View Poll Results: Should the players accept the current proposal by owners by Wednesday?

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  • Yes

    24 77.42%
  • No - not a good deal, keep negotiating

    3 9.68%
  • No - not a good deal, decertify

    4 12.90%
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Thread: The Lockout & the Raptors: Players approve CBA, Owners too! (1944)

  1. #941
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    However, this might only lead to more fringe franchise players getting max money - although guys like Brand and Bosh are getting it now as well.
    And this is what I was asking earlier .. whats being done to stop these owners from giving Eddy Curry $10M or $12M if, at the time, they feel he deserves it, and then he goes and f*cks the dog for 4 years?
    Or stopping them from giving Joe Johnson a MAX deal, after he's been an All-Star for 5 years in a row?

    The only thing that would fix this is Non-Guaranteed Contracts, and I don't see it happening.
    The players argue, and point to the NFL, where servicable, good, contributing players, are being released from their contract simply as a money saving move, and ultimately having nothing to do with their performance on the field.

    The system will remain broken long after these CBA negotiations. It will still be up to the owners to exercise Fiscal Restraint, and they have shown time and time again, they are NOT capable of doing that.
    Last edited by Joey; Wed Oct 19th, 2011 at 04:01 PM.
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  2. #942
    Raptors Republic Superstar TheGloveinRapsUniform's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    This might be the answer to my 53% BRI divided by 30 with a payroll of $70.7M for each team.

    I think making this a quasi cap with 2 roster spots for minimum contracts, first 2 years of rookie deal, lowering minimum number of roster spots to 12, and removing years played from the max deal formula (i.e. X million per season is a max contract) should offer more than enough money to go around.

    However, this might only lead to more fringe franchise players getting max money - although guys like Brand and Bosh are getting it now as well.
    ok im on the fence now.
    so you mean larry coon is saying that with the hard cap, the mid level players wont have anything left for them?
    so essentially, lebron, wade and garnett are fighting for themselves and the interest of the mid-level players?
    i dont know which side to take anymore.

  3. #943
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote tbihis wrote: View Post
    ok im on the fence now.
    so you mean larry coon is saying that with the hard cap, the mid level players wont have anything left for them?
    so essentially, lebron, wade and garnett are fighting for themselves and the interest of the mid-level players?
    i dont know which side to take anymore.
    I think that is a fair statement.

    The average salary is around $5M but the median is around $2.3M.

    I guess the issue is, as Coon says, most guys are not deluding themselves about a max deal but they all hope to get a mid-level - and who wouldn't at $35M over 5 years.

  4. #944
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    I think word "some" is the key word in that tweet. How many is "some"? It would also help if we had an idea which owners had this position.

    I think the "some" are those losing money and those who feel they stand to lose money soon. The big market owners are probably the ones who want no part of a season long lockout.

  5. #945
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    I think the "some" are those losing money and those who feel they stand to lose money soon. The big market owners are probably the ones who want no part of a season long lockout.
    Agreed.

    Which makes the entire thing even more difficult to read, because there is clearl a divide amongst the owners, as well as within the players ranks.

    Seems like there are 2 teams; only it's not Owners vs. Players.
    Almost like 'Some Owners'+'Some Players' vs. 'Some Owners'+'Some Players'.
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  6. #946
    Raptors Republic All-Star ezz_bee's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    I think that is a fair statement.

    The average salary is around $5M but the median is around $2.3M.
    I'm still not sure why we seem to use averages/means more than using the Median number. I find the medians to be more reflective of what's going on then averages in a lot of cases.

    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    I think the "some" are those losing money and those who feel they stand to lose money soon. The big market owners are probably the ones who want no part of a season long lockout.
    I think that that's probably a fair guess about which owners are on what side, but it'd still be nice to have a better idea of the numbers. If it was all of the teams that lost money last year than it would be more reflective to say "most" or a "majority". To me "some" implies less than half, although probably more than "a few".
    "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

  7. #947
    Raptors Republic Starter jimmie's Avatar
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    Quote ezz_bee wrote: View Post
    I can agree that the negotiations could be framed under "game theory" but I don't see how it equates to the Prisoner's dilemma specifically.

