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Thread: DRAFT LOTTERY on TSN2 at 8:30pmEST TUESDAY, MAY 17

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Default DRAFT LOTTERY on TSN2 at 8:30pmEST TUESDAY, MAY 17

    The 2011 Draft Lottery will be held on Tuesday, May 17 at 8:30pm EST.

    http://www.tsn.ca/tsn2/schedule/?cha...5-17-2011&tz=0

    As everyone - hopefully - knows, the Raptors finished with the 3rd worst record and therefore the third most combination of balls - 156 of the 1000. The Raptors cannot select less than 6th. Here are the odds:

    1st - 15.6%
    2nd - 15.7%
    3rd - 15.6%
    4th - 22.6%
    5th - 26.5%
    6th - 4%

    Here is a link for all the odds for all the picks for all the teams.

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    CROSS YOUR FINGERS GUYS! If we win this lottery i'm going to scream like a school girl

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    Raptors Republic All-Star e2thed's Avatar
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    I say we win 4th or 5th to be realistic, don't get your hopes up. I can see some bullshit like Utah getting 3rd.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    The Raptors cannot select less than 6th. Here are the odds:

    1st - 15.6%
    2nd - 15.7%
    3rd - 15.6%
    4th - 22.6%
    5th - 26.5%
    6th - 4%

    Here is a link for all the odds for all the picks for all the teams.
    So the Raptors finished with the 3rd worst record... but have better odds of landing the 5th pick than they do the 3rd?
    Stuff like this is why the lottery always comes out weird.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote ThatPatty wrote: View Post
    So the Raptors finished with the 3rd worst record... but have better odds of landing the 5th pick than they do the 3rd?
    Stuff like this is why the lottery always comes out weird.
    If you click the link, MIN has the highest chance of getting 1st at 25% but they have a 35.7% chance of picking 4th - go figure.

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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    If you click the link, MIN has the highest chance of getting 1st at 25% but they have a 35.7% chance of picking 4th - go figure.
    Ugh. That's nuts. 2nd worst record is also most likely to get the 4th pick. 3rd and 4th worst are most likely to get the 5th pick. 5th worst most likely to get the 6th pick. The odds seem to work out from Pick No. 6 down. I guess it has something to do with the number of eligible teams. But if you finished 3rd worst, your highest odds should be getting the 3rd pick.

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    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote ThatPatty wrote: View Post
    So the Raptors finished with the 3rd worst record... but have better odds of landing the 5th pick than they do the 3rd?
    Stuff like this is why the lottery always comes out weird.
    The worst team in the league has a 25% chance of landing the #1 pick.
    Or a 75% chance of NOT getting it.

    When phrased this way, sounds kinda crappy doesn't it? haha
    In Masai we Trust.

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote ThatPatty wrote: View Post
    Ugh. That's nuts. 2nd worst record is also most likely to get the 4th pick. 3rd and 4th worst are most likely to get the 5th pick. 5th worst most likely to get the 6th pick. The odds seem to work out from Pick No. 6 down. I guess it has something to do with the number of eligible teams. But if you finished 3rd worst, your highest odds should be getting the 3rd pick.
    Keep in mind everyone has a shot at picking in the top 3 and no one can slip more than 3 places.

    When the first three teams have been determined, the remaining picks are given out based on regular season record with the worst teams getting the highest picks.
    The lottery is only used to determined for the first 3 picks and then it is based on record. So if 6 picks 2nd and 2 picks 1st and 1 picks three, the order goes 2, 6, 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8,....., 14

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    if we pick 5th , pick brandon knight or jonas if hes still available

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    Raptors Republic Starter albertan_10's Avatar
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    It's retarded how it's set up. why would we have a better chance of getting 4th or 5th than 1st through 3rd. Make sense to anyone?

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    One more day, it's felt like forever for May 17 to arrive. Fingers crossed, this franchise deserves some good fortune.

