way that our draft picks actually show potentials and have talents.

    The next question comes how high should we draft in 2015/16, 2016/2017 in order to maximize our chances of not drafting a bust ?

    Is there anything we can do to ensure we do not drafts Rafael Arajus, Charlie V, T.Ross, AB, J.Graham and ... with our middle of lottery picks ?

    Lets face it, we will be investing next 4-5 years and betting everything we have in our ability to do one thing and it is to draft well.
    Last edited by McRealistic; Yesterday at 07:50 AM.

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    2 thoughts...

    When trading players like DeRozan and Lowry, a 'rebuild' could potentially become more of a 'retool', based on the quality of players/prospects/picks they should conceivably return. I haven't read a single poster advocating dumping either of them, which is more of a tank move. Adding fair market value returns for both player, along with the 3 1st round picks the Raptors already have over the next two drafts, to a core of JV (and young players like Patterson, Ross, Bruno and Bebe) should create a pretty talented and competitive team (without even factoring in the cap space MU has created, to add free agents in 2015/16). I personally don't think trading either of those players (for fair market returns) would significantly hurt the Raptors all that much, because they're both flawed players on a poorly coached team. Perhaps a step back next season, but I see no reason why they shouldn't be right back in the thick of the EC playoff race, with a much improved core, within a season or two at most.

    The other thing I've noticed is that a lot of posters seem to shy away from significant changes - tank, rebuild, retool, etc... - for seemingly no other reason than a fear of the unknown. Whether it's acknowledging that DC is a bad coach yet being worried about not being able to find a better coach to replace him, or worrying that trading DeRozan and/or Lowry for top-10 draft picks might result in 'bust' picks, it seems like there are two mutually exclusive trains of thought colliding. The issue of good VS bad management (or draft luck) should be an entirely separate discussion from the decision making about either the head coach or core players potentially on the trading block. If the better move is to unload the ISO-heavy veterans for fair market returns, primarily a combination of young prospects and picks, then you make the move(s) and put your faith in MU to evaluate talent and draft well.

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    This is my line of thought:

    1) A rebuild is when the core of your team needs a change, for us that would equate to Lowry/Derozan/JV. For a Rebuild to happen we would need to look at our core and say that they are potentially past their prime, they don't fit well together, or were never good enough to be a core in the first place. (I happen to believe that they don't fit well together, based on play and age, and could probably be a part of a core on a contending team with better fit)

    2) A retool means that you have the core you like, but you're missing the pieces around them. If we like Lowry/DD/JV but thought the problem was a starting caliber SF and PF then you fall into this camp in my opinion.

    3) Now to touch base on the OPs question "What would a rebuild look like for us". Essentially DanH and Mcrealistic have touched on that. Through the draft. Move the older pieces of our core in DD/Lowry to target the players you want. If you can target prospects in the league who are 1-2 years in that works as well. With a giant cap jump coming rookie contracts will have more value than ever and allow for more opportunity in FA.

    If we dedicated the next 2 years to adding young talent then the single most important thing Masai can focus on now, is ensuring he gets the best trainers/coaches/development staff he can as well as adding the Dleague team ASAP. Find a couple Veteran players in the mold of Chuck Hayes (Smart, good influence, knows the game and how to be a pro) to have around. Create a culture that promotes growth and development.

    A couple years after that, you hope that you have a developing star or two in your ranks and some solid rotational players who all fit as a team. You hope that you make some noise in the regular season, even making a competitive first round appearance. With them on their rookie contracts still you look at adding any more core pieces you need through FA and then tweak the team as necessary.

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Well obviously it will depend on how things go.

    But ideally you trade DD and Lowry for two top 10 picks this year, and sign some long term pieces in free agency (Joseph, etc). Then you probably lose a lot of games next year, so end up with another top 10 pick, plus another lotto pick from the Knicks. So then you've got a core of JV, three top 10 picks, the lotto pick, this year's 20th pick, Bruno, BeBe, PP, Ross (possibly), any free agents you grab this summer, and boatloads of cap room. You target young pieces in summer 2016, staying out of the big races. Probably end up late lotto the following draft, adding one more rookie scale piece, then again have huge cap room to add talent to a very solid core. Then ideally you make the playoffs and build from there, with multiple lotto talents growing together with more veteran pieces (young veterans) in JV and any free agents to tie it together, and a large window for success. .
    I'd be on board for this.

