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Thread: Draft Prospect Similarity Scores

  1. #1
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    Default Draft Prospect Similarity Scores

    Hey all,

    This is Ian from Hickory-High. Forgive me if you've already come across this somwhere else, but I wanted share a new tool I've built. It's a system for making statistical comparisons between draft prospects and players drafted from other seasons. The system produces similarity scores, something Basketball-Reference and others have used in the past. The players are compared across a number of categories and a score is generated on a scale of 0-1000, 1000 being a perfect match. For example, Kemba Walker's closest comparables were Troy Bell-892, Eric Maynor-884, and Devin Harris-882.

    It's similar to systems that Kevin Pelton and John Hollinger use, although mine is obviously a lot less refined. I believe Hollinger's system is a straight projection of NBA performance. Pelton's system compares college players to NBA players to try and predict a career arc. Mine is simply a snapshot of a moment in time: Player A's college production most closely resembles Player B's. It doesn't account for things like potential, personality, athleticism, etc.; other than how they manifest in a player's statistical production. For that reason it's limited in projecting how successful a player may be. I also haven't figured out how to convert Euroleague stats, so at this time it just covers college players.

    I have a table of contents page set-up with an explanation of the whole system. All the results are finished and can be accessed in a spreadsheet from that page. I've also built individual pages for all of the 40 prospects I included this season. Each page has links to a few profiles and then a table showing the 10 closest comparisons. Again, the whole thing has some limitations, but I think the positives still outweigh the negatives. Hopefully it can be a useful tool, or at the very least an interesting read.

    Thanks!

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    nifty
    @jerboat

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    Interesting. The players similar to Brandon Knight were not surprising, especially one guy in particular.
    http://www.hickory-high.com/?page_id=1769
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    This is pretty cool. One thing I think I would factor in though is years played in college. Comparing a senior with a freshman doesn't seem fair.
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    Interesting. The players similar to Brandon Knight were not surprising, especially one guy in particular.
    http://www.hickory-high.com/?page_id=1769
    No kidding eh? None of those players are really known for their passing and leadership abilities.
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    Good observation Employee on the years of experiece. A commenter on the site suggested age, which led to an immediate face palm. Not sure how I let that slip through the cracks. I'll definitely be including it next time around. I think age is probably a little more informative than college class, but between the two it should be accounted for somehow.

    A lot of people have been asking about including more physical measurements, like wingspan and vertical leap. The problem was that those numbers are available for a much smaller set of players. Also they aren't a complete set of measurements for every player. Many of the players pick and choose which measurements to participate in at the combine meaning you'll get incomplete numbers. I'd like to figure out how to incorporate that somehow down the road though.

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    Interesting reads. Of interest on the similar playstyles:

    Darius Morris @ PG to Armon Johnson, John Wall, Westbrook and Darren Williams. His stock has been rising as perhaps the most true traditional style PG in the draft.
    Tobias Harris (Luol Deng, Wilson Chandler, Gerald Henderson and Rudy Gay stand out)
    Kawhi Leonard (Brackens/Rudy Gay/Luol Deng)
    Kenneth Faried surprised to see his correlation to Emeka Okafor. Taj Gibson sure, but Emeka surprising.
    Klay Thompson to OJ Mayo Kareem Rush and Ben Gordon.
    and Kyle Singler to Tayshaun Prince and Wilson Chandler.

    and the more scary correlations...
    Jimmer to Reddick and Quincy Douby.

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    Ha. And isiah Thomas is most similar to Derrick Rose and Johnny Flynn.
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    Remember it doesn't mean his potential is the same as Derrick Rose. It means his college production was comparable.

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    Quote Levy2725 wrote: View Post
    Remember it doesn't mean his potential is the same as Derrick Rose. It means his college production was comparable.
    Wasn't dissing, just an observation i found pretty funny.

    I think it's a pretty neat tool. Obviously not something anyone would want to rely on. Some things that would make a huge impact is level of competition and how good the rest of their teammates are. Which I don't know how you would do. Maybe that's something years of experience/age could help out with.
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    why don't we trade for a another pick and pick up darius morris and then draft kawhi leonard with our pick?

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    I don't know about you, but I'm SHOCKED that Jimmer Fredette closest comparison was JJ Redick.... knock me over with a feather....

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    Quote DirtyMikeSeaver wrote: View Post
    I don't know about you, but I'm SHOCKED that Jimmer Fredette closest comparison was JJ Redick.... knock me over with a feather....
    Jimmer is a chucker. The kid cant do nothin but jack up three's. He is going to be terrible in the nba

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    Quote Raptors_ wrote: View Post
    Jimmer is a chucker. The kid cant do nothin but jack up three's. He is going to be terrible in the nba
    Guys have had very good NBA careers with just that skill. I don't think the Raptors should take him, but there are a lot of contenders that would love to have a guy like Jimmer coming off the bench.
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