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I would have to agree. The only thing I'd add is he might play well enough in the first half of the year to be included in a trade and make the dilemma another team's concern.ebrian wrote:
The only scenario in which I would disagree with your final sentence if he adds other facets to his game that makes him more than a inefficient one dimensional player. Right now, he does not have any other facets.
Yea.. all I said were shooting percentages. There's other areas of his game that are severely lacking. Shooting is more related to the success of the team in general.. if he shoots better, we might eke out a playoff spot.
The big scare if if he made marginal gains in rebounding and passing. If he does that, then we'd have good reason to worry that the Raptors decide to give him way too much money. He's still young enough to make that happen but I have serious doubts he's even working on those areas of his game. Great -- you worked on your 3 point shot, upping your percentage by 20%.. but when are you going to learn how to dribble the ball?
If the Raptors ended up giving him an 8 figure salary, for example?
your pal,
ebrian
If the Raps give him 8 figures I'll be livid! Absolutely livid! For an organization that has spewed flexibility for the last 2 years, that type of contract would be a crippler.Yea.. all I said were shooting percentages. There's other areas of his game that are severely lacking. Shooting is more related to the success of the team in general.. if he shoots better, we might eke out a playoff spot.
The big scare if if he made marginal gains in rebounding and passing. If he does that, then we'd have good reason to worry that the Raptors decide to give him way too much money. He's still young enough to make that happen but I have serious doubts he's even working on those areas of his game. Great -- you worked on your 3 point shot, upping your percentage by 20%.. but when are you going to learn how to dribble the ball?
If the Raptors ended up giving him an 8 figure salary, for example?
The most, absolute most!, money he should be given would be Marcus Thornton money - average $8M per season. And that would require a huge improvement in many areas including, but not limited to: efficiency, rebounding, ball handling, creating, and defense.
Even $8M is too much I think.. I think he is a slightly above average player in the league, so he should be getting MLE money. Nick Young only got a 1 year deal worth less than $6M. That's about what DeMar should get be getting on average per year.
I agree. There was what I thought a pretty big requirement for him to get anywhere near $8M.
If DeRozan shows no/minimal improvements/consistency and Bargnani doesn't play a full season at the level he showed during the first 13 games last season, BC suddenly has some important decisions to make and potentially has some significant trade chips at his disposal.
Halloween can't come soon enough, this season is going to be exciting!
DeRozan is like a more athletic Kevin Martin without the 3 point shot. I think he has more potential than K mart since he is stronger and is a very good slasher at this stage in his career. If he can just improve that 3 point shot to at least 30% he'll be an all star. i find it amazing how he's able to score as much as 17 points without a 3 point shot. The dude has definitely got talent so i'm not ready to give up on him just yet.
Does he score 17 points because he is great or does he score 17 points because he is force fed opportunities? I think the latter based on his points per possession statistics.
Name a lottery team that doesn't "force feed" their highly drafted players. But now we don't have to, because of the talent we acquired this off season. We all know he's no superstar, so he has to pick his spots on offense. So far he's looking great and he's been extremely efficient. You can tell he's been working hard to improve his body and his post game. This will be his break out season. Book it
DD doesn't assist, he has no 3 point shot(I can't name another SG starter off the top of my head without one), and he finishes weak at the rim. I don't get all the love you have for him NoProps... Flash only gets you so far. Granted he's doing better at finishing this PREASEASON, but he needs to step it up even more if he wants to get paid.
DeRozan certainly wasn't force feed in his rookie year. The issue here is since he has been asked to shoulder more each year, he has become less efficient each year as well. He is still a young man and player but we are talking about a guy with 3 NBA seasons under his belt. No matter how you cut it, his development thus far leaves the Raptors in a very scary position.
I do hope you are right though but I wouldn't bet on it.
My concern about DeRozan is primarly based on the fact that after this season he'll be looking for a huge raise, likely regardless of whether he 'breaks out' or not. I hope he does, but if he doesn't, I'd rather trade him than sign him to a deal that he may never earn. If it wasn't a contract year, I wouldn't be nearly as concerned, since I do agree with you that he has loads of potential and has shown glimmers of hope... but the question is how much do you reward a guy who hasn't put it all together consistently?
3 NBA seasons doesn't seem like a whole lot to me Matt. Derozan is really only 23 years old. Where guys start to slow down is in the 32-33 age range. The guy has so much time to develop, he's only 23 and in my opinion, has done better than I expected. He was extremely raw coming into the league, and I think everyone forgets that. The guy had no handle, no shot, no post game, basically nothing to rely on offensively but his athleticism.
Young player, in a situation for guys like elite players to handle. Being 'THE GUY.' Derozan is not an elite talent, however has a chance to get there. He's being trusted upon quite a bit for a team without any other threat on the floor (speaking on past seasons) - Andrea out with an injury.
