Draft Profile: Kemba Walker

[Kreza23]

What does it matter what a player's stats were in their freshman season? In Tim Duncan's freshman season, he only averaged 9 ppg, despite playing 30 mpg. Michael Jordan only averaged 13 ppg in his freshman season. Rajon Rondo only averaged 8.1 ppg and 3.5 apg in his freshman season, which is a lot worse than Jerryd Bayless' freshman season, where he averaged 19.7 ppg and 4 apg. Which one is the better pro? You've got to get off this line of thought because it's not a valid way to judge how good a pro someone is going to be.

I don't have to do anything really. You're very condescending in most of your posts, and its pretty pathetic to be honest. You make some good, valid points, but you make a lot of questionable ones as well so don't go around telling people what they should be thinking. Make your point, and be on your way. There's no need to be an ass about things.

Anyways, I agree that freshman statistics don't mean everything, and that wasn't the point I was trying to make. What I'm saying is that Kemba Walker is being hailed around here as a winner and leader etc. (which he undoubtedly is), but his leadership skills and big-time scoring were all developed after a couple of seasons of getting accustomed to the NCAA, so his statistics and his accomplishments should be taken with a grain of salt. I only use Brandon Knight as an example because they're being compared so often, and Walker could end up being a better player than Brandon Knight, but what I'm saying here is that age shouldn't be a non-factor when looking at a player's accomplishments and deciding who to pick.

As for Rondo vs. Bayless, Rondo is obviously by far the better player, but he's also been a lot luckier in his career in terms of teammates and learning environment. Under different circumstances, it's possible that Bayless would be a better player right now. It's a pointless argument because we'll never know, but it's food for thought.

[Tim W.]

I don't have to do anything really. You're very condescending in most of your posts, and its pretty pathetic to be honest. You make some good, valid points, but you make a lot of questionable ones as well so don't go around telling people what they should be thinking. Make your point, and be on your way. There's no need to be an ass about things.

Anyways, I agree that freshman statistics don't mean everything, and that wasn't the point I was trying to make. What I'm saying is that Kemba Walker is being hailed around here as a winner and leader etc. (which he undoubtedly is), but his leadership skills and big-time scoring were all developed after a couple of seasons of getting accustomed to the NCAA, so his statistics and his accomplishments should be taken with a grain of salt. I only use Brandon Knight as an example because they're being compared so often, and Walker could end up being a better player than Brandon Knight, but what I'm saying here is that age shouldn't be a non-factor when looking at a player's accomplishments and deciding who to pick.

As for Rondo vs. Bayless, Rondo is obviously by far the better player, but he's also been a lot luckier in his career in terms of teammates and learning environment. Under different circumstances, it's possible that Bayless would be a better player right now. It's a pointless argument because we'll never know, but it's food for thought.

I apologize if I came off condescending. It was not meant to be. It's an expression. You seemed to be harping on this idea that, because Knight had a better freshman season, he would be a better player. That's not the case and that's the point I made. Just because a player stays in school doesn't mean he's going to improve every year. No matter how you look at it Kemba Walker had an extraordinarily good year. Whether he had it in his third year or his first, it doesn't really matter. Only a handful of players have had seasons like that in the last decade. It doesn't make it any less extraordinary because he was a junior.

And by the way, I do apologize for coming off condescending, but I don't really appreciate the way you told me. To use your own words, tell me you didn't like the way I said it. Fine. Just don't be an ass about it.

[MyMomLovesMe]

Funny that you are using his ability to adjust as a weakness, while most scouts look at this aspect as one of his strengths.

There is a lot of scouting in the NCAA, you would think that the more you see a player the easier it is to create a game plan to deal with said player, especially if he is the primary option.


Most scouts are very impressed with Walkers ability to consistently perform even though game plans are tailored specifically against him. The panel at the combine felt that Walker faced much tougher challenges than Kyrie Irving in terms of how the other team prepared for him. What surprised them was the he always found a way to come out on top inspite of it. They said KI had a free pass most of the year because people were just starting to write a book on him... while the scouting report on Walker was on the nose from the 1st game and still little could be done.

[Beaverboi]

I think its obvious to everyone watching him play that he truly loves playing the game. Plus you don't often see the type of man-love for a player that Coach C had for him

[pran]

I don't have to do anything really. You're very condescending in most of your posts, and its pretty pathetic to be honest. You make some good, valid points, but you make a lot of questionable ones as well so don't go around telling people what they should be thinking. Make your point, and be on your way. There's no need to be an ass about things.