    The PD has only three outcomes for each prisoner

    1) GO free (if they rat out the other prisoner who stays silent)
    2) Short sentence (if they stay silent and the other prisoner stays silent)
    3) Mid-term prison sentence (if they stay silent and the other prisoner stays silent)
    3) Long term sentance (if they stay silent and the other prisoner rats them out.

    What PD demonstrates is that collectively, the prisoners will do the best if they both stay silent. They both get the short sentence. HOWEVER, because each prisoner had to act without know what the other prisoner is doing as an individual it makes to most sense to rat out their partner, because then their worst case scenario is the mid-term sentence and possible to get off scott free. However, BOTH individuals are likely to choose this option and therefore BOTH get the mid-sentence. Thus they are both worse off had they both kept quiet.

    The Prisoner's dilemma does not apply to the NBA for a number of reasons.

    1) Choices: In the PD both sides face the SAME choices, with the SAME consequences. This is NOT the case with the NBA negotiations. Theoretically it could be possible to frame the corresponding choices with corresponding outcomes to each side, but I don't think they work with this case. IF you could demonstrate that they do have corresponding choices with corresponding outcomes then I would rethink this point, but I think that it would very difficult without reducing the actions/consequences to such a vague abstraction that it isn't really meaningful.

    EDIT: found a scholarly source that does this have quoted below with the prediction it makes

    2) Power: in the Prisoner's dilemma BOTH parties have Equal power to make decisions.

    3) Symmetry: The Prisoner's dilemma is described in game theory as a symmetrical game where the payoffs for playing a particular strategy depend only on the other strategies employed, not on who is playing them.

    4) Number of times the game is played: In the PD, the game is, and can only be played once. The prisoners can only make 1 choice, aka choose 1 strategy and stick with it. In the NBA each meeting is an individual game; however, both players are aware of the choices/strategies the other players used in the PAST (previous meetings/games) and use that information to make decisions on how they will act in the PRESENT game/meeting.

    In my opinion the "game" being played in the NBA negotiations is more like the Ultimatum Game.


    The ultimatum game, like PD the ultimatum game can only be played once.

    In terms of trying to reduce the complex negotiation that is the NBA lockout, I think the Ultimatum game is the most accurate, however, it is played multiple times, with the role of the player making the offer switching between the two parties. The outcome of the Ultimatum game would lead to a general 50/50 split of the money. However, the ultimate game doesn't take into account a couple of key information. 1) The others have other costs, which may make them more likely to want more than the 50%. 2) The players are coming out of a previous agreement wherein they had a 57% of that split. I think that whatever the outcome of the negotiations, they will be within a close enough range of the 50/50 to uphold the results of the ultimatum game. Unfortunately, this doesn't provide us with any new or meaningful insights in to the negotiations.

    To get more meaningful insights the best method would to use Metagame Analysis which has the theoretical framework to analyse and give outcomes for something as complex as the NBA negotiations. However, A LOT of time is needed to satisfy the methodology, and although possible would be very difficult and time consuming for someone without at least an undergrad in math (which I don't have).

    Here is a scholarly paper on Professional Sports labour negotiations and game theory

    In the paper they do frame the negotiations in the form of the PD



    I still think that the Ultimatum game is more reflective game though.



    If we combine the outcomes offered by BOTH the prisoner's dilemma and the ultimatum game, we can predict that they will eventually come to a 50/50 split although reaching the point where they are willing to agree on the split will be very difficult to come to, and will be very tenuous (neither side will be willing to meet in the middle for very long).

    although these predictions will probably be perceived as having been met once the negotiations are complete (whenever that is), to me they seem like the kind of answers we'd get if asked a psychic. If we had any mathematical model nerds on the site, they could probably give us juicier predictions on what will happen.

    You've been tasked!

    Thanks! Saved me a lot of typing (and thinking!). ;-)
    Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

  8. #948
    Raptors Republic Starter jimmie's Avatar
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    "This was more in relation to Jimmie's idea that players are not the product. While it may be fans come to watch NBA basketball. More fans come, and are willing to pay more, to watch certain players (or combinations of players) play NBA basketball. And when its all said and done, thats where the real money is."