When we acquired Kyle Lowry, multiple people were talking about how much he still has to improve and has great potential. The guy is 26, with nearly 7 seasons under his belt. If anything, by your standards, he should be a big time player by his 3rd year.
Lowry already is a top 10 point guard - arguably - but, he really only got there last season, and probably the season before that.
We're asking too much out of our players right now, expectations should be high on Derozan this season from what he's experience in the Summer, and no doubt his performances in the pre-season, but we can't expect him to be the next best thing in 3-4 years in the league. He's not the talent LeBron James, Derrick Rose, Dwight Howard were when first coming into the league. Those guys were miles ahead as rookies in comparison Derozan. 9th pick, potential draft choice. Not a sure fire superstar off that consensus #1.
You're absolutely right about DeRozan and I don't think there's much argument about his age/rawness/potential. From reading all the comments about DD, I get the impression that most concern stems from the fact that his contract is expiring and he'll likely be looking for a significant raise; I assume he'll be asking for something in the $6-8M range at least.
It's only natural to consider this question: at what salary does DD become overpaid, considering you're paying him largely based on 'potential', despite having been in the league for four seasons? BC will also need to evaluate Ross as a potential replacement, while also considering the value DD has on the trade market. Without showing significant improvement this year, is it better to keep DD and pay him $X million per season, or is it better for the team to let Ross (on rookie-scale contract) replace him and turn DD into something else?
It's a hard question to answer, since there's so many variables involved. Some variables will become known throughout the course of this season (ie: DD's improvements and evaluating Ross), but we'll never have insight into DD's true market trade value. I'm sure there will be much more debate over the upcoming season, but it's totally understandable why there's concerns being raised which I don't think are unfair or unjustified, given the current situation.
I guess the best answer overall, is to wait and see. Demar Derozan has shown capabilities of being a very good scorer, and effective on both ends of the floor. Whether he can continue to improve, and get to the free throw line at a consistent basis is the question.
Now to be honest, depending on how Ross is really able to contribute this season, I highly doubt seeing Ross as a replacement for Derozan. This season anyways. Ross has very solid basic skills to build on (shooting, dribbling, defense), but he's still as much as a project as the next guy in the draft.
I'm wondering though, what if we let Derozan walk, or if we don't match any contract they send at him, is Ross the ideal replacement for now? I wouldn't think so. Than, I would have to look at the market, and there aren't very many 2's or 3's better than Derozan. Not to mention the potential factor, which is still fairly untouched.
Three years in the league, with the minutes he's been given since Day 1, is a lot of time to show your potential.
By 25, you generally are what you are in the NBA, and by 29, you're on your way down, from a physical standpoint, and you better have accumulated some other skills that don't rely on sheer athleticism to help you succeed. In other words, combine that curve with an expiring contract, and time is running short for Demar to really show what he's made of and where his career might max out. Lowry was in a different boat -- he didn't necessarily just become better at 25; he just finally got the minutes. Demar's had the minutes all along, and while he's improved slightly in some areas over the past 3 seasons, he's also regressed in some areas. It's still really tough to guess what kind of player he will end up.
You're right that Demar clearly isn't the talent that guys like Lebron, Rose, Howard, etc. But the question is whether he's the same kind of talent that Toronto has been hoping he would be since Day 1 -- an elite athlete who can use his physical gifts to get to the rim or the line on a regular basis, and use the same gifts to become a top-flight wing defender. I think Toronto thought they were getting another Gerald Wallace type -- not necessarily a lights-out perimeter shooter, but a guy who can cause havoc on both ends with his motor and athleticism, a borderline all-star. Demar is not nearly there yet.
The change to more of a post-up game this pre-season seems promising for his offensive game, but he's still an abhorrent passer and he still can't shoot a long jumper consistently. And his defense is bad, so bad that he's probably become more of a liability on that end than Bargnani. And for the passing and defensive issues, sometimes it's not an experience issue, it's more of a basketball IQ issue -- which you often can't fix.
This is definitely a make-or-break season for Demar, IMO. It's not even a question of how much money he'll be looking for; it's a question of whether he's needed or not. If he doesn't morph quickly into that Wallace type, then he's not much more valuable than a young Terrence Ross (who by most accounts is already a better shooter and defender at the 2 than Demar) or someone they could get in a trade or FA. I can't see them overpaying for him unless he proves he's a big piece.
Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.
ive seen quite a few times so far in preseason where demar has shown a better iq. hes been making better reads and some good passes the shots just havent fallen to show on his stat line
DeMar has picked up his shooting percentages through 6 preseason games. If he takes his 14-15 shots per game and shoots 46% as he has done in preseason and gets to the line 7 times per game hitting 80%, that would be a solid 19 points per game. I think that would be a good start.
He is also up nearly a steal per game to 1.7 through 6 preseason games, that is not too bad either.
It is all, afterall, only preseason so it means little but it is certainly encouraging.
That half-full glass is nearly up to the brim.
Where did these handles/rebounding come from?
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