Upgrade at the three?

[ezz_bee]

I was looking through other NBA rosters to see what 3's we could possible trade for when a came across 2 possible free agent signings.

Shane Battier: I'm sure Memphis wants to resign him but can they afford to? (Will be 33 on Sept. 9th)

Tayshaun Prince: Don't think Detroit resigns (turned 31 on February 28th)

The big question for both these guys is their age, I know their will be a few guys who say that "If they aren't part of our future then they aren't worth it" however I think BOTH of these guys are capable of playing a key role on any team for at least the next 3 years or more. I could be wrong but it seems to me that NBA players are having longer careers on average than they used to (feel free run down some stats on it for me! ). Although we will still need to upgrade the SF 2-3 years down the road, we benefit from the veteran leadership now and can probably trade the guys when they have 1 or 2 years left on their contracts if we need to. The idea is that they provide good locker room environment and shouldn't be too expensive. I'm thinking 4 years at 8-9 mil a year? Ideally i'd like 3 @ 9 or 4 @ 6, but I don't think that is realistic.

In the mean time it allows us to focus on our 2 main questions PG and C. By signing Price via free agency it leaves us all of our tradeable assets (Calderon/*Barbosa/Bargnani) to upgrade those positions. Furthermore it gives us 2-3 more years to trade for a younger SF or pick one up in the draft. It also allows time for Kleiza to heal up and see what he's got at which point he becomes a valuable piece either for the bench (@ 4.6 mil/ year) or to trade.

I'd love to pick up Battier as he is EXACTLY what this team needs IMO, but I don't think Memphis lets him go. Prince on the other hand is a great Vet whose has a solid all around game and could have a bit of a resurgence on team with good chemistry, like our raptors, don't think Detroit will be too keen to keep him and I think his market value is pretty low right now.

This isn't a home run move, but it does make us better without having to give up much (just a little financial flexibility, but so much that it handcuffs us in the future) and provides more veteran leadership which we don't have a lot of if reggie isn't resigned and barbosa is used as trade bait.


edit: i even think we could offer prince a 5 year @ 6-7 mill a year without killing our cap space

[Quixotic]

@ ezz_bee:

Any good veteran player signing what might possibly be their last contract will probably have to be overpaid to sign with the Raptors. That said, your 4 years at 8-9 mil per or 5 years at 7 per (6 is doubtful) will probably get the deal done but will not be a good investment for the Raptors, and here's why:

(I'm assuming the owners and players settle on a CBA that is somewhere between what the they both want. That is, it'll probably be a bit more financially restrictive than the current one, but will function quite similarly. I'm also assuming that none of the current contracts get moved (so they stay on our payroll until they expire), as it's a moot exercise to plan for trades that may never get made, and that we're holding onto Bayless, DeRozen, James Johnson, Ed Davis and Alabi each time we have the option to not pick up an option or make a qualifying offer.)

Assuming a 7 mil commitment per year (let alone 8-9), that will most likely cap us out for 2011-2012. After renouncing every potential free agent not aforementioned (bye bye Reggie, Julian, Sonny, Joey and Alexis), it would put us at a ~$54 mil payroll for only 11 players (by comparison, this year's salary cap was $58 mil). In 2012-2013, it'd be ~$52 mil payroll for only 10 players (bye bye Barbosa). In 2013-2014, it'd be ~$41 mil payroll for only 7 players (bye bye Calderon, Bayless and Alabi).

I'm sure you can imagine, when you take into account our draft picks, our minimum salary players for filling out the roster, and any money paid to keep our free agents, we will probably be capped out for the next 3 years. Our roster would largely depend on our draft picks and existing youngsters to keep improving, as there wouldn't be any room until 2014-2015 to add any impact free agents, if even then due to salary bumps to players coming off their rookie scale contracts and any mid-level players we had been adding via whatever exceptions are available under the new CBA. We'd be far better off only adding players that would actually grow with the team and still be useful by the time we contend, or keep the payroll compact until right before our young core's salaries balloon so we can actually add an impact player when we're contending. Any veterans should be signed to the small, short contracts.

[RaptorFan (proud?..)]

Quixotic hit it on the head.
"If you build it, they will come" is the way you need to approach veterans these days. If you want to get them for cheap, than they need to see that they're going to have a legitimate chance of being a part of something special. This is why the Celtics, the Mavs, and the Heat can draw in vets. Someday we're going to need to bring in those savvy guys on their last stretch, but we have plenty of pieces that need to be set into place beforehand.

[ezz_bee]

I think both Prince and Battier will still be contributors when we make our run to compete. Also we don't know for sure how the new CBA will affect contracts coming out, I agree with you that we can't do it if it handicaps us in the way you have outlined. I do think that without evans/barbosa/calderon/ and even bargnani, who do with have on our team who is over 25? Bringing in a vet who still has a bunch of years left and who is also a quality locker room guy could speed up our rebuild time to the point where we are turning heads by 2012-2013. Battier i think is still in too much demand, but I wouldn't be surprised if we can get a pretty good value for prince. Toronto despite he worse record this year has to look better than the dysfunctional pistons locker room he was a part of last year. If we can get prince on a contract that doesn't hand cuff us financially--I know you think that we can't, and maybe you're right--would you do it? 'Cus I would at least throw him an offer, worst case scenario is he says no.

