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Thread: The Facts Beyond The Cap Space Gloating

  1. #1
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default The Facts Beyond The Cap Space Gloating

    We've all heard Colangelo gloat about the cap space this summer again and again. So how might it actually look and where do the Raptors stack again the league?

    How much money does my team have to spend in free agency? When talking about Free Agency 2011 it becomes a bit of a loaded question due to the unsettled situation with the Collective Bargaining Agreement
    The numbers below assume all player and team options are invoked, early termination options are not invoked, and no non-guaranteed contracts are waived. Basically, this is a snapshot based on today
    These numbers also do not account for cap holds for draft picks, previously picked players playing overseas, or prospective free agents (restricted or unrestricted). While those cap holds have an impact, we won't delve into them here. The cap space numbers are based on the amount of dollars a team has committed as of today to the 2011-12 season.
    The first table is based on the current CBA.
    Raptors cap space:
    -$10,914,868
    There are seven teams with more cap space than them. Six out of seven of them can be deemed rebuilding teams for sure. The seventh, the Denver Nuggets might as well be considered one too even though the did well during the season for the most part after Melo left.

    Moving on...
    -$2,263,871
    That's the average space for an NBA team this off-season.

    As of now - and this is a simplification – the Players have taken the stance minimal changes need to be made, while the Owners have proposed a drastic set of changes, including salary rollbacks, a hard cap (the current cap is referred to as soft because of the many exceptions), shorter contracts, and fewer guarantees.

    So what might the same set of contracts look like in such a world? Let's nail down some assumptions. First, the number going around for a hard cap is $45 million. Second, the most recent proposal included tiered rollbacks based on salary. For the following table rollbacks were applied like this, based on the 2011-12 salary figures on the books:

    15% cut: All contracts below the current Mid-Level Exception ($5.765 million)
    20% cut: All contracts between the current MLE and current max levels (varies depending on experience)
    25% cut: All contracts over current max levels

    Here are the results of the formulas applied to the existing salaries and how each team falls out relative to a $45 million hard cap.
    Raptors cap space:
    -$6,271,532
    Average league cap space:
    -$92,522
    Verdict: Expect one average starter or a couple average bench players at best.

    Source: HoopsWorld.com

  2. #2
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Plus whatever we owe the #5 pick. So even less than that.

    But also keep in mind that we can trade into that free space as well. Use it to acquire more than me give away.
    Or we have about the same amount left from the TPE (which expires rather shortly I believe) in which we could acquire a player for little/nothing.

    Whether or not either of those are likely, I'm not sure. But Colangelo definitely does have some options and flexibility beyond simply signing Free Agents.

    But either way we're probably looking at $4M according to those numbers, because the #5 pick is somewhere around $2M? Totally guessing on that.
    $4M isn't that much. But who knows, maybe $4M will be a Max deal in a couple months hahah
    "I just dunked. Got a little dunk. Thatís nice." Terrence Ross

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    This is inaccurate. The cap space listed above is for the 2011 season and cap level not the 2012 season. As of existing contract commitments the raptors have is $45.4M including Barbosa opting in. If we add in JWright and JDorsey QOs this adds only another $5.04M. This does not equal any of the numbers listed above even if, and I doubt it happens, a hard cap comes in at $45M. If draft picks are included then this gets close to the number but they specifically state it does not. Too many assumptions with many inaccuracies.

    Bull crap report.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star grindhouse's Avatar
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    well with non-guaranteed contracts it will be easy to waive people if we need the cap space for someone.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Quote Maleko wrote: View Post
    This is inaccurate. The cap space listed above is for the 2011 season and cap level not the 2012 season. As of existing contract commitments the raptors have is $45.4M including Barbosa opting in. If we add in JWright and JDorsey QOs this adds only another $5.04M. This does not equal any of the numbers listed above even if, and I doubt it happens, a hard cap comes in at $45M. If draft picks are included then this gets close to the number but they specifically state it does not. Too many assumptions with many inaccuracies.

    Bull crap report.
    He clearly says that he's using the 2011 cap number. There is no 2012 cap number.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    He clearly says that he's using the 2011 cap number. There is no 2012 cap number.
    And using 2011 salaries. What is committed to for 2012 leaves the Raptors almost $13M under the cap so whatever he is referencing is either measuring two different yard sticks or plainly incorrect.

  7. #7
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Well I'm looking at HoopsHype.com and it looks like they're adding everything excluding the Barbosa player option. So they're adding Wright's and Dorsey's qualifying offers to get to $45M. I think that's not accurate because we don't know if the Raptors will extend a qualifying off to Dorsey and we sure as hell know they're not making the qualifying offer to Wright. If you exclude those two and instead add Barbosa's player option, which is a certainty, then you get to around $47M. That's what this HoopsWorld.com article seems to be using or a source close to it. I didn't add up the exact numbers but just simply rounded and added to make it faster. So that's keeping with the quote in the first post:

    The numbers below assume all player and team options are invoked, early termination options are not invoked, and no non-guaranteed contracts are waived. Basically, this is a snapshot based on today
    I think the number you have in your head is the HoopsHype.com number. Am I right in thinking that?

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    You are correct that is what I am using as a reference however my understanding of how they make their calcs are all guaranteed plus player options to get their totals. QOs and team options do not count into the totals. However doing rough addition it seems something does not add up for their $45 unless I missed something going back and forth.

