View Poll Results: Should the players accept the current proposal by owners by Wednesday?

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  • Yes

    24 77.42%
  • No - not a good deal, keep negotiating

    3 9.68%
  • No - not a good deal, decertify

    4 12.90%
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Thread: The Lockout & the Raptors: Players approve CBA, Owners too! (1944)

  1. #581
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    This should be called the "Eddy Curry clause". I think this one is excellent but it's going to create even more chaos going into a highly shortened free agency period. For a guy like Colangelo, who is probably under cap by at least $10M and then able to create around another $10M by dropping a guy like Calderon, well, strap yourself in for a pretty exciting ride Raptors fans.
    I hope that Bryan doesn't start becoming a big buyer/spender for all the amnesty rejects from other teams. I say save the cap space and wait until 2012 to start using it. We'd be able to afford max contracts on guys like Paul or Howard, or use the extra money to make some lop-sided trades in the Raps favour that could include someone like Bargnani for example.

    The amnesty rule is nice, but it will become more difficult for teams to retain the top free agents outside of the amnesty guys. I can see Gasol, Nene or Chandler getting some more attention from a lot of teams that could not afford them prior to this clause being added.

  2. #582
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Warning, all my opinions are forthcoming.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_yl...meeting_100411

    Fisher said the players have agreed to reduce their share of the league’s basketball-related income from 57 percent in the previous collective bargaining agreement to 53. Union executive director Billy Hunter said the owners’ latest proposal had the players receiving 47 percent of the BRI, but Stern said the two sides discussed a 50-50 revenue split – “a concept, not an offer,” Stern said – that the players didn’t accept.

    CBSSports.com reported that Stern proposed a split that would have guaranteed the players no worse than 49 percent with a cap of 51 percent. The owners were reportedly prepared to sign off on the offer when the players proposed a deal that would have guaranteed them a minimum of 51 percent with a cap of 53. The league, CBSSports.com reported, rejected that offer.
    http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.c...-given-enough/

    In letter union sent to players today, Hunter and Fisher say: “Yesterday, the owners gave us an opportunity to back down. We refused.”… “Reducing our share of BRI by 7 points to 50% — a level we have not received since the early 1990′s — is not a fair split.”

    In letter Y! obtained, Hunter reminds players that they’ve offered owners $185M per year giveback worth $1.1 billion over 6 year deal…. “The clear message we have received from the players, and the one we will heed, is not to back down.”

    The contention of "we have not received that amount since the early 1990's" does not sound like a sound business decision. Times change, situations change, circumstances change. It actually sounds quite childish to be using that as an excuse. Next up is "well everybody else is doing it" I guess.

    If the league offers a 50/50 split minimum guaranteed with a cap at 51.5 and the players do not accept, I hope they are locked out for the year. No season, no paycheques - screw you. If the owners do not make the offer, I hope they cancel the season and bad things happen to them as well - screw you, too.

    It sounds like everything else is settled except this.

  3. #583
    Raptors Republic All-Star slaw's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post

    It sounds like everything else is settled except this.
    But it was ever the only real issue. All of the talk of hard caps was simply to get the players to move on the BRI split and all this other nonsense (Bird, S&T, etc.) is immaterial compared to the BRI split because that split drives everything. The cap numbers, the salary numbers - everything is driven off the BRI number. If there is a 50/50 split, that's a greater than $2 billion shift in cash from players to owners over the life of the CBA. That's an enormous top-line gain for owners and a huge bottom line loss for players. I would guess that's about as much money as they'll lose if the entire season is cancelled. Maybe more.

  4. #584
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote slaw wrote: View Post
    But it was ever the only real issue. All of the talk of hard caps was simply to get the players to move on the BRI split and all this other nonsense (Bird, S&T, etc.) is immaterial compared to the BRI split because that split drives everything. The cap numbers, the salary numbers - everything is driven off the BRI number. If there is a 50/50 split, that's a greater than $2 billion shift in cash from players to owners over the life of the CBA. That's an enormous top-line gain for owners and a huge bottom line loss for players. I would guess that's about as much money as they'll lose if the entire season is cancelled. Maybe more.
    Go back to previous posts. There were three main issues left to resolve over the weekend. BRI is definitely the most divisive in the negotiations. While none of the other issues are as important as the BRI they certainly held value and meaning for owners and players alike.

