The Present Stench and The Future Hope

[Apollo]

The team is on pace to finish with 22 wins. In '95-'96, their first season in the league, they finished with 21. This season would come in as the 3rd worst season in Raptors history. That's worse than the year Mighty Mouse left. That's worse than Grunwald's last season in Toronto, that's far worse than any season Babcock ran things into the ground. Past trends dealing with the team show it takes four full seasons for the team to be built up to a playoff team after the initial miss. That's not to say four seasons of progressive rebuilding but just four seasons of something ... That resembles a rebuild at varying levels of success. The Raptors have been out for three now seasons now and so if the trend continues then next season they would have to squeak in with the 8th seed. It certainly is a possibility if they draft a good player, have a solid free agency and are healthy next season. The Raptors now are entering a situation similar to the one Colangelo initially took over. He will have flexibility. This will be his "mulligan". Here's to hoping he doesn't splash wide right into the hazard again. His first time around given flexibility he won executive of the year and a division title. I don't expect that next season but I do expect to see a promising product besides on paper.

[ceez]

Interesting thread

[Mediumcore]

Young players improve a lot more dramatically than do veterans. Derozan, Ed Davis, Amir Johnson's improvement (perhaps James Johnson as well if he is around) alone should account for atleast a few more wins next season.

[Apollo]

James Johnson will be here. He's played well, his salary is small and they spent a first rounder to get him.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I have followed this team since they came into the league and, although this season may boast the third worst win/loss record, I don't think I have ever been as legitimately excited about the future of this franchise.

It's true that the Raptors may not have a franchise player like they have at times in the past with the likes of Mighty Mouse, Vinsanity and CB4 (all could be debated whether or not they were actually worthy of being called franchise players), but I don't remember this team ever having a core group of young players with as much skill and potential as we have right now (and will add to with the draft & offseason). It may take another season or two to get back to the playoffs, but the legit potential that players like Ed Davis, Demar DeRozan, Amir Johnson, Jeryd Bayless and Andrea Bargnani have, gives us suffering fans reason to have a positive outlook (whether they stay with this team or get used as a viable trade chip, their talent and potential is undeniable).

When you add to that core group of young players the fact that we should get a top-5 draft pick this season and are in a sound financial spot heading into a potentially completely new financial makeup of the league, I honestly believe the Raptors franchise is in a better position than many other NBA teams.

[mattscottnelson]

An expansion of these ideas belong on the main page as a column.

[sleepz]

The team is on pace to finish with 22 wins. In '95-'96, their first season in the league, they finished with 21. This season would come in as the 3rd worst season in Raptors history. That's worse than the year Mighty Mouse left. That's worse than Grunwald's last season in Toronto, that's far worse than any season Babcock ran things into the ground. Past trends dealing with the team show it takes four full seasons for the team to be built up to a playoff team after the initial miss. That's not to say four seasons of progressive rebuilding but just four seasons of something ... That resembles a rebuild at varying levels of success. The Raptors have been out for three now seasons now and so if the trend continues then next season they would have to squeak in with the 8th seed. It certainly is a possibility if they draft a good player, have a solid free agency and are healthy next season. The Raptors now are entering a situation similar to the one Colangelo initially took over. He will have flexibility. This will be his "mulligan". Here's to hoping he doesn't splash wide right into the hazard again. His first time around given flexibility he won executive of the year and a division title. I don't expect that next season but I do expect to see a promising product besides on paper.

Don't always agree with you but always respect your analysis. I was unaware that this year was worse than any of Babcocks tenure. I won't compare because Colangelo has a far superior track record but it didn't take long for Babcock to be gotten rid of after subpar performances.

My only points of concern are based on the drafting of a good player, free agency, and health next year. A top 3 pick would help but if they don't get that and fall outside of that number the prospect of getting a game-changer might get dim and would most likely be selecting a rotation player instead. A positive development but not worth a terrible amount in the win column.

For free agency I dont see Colangelo making a big splash. Who would he be targteing and isn't it hard to determine how the landscape will be with the impending lockout? Yes he might have more finanical flexibility but his recent history of FA signings outside the organization has not been good. Furthermore, he's gone on record saying they probably won't use the TPE due to the toxic contracts being offered in exchange for it.

Health would improve the teams fortunes but if the core nucleus as it is today of Bargnani, DeRozan, Davis, Johnson, and Calderon (and a rook) play all 82 next year how many more wins will that equate to in your opinion? I think this "rebuild" is year 1 of 3.