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    Rebuild?

    That's inconceivable!

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    Quote Scraptor wrote: View Post
    Retool = trade either Kyle or DeMar, aim for playoffs again
    Rebuild = trade both Kyle and DeMar, aim for high draft pick
    Then there's: Reload = trade neither and try to get more 'bullets' around those 2 guys (like Middleton or Green).

    I fear MLSE and Masai want to take this route. After 20 years of being sad-sacks, the Raps just making the playoffs, while being profitable, dramatically improving franchise value and providing prime media content could feel like they've found utopia to some MLSE/Rogers/Bell execs.

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Well obviously it will depend on how things go.

    But ideally you trade DD and Lowry for two top 10 picks this year, and sign some long term pieces in free agency (Joseph, etc). Then you probably lose a lot of games next year, so end up with another top 10 pick, plus another lotto pick from the Knicks. So then you've got a core of JV, three top 10 picks, the lotto pick, this year's 20th pick, Bruno, BeBe, PP, Ross (possibly), any free agents you grab this summer, and boatloads of cap room. You target young pieces in summer 2016, staying out of the big races. Probably end up late lotto the following draft, adding one more rookie scale piece, then again have huge cap room to add talent to a very solid core. Then ideally you make the playoffs and build from there, with multiple lotto talents growing together with more veteran pieces (young veterans) in JV and any free agents to tie it together, and a large window for success. So, playoffs in 2017-18, with a team that should be nowhere near its ceiling. Potential deep playoff runs as soon as 2018-19.

    That's one of literally hundreds of scenarios, but it's one scenario.
    This would essentially tackle every issue I have with the raps.

    I would finally have the chance as a fan to get excited about a whole new squad with a bright and exciting future.

    I wouldn't have to worry about how we are going to try to continue moving forward with continually more patchwork.

    I would be able to get behind a foundation that has been proven to lead to success.

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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    2 thoughts...

    When trading players like DeRozan and Lowry, a 'rebuild' could potentially become more of a 'retool', based on the quality of players/prospects/picks they should conceivably return. I haven't read a single poster advocating dumping either of them, which is more of a tank move. Adding fair market value returns for both player, along with the 3 1st round picks the Raptors already have over the next two drafts, to a core of JV (and young players like Patterson, Ross, Bruno and Bebe) should create a pretty talented and competitive team (without even factoring in the cap space MU has created, to add free agents in 2015/16). I personally don't think trading either of those players (for fair market returns) would significantly hurt the Raptors all that much, because they're both flawed players on a poorly coached team. Perhaps a step back next season, but I see no reason why they shouldn't be right back in the thick of the EC playoff race, with a much improved core, within a season or two at most.
    .
    When I read your post, I see a major difference with what DanH has suggested. In my eyes, as you mentioned , you are talking about retool which means that over next 2-3 years, we will never get a draft pick that is probably top 4-5 in the draft.
    Getting young serviceable players that can keep us competitive, will translate into being somewhere in the middle of the east and not getting a high draft pick.

    DanH can correct me if I am wrong but what he is suggesting is to get back picks for Lowry and DD and basically, try to get that high draft picks in the hope of star player in the next 2-3 years of draft and this is why his target is 2017/18 !!

    Although I see a lot of risk in his approach, given that we have to draft very smart, I can buy into it and consider it a way forward.
    With your way, I think we will be where we are now even with our #20 picks and what ever we get in the middle of the first round for the next year.

    So I see a major difference between what you suggesting and the path that DanH is suggesting.

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    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Well obviously it will depend on how things go.

