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Draft Profile: Kemba Walker

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  • Seeing the PG comparison thread Apollo just started made me think back to the times when Stoudamire was destroying the league from the point.

    Stoudamire, for being as good as he was, was only 5'10", came in as a senior, and was drafted with the 7th pick.

    The games that Stoudamire and Walker play are exceptionally similar. So I'm throwing this out there (I'm a big-time Walker fan, so it should be no surprise what I think the answer might be): why can't Walker be as good as Damon Stoudamire?

    Here are their stats (per game) from their junior year in college.

    Stoudamire:
    Minutes: 33.3..FG%: 44.8..3pt FG%: 35.1..FT%: 80.0..Rebs: 4.5..Asts: 5.9..T/O: 3.2..Blks: 0.1..Stls: 1.6..Pts: 18.3

    Walker:
    Minutes: 37.6..FG%: 42.8..3pt FG%: 33.....FT%: 81.9..Rebs: 5.4..Asts: 4.5..T/O: 2.3..Blks: 0.2..Stls: 1.9..Pts: 23.5

    You could look at Stoudamire's assist numbers and say he was a better distributor, BUT, Walker turned the ball over less. And I don't know what the calibre of players were that Stoudamire played with, but I know that other than Lamb, Walker didn't really play with quality scorers. That is, he shouldn't be significantly faulted for being the team's best offensive option simply because he played PG.

    Also, other than stats, I don't know what kind of player Stoudamire was in college, but I can't see what intangibles he might have had then that Walker doesn't have now (such as leadership, clutch, toughness and competitiveness). And for all the concern over Walker's height, he's basically 2 inches taller than Stoudamire.

    Comment


    • I don't think there's any particular reason why Kemba couldn't be as good as Damon or better, but that applies to all the top prospects and every year there are players who don't perform up to expectations, including Damon, I would imagine (in terms of WS/48, he was slightly below average over his career and only slightly above average in 5 of his 13 seasons). Only hindsight tells us why a player did or did not meet expectations.

      If you're going to use their college stats as a way to project their careers, then you also have to look at, for example:

      Damon's 2P% (2PT/36): 49.0 (6.53), 48.4 (5.13), 56.6 (6.77), 48.9 (7.42)
      Kemba's 2P% (2PT/36): 52.2 (7.38), 43.0 (7.96), 47.1 (11.95)

      Damon's 3P% (3PT/36): 40.6 (4.60), 38.2 (4.22), 35.1 (8.20), 46.5 (7.95)
      Kemba's 3P% (3PT/36): 27.1 (1.91), 33.9 (3.36), 33.0 (5.30)

      Damon's FG% (FGA/36): 45.5 (11.13), 43.8 (9.35), 44.8 (14.97), 47.6 (15.36)
      Kemba's FG% (FGA/36): 47.0 (9.29), 40.3 (11.32), 42.8 (17.24)

      - How much do we credit Kemba's poor %s for being forced to take more shots per 36 mins?

      - Damon's overall shooting improved a notch in his last college year before the draft; do we assume Kemba would have done the same had he stayed an additional year?

      - How much will Kemba benefit from being taller than Damon?

      Despite never having a 2P% worse than 48.4 during college, Damon's career 2P% in the NBA was a paltry 43.0 (and career 3P% was 35.7). How much of his 2P% drop was due to being undersized and how much was due to playing against tougher competition? If we really used Damon's college career as a comparison, wouldn't you say Kemba's NBA 3P% will be in the high 20s/low 30s and his 2P% will likely be in the low 40s as well?

      Or he could be less successful than Damon and end up a 6th man on decent teams.

      Or he could be more successful than Damon and end up a rich man's Tim Hardaway. Who knows. =P
      Last edited by Quixotic; Tue May 31, 2011, 11:58 AM.

      Comment


      • Let me rephrase then: Why couldn't Kemba Walker be as good as Damon Stoudemire was when he played for Toronto?

        Comment


        • I Like kemba and what he brings. leadership and winning qualities. Also, i dont understand why everyone is tripping over his height. he's athletic (39.5 inch vertical) and measure similarly to Chris Paul. Not saying that the two are the same in terms of playing style, but Chris Paul is an elite point guard is the same height as Kemba.