    Regardless the quote you put in all of these contracts with Barbosa and the Qualifying offers etc and add in the cap hold for the draft pick (which he expressly excludes) the number then comes to around $54M which is a far cry from being $10M over the cap of $58M he states the Raptors are. So if he then assumes the $45M cap, which you point out he does not, it would be close to the $10M over however does not take into account the rollbacks on salaries he mentions so I question the numbers used.

    I am on the side of cap space available until there is evidence to the contrary a la a new CBA.

  9. #9
    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Team and player options do count:
    The numbers below assume all player and team options are invoked
    Quote Maleko wrote: View Post
    the number then comes to around $54M which is a far cry from being $10M over the cap of $58M he states the Raptors are.
    Where does he state that the Raptors would be at $58M? I see him stating in scenario one that they would be under the cap by $10M.

    Quote Maleko wrote: View Post
    So if he then assumes the $45M cap, which you point out he does not, it would be close to the $10M over however does not take into account the rollbacks on salaries he mentions so I question the numbers used.

    I am on the side of cap space available until there is evidence to the contrary a la a new CBA.
    He does take into consideration the rollbacks... Have you clicked on the article and read it?

    Also I see a point of confusion here. The Raptors' current cap number is at around $47M in scenario #1. In scenario #2 the hypothetical league salary cap number is set to $45M for the purpose of this article. The Raptors sit in at $38M in that scenario due to his hypothetical rollbacks.

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    @Maleko/Apollo:

    Maleko was confused by the use of a negative sign in front of our cap space number. Saying we have cap space of -$10 mil sounds like we're over the cap by $10 mil. But looking at the HoopsWorld article, it is clear the writer meant $10 mil beneath the cap (assuming the cap stays the same).

    Just so you guys don't waste more time trying to figure out what's included and what's not, let me tell you that the $45 mil figure Hoopshype has for our 2012 total guaranteed salary is incorrect. It was accurate before the James Johnson trade, and you'll see that the difference between the actual total and their total is indeed James Johnson's salary.

    And for the record, Hoopshype only includes guaranteed salary for their total at the bottom. That means players options YES, but team options and qualifying offers NO.

    The correct figure should be $46,879,433 for our 10 guaranteed players next year (I'm sure HoopsWorlds numbers are a bit different, but not by much). Then consider the following:

    - a cap hit of $3,480,000 for our #5 overall pick (assuming he is offered the 120% of the suggested rookie scale salary of $2,900,000, which is the norm).

    - a cap hold of $490,180 because we'd still be 1 player under the required 12 (assuming they keep that part of the CBA and the minimum salary stays the same as previously projected)

    So provided we renounce all our cap holds (all our potential FAs, as well as any applicable exceptions, whether TPE, MLE or BAE), we'd be sitting at a second-best case scenario of $50,849,613 (best would be if Barbosa declined his player option), or ~$7.2 mil under the "cap".

    This technically means we'd be considered over the cap for 2011-2012 even if the CBA and cap figure stayed the same, as the MLE and BAE we renounced are another ~$8 mil in cap hold. In terms of squeezing as much payroll room as possible, we'd have more to work with by not renouncing those exceptions.
    Last edited by Quixotic; Mon May 30th, 2011 at 09:52 AM.

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    Quote Quixotic wrote: View Post
    @Maleko/Apollo:

    Maleko was confused by the use of a negative sign in front of our cap space number. Saying we have cap space of -$10 mil sounds like we're over the cap by $10 mil. But looking at the HoopsWorld article, it is clear the writer meant $10 mil beneath the cap (assuming the cap stays the same).Just so you guys don't waste more time trying to figure out what's included and what's not, let me tell you that the $45 mil figure Hoopshype has for our 2012 total guaranteed salary is incorrect. It was accurate before the James Johnson trade, and you'll see that the difference between the actual total and their total is indeed James Johnson's salary.

    And for the record, Hoopshype only includes guaranteed salary for their total at the bottom. That means players options YES, but team options and qualifying offers NO.

    The correct figure should be $46,879,433 for our 10 guaranteed players next year (I'm sure HoopsWorlds numbers are a bit different, but not by much). Then consider the following:

    - a cap hit of $3,480,000 for our #5 overall pick (assuming he is offered the 120% of the suggested rookie scale salary of $2,900,000, which is the norm).

    - a cap hold of $490,180 because we'd still be 1 player under the required 12 (assuming they keep that part of the CBA and the minimum salary stays the same as previously projected)

    So provided we renounce all our cap holds (all our potential FAs, as well as any applicable exceptions, whether TPE, MLE or BAE), we'd be sitting at a second-best case scenario of $50,849,613 (best would be if Barbosa declined his player option), or ~$7.2 mil under the "cap".

    This technically means we'd be considered over the cap for 2011-2012 even if the CBA and cap figure stayed the same, as the MLE and BAE we renounced are another ~$8 mil in cap hold. In terms of squeezing as much payroll room as possible, we'd have more to work with by not renouncing those exceptions.
    Absolutely correct that is how I read it and why I was confused. I wondered about the difference being so close to JJ's contract.

    Thanks for the clarification!!

  12. #12
    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    yeah the whole minus thing really confused me. i think you owe us all wings after this, apollo.
    @jerboat

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    It's Jason Fleming's fault for sticking those minus signs there in the first place.

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