[Multipaul]

There is a major coaching issue at hand. That needs to be resolved pronto.

[Apollo]

I tried to stay away from Bargnani and Triano in this thread because they're both large questions marks and are extensively talked about through almost all threads.

[malefax]

Only a year ago, the Raptors were on the playoff bubble, and they would have made the playoffs if Bosh hadn't gotten injured. The team was built around Bosh. In one year, the team has been transformed via a huge rebuild. It's now full of young prospects.

Whatever else you can say about Colangelo, he doesn't waste any time.

Compare the Cleveland Cavaliers as a team that did not position themselves very well for a rebuild.

[Apollo]

Toronto has a young core because they stunk even with Bosh. They have used two lotto picks in the past few years and signed young guys to build from the ground because Bosh wasn't the kind of player who can carry a team on his own. The Cavs went to the finals not too long ago, they were built around a guy who could carry a team. They brought in lots of vets to try and help James win a title. It's easy to start a rebuild when you already have a bunch of young talent in house. The Cavs had a different starting point. It's not a fair comparison.

If you want to take your road then we can go down the avenue of "Colangelo should have traded Bosh before the deadline, look at what the Nuggets got for Melo".

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Toronto has a young core because they stunk even with Bosh. They have used two lotto picks in the past few years and signed young guys to build from the ground because Bosh wasn't the kind of player who can carry a team on his own. The Cavs went to the finals not too long ago, they were built around a guy who could carry a team. They brought in lots of vets to try and help James win a title. It's easy to start a rebuild when you already have a bunch of young talent in house. The Cavs had a different starting point. It's not a fair comparison.

If you want to take your road then we can go down the avenue of "Colangelo should have traded Bosh before the deadline, look at what the Nuggets got for Melo".

Haha that's a slippery slope discussion.... I remember when I first stumbled across RR two summers ago, prior to the start of Bosh's last season under contract. At that time I was one of very few posters supporting the Clippers rumor, which had them interested in Bosh and dangling their first round pick for him, which ended up becoming Blake Griffin! Always dangerous to play the 'what if' game, although I understand you were just replying to another comment. hmmm what if Blake Griffin was a Raptor... lol

[Multipaul]

Haha that's a slippery slope discussion.... I remember when I first stumbled across RR two summers ago, prior to the start of Bosh's last season under contract. At that time I was one of very few posters supporting the Clippers rumor, which had them interested in Bosh and dangling their first round pick for him, which ended up becoming Blake Griffin! Always dangerous to play the 'what if' game, although I understand you were just replying to another comment. hmmm what if Blake Griffin was a Raptor... lol

I agree, and I was a HUGE supporter of trading Bosh...hindsight..

[Apollo]

Haha that's a slippery slope discussion.... I remember when I first stumbled across RR two summers ago, prior to the start of Bosh's last season under contract. At that time I was one of very few posters supporting the Clippers rumor, which had them interested in Bosh and dangling their first round pick for him, which ended up becoming Blake Griffin! Always dangerous to play the 'what if' game, although I understand you were just replying to another comment. hmmm what if Blake Griffin was a Raptor... lol

For those who never heard this rumor before go here:

Blake Griffin Could Have Been A Raptor?

[Raptors_]

i just want to see this team win a title before i die.

[Beaverboi]

i just want to see this team win a title before i die.

You sound like a Leafs fan

[malefax]

Toronto has a young core because they stunk even with Bosh. They have used two lotto picks in the past few years and signed young guys to build from the ground because Bosh wasn't the kind of player who can carry a team on his own. The Cavs went to the finals not too long ago, they were built around a guy who could carry a team. They brought in lots of vets to try and help James win a title. It's easy to start a rebuild when you already have a bunch of young talent in house. The Cavs had a different starting point. It's not a fair comparison.

If you want to take your road then we can go down the avenue of "Colangelo should have traded Bosh before the deadline, look at what the Nuggets got for Melo".

Please. Spend 10 minutes reading some archive posts on a Cavs blog (for example http://www.cavstheblog.com/?p=4027 ), and you'll get a different perspective on Colangelo. The short story is that the Cavs had GM's who couldn't get any better support for LeBron than the likes of Larry Hughes, Mo Williams and Antawn "worst defender in the league" Jamison. Theystruck out repeatedly in the draft and brought in bad free agents. Danny Ferry's useful contribution was to eventually find SOME decent role-players who complemented LeBron. Not enough, and too late. The Cavs were an amazing team because LeBron was the best player in the league.