Anyways, I agree that freshman statistics don't mean everything, and that wasn't the point I was trying to make. What I'm saying is that Kemba Walker is being hailed around here as a winner and leader etc. (which he undoubtedly is), but his leadership skills and big-time scoring were all developed after a couple of seasons of getting accustomed to the NCAA, so his statistics and his accomplishments should be taken with a grain of salt. I only use Brandon Knight as an example because they're being compared so often, and Walker could end up being a better player than Brandon Knight, but what I'm saying here is that age shouldn't be a non-factor when looking at a player's accomplishments and deciding who to pick.

As for Rondo vs. Bayless, Rondo is obviously by far the better player, but he's also been a lot luckier in his career in terms of teammates and learning environment. Under different circumstances, it's possible that Bayless would be a better player right now. It's a pointless argument because we'll never know, but it's food for thought.

I can hear the sobs coming from you keyboard as you typed that up.

[Kreza23]

I can hear the sobs coming from you keyboard as you typed that up.

Ha ha ha, I was hardly sobbing Pran, just got tired of reading a lot of recent replies posted by Tim W. that made the original poster out to be a complete idiot for having a different opinion (not any of my posts by the way, I read a lot of the stuff here but hardly ever post). And again, a lot of times I agreed with what Tim W. would have to say, I just don't like the way he puts it out there.

Tim W. - You know if you didn't appreciate the way I stated what I did, I apologize, but to be honest I don't think it was completely unwarranted either. Whatever though, let's agree to disagree. I don't think Kemba Walker is gonna be a complete flop, but I just don't think he's gonna live up to the hype he's being given here. I could even see him being the ROY next year, but 5 years down the line, I just don't see him being a big-time impact player. I could be wrong though.

[Apollo]

Dwayne Wade was born in 1982 and he entered the draft after his junior year at Marquette in 2003. I don't know how you came up with 23 years old.

My mistake, you're right on that one. He still entered the league at an age older than Kemba Walker

He was 21 in his draft year. Vince Carter was born in 1977, and got drafted in 1998, also making him 21 at the time. Where did you get your numbers???

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...cartevi01.html

So both Wade and Carter entered the league one year older than Walker, both were selected at 5th overall and both had careers that few have exceeded. My point is intact. Age 21 is still young to be drafted.

And yes, Kemba Walker, as of now, is a better basketball player than Brandon Knight. But when Kemba Walker was a freshman, his numbers were 8.9ppg 2.9apg 1.8to and 1.1 stl.
Brandon Knight as a freshman averaged 17.3ppg 4.2apg 3.2to and 0.7stl. Walker averaged his numbers this year against players who are younger and much earlier in their learning curves, or against older players that likely won't ever make it to the NBA. Brandon Knight averaged his numbers against fellow freshman or players who are further along in their development.

Walker played for UCONN. UCONN is typically very deep. In his freshman year they had lots of depth. This season was a rebuilding year and so finally he got his chance. Not only did he perform well but he carried his team all season long and they won a championship because he got them to the games that mattered. Go read what his coach thinks. It's the same thing I'm telling you from watching a bunch of his games with my own two eyes. I get what you're saying, Brandon Knight posted excellent numbers for his freshman season. Props to him for it, it was a very nice season for him. He's not as skilled, or as fast on his feet or in his thinking as Kemba Walker is. One thing that people keep overlooking with Walker is that the guy is one of the smartest players in the NCAA. He proves it on the court with his ball protection and play making and he does it off the court in his high marks in school and the fact that heading into this last semester he was set up to finish school a year early if everything played out as it was planned. I have no confirmation on if he achieved it but he was on pace to do so as reported after Christmas and quoted in one of the draft threads by me. Stats aren't the be all end all. Lots of kid post big stats and go on to have mediocre careers or completely fail. What I know is that Knight is getting high marks for his size, his age and the hope that he has a high ceiling. He has far more question marks than Kemba Walker has. He's a higher risk/reward pick. I think Kemba is going to have a really good NBA career and I love everything he represents. I want to see him selected if Kanter isn't there because I feel strongly that he will achieve. I feel that Knight may be a really good player but I feel he's far more likely to bust than Kemba Walker is. Walker has the mind to make him a decent player at least. when you add in his speed, his athleticism, his well documented great ambitions and his well documented great work ethic I feel he can only succeed. Guys like him rarely fail and when they do it's usually because of injuries.

I'm not a huge fan of Brandon Knight (I would love to get Myck Kabongo in next years draft!), but his numbers are ridiculous compared to Kemba Walker in their freshman years.

Comparing Walker's freshman year to Knight's freshman year is like comparing Alex English's rookie season to Shane Battier's rookie season. Different situations, different levels of opportunity and as such there is zero way to accurately compare both to one another in terms of valuing the player at that stage of the game.

