View Poll Results: Should the players accept the current proposal by owners by Wednesday?

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  • Yes

    24 77.42%
  • No - not a good deal, keep negotiating

    3 9.68%
  • No - not a good deal, decertify

    4 12.90%
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Thread: The Lockout & the Raptors: Players approve CBA, Owners too! (1944)

  1. #401
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote GarbageTime wrote: View Post
    This is still pretty much the same as the amortization debate though. Should the costs of owning a team be considered in with the cost of operating a team? Especially when a portion of the profits/returns from selling the team will not be distributed with the players?

    An owner is not forced or required to borrow money. They choose to because they want something without having the current liquidity to purchase it.
    It is a good debate and I take the owner's side (surprise! lol).

    As for the profits on selling - that assumes there is a profit. Historically there has been a profit - very large in some instances. However how long will franchise values appreciate? How long did stock/commodity/housing bubbles last? The point is the values keep going up until they don't. Are the players willing to take a share of the losses in the future - both operating and on a potential sale - should they occur? I doubt it. I've said this before but for all the hundreds of players/coaches/scouts and the thousands of employees for every team combined, the only people who lost money associated with the NBA last year were 22 owners.

    No matter what business, at the end of the day, the owners are the ones who take on the risk and therefore should take on whatever profits (or LOSSES) that come their way - at least that use to be how capitalism worked until Bailout Nations took over.


    The liquidity is a good topic as well. GAAP certainly considers the expense valid. In the US private homeowner are permitted to deduct interest on their personal mortgage as well. Unfortunately, this is not permitted in Canada.

    As for them wanting something without ability to purchase it, many businesses (and that is what a professional NBA team is) are unable to start up without a loan. Look at the franchise fees for any chain of restaurant or a business such as Canadian Tire. Most owners have a good chunk of change but not enough to handle franchise fees and all start up costs - so they borrow - and that interest becomes a cost of doing business.

  2. #402
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Default Bill Ingram, HW: CBA Conspiracy Theory?

    Sadly, I'm not sure there is much to disagree with here.


    We all saw this coming; at least, all of us who follow the inner workings of the NBA saw this coming.

    The real concerns about possibly missing the entire 2011-12 NBA season went into full force in February, when we were all gathered in Los Angeles for the 2011 All-Star Game. To outsiders it all seemed like business as usual, but insiders were talking about what wasn’t being said. Namely, the massive marketing effort surrounding the next All-Star game was completely missing. Not one sign, not a logo to be found, and never a mention of Orlando, where the 2012 game is scheduled to be held.

    To understand the significance of this you have to understand that the NBA goes out of its way to kick off the hype machine for the next All-Star game at the same time that it’s holding the current one. Yes, a full year in advance. You see, the All-Star festivities include a number of housekeeping events for the NBA, and is far more than just a chance to show off the game’s biggest stars. Commissioner David Stern delivers his State Of the Game address at All-Star Weekend, announcements are made regarding NBA Cares, Green Week, and the many other social initiatives that will take place over the next year.

    This time . . .bupkiss!

    That was when we started to fully understand just how far the NBA owners were willing to go to bring about a complete revamping of the league’s economic structure.

    Since then, there have been many other signs that the 2011-12 season was in serious jeopardy. Summer league was canceled months before the collective bargaining agreement expired on July 1st, and while the NBA did announce a preseason and regular season schedule for 2011-12, that schedule didn’t start regular season play until November 1st. In recent years the start of the NBA season has been inching earlier and earlier into October, and last season began on October 24th.

    Could it be a coincidence that the start of the new season was pushed back a full week, thus allowing more time for pretend negotiations and a nice, clean deadline for CBA talks? Perhaps, but unlikely.

    In his column for HoopsHype today, Mark Heisler suggests that this entire “phony war” was programmed from the start, that the NBA never had any intention of bargaining in good faith with the players. The plan all along was to take a hard line stance and simply wait out the players, who can ill afford to hold out for a prolonged period of time. After all, some 22 owners are said to be better off if the season doesn’t happen at all due to the current imbalance of the NBA economy.

    As Heisler aptly points out, all of the so-called negotiations between the owners and players to this point have been completely useless, little more than photo ops for each side to posture and dig their heels in even further than before. Both sides walk out of the meetings calling the demands from the their opponents unreasonable, saying they can’t possibly bargain with such unreasonable people.

    There are more meetings scheduled, of course, but rest assured that nothing will come of any meetings that happen before November 1st. Neither the players nor the owners are particularly concerned about preseason; in fact, most players would just as soon skip the entire exercise. Why play games that don’t count in arenas where fans aren’t paying to see players who won’t play during the regular season? What’s more, players who have their salary split up into 12 equal checks are still getting paid in October.