    You're still not getting it. If Lebron and Wade are not playing in the NBA, their cache as "elite players" will decline significantly. While they still might factually be the best, the fact that they aren't playing in the best league, competing against the rest of the best, etc. will render that label meaningless. Fans are not going to shift over the the Euroleague just b/c Lebron is playing there, and it doesn't automatically make the Euroleague the best league in the world. As Apollo stated, it's about availability -- casual fans are going to watch what they can easily watch -- local and network cable -- and cheer for who they identify with; likely their hometown team. If anything, it's the hardcore fans who might still care what kind of stats Lebron is putting up for Zalgiris (and also engaged enough to notice how much a ticket costs relative to the product on the floor) not the casual one. The casual fan will be too busy buying a new Jonas V jersey, slurping back $11 beers, and asking his neighbour what a "travel" is, all while texting his buddies about what a great time he's having at the game.
    Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

  9. #949
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote jimmie wrote: View Post
    You're still not getting it. If Lebron and Wade are not playing in the NBA, their cache as "elite players" will decline significantly. While they still might factually be the best, the fact that they aren't playing in the best league, competing against the rest of the best, etc. will render that label meaningless. Fans are not going to shift over the the Euroleague just b/c Lebron is playing there, and it doesn't automatically make the Euroleague the best league in the world.
    No, I don't think you are getting it actually jimmie ...

    You think you'd be Considered the best League in the World when Adam Morrison and Luke Ridnour are the best players in your teams? Come on man.
    Who's the 'rest of the best' when all the 'best' are gone?
    Mediocre Scabs.
    Which leaves your league, Mediocre.

    We're not just talking about a few guys leaving the NBA jimmie. And we've said this numberous times.

    How much money does Luke Walton make the LA Lakers? Not much. Doubt he even 'earns' his salary.
    How much money does Kobe Bryant make the LA Lakers? Makes Buss 3X his Salary every year.

    And what does ANY of that have to do with fans watching on the TV?
    Advertising money? Teams don't get any of that. Networks do. Networks pay the teams for the Rights.
    You think Networks will pay nearly as much for a LA Lakers without Kobe and Pau?
    Hell No.

    Pretty sure the Knicks are starting to charge ALOT more 'this' season for TV rights, as well as tickets, because they got Amare and Carmelo. Which makes perfect sense. I guarantee you more people in New York started following the Knicks BECAUSE of the Amare and Carmelo.
    Last edited by Joey; Wed Oct 19th, 2011 at 07:09 PM.
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  10. #950
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Or it could be you're reading into it to much and it could be that the person on the inside didn't take a head count at all. I don't think we should draw conclusions based on one word. Berger could have received only a simple a one sentence text message for all we know.

  11. #951
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Or it could be you're reading into it to much and it could be that the person on the inside didn't take a head count at all. I don't think we should draw conclusions based on one word. Berger could have received only a simple a one sentence text message for all we know.
    Good point.Let's hope that after 16 hours last night, and however many more today, they are at least on the same page. :S

    I'm pretty sure everything gets voted on as well, so if its only a few, hopefully its a non-issue.
    Last edited by Joey; Wed Oct 19th, 2011 at 07:05 PM.
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  12. #952
    Raptors Republic Starter jimmie's Avatar
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    No, I don't think you are getting it actually jimmie ...

    You think you'd be Considered the best League in the World when Adam Morrison and Luke Ridnour are the best players in your teams? Come on man.
    Who's the 'rest of the best' when all the 'best' are gone?
    Mediocre Scabs.
    Which leaves your league, Mediocre.

    We're not just talking about a few guys leaving the NBA jimmie. And we've said this numberous times.

    How much money does Luke Walton make the LA Lakers? Not much. Doubt he even 'earns' his salary.
    How much money does Kobe Bryant make the LA Lakers? Makes Buss 3X his Salary every year.

