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DRAFT LOTTERY on TSN2 at 8:30pmEST TUESDAY, MAY 17

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  • #31
    Thought I'd fuel the fire a bit.

    From Wikipedia:

    To determine the winner, fourteen ping pong balls numbered 1–14 are placed in a standard lottery machine and four balls are randomly selected from the lot. Just as in most traditional lotteries, the order in which the numbers are drawn is not important. That is, 1-2-3-4 is considered to be the same as 4-3-2-1. So although there is a total of 24 (4!) orders in which the balls numbered 1-2-3-4 can be picked, they are all treated as the same outcome. In doing this, the permutation of 4 balls from 14 becomes the combination of 4 balls from 14. That is, the total of 24,024 (14! / 10!, or 14x13x12x11) possible permutations is reduced by a factor of 24, to 1,001 combinations (or 14! / (10! x 4!)). Of these, 1 outcome is disregarded and 1,000 outcomes are distributed among the 14 non-playoff NBA teams. The combination 11-12-13-14 (in any order that those numbers are drawn) is not assigned and it is ignored if drawn; this has never occurred in practice.
    Then:

    The lottery is conducted with witnesses verifying that all 14 balls are represented once as they are placed in the lottery machine. The balls are placed in the machine for 20 seconds to randomize prior to having the first ball drawn. The remaining three balls are drawn at 10-second intervals. NBA officials determine which team holds the winning combination and that franchise is awarded the #1 overall draft pick. The four balls are returned to the machine and the process is repeated to determine the second and third picks.
    Are the teams made aware beforehand of what combinations they've been assigned, or does it really just come down to "NBA officials" determining who gets the winning combination?

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    • #32

      The future.

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      • #33
        joey_hesketh wrote: View Post

        Imagine the dunk contests in practice between Demar and Derrick... ugh.
        that would be a highlight reel 24/7.

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        • #34
          huskies2raps wrote: View Post
          If the Raps get the 1st or 2nd pick, wow........wow.....wow.......would definitely help with the rebuild moving forward.....count me in on a nice alternate black Irving or D Williams jersey lol
          The other possibility with the #1 or #2 is moving it. Assuming enough other teams think this is a 2 player draft (Williams and Irving) and you think it's a 5 player draft, you'd be able to move down to 3, 4 or 5 and get the guy you want plus a decent extra asset, which might be better for Toronto long-term.

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          • #35
            Have posted it before but here it is again, odds or not, here are the number of times the 1st pick in the lottery was won by position since 1991 (when the current format went into effect)

            Worst: 2 (and one of those times the team was tied for worst record - Cleveland- 2003)
            2nd: 4
            3rd: 4
            4th: 0
            5th: 5 (including the Raps in 2006)
            6th: 2
            7th: 1
            8th: 0
            9th: 1
            10th: 0
            11th: 1 (Orlando for a back-to-back after getting Shaq in 1992)
            12-14: 0.

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            • #36
              slaw wrote: View Post
              The other possibility with the #1 or #2 is moving it. Assuming enough other teams think this is a 2 player draft (Williams and Irving) and you think it's a 5 player draft, you'd be able to move down to 3, 4 or 5 and get the guy you want plus a decent extra asset, which might be better for Toronto long-term.
              I HATE trading down. The majority of the time you just end up with a worse player. Ask Portland if they would trade their 3rd pick for the 6th pick again. Unless they were happy with Martell Webster or Deron Williams.
              Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
              Follow me on Twitter.

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              • #37
                My opinion on this draft is that it really doesn't matter where the Raps pick, so long as it's top 3. Irving, Williams and Kanter are basically equal in my book, and the drafting of any of them = draft success.

                Best case scenario? Toronto drafts 1st or 2nd, with SAC picking third. I believe in this case, with both Irving and Williams off the board, that it's possible that SACs pick could be had by trading them Bargnani. If such a trade doesn't go down, no harm done, and the Raps still draft 1 or 2.

                Now. On to more exciting things. I'm going to repost some part of a bit I posted a few months back concerning lottery odds. The thread can be found here (along with a more detailed explanation):

                http://raptorsrepublic.com/forums/sh...t-Lottery-Odds

                The following is alternate view of looking at who is most likely to draft where. The argument for such a view: looking at positional odds versus team odds. Basically, you don't look at the 3rd worst team, see that they have the highest odds at the 5th spot. You look at the 5th spot, and see who has the highest odds. For example. Because the highest odds for the 4th spot go to the worst team, the 4th spot is predicted to fall to Minnesota. Who has highest odds for 5th? The fourth worst team. Who has highest odds for 2nd overall? Well, actually, the Raps, and here's why: while their odds are higher for 4th and 5th, other teams have even greater odds than the Raps at those spots, thereby precluding Toronto from landing there. The next highest, then, is 2nd overall. How does it all shake down?