    November 1st is the first meeting that will hold any real repercussions for the players. If a resolution is reached on November 1st the majority of the 2011-12 season can still be salvaged, with just a month of games missed. Truth be told, that’s exactly what the vast majority of NBA players would like to do. They’d like to take a deal that doesn’t cut them too deeply, but one that gets the money flowing again without delay. Unfortunately, the richest 20% of the league’s players will never go for such a resolution, as it will involve taking a great deal of money from them to make the NBA’s economy sustainable.

    There will be a lot of talk on November 1st, both sides will say some progress was made, but at the end both sides will agree that there is still far too much distance between the sides to actually come to terms on a new CBA. The lockout will continue.

    When the lockout might actually end is, of course, anyone’s guess. Every analyst in the field has their own date in mind with reasoning to support their conclusion. This analyst’s firm belief is that the players will cave right around the first of December, when the entire 2011-12 season is really at stake for the first time.

    The vast majority of players live paycheck to paycheck, as ridiculous as that sounds, and by December 1st those players will be getting antsy for that next check. The pressure on Billy Hunter to get a deal done will increase exponentially, which is exactly what the owners are counting on. It’s not the owners who make their living playing basketball . . .and the owners have plenty of other revenue streams to milk while waiting for the outcome of the lockout. It’s possible that the players could hold out until the first week of January, when a failure to reach agreement would mean the cancellation of the entire season, but my gut tells me that last-ditch meeting won’t be necessary.

    It will be ugly . . .really ugly. There will be bitter, hurt feelings between the players and owners for years to come. But business is business, and most players would be in a world of financial hurt if the entire season was lost. They will step to the plate and deliver the owners the vast majority of what they’re currently asking for, all in the name of resuming the billion-dollar revenue flow.

    This is what the owners have counted on all along, what they knew would be the inevitable conclusion. It’s why they knew in February that there would be no need to plan for All-Star 2012 in Orlando, why they knew it was fine to delay plans for a lost summer league. It’s why the league pushed back the schedule for a week, and it’s why all of the negotiations to date have been fruitless.

    Call is a phony war or a conspiracy theory . . .either way, the NBA and its owners have been planning for a long, cold autumn, one that features absolutely no NBA basketball.

    http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-pm-cba-conspiracy-theory/

  3. #403
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default It's not a conspiracy...

    A conspiracy is something done behind closed doors. The owners have been pretty vocal for the past two years about their extreme distaste in the just expired CBA and that drastic change was needed. This isn't a conspiracy, it's out there right in front of all of us. This is hardline labor negotiations 101. They don't like the current arrangement and they have the leverage and resources to win the fight. To win this one they're going to simply use the most important resource they have, time. Based on what I've seen in terms of offers from the league in publications, it's not bad at all. It's no where near where the players were but let's face it, the party is over. This isn't 2005. Unemployment is at 20%, social aids are being cut and taxes are being hiked on the middle class. The NBA makes their money off the middle class and the middle class is under siege by the economy and government doings. The middle class is shrinking and the dollar is inflating. They're smart men, they're looking to the future, not the past. I think if the players fail to cave all through the winter and then finally come to the table later in desperation you're going to see what happened to the NHLPA happen to the NBAPA. The NHLPA ended up settling on an offer that was way worse than the Owner's initial offer but not only that, they also lost an entire year of work and no doubt killed a lot of their endorsement money because hockey interest in the states got so bad that only OLN would pick up games.

  4. #404
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    A conspiracy is something done behind closed doors. The owners have been pretty vocal for the past two years about their extreme distaste in the just expired CBA and that drastic change was needed. This isn't a conspiracy, it's out there right in front of all of us. This is hardline labor negotiations 101. They don't like the current arrangement and they have the leverage and resources to win the fight. To win this one they're going to simply use the most important resource they have, time. Based on what I've seen in terms of offers from the league in publications, it's not bad at all. It's no where near where the players were but let's face it, the party is over. This isn't 2005. Unemployment is at 20%, social aids are being cut and taxes are being hiked on the middle class. The NBA makes their money off the middle class and the middle class is under siege by the economy and government doings. The middle class is shrinking and the dollar is inflating. They're smart men, they're looking to the future, not the past. I think if the players fail to cave all through the winter and then finally come to the table later in desperation you're going to see what happened to the NHLPA happen to the NBAPA. The NHLPA ended up settling on an offer that was way worse than the Owner's initial offer but not only that, they also lost an entire year of work and no doubt killed a lot of their endorsement money because hockey interest in the states got so bad that only OLN would pick up games.

    I don't doubt that for a second. But what if they are able to hold out longer? What if they can hold out for two or three seasons? What if they can hold out until some of these owners are on the brink of losing previously fixed incomes? What if they can hold out until some of these owners are paying out costs with no sight of income in the near future? Until they are on the verge of having to declare bankruptcy on their asset?