Doesn't it tell you something that Raptors cast-offs Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, and Joey graham were all playing serious minutes in LeBron's last year as a Cavalier?

Most fans have blinders on. They pay closest attention to what their team does, and as a consequence their opinion of their GM is usually very black or white: he's an idiot because the team sucks, or he's a genius because it's been doing well. But it doesn't take TOO much work to pick out the GM's that have really objectively struck out: Isaiah Thomas is the most obvious recent one (thank god he lost the ownership battle in Toronto, eh?), Kahn is a pretty promising candidate (Johnny Flynn 6th overall!) but Danny Ferry is a pretty safe pick (edit: or else Jim Paxson, his predecessor). If you can't win a championship with 6 years of LeBron James, you probably shouldn't be an NBA GM.

So anyway, yes, Toronto was helped in its rebuilding project by sucking more and therefore having higher draft picks. But the contracts Colangelo had around Bosh were also better, plus Colangelo is clearly very skilled in unloading contracts he doesn't want anymore. Colangelo as of last summer did not have a lineup full of youth: he has CREATED that, and he was able to because the contracts he already had didn't tie his hands, and because he made deals happen. Take a look at Cleveland's lineup. It ain't pretty, and no, that's NOT just because we were a worse team.

[Introcollapse]

We didn't have a healthy Kleiza. Don't forget about him. I'm convinced that he's a lot better than we saw. Think pre-season.

[Apollo]

Please. Spend 10 minutes reading some archive posts on a Cavs blog (for example http://www.cavstheblog.com/?p=4027 ), and you'll get a different perspective on Colangelo. The short story is that the Cavs had GM's who couldn't get any better support for LeBron than the likes of Larry Hughes, Mo Williams and Antawn "worst defender in the league" Jamison. Theystruck out repeatedly in the draft and brought in bad free agents. Danny Ferry's useful contribution was to eventually find SOME decent role-players who complemented LeBron. Not enough, and too late. The Cavs were an amazing team because LeBron was the best player in the league.

Doesn't it tell you something that Raptors cast-offs Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, and Joey graham were all playing serious minutes in LeBron's last year as a Cavalier?

Most fans have blinders on. They pay closest attention to what their team does, and as a consequence their opinion of their GM is usually very black or white: he's an idiot because the team sucks, or he's a genius because it's been doing well. But it doesn't take TOO much work to pick out the GM's that have really objectively struck out: Isaiah Thomas is the most obvious recent one (thank god he lost the ownership battle in Toronto, eh?), Kahn is a pretty promising candidate (Johnny Flynn 6th overall!) but Danny Ferry is a pretty safe pick (edit: or else Jim Paxson, his predecessor). If you can't win a championship with 6 years of LeBron James, you probably shouldn't be an NBA GM.

So anyway, yes, Toronto was helped in its rebuilding project by sucking more and therefore having higher draft picks. But the contracts Colangelo had around Bosh were also better, plus Colangelo is clearly very skilled in unloading contracts he doesn't want anymore. Colangelo as of last summer did not have a lineup full of youth: he has CREATED that, and he was able to because the contracts he already had didn't tie his hands, and because he made deals happen. Take a look at Cleveland's lineup. It ain't pretty, and no, that's NOT just because we were a worse team.

I didn't commend the Cavs on what they did when LeBron was there, I just explained what they did and why they weren't in as good a place to start a rebuild. I don't really care what Cavs fans think about how their team was built, that's not the point of what I was getting at. The Cavs and Raptors had different starting points for their rebuilds and so it's not a fair comparison. The Cavs were at a greater handicap so naturally they'd be behind.

[malefax]

Just as a further point about GM's: there is a lot of stuff that is just outside their control and makes a big difference to their success. The HUGE elephant in the room here is injuries. A really good example of this is the Houston Rockets. If you look at the moves that Daryl Morey has done, they have all or almost all been really good (in my opinion). I think the guy is really smart, a really good GM. But the Rockets are just fucked. Why? Because when Morey came in, their two cornerstone pieces with huge long contracts were Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. He had to work with that. He built around them. Of course it was a risk, but building around them was the only real option he had. Both of them fell apart, and two superstars turned into expiring contracts.