                The following is the "J-Hoss Official Lottery Prediction."

                the worst team would draft 4th;
                the second worst team would draft 1st;
                the 3rd worst would draft 2nd;
                the 4th worst would draft 5th;
                the 5th worst would draft 3rd;
                the 6th worst would draft 6th;
                the 7th worst would draft 7th;
                And so on down the rest of the list according to their position.
                It just so happens that the 3rd worst are the Raps - who will draft 2nd, and the 5th worst are the Kings, who will draft 3rd. Therefore, the JOLP falls in line with my articulated best-case scenario. What a coincidence.
                Last edited by jeff_hostetler; Tue May 17, 2011, 02:48 PM.

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                • #38
                  Tim W. wrote: View Post
                  I HATE trading down. The majority of the time you just end up with a worse player. Ask Portland if they would trade their 3rd pick for the 6th pick again. Unless they were happy with Martell Webster or Deron Williams.
                  I wouldn't advocate trading down in the NBA draft as a general rule but in a year where there is no clear franchise-changer and there are serious questions about all of the picks you have to try and maximize value and maybe the best way to do that with the #1 pick is to end up with Kanter at #3 and another asset. Also, looking at Toronto's current situation where they need 5 or 6 "top 8" players, if you could get two of those guys instead of one, well, why not?

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                  • #39
                    With the 1st/2nd pick in the 2011 NBA Draft the Toronto Raptors Select... DERRICK WILLIAMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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                    • #40
                      could we send anyone to the draft lottery to represent the raptors? cause i saw Danny Granger there last year( i think)

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                      • #41
                        if we did in fact get the first pick and did in fact draft derrick williams i will vomit on my newborn
                        @sweatpantsjer

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                        • #42
                          Raptors_ wrote: View Post
                          could we send anyone to the draft lottery to represent the raptors? cause i saw Danny Granger there last year( i think)
                          we sent demar a year or two ago. BC is going this year.
                          @sweatpantsjer

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                          • #43
                            slaw wrote: View Post
                            I wouldn't advocate trading down in the NBA draft as a general rule but in a year where there is no clear franchise-changer and there are serious questions about all of the picks you have to try and maximize value and maybe the best way to do that with the #1 pick is to end up with Kanter at #3 and another asset. Also, looking at Toronto's current situation where they need 5 or 6 "top 8" players, if you could get two of those guys instead of one, well, why not?
                            Yes, there are some questions about all the players, but it doesn't mean that the there's not going to be a dropoff in talent as you get lower. There's a far better chance of drafting a good player at 1 than 5. And however much I like Kanter, if I get the top pick, I get the best player. In the NBA, it usually comes down to which team has the best player, not the most good players.
                            Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
                            Follow me on Twitter.

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                            • #44
                              Sending BC again with the hopes he hits #1 again.

                              Lightning usually doesn't strike in the same place
                              Let's get the pieces in place to become Thunder 2.0!
                              Entourage: Harvey - "E (BC) was right, there's genius in this (Bargnani)"
                              Ari - "You wanna buy it?"
                              Harvey - "I do, for a dollar"

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                              • #45
                                Tim W. wrote: View Post
                                Yes, there are some questions about all the players, but it doesn't mean that the there's not going to be a dropoff in talent as you get lower. There's a far better chance of drafting a good player at 1 than 5. And however much I like Kanter, if I get the top pick, I get the best player. In the NBA, it usually comes down to which team has the best player, not the most good players.
                                But what if you think Kanter is the best player? What if you know he will be there at #3? #4? And both those teams want desperately move up. You still just make the pick and take Kanter at #1? Of course not. You extract value. That's all I'm noting. Of course, if you're not sure Kanter (again just a for instance) won't be there at the spot you're moving down to then you don't do the deal. How in the world is getting the player you want for less money, plus another asset in any way controversial?

                                As an aside, I am no draft expert but I don't see anyone talking about Irving and Williams as "best players" in playoff series.

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