    Its not something I endorse or want to see... but I think if the players are willing to hold out for a full season, leading into the following season they will win. Just like management unity is crucial to success so if player unity. The real question is who can stick together the longest... they both have alot to lose.

  5. #405
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote GarbageTime wrote: View Post
    What if they can hold out for two or three seasons? What if they can hold out until some of these owners are on the brink of losing previously fixed incomes? What if they can hold out until some of these owners are paying out costs with no sight of income in the near future? Until they are on the verge of having to declare bankruptcy on their asset?
    I think that's an impossibility, hence the Owners willing to play the waiting game and the players crying foul.

  6. #406
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote GarbageTime wrote: View Post
    I don't doubt that for a second. But what if they are able to hold out longer? What if they can hold out for two or three seasons? What if they can hold out until some of these owners are on the brink of losing previously fixed incomes? What if they can hold out until some of these owners are paying out costs with no sight of income in the near future? Until they are on the verge of having to declare bankruptcy on their asset?

    Its not something I endorse or want to see... but I think if the players are willing to hold out for a full season, leading into the following season they will win. Just like management unity is crucial to success so if player unity. The real question is who can stick together the longest... they both have alot to lose.
    I agree with your ideas but I disagree with the players being able to hold out longer. The reason is because the owner's largest expenses have been slashed or totally eliminated with the work stoppage while the TV revenues and merchandising (albeit probably taking a hit) continues to roll in. If 22 teams are truly losing money operating it doesn't seem unreasonable to think they will lose less money not operating while their other interests (outside basketball) continue their normal activiities.

  7. #407
    Raptors Republic All-Star Soft Euro's Avatar
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    For a completely different perspective from one of the top popular science writers and one of those Canadians:

    Malcolm Gladwell in 'Psychic Benefits' and the NBA Lockout "explains why owning a basketball franchise has always been a bad business — and ought to stay that way."

  8. #408
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I agree with your ideas but I disagree with the players being able to hold out longer. The reason is because the owner's largest expenses have been slashed or totally eliminated with the work stoppage while the TV revenues and merchandising (albeit probably taking a hit) continues to roll in. If 22 teams are truly losing money operating it doesn't seem unreasonable to think they will lose less money not operating while their other interests (outside basketball) continue their normal activiities.
    I never said that they would be able to, and I agree with you and Apollo that they will more than likely be unable to. I'm just stating that if they are.. they will 'win' (so to speak). If this lockout is as fierce as the media is making it, it will come down to a battle of wills.

    As to owners expenses, they still have other fixed costs (arena's, interest etc). TV revenues (assuming they have been paid in full, or without a clause that prevents payment under a lock out.... which I have no idea if they do or not) may keep coming in, but if the players stay on an extended lockout, networks and advertisers may think twice about how much they should or are willing to pay on their next deal.

    Then you have to consider the willingness of owners to want to keep an 'asset' that is costing them money with no foreseeable future income and a potentially decreasing asset value (ie. if players are not playing nobody will be willing to buy tickets, buy advertising etc and no one is going to want to buy a team, atleast at a fair value, if there is still a stirke/lockout).

    Then you also have the influence of big market teams that will consistently lose potential money.... which will likely be the first to want the lockout to end (NY, LA, Chicago etc).

    I really think them losing 'less money' without a season is very short term.

  9. #409
    Raptors Republic Superstar Puffer's Avatar
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    Thanks Soft Euro for the Gladwell link. He makes a lot of sense. Of course, his argument won't carry any weight in resolving the lockout, but it is probably accurate.

  10. #410
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    I liked it to. One can leave it up to Gladwell to take a subject out of a locked up context and reframe it.

  11. #411
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    The writing has been on the wall for a while that the 2011-12 season was in jeopardy and it's because everyone expected the owners to take a hardline stance in negoations. That's exactly what has happened so far and most people who have been following the CBA talks aren't surprised one bit. I definitely wouldn't call it a conspiracy. It's pretty far from that actually. Stern and the owners have been pretty transparent and have warned that they wanted a major overhaul of the system and were willing to miss games to achieve it.

  12. #412
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    Here's another little lockout tidbit:

    Wilson Chandler has signed with the Zhejiang Guangsha of the Chinese Basketball Association for the upcoming season. This particular signing is noteable because the CBA has ruled that they will not allow opt-out clauses for players who would want to return to the States and play assuming that there's NBA games this year. Chandler will be there for the entire year, even if the lockout is resolved. From the sounds of it however, I don't think he expects that to happen.

    Just another indication that we could be in for a full year of no NBA

  13. #413
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    March first is typically the deadline for a player to be waived by a team in order to be eligible to play for another team in the playoffs. So, if Chandler's deal runs through to April it sounds like he probably has no chance to have his cake and eat it too. If that's the case then this is no doubt a pretty bold statement by his camp on where negotiations are headed.