          Also, i really prefer kemba or knight over kanter, even if he slips. Kanter is unproven and we already have a log jam at the forward positions with Amir, ed, and bargs all under contract. Id rather much see ed playing with bargs than with kanter and bargs.

          Comment


          • jeff_hostetler wrote: View Post
            Let me rephrase then: Why couldn't Kemba Walker be as good as Damon Stoudemire was when he played for Toronto?
            I don't think the rephrasing changes anything. :-p My point (in the beginning of my post) was that it's kinda pointless thinking of reasons for why someone can't be as good as someone else. The obstacles usually come after they've played a game in the NBA.

            Also, as an amusing note, if you go by Win Shares, Damon actually had some of the best years of his career in Portland. In two of the three years he played for Toronto, his WS/48 was very below average.

            Comment


            • DaveKim wrote: View Post
              I Like kemba and what he brings. leadership and winning qualities. Also, i dont understand why everyone is tripping over his height. he's athletic (39.5 inch vertical) and measure similarly to Chris Paul. Not saying that the two are the same in terms of playing style, but Chris Paul is an elite point guard is the same height as Kemba.

              Also, i really prefer kemba or knight over kanter, even if he slips. Kanter is unproven and we already have a log jam at the forward positions with Amir, ed, and bargs all under contract. Id rather much see ed playing with bargs than with kanter and bargs.
              You're right. People shouldn't be concerned with his height. You don't play better simply because you have a bigger head or longer neck. What people should be concerned about is his 7'75" standing reach, which is almost half a foot worse than your average PG. Of all the *drafted* players in the DX measurement database, only ONE has ever been measured with a worse standing reach. Only two other draftees have measured with the same standing reach (this year's Isaiah Thomas also has the same standing reach despite being almost 3 inches shorter). It's a good thing he has an above average vertical.

              And I don't know why so many people think anecdotal evidence is a good way to prove a point, especially when the anecdotal evidence involves uniquely talented players. If someone was 5'3", would you point to Mugsy Bogues? Because Bogues succeeded in the NBA, then what? If someone is 5'6", would you point to Spud Webb? If someone is 7'0", would you point to Dirk Nowitzki? Not to mention, it makes no sense that while you're arguing that someone's height won't be a factor, you're simultaneously arguing that someone else's career somehow sheds relevant light because of their height. Either height matters or it doesn't; pick one.

              Or better yet, look at the measurements that do matter: standing reach and wingspan.

              Comment


              • From DimeMag.com

                Player Comparisons
                Ceiling: Isiah Thomas
                Basement: Bobby Jackson
                Final Comparison: Terrell Brandon

                Ratings (on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being overseas talent and 10 being NBA Rookie of the Year)

                Athleticism
                The NBA game is all about speed and that is something Kemba Walker is the master of. Not only does he have blinding speed, but he has many gears as well. In the NBA, he will have above average speed considering that nobody in college could even imagine staying in front on him. Also, Walker possesses great body control and strength. When he drives through the lane, Walker knows how to absorb the contact, shift his body and finish with the best of them. Similar to Kyrie Irving, Walker is not going to soar through the lane for a poster dunk, but there’s no doubt that Walker will do more than just hang with prototypical NBA point guards.
                Grade: 9

                Skill
                There’s no doubt that Walker has all of the skills required to be a good NBA point guard. He could definitely improve his shooting range, but his ability to shoot is not much of a problem. His decision making, however, is an issue. That applies to both his shot selection and passing ability. He had an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.98 and took a handful of questionable shots every game. At the same time, can we blame Walker for having this mentality? He needed to have the ball in his hands a lot this season due to the youth of the rest of his team. It will be interesting to see if he can become a full-time point guard in the NBA.
                Grade: 7

                NBA Readiness
                Decision making comes with experience and that may be Walker’s biggest adjustment to the NBA. Also size will be a factor, but he did measure well at the combine at 6-1. There’s no doubt that he will be able to score right away, which is definitely a good thing for rebuilding teams. He also has an NBA-ready physique unlike many young prospects. Defensively, Walker will also make an impact instantly. Remember, before Walker became known as a scorer, he was known as a great defender.
                Grade: 8