[RaptorFan (proud?..)]

If we could do it for the kind of contract he'd except in, say, Boston, I would do it for sure.

[Quixotic]

I think both Prince and Battier will still be contributors when we make our run to compete. Also we don't know for sure how the new CBA will affect contracts coming out, I agree with you that we can't do it if it handicaps us in the way you have outlined. I do think that without evans/barbosa/calderon/ and even bargnani, who do with have on our team who is over 25? Bringing in a vet who still has a bunch of years left and who is also a quality locker room guy could speed up our rebuild time to the point where we are turning heads by 2012-2013. Battier i think is still in too much demand, but I wouldn't be surprised if we can get a pretty good value for prince. Toronto despite he worse record this year has to look better than the dysfunctional pistons locker room he was a part of last year. If we can get prince on a contract that doesn't hand cuff us financially--I know you think that we can't, and maybe you're right--would you do it? 'Cus I would at least throw him an offer, worst case scenario is he says no.

They might still be "contributors" but for the price, I'm sure someone with younger legs could be had. They're going to be in their mid-30s by the time we're serious contenders, realistically speaking.

Regarding the CBA, I think we can make certain assumptions that will point to the scenario I illustrated. If you imagine the owners on one side of the spectrum (i.e. hard cap) and the players on the other (i.e. things stay the same), with the middle being a compromise (i.e. maintaining a soft cap but lowering it), I don't see a scenario where a 5-year $7 mil deal for an aging vet won't handicap our team. People tend to forget that despite our near last place record, our payroll is one of the higher ones in the league, unlike the other cellar dwellers. If the CBA stays the same, we're capped out. If the CBA keeps the soft cap but lowers it, we're even more capped out. If the CBA scraps a soft cap and goes with a hard cap of say $70 mil, then we have more room initially BUT there's the added potential where, if all our youngsters turn into stars, we won't be able to keep all of them when they need new contracts.

I do agree that our team is too young, BUT that isn't a good reason to overspend on a vet. I'm the camp that agrees we should bring Reggie back but only if his new salary is ~$3 mil or less. There are plenty of vets that can be good role models and help our youngsters develop; it's just that they're not exactly household names. If you look at a lot of the top teams, they pay $10+ mil for their stars, and then fill out the rest of the team with cheap young draft talent or veteran role players for no more than $4 mil per , and often for $1-2 mil per. Our problem has been over-paying for role players. It's very apparent when you compare the players we get at each price level with what top teams have.

Whether or not the Raptors look better than the Pistons, even if that were true, there are plenty of teams that look even better than the Raptors. Also, as I mentioned before, you have to consider whether or not they will want to spend 5 years living in Toronto. Don't get me wrong. I love Toronto. It's my hometown, where I grew up, and for the longest time after moving to the US I didn't think I'd like another city. But even though Toronto is probably better than most if not all of the other NBA locations, I find myself considering jobs in NYC, Boston or Cali simply because I'm used to the US now it's where all my friends and family are. Cities like DC, Philadelphia, Houston, etc. can't hold a candle to Toronto, but they'll probably be preferred over Toronto. If anything, I think it'd be more likely for a younger player to want to play in Canada than someone who is playing his last stretch of basketball and thinking about settling down somewhere.

I really wouldn't be comfortable with Prince on anything longer than a 2-year contract. It really is more an issue with contract length than the salary itself. Assuming a similar soft cap, the key is making sure his contract expires BEFORE DeRozan and any other young core players need new contracts. That way, we can add an impact free agent before their salaries balloon. If Prince expires after the salary ballooning, then letting Prince walk won't help and we'll only be able to add whatever we can trade him for, which will be much less than what we could add via free agency with cap space.

[ezz_bee]

Great response, and I'd have no problems w/ signing a two year deal if that's an option (although I think we both think that's unlikely). Although I agree w/ your analysis about the new CBA having a lowered soft cap I wonder if we have different expectations on whether we will choose/have to exceed the soft cap anyway. However I'll concede the argument based on unknown gm/ownership questions. Just out of curiosity if you offered prince a two year deal, how much per year?

[pesterm1]

Why battier... why not RUDY GAY ??? :S

[footarez]

I think both Prince and Battier will still be contributors when we make our run to compete. Also we don't know for sure how the new CBA will affect contracts coming out, I agree with you that we can't do it if it handicaps us in the way you have outlined. I do think that without evans/barbosa/calderon/ and even bargnani, who do with have on our team who is over 25? Bringing in a vet who still has a bunch of years left and who is also a quality locker room guy could speed up our rebuild time to the point where we are turning heads by 2012-2013. Battier i think is still in too much demand, but I wouldn't be surprised if we can get a pretty good value for prince. Toronto despite he worse record this year has to look better than the dysfunctional pistons locker room he was a part of last year. If we can get prince on a contract that doesn't hand cuff us financially--I know you think that we can't, and maybe you're right--would you do it? 'Cus I would at least throw him an offer, worst case scenario is he says no.