    My question would be that if the players are locked out for an entire season then what's their breaking point after that? October 2012?

  14. #414
    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    My question would be that if the players are locked out for an entire season then what's their breaking point after that? October 2012?
    If it goes on that long then the de-certification of the union becomes a feasible option for the players. Of course, that road is also uncertain and litigation is unpredictable.

    From the other side, at some point, missing seasons starts to do long-term damage to a league and, consequently, revenues and team valuations. It took MLB years to recover from the early 90s lockout and it still hasn't come back in softer markets. If they do lose the season (and I think it is a real possibility) it seems to me the incentives for both sides start to change in the spring of 2012

  15. #415
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    Default Lockout Optimism

    Chris Sheridan believes the lockout will be done early, and we won't lose a game:

    http://sheridanhoops.com/2011/09/05/...theyre-saying/

    Thought I'd share.. definitely a different outlook on the lockout since all we hear is that there won't be a season.

    Note: I got this link off of Doug's blog, so the credit for finding it goes to him.

  16. #416
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    "That was Nasty right? Cocked that Joint back and banged on 'em." -James Johnson

  17. #417
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    Chris Sheridan believes the lockout will be done early, and we won't lose a game:

    http://sheridanhoops.com/2011/09/05/...theyre-saying/

    Thought I'd share.. definitely a different outlook on the lockout since all we hear is that there won't be a season.

    Note: I got this link off of Doug's blog, so the credit for finding it goes to him.

    I was just about to post this.

    Here are the last three paragraphs - and most important in my opinion - for those who do not get through the entire article:


    I have been saying all along that there is too much to be lost by having a work stoppage that extends into the fall and forces the cancellation of games. And with the NBA coming off a fantastic season in which attendance, ratings and merchandise sales all skyrocketed, there is took much risk of punishing the product to go too far down the bumpy road the owners have chosen to take.

    At the end of the day, they have too much to gain by making a deal that gives them a significantly larger share of the pie that what they were getting under the old deal. And lastly, all of the principle players in the negotiations are reasonable and rational men. They are not interested in destroying what they’ve built up over the past several seasons, especially in 2010-11.

    So a settlement is coming, and I am here to tell you that it’ll likely come a lot sooner than most everyone else has been predicting. It’ll take a lot of back-and-forth over the remainder of September, but it can certainly get done when both sides can identify the middle ground and move there simultaneously.

  18. #418
    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    Chris Sheridan believes the lockout will be done early, and we won't lose a game:

    I guess if you agree with the underlying premise here that this is just posturing then perhaps this looks better but his analysis has three major assumptions in it (all of which may be incorrect):

    1. Everyone stands to lose more from a lockout.

    2. A 6-year deal is doable.

    ADD: Also, I believe it was Sheridan who was opining in the spring that there wouldn't even be a lockout because the money was to good for everyone. I think he may be misreading the situation (or so many others are).

    3. The owners won't go after a hard cap. This is the big one to me. He basically says the owners have to cave. It's just a red herring. Never be a deal with a hard cap. Um, why? Based on what? The NHL got a hard cap when everyone said the players would never agree. They did. After a lost year. He quotes not one source to back up his assertion the owners will cave on a hard cap but, on the other hand, you have Ted Leonsis and other NHL owners who we know (based on Leonsis' own words and Ric Bucher) telling the other owners that losing a season is worth it to get the cap.

    Sheridan may be right (and he obviously has sources) but this strikes me as some wishful thinking.
    Last edited by slaw; Tue Sep 6th, 2011 at 05:44 PM.

  19. #419
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    Such a tease...
    Eh follow my TWITTER!

  20. #420
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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    I guess if you agree with the underlying premise here that this is just posturing then perhaps this looks better but his analysis has three major assumptions in it (all of which may be incorrect):

    1. Everyone stands to lose more from a lockout.

    2. A 6-year deal is doable.

    ADD: Also, I believe it was Sheridan who was opining in the spring that there wouldn't even be a lockout because the money was to good for everyone. I think he may be misreading the situation (or so many others are).

    3. The owners won't go after a hard cap. This is the big one to me. He basically says the owners have to cave. It's just a red herring. Never be a deal with a hard cap. Um, why? Based on what? The NHL got a hard cap when everyone said the players would never agree. They did. After a lost year. He quotes not one source to back up his assertion the owners will cave on a hard cap but, on the other hand, you have Ted Leonsis and other NHL owners who we know (based on Leonsis' own words and Ric Bucher) telling the other owners that losing a season is worth it to get the cap.

    Sheridan may be right (and he obviously has sources) but this strikes me as some wishful thinking.
    Great counter-thoughts.

    While Sheridan may be correct in the numbers not being that far apart, there are major philosophical differences that are not going to be easily overcome.

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