    But ideally you trade DD and Lowry for two top 10 picks this year, and sign some long term pieces in free agency (Joseph, etc). Then you probably lose a lot of games next year, so end up with another top 10 pick, plus another lotto pick from the Knicks. So then you've got a core of JV, three top 10 picks, the lotto pick, this year's 20th pick, Bruno, BeBe, PP, Ross (possibly), any free agents you grab this summer, and boatloads of cap room. You target young pieces in summer 2016, staying out of the big races. Probably end up late lotto the following draft, adding one more rookie scale piece, then again have huge cap room to add talent to a very solid core. Then ideally you make the playoffs and build from there, with multiple lotto talents growing together with more veteran pieces (young veterans) in JV and any free agents to tie it together, and a large window for success. So, playoffs in 2017-18, with a team that should be nowhere near its ceiling. Potential deep playoff runs as soon as 2018-19.

    That's one of literally hundreds of scenarios, but it's one scenario.
    Alternate scenario: your three top ten picks turn into Kyle Lowry, Terrence Ross and Demar Derozan (or maybe Kwame Brown, Tyrus Thomas and Ricky Rubio); JV gets tired of rebuilding with magic beans and leaves in FA; no free agents sign with the Raptors cause it's Toronto and the team sucks. So, no playoffs until maybe 2018, with a team whose ceiling will be right about where the team already is now except you've spent three years spinning your wheels and being terrible.

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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Alternate scenario: your three top ten picks turn into Kyle Lowry, Terrence Ross and Demar Derozan (or maybe Kwame Brown, Tyrus Thomas and Ricky Rubio); JV gets tired of rebuilding with magic beans and leaves in FA; no free agents sign with the Raptors cause it's Toronto and the team sucks. So, no playoffs until maybe 2018, with a team whose ceiling will be right about where the team already is now except you've spent three years spinning your wheels and being terrible.
    100% possible.

    However, hopefully with a GM who's roots are in drafting can avoid those picks and target the players he likes. Hopefully he can create a strong culture that focuses upon developing players and forget about this weird win-now/develop combo thing we have going on now.

    Measures can be taken to help prevent what you described. And if we can't get players with JV before he wants to leave then we trade him and try to get something back to last another year in lottery town. Hopefully Masai can build that report with him.

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    Quote McRealistic wrote: View Post
    When I read your post, I see a major difference with what DanH has suggested. In my eyes, as you mentioned , you are talking about retool which means that over next 2-3 years, we will never get a draft pick that is probably top 4-5 in the draft.
    Getting young serviceable players that can keep us competitive, will translate into being somewhere in the middle of the east and not getting a high draft pick.

    DanH can correct me if I am wrong but what he is suggesting is to get back picks for Lowry and DD and basically, try to get that high draft picks in the hope of star player in the next 2-3 years of draft and this is why his target is 2017/18 !!

    Although I see a lot of risk in his approach, given that we have to draft very smart, I can buy into it and consider it a way forward.
    With your way, I think we will be where we are now even with our #20 picks and what ever we get in the middle of the first round for the next year.

    So I see a major difference between what you suggesting and the path that DanH is suggesting.
    From my perspective the approach is the same, but the expected results are somewhat different.

    For me, trading DeRozan or Lowry should net some pretty good assets, whether it's a solid player, top-tier prospect, top-10 draft pick, or some combination thereof. Given the rest of the Raptors team and the quality of competition in the EC, I really don't see the Raptors being 'bad' for more than 1 season in that scenario.

    2015 offeason
    - Raptors own #20 pick
    - 1 or 2 top-10 picks acquired via trade
    - 1 or 2 quality young prospects acquired via trade
    - possibly snag 1 quality young free agent

    2015-2016 season
    - on the playoff bubble, late lottery pick, unless they get some help from the lottery gods

    2016 offseason
    - Raptors own 1st round pick (likely #10-14)
    - worse of Denver/NYK 1st round pick (hopefully high in the lottery)
    - tons of cap space to target at least 1 quality young-ish free agent and possibly 1 veteran for leadership/mentoring

    ROSTER
    - Valanciunas
    - Patterson?
    - Ross
    - Bruno
    - Bebe
    - 1/2 young prospects (acquired via trade for DeRozan and/or Lowry)
    - 1 young free agent from 2015 (ie: Joseph/Middleton/Harris type player)
    - 2015 #20 pick
    - 1/2 2015 top-10 picks
    - 2016 #10-14 pick
    - 2016 top-10 pick
    - 1 good free agent from 2016
    - 1 veteran free agent from 2016

    I have a hard time believing that that significantly rebuilt roster wouldn't be able to compete for playoffs after just 1 year in the lottery, with a much higher ceiling for future growth.