To recap, Kemba Walker is a proven winner. There's an old saying that "the cream always rises to the top". Well friends, Kemba Walker may be the cream of the crop and twenty years later no one is going to give a shit about how old he was when he was drafted or how tall he was out of sneakers. The fact that these two arguments are the only consistent arguments against him in here should be enough to for everyone to see how flawed their thinking is if they're "anti-Walker". You can't find anything significantly negative about his a game so the only thing left to resort to in helping your point of view is to nit pick about junk that isn't going to matter when he's breaking down opposing defenses and anchoring his perimeter defense on some lucky team that takes him in 3-10 range.

[Fully]

My mistake, you're right on that one. He still entered the league at an age older than Kemba Walker



http://www.basketball-reference.com/...cartevi01.html

So both Wade and Carter entered the league one year older than Walker, both were selected at 5th overall and both had careers that few have exceeded. My point is intact. Age 21 is still young to be drafted.



Walker played for UCONN. UCONN is typically very deep. In his freshman year they had lots of depth. This season was a rebuilding year and so finally he got his chance. Not only did he perform well but he carried his team all season long and they won a championship because he got them to the games that mattered. Go read what his coach thinks. It's the same thing I'm telling you from watching a bunch of his games with my own two eyes. I get what you're saying, Brandon Knight posted excellent numbers for his freshman season. Props to him for it, it was a very nice season for him. He's not as skilled, or as fast on his feet or in his thinking as Kemba Walker is. One thing that people keep overlooking with Walker is that the guy is one of the smartest players in the NCAA. He proves it on the court with his ball protection and play making and he does it off the court in his high marks in school and the fact that heading into this last semester he was set up to finish school a year early if everything played out as it was planned. I have no confirmation on if he achieved it but he was on pace to do so as reported after Christmas and quoted in one of the draft threads by me. Stats aren't the be all end all. Lots of kid post big stats and go on to have mediocre careers or completely fail. What I know is that Knight is getting high marks for his size, his age and the hope that he has a high ceiling. He has far more question marks than Kemba Walker has. He's a higher risk/reward pick. I think Kemba is going to have a really good NBA career and I love everything he represents. I want to see him selected if Kanter isn't there because I feel strongly that he will achieve. I feel that Knight may be a really good player but I feel he's far more likely to bust than Kemba Walker is. Walker has the mind to make him a decent player at least. when you add in his speed, his athleticism, his well documented great ambitions and his well documented great work ethic I feel he can only succeed. Guys like him rarely fail and when they do it's usually because of injuries.



Comparing Walker's freshman year to Knight's freshman year is like comparing Alex English's rookie season to Shane Battier's rookie season. Different situations, different levels of opportunity and as such there is zero way to accurately compare both to one another in terms of valuing the player at that stage of the game.

To recap, Kemba Walker is a proven winner. There's an old saying that "the cream always rises to the top". Well friends, Kemba Walker may be the cream of the crop and twenty years later no one is going to give a shit about how old he was when he was drafted or how tall he was out of sneakers. The fact that these two arguments are the only consistent arguments against him in here should be enough to for everyone to see how flawed their thinking is if they're "anti-Walker". You can't find anything significantly negative about his a game so the only thing left to resort to in helping your point of view is to nit pick about junk that isn't going to matter when he's breaking down opposing defenses and anchoring his perimeter defense on some lucky team that takes him in 3-10 range.

Well Knight led a freshman laden team to the Final Four as a nineteen year old, knocking off the tournaments #1 overall seed in the process and hitting a number of crunch time buckets along the way. It's not like this kid shrunk on the big stage and people are just blindly claiming him as a better prospect than Walker. He had a great season just like Walker did, and I'm not sure why people feel they have to tear down one of them if they choose to show support to the other.

You've clearly developed a man crush on Kemba and I think it's getting in the way of your rational thinking (as evidenced by the "point" you made about Kemba being younger than Wade/Carter when they were drafted, even though you basically made their ages up to make it) If we're being honest, Kemba benefited greatly from one of the weakest college seasons of all time. No elite teams and very few elite players, if any at all. His run through the Big East tournament and March Madness was remarkable, but it was also against relatively weak competition compared to some other seasons.

[MyMomLovesMe]

I don't think anyone is putting down Knight, in fact many of us acknowledge that he is likely to go before Walker. The reason you see so much admiration is because he is the most likely of all players to be around at our position.

It's a comforting thought to know that the worst we can do is Walker. (By no means is this set in stone, but I have faith)

[Apollo]

Well Knight led a freshman laden team to the Final Four as a nineteen year old, knocking off the tournaments #1 overall seed in the process and hitting a number of crunch time buckets along the way.

