yertu damkule wrote:
i don't buy the 'too much of a gamble' bit...in a weak draft, where the talent level is fairly even once you're past the top two picks, can anyone really be considered a 'gamble?' sure, there are guys who are slated as late first rounders that you wouldn't pick in the lottery simply because there are clear-cut better options available...but realistically, the guys grouped 3-12 are pretty close in ability. there's talk of kemba slipping past 10...and also going 3rd. how often does that happen? and it's the same with half a dozen guys in the lottery, the range is all over the place. i've always felt that you pick the best player for your particular situation, regardless of where he's ranked. if you like leonard, but feel he's not 'worthy' of the 5th (but is, somehow, worthy of the 7th, for example), then just take him (unless someone's giving you something of value to swap picks, and you KNOW he'll still be available with that later pick).
Agreed the overall consensus after the top 2 drops off. I personally agree with that but also see another gap after 3 with Knight being a better prospect then the next group. With the lockout looming lots of potential lottery picks have moved up no doubt. I agree with your thought on if you like a player and feel he's best for your team to pick him. I just can't see BC taking that big risk based on his length of contract. Kemba, Kantar and Leonard look to be solid but unspectacular pro's while Vesley could be incredible or bust.
FWIW - i do like leonard, but fear he may be one of the biggest beneficiaries of some of the top prospects dropping out. he's got all the skills (even offensively, i don't think he's nearly as unpolished as others), but what bothers me is that he never really jumped out while at SDSt as 'the guy.' in his interviews, he seems very humble, and i know he's got a rep as a hard-nosed, get-after-it player...i just didn't see much of that in college. maybe it's just his style...not flashy, team-oriented, does the dirty stuff, etc. might be a perfect complementary piece ('cause you know you aren't getting a franchise-changer with the 5th pick in this draft).