    And what does ANY of that have to do with fans watching on the TV?
    Advertising money? Teams don't get any of that. Networks do. Networks pay the teams for the Rights.
    You think Networks will pay nearly as much for a LA Lakers without Kobe and Pau?
    Hell No.

    Pretty sure the Knicks are starting to charge ALOT more 'this' season for TV rights because they got Amare and Carmelo. Which makes perfect sense. I guarantee you more people in New York started following the Knicks BECAUSE of the Amare and Carmelo.
    I don't know who you think these "numerous players" who will leave the NBA are, or where they will go. First of all, there aren't that many jobs. Second of all, not everyone wants to go play for half the money -- or much less -- in Europe, or China, or wherever, be isolated from their families, have much less marketability at home when they're playing abroad, etc. If they want to sign Kobe and Lebron for $100M apiece, fine. That still doesn't make any of those leagues "the best" any more than it makes the NBA "less" than the best.

    I have no idea what your mention of Luke Walton and Kobe have to do with anything.

    Fans watching on TV = increases the value of the NBA brand. Indirect revenue, if you will. There doesn't have to be a direct exchange of money for a transaction to have value to a brand. Fans in North America will not be watching the Euroleague games on specialty cable in the middle of the night on a regular basis, regardless of who goes there from the NBA. Casual fans, likely never. Hardcore fans, maybe during playoffs. If there's an option here in North America, that's where the casual fan will be.

    I think it's time I step away from this one. Don't think we're ever going to agree, and it's tiring repeating the same argument over and over again.
    Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

  13. #953
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    Quote jimmie wrote: View Post
    "This was more in relation to Jimmie's idea that players are not the product. While it may be fans come to watch NBA basketball. More fans come, and are willing to pay more, to watch certain players (or combinations of players) play NBA basketball. And when its all said and done, thats where the real money is."

    You're still not getting it. If Lebron and Wade are not playing in the NBA, their cache as "elite players" will decline significantly. While they still might factually be the best, the fact that they aren't playing in the best league, competing against the rest of the best, etc. will render that label meaningless. Fans are not going to shift over the the Euroleague just b/c Lebron is playing there, and it doesn't automatically make the Euroleague the best league in the world. As Apollo stated, it's about availability -- casual fans are going to watch what they can easily watch -- local and network cable -- and cheer for who they identify with; likely their hometown team. If anything, it's the hardcore fans who might still care what kind of stats Lebron is putting up for Zalgiris (and also engaged enough to notice how much a ticket costs relative to the product on the floor) not the casual one. The casual fan will be too busy buying a new Jonas V jersey, slurping back $11 beers, and asking his neighbour what a "travel" is, all while texting his buddies about what a great time he's having at the game.
    we can't say that for sure. But regardless what we do know is that when the best players leave their team, their team doesn't sell as many tickets or make as much money. When a star arrives at a team, that team sells more tickets and makes more money.

    Your last quote more or less proves my point. Notice how you didn't say "the casual fan will be too busy buying a Julian Wright jersey, slurping back $11 dollar beers..etc." but rather Jonas who people think (hope) will be a star.

    The 'next star' is still a player. Just like the 'previous star' was a player. While any combination of players will bring some fans, the star players bring more fans at a higher cost.

  14. #954
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default Progress made, talks to resume Thursday.

    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    Good point.Let's hope that after 16 hours last night, and however many more today, they are at least on the same page.
    Well, here's the update:

    The NBA and NBPA met for over 24 hours on Tuesday and Wednesday.

    While no major breakthrough was made, two sources say progress was made in terms of the split of basketball-related income.

    The two sides have moved closer to a “50-50 split, give or take a point with ranges based on revenue performance,” one source said.

    'System issues' have been at the forefront of the talks and have been cited as a bigger issue in getting a deal done. Included in this area of talks are the luxury tax and the limitation of Bird Rights. The players believe a strict luxury tax will create a de facto hard salary cap.

    George Cohen said that the 24 hours of talks over the past two days have been "direct and constructive."

    “I think everyone is expecting miracles. It is still going to take some time even with a mediator,” one league executive said. “I don’t think Cohen has solved disputes in two days.”