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    Raptors Republic Rookie huskies2raps's Avatar
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    Quote Tank wrote: View Post
    One more day, it's felt like forever for May 17 to arrive. Fingers crossed, this franchise deserves some good fortune.
    amen
    Your ex came by; you can call me Jonas Valanciunas, cause I'm the king of rebounds!

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    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote albertan_10 wrote: View Post
    It's retarded how it's set up. why would we have a better chance of getting 4th or 5th than 1st through 3rd. Make sense to anyone?
    Because everybody has a shot at 1, 2, and 3. Once the top 3 picks are determined, it is then based on season record with nobody able to slip more than 3 spots.

    This means that:

    for the Raptors to get 6th three teams with better records will have to move ahead of them along with CLE and MIN;

    to get 5th 2 teams with better records have to move ahead with 1 of CLE or MIN selecting in the top 3;

    to pick 4th 1 team with a better record has to get ahead of them and both CLE and MIN are in the top 3 .

    (by 'move ahead' I mean they have to pick 1, 2, or 3 with CLE and MIN staying ahead of them after the lottery).
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Mon May 16th, 2011 at 03:26 PM. Reason: further clarification

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    Raptors Republic All-Star hateslosing's Avatar
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    The way it is set up is quite reasonable. This is the thing people need to understand: they only draw for the top three and every other position is decided by record. So the Raptors have the third best odds of getting the number one pick and the best odds of getting the number three pick. If you just look at the Raptors odds in a vacuum it seems weird because we are most likely to get the 5th pick. You need to look at it from a team by team perspective: The Raptors have the best chance of getting the third pick because they have the third most ping pong balls. The teams below the raptors have more combined ping pong balls so it is more likely that one of those teams will take the top three spots.

    ex: Washington is less likely to get a top three pick than Toronto because Washington has less balls. Toronto is still probably going to end up with a pick in the range from 4-6 because the sum of the ping pong balls possessed by teams positioned below them is greater than the number of ping pong balls Toronto has. Washington has an even greater chance of ending up in the 4-6 range since They have even less balls than Toronto.

    Mathematically:

    #Tor>#Wash
    #Tor<#wash+#Sac+#NJ+#Det....+#Hou
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    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    Anyone else nervous we're going to pick 3rd or 4th and Irving and Kanter will be picked before us? I don't want to leave all this with Williams or Walker to show for it all.
    @jerboat

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    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    I know quite a few of you are high on Kemba and Williams but c'mon
    @jerboat

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    Look at it this way The Raptors have nearly a 50% chance of landing in the top three, which is the third highest percentage of all the teams in the lottery.
    Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
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    Raptors Republic All-Star e2thed's Avatar
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    Toronto will get 4th pick I see the future.

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    2nd overall !!

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    Quote hateslosing wrote: View Post
    The way it is set up is quite reasonable. This is the thing people need to understand: they only draw for the top three and every other position is decided by record. So the Raptors have the third best odds of getting the number one pick and the best odds of getting the number three pick. If you just look at the Raptors odds in a vacuum it seems weird because we are most likely to get the 5th pick. You need to look at it from a team by team perspective: The Raptors have the best chance of getting the third pick because they have the third most ping pong balls. The teams below the raptors have more combined ping pong balls so it is more likely that one of those teams will take the top three spots.

    ex: Washington is less likely to get a top three pick than Toronto because Washington has less balls. Toronto is still probably going to end up with a pick in the range from 4-6 because the sum of the ping pong balls possessed by teams positioned below them is greater than the number of ping pong balls Toronto has. Washington has an even greater chance of ending up in the 4-6 range since They have even less balls than Toronto.

    Mathematically:

    #Tor>#Wash
    #Tor<#wash+#Sac+#NJ+#Det....+#Hou
    Ah, it's so hot when you speak mathematically. =)

    I was waiting for someone to explain it clearly, and you saved me the need to do so.

    Anyway, Raptors are winning the 1st overall pick. My voices told me so.

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