    Of course, I have a hard time believing that DeRozan and Lowry would each net a top-10 draft pick, let alone any decent prospects on top of that. It's also really hard to guess where the 2016 Den/NYK 1st round pick will fall, since a lot can happen to influence that outcome between now and then.

    Having said that, with all the asset accumulation going on, there's nothing preventing MU from flipping some of the young prospects and/or picks to land a top-tier player (as Houston did).

    The bottom line is that trading away DeRozan and Lowry to rebuild the team isn't necessarily a long-term rebuild or tank job, since they are quality players who should net a hefty return. A good GM dedicated to asset accumulation, with an eye for the longer-term, should have many avenues open to him to become competitive again fairly quickly (ie: 2-3 years).
    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Yesterday at 11:28 AM.

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    Quote Bandit wrote: View Post
    This is my line of thought:

    If we dedicated the next 2 years to adding young talent then the single most important thing Masai can focus on now, is ensuring he gets the best trainers/coaches/development staff he can as well as adding the Dleague team ASAP. Find a couple Veteran players in the mold of Chuck Hayes (Smart, good influence, knows the game and how to be a pro) to have around. Create a culture that promotes growth and development.

    A couple years after that, you hope that you have a developing star or two in your ranks and some solid rotational players who all fit as a team. You hope that you make some noise in the regular season, even making a competitive first round appearance. With them on their rookie contracts still you look at adding any more core pieces you need through FA and then tweak the team as necessary.
    Nicely said.

    I think 3 things are very important here.

    1) Time line: You make it clear that it will be couple of years before we can make the play off and make some noise. Fans should understand that and realize that this is a process that it will take time and during that time, we will be pretty much sucking.

    2) Adding a new young talent should be done in the first year or two in a manner that does not make this team a middle of the pack team. We do need high draft picks if we want to rebuild via picks. We do need to get our hands on that 1-3 gems of each year's draft because just drafting guys like Charlie V. we will never make any difference.

    3) Coaching staff and a culture that is high on development. That is the KEY. We want guys with proven record in their past that can make young players grow. We want a culture be in place.

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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Alternate scenario: your three top ten picks turn into Kyle Lowry, Terrence Ross and Demar Derozan (or maybe Kwame Brown, Tyrus Thomas and Ricky Rubio); JV gets tired of rebuilding with magic beans and leaves in FA; no free agents sign with the Raptors cause it's Toronto and the team sucks. So, no playoffs until maybe 2018, with a team whose ceiling will be right about where the team already is now except you've spent three years spinning your wheels and being terrible.

    Very very possible scenario as well. Thinking that JV will hang around for sure or our picks will flourish could be a huge mistake.
    These kind of rebuild has its own risk and needs to be planned very carefully.

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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    Alternate scenario: your three top ten picks turn into Kyle Lowry, Terrence Ross and Demar Derozan (or maybe Kwame Brown, Tyrus Thomas and Ricky Rubio); JV gets tired of rebuilding with magic beans and leaves in FA; no free agents sign with the Raptors cause it's Toronto and the team sucks. So, no playoffs until maybe 2018, with a team whose ceiling will be right about where the team already is now except you've spent three years spinning your wheels and being terrible.

    A very real possibility.

    But if it does happen?

    You start over again.... likely with a new GM.

    The process wasn't wrong, the decisions were.

    The fear of failure is a guarantee to never achieve success.
    "You donít know the Bruno Caboclo......"
    Bruno Caboclo

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    Quote mcHAPPY wrote: View Post
    A very real possibility.

    But if it does happen?

    You start over again.... likely with a new GM.

    The process wasn't wrong, the decisions were.

    The fear of failure is a guarantee to never achieve success.
    I like that, very true for most methods and a fact I think most people tend to overlook.

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