  5. #585
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    I hope that Bryan doesn't start becoming a big buyer/spender for all the amnesty rejects from other teams. I say save the cap space and wait until 2012 to start using it. We'd be able to afford max contracts on guys like Paul or Howard, or use the extra money to make some lop-sided trades in the Raps favour that could include someone like Bargnani for example.

    The amnesty rule is nice, but it will become more difficult for teams to retain the top free agents outside of the amnesty guys. I can see Gasol, Nene or Chandler getting some more attention from a lot of teams that could not afford them prior to this clause being added.
    I don't think Bargnani will be in the guillotine for multiple reasons. First off he's super talented, young and seven foot. He has value to this team and other teams. Maybe Casey can get through to him. He's never had a defensive specialist of this level working with him night and day... I'm as skeptical as the next fan but it seems like we're heading towards finding out for sure. Not only that but if they claw back existing contracts his contract drops $500K this season, $550K next season and $600k in the final season. Furthermore I feel his market value is higher than his Raptors fan value. He's an asset, one of the biggest on the team, his contract is manageable and so they're not going to cut him. Not to mention based on what Casey and Colangelo have said over the summer they're going to give Bargnani a good run at PF. He could be on his last chance depending on who you talk to but one last chance is long enough to keep him off the chopping block at the least.

  6. #586
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default Ken Berger, CBS Sports:

    People understand what's happening, right? The table is set for a deal to be agreed to by Sunday. If either side messes it up, inexcusable.
    Source: Twitter @KBergCBS

  7. #587
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Ken Berger is absolutely right.

    I think 51.5/52 is where the owners want to be anyways.

  8. #588
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Well I'm getting ready to dust off the fantasy keeper league. Maybe we can draft Sunday the 30th if they wrap this up on the weekend.

  9. #589
    Raptors Republic Starter RapthoseLeafs's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    I don't think Bargnani will be in the guillotine for multiple reasons. First off he's super talented, young and seven foot. He has value to this team and other teams. Maybe Casey can get through to him. He's never had a defensive specialist of this level working with him night and day... I'm as skeptical as the next fan but it seems like we're heading towards finding out for sure. Not only that but if they claw back existing contracts his contract drops $500K this season, $550K next season and $600k in the final season. Furthermore I feel his market value is higher than his Raptors fan value. He's an asset, one of the biggest on the team, his contract is manageable and so they're not going to cut him. Not to mention based on what Casey and Colangelo have said over the summer they're going to give Bargnani a good run at PF. He could be on his last chance depending on who you talk to but one last chance is long enough to keep him off the chopping block at the least.
    Great post Apollo.


    I do think AB's value is greater out there, then it is amongst some Raptor fans. As to a few points you mentioned, and others have - in this conjectured new CBA - these are my thoughts. Apologies if I repeat any of your points:

    • Andrea's value goes beyond any contribution to team numbers (without arguing that point). His intrinsic value also includes European fans, amongst Canadian supporters. As I understand, Andrea & Jose uniforms are top sellers over there.

    • The Amnesty clause – In this hypothetical proposal, removing Bargnani’s salary means MLSE has to pay his salary, plus pay someone to replace him - regardless of Cap benefits (or however it may be structured). And to suggest Raptors would remain 15 or 20 million under the cap (with Andrea’s salary providing the bulk), only seems to be a fantasy, as well as a public relations nightmare.

    • The Casey Effect – Raptors overall defense has been shoddy throughout the team, and not just because the token option at Centre, was bad at help defense. Poor defense was rampant throughout the team, so one has to wonder (and hope), that Casey can provide a significant change to this dynamic. Bargnani’s one-on-one defense has been argued quite a bit – I believe it was decent – so moving him away from the focus of offenses (or last line of defense, as a true Centre should be), may allow him to be more efficient not only in specific player defense, but his offensive game. It only stands to reason, that an opposing team would try to wear out a player (who's the #1 scoring option), by pushing his defense to a higher usage.