                Upside
                Walker does not have the upside of other players in this draft because he is close to being a finished product. How much better can he get at this rate? He already proved his worth in the NCAA by winning the National Championship. There is certainly room for improvement, but not as much as NBA teams likes. One thing that may make Walker’s upside underrated: intangibles.
                Grade: 7

                Intangibles
                If there is one quality that NBA general managers simply cannot overlook, it is the ability to win. So few players are consistently as successful as Walker was last year in college. Even if Walker ended up being an average player, his wining mentality is what will keep him in the NBA for a long time. He makes players around him better and has the “it” factor, which certainly bodes well for his future.
                Grade: 10

                Combined Score: 41 out of 50 possible points
                Charlie Sheen would be a big fan of Kemba Walker simply for his tendency to win. He won’t be winning, however, if he doesn’t transition well to the point guard position.

                Best Fit: Charlotte Bobcats
                Ever since 2004 when the Bobcats came into the NBA, they haven’t had a great reputation for winning. As they enter their second rebuilding phase, they should look to add winners all around. Adding Walker wouldn’t only give them a winner, but it would also leave them with options. They could pull off another big trade with pieces such as D.J Augustin and Stephen Jackson.

                Outside Opinions
                “I think he showed how ultra competitive he is and that he is a pure winner. Whatever doubts there may be about his game, those qualities separate him from a lot of other potential point guards in this year’s draft and in the league today. That is why I think his draft status has risen so significantly over the past year.” – Adam Finkelstein, a former NBA Scout for Marty Blake
                Source: DimeMag.com

                In terms of upside, a lot of people were saying the same stuff about Brandon Roy.

                Comment


                • Apollo wrote: View Post
                  Source: DimeMag.com

                  In terms of upside, a lot of people were saying the same stuff about Brandon Roy.
                  Indeed, but that's the exception that proves the rule. Can't really give credit to Walker for what Roy accomplished.

                  Comment


                  • Terrell Brandon is pretty apt, I definitely see it. I agree with that summary pretty much 100%. He may never be a star but he'll certainly be a impact starter for years, at least.
                    @sweatpantsjer

                    Comment


                    • ceez wrote: View Post
                      Terrell Brandon is pretty apt, I definitely see it. I agree with that summary pretty much 100%. He may never be a star but he'll certainly be a impact starter for years, at least.
                      Yup, I think he'll put up good numbers as a starter, but end up relegated to a sixth man role on a strong team.

                      Comment


                      • Quixotic wrote: View Post
                        Indeed, but that's the exception that proves the rule. Can't really give credit to Walker for what Roy accomplished.
                        You can't discredit him for something he has yet to do yet.

                        Comment


                        • Apollo wrote: View Post
                          You can't discredit him for something he has yet to do yet.
                          How is that discrediting? So every prospect should be considered to have limitless upside simply because they haven't played in the NBA yet?

                          I was merely pointing out that Roy's success has nothing to do with Walker, unless you want to apply that success to every prospect considered to have limited upside.

                          Comment


                          • Quixotic wrote: View Post
                            How is that discrediting? So every prospect should be considered to have limitless upside simply because they haven't played in the NBA yet?
                            No but the idea that a polished 21 year old basketball player is almost ready to plateau in my opinion is completely ridiculous. The kid does everything without a good jump shot. It's something he can easily drastically improve on with the level of coaching at the pro level. People's reason to this idea that he doesn't have a great deal of upside is simply: "21". It's extremely short sighted and makes no sense. Different guys have different growth curves. A lot of these kids who are 18 or 19 "with more upside" but less ability right now are more likely to bust. That's the other side of the coin.

                            Comment


                            • Apollo wrote: View Post
                              No but the idea that a polished 21 year old basketball player is almost ready to plateau in my opinion is completely ridiculous. The kid does everything without a good jump shot. It's something he can easily drastically improve on with the level of coaching at the pro level. People's reason to this idea that he doesn't have a great deal of upside is simply: "21". It's extremely short sighted and makes no sense. Different guys have different growth curves. A lot of these kids who are 18 or 19 "with more upside" but less ability right now are more likely to bust. That's the other side of the coin.
                              Let me first state that this is not a discussion of who is right about Kemba. You have your opinion on his upside, and I have my opinion on his upside (and I don't think my opinion is that harsh at all), and 10 years from now, maybe I'll be right or maybe you'll be right (or perhaps neither of us will be right), and when that happens, I'll gladly admit I was wrong.