There is a big difference. Kentucky had an overall far deeper team this year than UCONN. Knight had a lot more help than Walker did.

It's not like this kid shrunk on the big stage and people are just blindly claiming him as a better prospect than Walker.

"People" are also calling Walker a better prospect.

He had a great season just like Walker did, and I'm not sure why people feel they have to tear down one of them if they choose to show support to the other.

Unless you define "tearing him down" as saying Kemba Walker is a better selection then you should go look for the posts where I say my top three picks (excluding Irving and Williams) go Kanter, Walker and then Knight.

You've clearly developed a man crush on Kemba

You clearly have run out of arguments so you've elected to try and belittle me with garbage like this above. This above is cop out number one of your hat trick in this post.

Kemba being younger than Wade/Carter when they were drafted, even though you basically made their ages up to make it

Basically made it up, huh? Then why don't you just come out and call me a liar instead of pussy footing around like that? I admitted I was off a year about Wade and I was right about Carter and gave you a link validating it. Whether Wade was 23 or 22 when he entered didn't even matter for the point I was making to begin with. You used it to attempt to distract from the very valid point that 21 is still young.

If we're being honest, Kemba benefited greatly from one of the weakest college seasons of all time.

You just pulled that out of your ass. Go look at their season schedule and repeat that. I see lots of tough match ups, including that late November game where they humiliated Kentucky. Kemba Walker 2 and Brandon Knight 0 by my count. I see this above quote as the third cop out in your post.

[RAPT0RS]

In my opinion, Walker would be a better fit for this team because of his ability to create his own shot. Knight is more of your traditional point guard, which I'm not saying is a bad thing, but from the looks of things, the Raps don't really have anyone that can create for themselves.

[Kreza23]

Basically made it up, huh? Then why don't you just come out and call me a liar instead of pussy footing around like that? I admitted I was off a year about Wade and I was right about Carter and gave you a link validating it. Whether Wade was 23 or 22 when he entered didn't even matter for the point I was making to begin with. You used it to attempt to distract from the very valid point that 21 is still young.

Hold up a second. Your link for Vince Carter validated your point? You said that Vince Carter was 22 when he entered the draft. I said no he wasn't, he was born in 1977 and entered in 1998, making him 21. And your link says exactly what I said.

And your point about Kemba Walker's freshman year is valid. UCONN is always very deep, but so is Kentucky. Walker played behind AJ Price in his freshman year, and his numbers were much better in his sophomore year. Obviously opportunity has a lot to do with that, but I also strongly believe that 1 year behind Price helped him out a lot as well. Which is why I believe big numbers in freshman years are so much more impressive.

Another point I want to make is that you said that UCONN is typically deep and Kemba Walker finally got his chance this year. Kemba Walker only averaged 2 minutes more a game this year (37 mpg as opposed to 35 mpg in his sophomore year), and even in his freshman year he averaged over 25 minutes. And then you also shot down Brandon Knight's accomplishments of taking Kentucky to the Final Four because they had a deep team. So Walker's freshman year is a write-off because his team was deep, but when Brandon Knight leads a deep team it's a negative? Doesn't that just mean Brandon Knight was good enough as a freshman to lead a deep and talented team?

I do agree that Kemba Walker is a very intelligent young man, but Brandon Knight had a 4.3 GPA in high school as well, so he's not in any way inferior to Walker there either. We'll see how they turn out in the NBA. Drafting is far from an exact science, so it'll be interesting to see how the teams and their scouts see the two, and how they actually turn out. Should be fun.

[KingRaptors]

I'd draft Knight over Kemba all day, but if the Raptors had to choose between the two I see them picking Kemba... he's explosive, athletic and I think will fit very well with the raptors, I do hope though Bayless can come through with his "potential" next season and make the next step in becoming a solid starter.

[DeRozan10]

In my opinion, Walker would be a better fit for this team because of his ability to create his own shot. Knight is more of your traditional point guard, which I'm not saying is a bad thing, but from the looks of things, the Raps don't really have anyone that can create for themselves.

Ya walker seems like something special. I could see him as ROY next year. I'd take him over knight, he could help this team in the long run.

[dballa21]

Ya walker seems like something special. I could see him as ROY next year. I'd take him over knight, he could help this team in the long run.

I wouldnt jump the gun and say he'll be ROY, but all things considered I can easily see him as a HOFer

[jeff_hostetler]

Seeing the PG comparison thread Apollo just started made me think back to the times when Stoudamire was destroying the league from the point.