    • The Power Forward Option – Joey-H (I believe) and Tim argued about whether Andrea was pitted against the worst Big, while on the Court. I’m on Joey's side (go figure ... lol), as the Centre tends to be the least productive of the two (offensive speaking). Moving Andrea to the PF position means AB gets to focus more on his man-to-man defense, and less on being the final block in a team’s defense. To those who'll argue that Bargnani can't keep up to Power Forwards, one only had to watch him in the Eurobasket games, where AB looked lighter and quicker. Bulking up to be a Centre (for the 2010-11 season), took away his strengths – scoring, and quickness (for a 7 footer).

    • Rebounding – It’s my belief that for Andrea to take some pressure off himself, he needs to fight for more defensive rebounds. And I don’t mean against his opponents, but against his team-mates. Sort of like how Reggie seemed to rip rebounds away from his own players. Gaining confidence – by being more assertive with his own players – may give him the impetus to be more aggressive against opponents. Add the Casey factor, and “time to shut up and play harder” scenario, one could see improvement in this weaker aspect of his game. Whether that happens or not, my only real concern with rebounding, is whether Raptors as a TEAM, out rebound their opponents. If Andrea improves his defense, rebounding - where it doesn't hurt the team - will not seem as such a impediment to success.

    .

  10. #590
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Great breakdown. We all need to be supporting Bargnani this season. This is make or break time and I'd much rather him turn out to be someone meaningful to the team than another "swing and a miss".

  11. #591
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Great breakdown. We all need to be supporting Bargnani this season. This is make or break time and I'd much rather him turn out to be someone meaningful to the team than another "swing and a miss".
    I'm not arguing the fact that Bargnani should be used as an amnesty. I don't think he should to be honest. What I meant to say in my previous post was that I believe Bryan should save the cap space and not divulge in any free agents especially from the amnesty bonanza. Instead he should save the space and use that space to create a lop-sided trade in the Raptors favour, that could potentially also include Bargnani.

    As for Bargnani himself, the fear I have is that if he "misses" at the end of this up coming season then his stock will drop so much that I doubt Bryan could get anything useful from him. How can you sell someone to another team when one of the best defensive minded coaches couldn't turn him around? Some Raptors fans have a lot of faith in Bargnani being able to pull up his boot straps this year. I will gamble, but that's like going all in on a pair of 2's.

  12. #592
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    He can spend the money and pull the trigger on a trade he he so chooses to do so. The amnesty clause is going to allow the luxury tax teams to get below tax if they wish to do so. For everyone else they're either dropping a guy anyway to get into the free agency market or to make their future more flexible. I'm not sure trading Bargnani right now is going to be a huge success given the list of names who could hit the market. Also consider that the new MLE is probably going to be $3M and that max contracts will probably be reduced. New contracts will be lower and for fewer years.

  13. #593
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    A great point raised at the end of an ESPN article:


    It is entirely possible that a negotiation that is paused over $100 million or so in revenues could disintegrate into $100 million or so in legal fees.

    And once it goes there, who knows where it ends.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...alks-could-end
    This quote, to me, is directed at both the owners and players equally.

    It seems that both sides are edging closer but how close are they willing to get to the edge before they can't turn back?

  14. #594
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Default Larry Coon puts current situation in perspective

    The rhetoric following the negotiating sessions made it difficult to pin the two sides to an exact number, but it essentially boils down to the owners offering 50 percent, with the players drawing a line in the sand at 53 percent.

    Three percent. It’s the difference between an opening tipoff and an empty arena.

    For both sides, the negotiating process boils down to a simple question -- should we accept the offer on the table, or can we do better if we say “no” and wait?