I'd do it very fast before he changes his mind...Having a guy like Prince on your team is more than most people realize...he is a good teammate and he played great his career..well maybe not this last season but can you really blame him?So to answer your question exaclty -YES,I would throw him an offer,even an offer with as much money as I can afford without "handcuffing myself in future".

[mcHAPPY]

James Johnson can hold down the three for a year before the Raps can draft again in 2012. The 2012 draft is looking ridiculous for SF assuming 1 and done are still allowed:

Harrison Barnes
Terrence Jones
Perry Jones III
C.J. Leslie
Michael Gilchrist
Adonis Thomas
LeBryan Nash
Quincy Miller

[ezz_bee]

James Johnson can hold down the three for a year before the Raps can draft again in 2012. The 2012 draft is looking ridiculous for SF assuming 1 and done are still allowed:

Harrison Barnes
Terrence Jones
Perry Jones III
C.J. Leslie
Michael Gilchrist
Adonis Thomas
LeBryan Nash
Quincy Miller

fair enough, I guess I was just trying to add some veteran presence and I thought the 3 spot would be a good place since we don't have anyone there we are currently trying to develop. Even if we draft a SF next year they'll still need at least a year and probably 2 to get into the grove so playing behind a vet might still have some benefits.

[Quixotic]

Great response, and I'd have no problems w/ signing a two year deal if that's an option (although I think we both think that's unlikely). Although I agree w/ your analysis about the new CBA having a lowered soft cap I wonder if we have different expectations on whether we will choose/have to exceed the soft cap anyway. However I'll concede the argument based on unknown gm/ownership questions. Just out of curiosity if you offered prince a two year deal, how much per year?

Regarding "different expectations on whether we will choose/have to exceed the soft cap anyway," perhaps I'm misinterpreting you (do let me know if I am), but if the new CBA works the same way as the current one, it's not an issue of choice. For instance, using the current CBA and current soft cap of $58 mil as an example, if our payroll (after all cap holds are calculated) after July 1st is ~$53 mil or higher, the most we'd be able to offer is a ~$5 mil per year deal to just one player, which is not a very attractive offer for an impact free agent. This is why if we want to add an impact player to a team via free agency, we would have to do it before both DeRozan and Davis get re-upped for eight figures per year. The window of opportunity is quite small, and once missed, we have to rely on mid/late-1st round draft picks (assuming we're in contention) or somehow swindling another team in a trade.

As for how much for Prince, if it was only for two years and assuming we aren't looking to sign anyone else for more than the veteran's minimum, anything up to the max we could offer under the cap would be fine, whether that's $7 mil, $8 mil or $9 mil per. It won't matter because it would expire by the time we needed the cap space.

Between the next two drafts, if we can find potential all-star talents at two of the PG, SF and C positions, then fill the last major need via free agency during the 2013 off-season, we would be looking pretty. Imagine DeRozen, Barnes/McAdoo/Jones, Davis and Kanter joined by Chris Paul or Stephen Curry (I chose to fill our C need first because I don't think there are any worthwhile 2013 free agent centers available). Okay, I know, I know, but if we don't plan for things like that, it definitely would never happen. =)

[mcHAPPY]

fair enough, I guess I was just trying to add some veteran presence and I thought the 3 spot would be a good place since we don't have anyone there we are currently trying to develop. Even if we draft a SF next year they'll still need at least a year and probably 2 to get into the grove so playing behind a vet might still have some benefits.

I'd agree with you in wanting to add veteran presence, however, two things to keep in mind in my opinion:

1) The young guys we have will eventually become veterans or, at the very least, young guys with experience. For the 2012-2013 season, DD and JJ will be in their fourth years next season, Amir will be in his 8th season (6 of which he played), ED will be third year, Kleiza would be 27/28, Calderon (if still here) would be 31. The current roster will have gained some experience and this does not take in to account filling out the roster with Darrick Martin or Kurt Thomas type players, free agent signings, or possible trades.

2) Your veterans or leaders need not be your starters, best players, or high minute reserves. Two examples come to mind: i) Bosh in Toronto was obviously not a leader and ii) the collapse of MIL this season (which the players have cited as a lack of leadership) with Ridnour, Stackhouse, and Thomas all gone - none were starters or played a great amount (minus Ridnour) but certainly impacted the team.

[Maleko]

Between the next two drafts, if we can find potential all-star talents at two of the PG, SF and C positions, then fill the last major need via free agency during the 2013 off-season, we would be looking pretty. Imagine DeRozen, Barnes/McAdoo/Jones, Davis and Kanter joined by Chris Paul or Stephen Curry (I chose to fill our C need first because I don't think there are any worthwhile 2013 free agent centers available). Okay, I know, I know, but if we don't plan for things like that, it definitely would never happen. =)

This makes sense.

[Tim W.]

There is really no point to adding a veteran at the three who is going to make the team marginally better. What difference is he going to actually make? Help them win maybe a few more games? While taking playing time away from young players who need it to develop.

No, if you're going to do what the Raptors seems to be doing, you have to go all in and not hedge your bets. Go with the young players and develop them.