                              That said, just as you are pulling in bits of an argument that wasn't even argued above (the bit about age vs upside), allow me to pull in bits of an argument that doesn't completely pertain to you as well. My original point above, which you seem to have taken issue with, is that anecdotal evidence of someone else with a similar trait succeeding (in this case, the trait being the prevalent opinion of limited upside) is no good evidence at all. It would be great if we were trying to prove whether something was possible at all, but hardly relevant in predicting whether someone completely unrelated will follow in the same path. Others have done the same thing, naming off undersized Hall of Famers as if it had any relevance in predicting Walker's future. "Zeke was undersized and look at him" is not a valid argument, and neither is "in terms of upside, a lot of people were saying the same stuff about Brandon Roy" unless your only point is to show that scouts can be wrong, which was never contested.

                              Comment


                              • NBA.com
                                UConn's Walker ready to prove doubters wrong
                                CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) -- Kemba Walker took the NCAA tournament by storm as a dynamic, speedy, nearly unstoppable scoring point guard who helped Connecticut win the national championship.

                                Just over two months later, the former Huskies star is learning the reality that the NBA is a more demanding place.

                                Walker was in Charlotte on Friday for the first of many pre-draft workouts. Bobcats owner Michael Jordan was there, along with a gym full of skepticism.

                                While Walker is expected to go high in the June 23 draft, Bobcats coach Paul Silas said there's "no doubt" Walker's 6-foot-1 height is a concern. He wondered whether the Bobcats would want another small point guard - they already have 6-foot D.J. Augustin - and declared the Bobcats wouldn't attempt to trade up from the No. 9 spot to snag Walker.

                                "If he drops to nine," Silas said, "we'd really have to consider him."

                                Hardly a ringing endorsement for a guard whose spectacular quickness was no match for most college defenders. He got to the free-throw line, shot well from 3-point range, and led UConn to an unprecedented 11 straight wins to snag the Big East and NCAA crowns.

                                "I think he could be a good one," Silas said.

                                Yet Walker, who acknowledged working out in front of Jordan was a "little nerve-racking," was in the odd situation of having to make excuses for averaging 23.5 points last season. He averaged only 4.5 assists.

                                "Last season I had to score for my team out of necessity. But I'm a point guard," Walker said. "I'm able to score, but I'm also able to get guys involved, too. I think I fit in great with this team."

                                The 21-year-old Walker's junior season at UConn included being named the Most Outstanding Player of the NCAA tournament. He scored 36 points against San Diego State and 33 against Cincinnati. He had 27 games of 20 or more and even rebounded well (5.4) for his size.

                                "With speed, it gives me a chance to get to certain places other guards can't," he said.

                                Walker's dominant season helped give Jim Calhoun a national title in what could have been his final season. The 69-year-old coach is contemplating retirement.

                                "I think he's going stay, no question about that," Walker said. "He just loves the game too much. He's very passionate about the game."

                                People have said the same about Walker, who guided UConn to an unprecedented five wins in five days to take the Big East tournament. But then there are the whispers.

                                Can Walker become a pass-first point guard? Will his body hold up over an 82-game season? Can he effectively guard the bigger point guards in the league?

                                "That's always a concern. It's a concern with who we have currently," Silas said, referring to Augustin. "You just have to find a way to help them out and design your defenses so they can't get hurt."

                                Walker's quickness and toughness may be enough to overcome his 184-pound frame. It's also hard to overlook what he did in college

                                Perhaps fittingly, Walker's first NBA workout Friday included Butler guard Shelvin Mack. The two squared off in one of the ugliest NCAA title games. Walker shot 5 of 19 from the field and Mack 4 of 15 as UConn won 53-41.

                                Mack insisted more shots fell Friday.

                                "You can say that," he said, smiling.

                                Walker, too, smiles when people question his size. Yet he'll likely face similar scrutiny in upcoming workouts with Utah (No. 3 pick), Toronto (5) , Sacramento (7) and Detroit (8).

                                "I just laugh. I've been playing basketball my whole life," Walker said. "It's never been an issue. As long as teams like me, I don't care. If anything, I'll just adapt and adjust."

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