    For the players, the cost of saying “no” can be easily quantified. The owners have offered the players 50 percent of BRI. This season’s BRI is expected to be around $4 billion, so the owners are offering the players a $2 billion slice of the pie. The players are holding out for a 53 percent share, so they’re looking for $2.12 billion.

    That’s $120 million that separates them. Of course, that’s just in year one. Over the course of a six-year agreement, assuming four percent growth per year, the total is closer to $796 million.

    To say “no” and wait means to suffer the consequences. Those consequences very soon will be cancelled games, meaning revenue will be lost that will never be recouped. The players will be faced with choosing between a 50 percent share of a larger pie, and a 53 percent share of a smaller pie. The longer they hold out, the more the pie will shrink.

    If we use the 1998-99 lockout as a guide, a canceled game costs each player 1/82nd of his salary. A full NBA regular season lasts 170 days, so each missed week represents 7/170th of a player’s income. So if a week’s worth of games is cancelled because they say “no” to the owners’ 50 percent offer, the players miss out on $82.4 million.

    The players are holding out for an additional $120 million in 2011-12, but holding out costs them $82.4 million per week. They would lose everything they stand to gain this season in less than two weeks. On Monday the league is expected to announce the cancellation of the first two weeks of the season, which will cost the players $164.8 million.

    Over a six year agreement, the players would burn through the $796 million in a little under 10 weeks. If they continue to hold out for 53 percent, and the owners hold firm at 50 percent, the players will reach the break-even point around December 16th. If the sides settle for 53 percent past that date, then the players would have been better off by taking the owners’ offer of 50 percent before games were cancelled.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/pos...alks-could-end
    The players should fire Billy Hunter and bring on Coon.

    The players have come down 4%.
    The owners have come up 4%.

    3% remains and if what Coon is writing is true, they better fight for every tenth of a percent they can get and eventually take what is given Sunday night - just my opinion.

    Coon ends with the money ball:

    This is one reason the owners have an advantage in this labor dispute -- they have a longer window of time to recoup their losses. An average player is likely to be out of the league in a few years, but an owner can hang on to his team for decades.

    The players and owners need to find a way to bridge the gap. They are close enough now that a creative solution -- such as a system where players are guaranteed to make no less than 51 percent and owners are guaranteed to pay no more than 52 percent -- can save an 82-game campaign.

    For players, holding out for a better deal simply doesn’t make sense.
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Thu Oct 6th, 2011 at 06:20 PM.

  15. #595
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Actually, this one might even be better than Larry Coon's (although he does thank him at the end for Coon's help). This is from eightpointnineseconds.com which is the Pacers TrueHoop network via ESPN (i.e. RaptorsRepublic equivalent).


    Make the following assumptions regarding the current collective bargaining negotiations:

    The informal offers reportedly proposed by each side fairly represent the basketball-related income (BRI) split that each faction would accept to approve a collective bargaining agreement (CBA) right now.
    The players are reportedly offering a deal that gives 53% to them and 47% the owners.
    The owners have reportedly offered a 50/50 deal.
    No costs have been excluded from BRI that weren’t excluded under the previous CBA.
    Both sides are assuming the same types of system changes in the new CBA.
    The 2011-12 BRI can be expected to be $4 billion.
    The CBA would be for six years.
    The expected BRI growth rate over the course of the next CBA is about 4% per year.
    In such a situation, the players and the owners stand $120 million apart for this upcoming season, but about $790 million over the course of the six-year deal. Discounting those cash flows at 5% would yield a net present value of $664 million — which is the $790 million in “today’s dollars.”

    The Math for the Players

    If the players took the owners’ 50/50 offer now, they would get $2 billion this year, which equals roughly $24.4 million per game for the players collectively. In other words, if the players reject this offer, for each game lost, the players give up $24.4 million. Following this logic, it will take missing 27 games games (something that would happen by mid-December) for the players to have lost the $664 million that they are standing firm in order to receive via the BRI split.

    Of course, that logic is flawed. The situation is infinitely more complex than that.