    The two sides will reconvene on Thursday at 2:00 PM EST.
    Source: realgm.com

  15. #955
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    Random thought. Three leveled cap -- Soft Cap - Tax - Hard Cap.

    So something along the lines of:

    Soft Cap wherever (55 - 60 mil or so). A 1 or 2 :1 Tax at 10 - mil above that (65 - 70 mil). Then a Hard Cap 10 - 15 mil above the tax.

    This way at the soft cap it makes it tougher to just spend above, while allowing a team to resign its players or get that last peice. A tax for those teams that do this or the ones who regularily stay there (and adjust the way this tax is distributed because it looks retarded.) Then a hard cap to make sure those few that don't care don't go astronomical on spending.

    Cut down or narrow down exceptions and implement the Carmelo Anthony rule.

    Everybody gets close to what they want, all while no one getting what they actually want.

  16. #956
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    http://www.jest.com/video/51816/nba-lockout

    Hey, how much for a Snickers?

    "250 thousand dollars"


  17. #957
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default Owners make same BRI offer again:

    Cohen said players and owners met in a variety of settings during mediation, sometimes in subcommittees, other times in groups as large as 40 people.

    "Everyone is extremely focused on the core issues, the difficult issues that confront them," he said.

    Sources told ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard that the owners are once again offering a 49-51 range of the basketball-related income to the players. That is essentially where the players would get a minimum of 49 percent of BRI or a max of 51 percent depending on how much revenue the league takes in that year.

    Although some of the system issues differ in this offer by the owners, the players are likely to reject a 49-51 band just as they did two weeks ago.

    Also, while the sides haven't agreed to anything, the owners have been open to accepting a $5 million midlevel exception, sources told Broussard. That's down from $5.8 million under the old agreement but up from the $3.4 million the owners had been offering.
    Source: ESPN.com

    "The discussions have been direct and constructive," Cohen added while seated next to deputy FMCS director Scot Beckenbaugh, "and, as far as we are concerned, we are here to continue to help assist the parties to endeavor to reach an agreement."

    How direct? How constructive? Enough that there might have been movement Wednesday on the split of BRI (basketball-related income), one of the most hotly contested issues of the lockout.

    In fact, a source briefed on the talks told NBA.com's David Aldridge that there won't be a problem on the split. Dallas owner Mark Cuban reportedly was helpful in moving the owners and the players -- each of whom had wanted 53 percent of BRI (the old split favored the players 57/43) -- toward the middle.
    Source: NBA.com

  18. #958
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default Trades involving bad contracts and other practices realted to them discussed:

    There reportedly was substantive discussion, too, of the practice of trading bad contracts. Besides attaching "the expiring contract of ..." to the front of some guys' names, teams have been able to swap underperforming players for helpful talent thanks to the cap impact -- and then re-sign some of the traded players.
    Source: NBA.com

  19. #959
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    Default Owners continue to hammer out revenue sharing

    For anyone suggesting that the owners were flat out being deceitful about making a better effort at revenue sharing:
    At about 5:15 p.m., commissioner David Stern, league president Joel Litvin and Boston Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck left the talks to attend an owners' planning committee at another midtown hotel. That meeting had been postponed so that the owners and players could meet with the mediator.

    Talks between the league and union continued, however, with deputy commissioner Adam Silver and San Antonio Spurs owner Peter Holt, and the other owners on the league's labor committee.

    Grousbeck chairs the planning committee, which is charged with developing a new revenue sharing system for basketball. More robust revenue sharing is a key aspect of the economic reforms the NBA intends to implement this offseason.
    Source: ESPN.com

  20. #960
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default Labour dispute officiating more effective than on court officiating

    Finding common ground and bleeding emotion out of the room are considered important initial steps toward reaching a compromise. That's particularly true here; another source told NBA.com that, without the mediator on site, Tuesday's meeting easily could have deteriorated to an abrupt end.

    So keeping the two sides talking and defused is valuable. Getting them to stay at it Thursday afternoon -- after the full Board of Governors session -- and beyond is Cohen's next task.
    Source: NBA.com

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