Stoudamire, for being as good as he was, was only 5'10", came in as a senior, and was drafted with the 7th pick.

The games that Stoudamire and Walker play are exceptionally similar. So I'm throwing this out there (I'm a big-time Walker fan, so it should be no surprise what I think the answer might be): why can't Walker be as good as Damon Stoudamire?

Here are their stats (per game) from their junior year in college.

Stoudamire:
Minutes: 33.3..FG%: 44.8..3pt FG%: 35.1..FT%: 80.0..Rebs: 4.5..Asts: 5.9..T/O: 3.2..Blks: 0.1..Stls: 1.6..Pts: 18.3

Walker:
Minutes: 37.6..FG%: 42.8..3pt FG%: 33.....FT%: 81.9..Rebs: 5.4..Asts: 4.5..T/O: 2.3..Blks: 0.2..Stls: 1.9..Pts: 23.5

You could look at Stoudamire's assist numbers and say he was a better distributor, BUT, Walker turned the ball over less. And I don't know what the calibre of players were that Stoudamire played with, but I know that other than Lamb, Walker didn't really play with quality scorers. That is, he shouldn't be significantly faulted for being the team's best offensive option simply because he played PG.

Also, other than stats, I don't know what kind of player Stoudamire was in college, but I can't see what intangibles he might have had then that Walker doesn't have now (such as leadership, clutch, toughness and competitiveness). And for all the concern over Walker's height, he's basically 2 inches taller than Stoudamire.

[Quixotic]

I don't think there's any particular reason why Kemba couldn't be as good as Damon or better, but that applies to all the top prospects and every year there are players who don't perform up to expectations, including Damon, I would imagine (in terms of WS/48, he was slightly below average over his career and only slightly above average in 5 of his 13 seasons). Only hindsight tells us why a player did or did not meet expectations.

If you're going to use their college stats as a way to project their careers, then you also have to look at, for example:

Damon's 2P% (2PT/36): 49.0 (6.53), 48.4 (5.13), 56.6 (6.77), 48.9 (7.42)
Kemba's 2P% (2PT/36): 52.2 (7.38), 43.0 (7.96), 47.1 (11.95)

Damon's 3P% (3PT/36): 40.6 (4.60), 38.2 (4.22), 35.1 (8.20), 46.5 (7.95)
Kemba's 3P% (3PT/36): 27.1 (1.91), 33.9 (3.36), 33.0 (5.30)

Damon's FG% (FGA/36): 45.5 (11.13), 43.8 (9.35), 44.8 (14.97), 47.6 (15.36)
Kemba's FG% (FGA/36): 47.0 (9.29), 40.3 (11.32), 42.8 (17.24)

- How much do we credit Kemba's poor %s for being forced to take more shots per 36 mins?

- Damon's overall shooting improved a notch in his last college year before the draft; do we assume Kemba would have done the same had he stayed an additional year?

- How much will Kemba benefit from being taller than Damon?

Despite never having a 2P% worse than 48.4 during college, Damon's career 2P% in the NBA was a paltry 43.0 (and career 3P% was 35.7). How much of his 2P% drop was due to being undersized and how much was due to playing against tougher competition? If we really used Damon's college career as a comparison, wouldn't you say Kemba's NBA 3P% will be in the high 20s/low 30s and his 2P% will likely be in the low 40s as well?

Or he could be less successful than Damon and end up a 6th man on decent teams.

Or he could be more successful than Damon and end up a rich man's Tim Hardaway. Who knows. =P

[jeff_hostetler]

Let me rephrase then: Why couldn't Kemba Walker be as good as Damon Stoudemire was when he played for Toronto?

[DaveKim]

I Like kemba and what he brings. leadership and winning qualities. Also, i dont understand why everyone is tripping over his height. he's athletic (39.5 inch vertical) and measure similarly to Chris Paul. Not saying that the two are the same in terms of playing style, but Chris Paul is an elite point guard is the same height as Kemba.

Also, i really prefer kemba or knight over kanter, even if he slips. Kanter is unproven and we already have a log jam at the forward positions with Amir, ed, and bargs all under contract. Id rather much see ed playing with bargs than with kanter and bargs.

[Quixotic]

Let me rephrase then: Why couldn't Kemba Walker be as good as Damon Stoudemire was when he played for Toronto?

I don't think the rephrasing changes anything. :-p My point (in the beginning of my post) was that it's kinda pointless thinking of reasons for why someone can't be as good as someone else. The obstacles usually come after they've played a game in the NBA.

Also, as an amusing note, if you go by Win Shares, Damon actually had some of the best years of his career in Portland. In two of the three years he played for Toronto, his WS/48 was very below average.