    One of the big traps that we consistently fall into is viewing the sides as two monoliths. It makes the math easier. But it also muddies the waters. The “players” are 400-plus individuals at different points in their careers with different financial positions, personal concerns and general outlooks on life.

    The truth is that the majority of these players will not be in the league for all six years of the next CBA. Only 48% of the players who played during the 2005-06 season played in 2010-11. In fact, 16% of the players from the 2009-2010 season were absent in 2010-11.

    While fighting for future generations is great in concept, this really is asking a huge price from the majority of the league for 3 percentage points.

    The Math for the Owners

    The owners will experience the same “lost income” reality that the players are facing. For the sake of argument (and simplicity), let’s assume they lost $200 million for canceling the preseason, and stand to lose another $250 million or so per month for missed regular season games if they don’t accept the players’ offer now. Just like the players, if they stick to their guns (at a 50% split) they will be have forfeited $664 million by some time around Christmas to get back the $664 million they seek.

    Also, like the players’ dillemma, it is infinitely more complex.

    These are 30 owners who are in different financial positions. Jerry Buss and James Dolan stand to lose huge sums, while others like Herb Kohl, Michael Jordan and perhaps Herb Simon won’t be as badly hurt. Depending on the math, it’s not impossible that they would be actually losing less money by not having games.

    Beyond that, the owners should recognize the 4 percentage points that are already theoretically “in their pocket.” Accepting the players position of 53% will still give them $160 million in savings this season (when compared to the 57% split of the previous CBA), and $884 million (in today’s dollars) over the course of a new, six-year CBA. Unlike the players, virtually all of these owners will be here at the end of the CBA. So the entirely of the deal is more relevant to all 30 of the current owners than it is to all of the more than 400 current players.

    This consideration means that for every 1/82 of the season they cancel, they forgo another $2 million in savings on top of their other costs.

    The Math for Both Sides

    Everyone realizes that, once games are canceled, there will be lasting effects well beyond the simple lost profit/wages associated with these games. Should a lockout alienate fans and sponsors, then future revenues will be lost as well.

    For every 1% reduction in the revenue forecast for the next six-year period, the NBA will lose about $263 million (in today’s dollars). This loss will be distributed more or less equally between the two sides and would be in addition to the lost income discussed above.

    Continuing to Fight Doesn’t Add Up

    Even if the owners are adamant about a 50% split, and the players have dug in at 53%, there is no math that says it is worth it to either side to lose games. I have tried to find a financial reason for either side to stand firm until the other breaks — no matter how long it takes — but I can’t. Not even if I take off my shoes.

    Come Monday, if games are canceled, neither side can win. It will only be a question of which side has lost less.

    But, as I’ve said before, even rational people will kill for money, but die for faith.

    Right now, they say they disagree on “the economics,” but they don’t. They can’t — not if they vaguely understand “the economics.” No, what’s happening here is an Uncle Milty contest masquerading as a disagreement over BRI splits.

    Well, boys, it’s come-to-Jesus time.

    It’s time to put away the egos and take out the calculators. It’s time to take David Stern’s pointer finger, Dwyane Wade’s audacity, Dan Gilbert’s comic sans, Kevin Garnett’s scowl, the hard cap, the second mid-level exception, the roll backs, and stick them all in Mrs. Sarver’s purse. And then bury it all deep in an abandoned mine shaft.

    It’s time for Stern to wrangle up the cats, and it’s time for player union heads Derek Fisher and Billy Hunter to bring in the rank and file. It’s time for each to end the rhetoric and the spin, and tell their constituencies straight up that not taking one more step towards each other is simply a lose/lose proposition.

    It’s time for everyone to learn and understand what “Pyrrhic victory” means.

    http://www.eightpointsnineseconds.co...a-little-math/
    No deal this weekend means egos are fighting.

  16. #596
    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
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    hopefully they can get it done this weekend, life without raptors basketball is really boring

  17. #597
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    .. What if the owners let the players own a certain percentage of the team ..?
    I've never really heard anything like this, but I know at my company I'm able to buy stock in my company.
    Thus making me feel more responsible for the well being of the company, but also putting me in a position to profit off of its well being.
    Maybe I've had one too many beers tonight, but it sounds like it could offer alot of incentives to the players and the owners, while dealing with the revenue splits as well.

    Someone who knows lots of stuff, please give feedback.
    "That was Nasty right? Cocked that Joint back and banged on 'em." -James Johnson

  18. #598
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    .. What if the owners let the players own a certain percentage of the team ..?
    I've never really heard anything like this, but I know at my company I'm able to buy stock in my company.
    Thus making me feel more responsible for the well being of the company, but also putting me in a position to profit off of its well being.
    Maybe I've had one too many beers tonight, but it sounds like it could offer alot of incentives to the players and the owners, while dealing with the revenue splits as well.

    Someone who knows lots of stuff, please give feedback.
    I don't really know a lot of stuff but my first thought on this would be the players would have to put up money to buy in - as any partner in an ownership group would have to do. Also, if they are owners, and the league has been losing money, they would also be on the hook for their percentages of the losses. The next issue would be the the league is comprised of 30 different entities working together under a charter-like system so if you have players taking a stake in all 30 teams, I do not think the owners would be up for that (they bought a detached house in a gated community, I don't think they want to tear them down to make a condominium complex). If the players bought a stake in individual teams, what happens when they are traded? Should Kobe Bryant own more of the Lakers than Derrick Caracter?

    I'm not trying to be a d!ck, more devil's advocate.

  19. #599
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I don't really know a lot of stuff but my first thought on this would be the players would have to put up money to buy in - as any partner in an ownership group would have to do. Also, if they are owners, and the league has been losing money, they would also be on the hook for their percentages of the losses. The next issue would be the the league is comprised of 30 different entities working together under a charter-like system so if you have players taking a stake in all 30 teams, I do not think the owners would be up for that (they bought a detached house in a gated community, I don't think they want to tear them down to make a condominium complex). If the players bought a stake in individual teams, what happens when they are traded? Should Kobe Bryant own more of the Lakers than Derrick Caracter?

    I'm not trying to be a d!ck, more devil's advocate.
    No absolutely, and this is all stuff I had considered.
    The ownership stakes would be written into the contracts, thus transfering when a trade happens.
    They would only own a portion of the team they play for, and YES, Kobe SHOULD own more than DC because Kobe is worth $70M to the Lakers Every season, and DC is maybe worth $50g.

    And the players being on the hook, would encourage them to take more of an interest in the well-being of the team, but also make them feel involved and responsible when that team is/isn't making money. Most teams lose money in the operating side. So perhaps they could split the operating business and the Sports related business into two seperate entities?

    And again, I think the owners would go for it, if it meant that some of the costs that they pay in CASH, could now be Covered in Stock in the team. Thus saving the owners cash out of their pocket, but keeping the players happy with investments that ultimately keep them from spending stupidly as well.

    Anyway was just a silly idea to start conversation. Annd it was created by beer.


    ADD Just thought of another reason why it wouldn't work ... it'd guarentee that guys would rather play for the New Yorks and the LAs if the percentage was written into the contract. Obviously 1% (or whatever) of the Lakers is worth 10x what 1% of the Sacramento would be worth. BAD idea. haha

    ADD2 Unless it was left flexible and negotiable, and only given to the Star players, who actually make that team money. Another way to bring down overall salaries, but still show appreciation to the guys who deserve it.
    Last edited by Joey; Fri Oct 7th, 2011 at 09:11 AM.
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  20. #600
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    One more thing would be what happens players leave the league? Or those players who do 10 day contracts? Or rookies who don't get extended?

    From one of the links above.

    The truth is that the majority of these players will not be in the league for all six years of the next CBA. Only 48% of the players who played during the 2005-06 season played in 2010-11. In fact, 16% of the players from the 2009-2010 season were absent in 2010-11.

    While fighting for future generations is great in concept, this really is asking a huge price from the majority of the league for 3 percentage points.

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