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Thread: Ellis To The Raptors (Idea)

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Default Ellis To The Raptors (Idea)

    He could be a monster on a good team, as a 6th man or a great 2-guard paired with a taller, defensive-minded point guard, and the Warriors would be taking a risk by trading him, no doubt.
    Curry fits it better because he’s more versatile and because he’s younger–which amplifies why Keith Smart had to go; his tilt towards Ellis, and away from Curry, was not the path to the future.

    And I don’t think Ellis quite fits that larger Lacob/West picture. Plus, the arrival of West (and Bob Myers) makes it more likely that the Warriors will be able to find a decent deal for Ellis.


    If the Warriors move Ellis for any kind of taller, tougher wing or decent post player (it’d probably be a wing), they can draft Alec Burks or Klay Thompson with their No. 11 pick and suddenly they have a backcourt of Curry, the big rookie, and another tough wing… to add to Dorell Wright at the 3.
    You don’t keep guys together because they’re popular and score a lot of points. You keep them if they win.

    They won’t win like this. They have to move on. It’s possible that by draft night the Warriors will do that.

    They’re going to split up Curry and Ellis eventually. Why not as soon as possible?
    It’s nothing personal. It’s just basketball business.

    And with West on board as management’s newest, sharpest voice, it seems likely that West already has begun to survey trade options for Ellis.

    “I’ve seen teams trade players that score tons of points and people say, ‘How in the world can you trade that player?’ ” West said last week. “Because he might score tons of points and the team doesn’t win.

    “When I look at (the Warriors), obviously they need more size.”

    Of course, West was not definitively referring to Ellis when he spoke those words, and throughout the conversation he added that he admired Ellis’ toughness and inventive scoring ability.
    “I love to watch them play,” West said of the Ellis-Curry combo. “They’re so much fun to watch play. But at the end of the day, you want to win.

    “Monta Ellis, a fierce competitor. He competes his fanny off every night. Love to watch him play.

    “But to me, size helps. Size helps.”
    “They have attractive players on this team that a lot of people would like to have,” West said of the Warriors.

    “If you’re in a position of strength, and you have (a player) somebody might want badly, you might be able to acquire a couple of really good players that give you more depth — it gives you a better balance to your team.”
    Source: Mercury News

    The Raptors happen to have on of the largest guys in the league currently on the block.

    I'm thinking Bargnani and Bayless for Ellis would be a great offer to explore.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Source: Mercury News

    The Raptors happen to have on of the largest guys in the league currently on the block.

    I'm thinking Bargnani and Bayless for Ellis would be a great offer to explore.
    I interpreted the article as needing more size in the backcourt and more of a defensive presence in the backcourt. They definitely need size in the front court as well but Bargnani would be the opposite of their needs there too.

    This is off the top of my head:

    IND: Mayo, Calderon, Henry, TPE for Posey
    MEM: Ellis, George, TPE for Henry
    GSW: Bargnani, Jones, #15 from Pacers
    TOR: Gay, Posey

    I think GSW would be looking for more though.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    It's rare that you see huge trades like that. I think it's because it's far more difficult to make three teams happy than making one team happy. Bargnani has all the physical tools to be a solid defender and rebounder. I feel teams looking at him who are interested in acquiring him are going to feel they can make him a solid defend and rebounder.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    It's rare that you see huge trades like that. I think it's because it's far more difficult to make three teams happy than making one team happy. Bargnani has all the physical tools to be a solid defender and rebounder. I feel teams looking at him who are interested in acquiring him are going to feel they can make him a solid defend and rebounder.
    If a big deal is going to happen, the Raptors have the GM who is not afraid to be a part of it. You are correct though, extremely unlikely. If a team acquired Bargnani and were able to make him a solid defender and rebounder, I'd cry.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    Me too. I believe certain high profile coaches and locker rooms might have success but it will probably not happen in Toronto and it's not worth waiting to find out. In my books, if they can land a guy like Ellis in a deal involving him then who cares?

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    I think if the Raptors are in league to get Ellis, the Warriors would probably force Biedrins on us as well. As much as I liked him in his younger years, others on this forum prompted me to dig into his woeful recent #'s on D, and shudder at the thought. Ellis and Derozan would probably score a lot of points as the GSW backcourt does, but would not have the proper ball handling skills. It would virtually force JJ to start at SF to become a point forward to compensate, but I am not so sure about Ellis in TO. It would be an exciting team to watch, but we would still be watching in the regular season.

    As for D:
    While I appreciate Ellis' surprisingly decent D (15.9 oppPER at the 2 and 17 at the point), I would be much more inclined to go for Ray Felton. He doesn't score as much per game as Ellis (~11 to 24 although he shot over 17 in NY) yet he also doesn't take more than 20 shots per game on avg! That's a heck of a lot! Felton also has excellent D (11.3 at the point, 11.1 at the SG), is 2/3rds the salary, is more a PG than Ellis and would, imo, fit in excellently next to Derozan.

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    Administrator Apollo's Avatar
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    I can live with Biedrins. He's still very young and at least hits the glass and tries on D. Monta has a good handle and DeRozan is a big SG. I think it would work well. On the flip side, if they draft Brandon Knight or Alec Burks the Raptors could afford to play Ellis at the 2 and start DeRozan at the 3.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star WJF's Avatar
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    So what are we bringing in Ellis to do? Demar has the 2 spot on lock and i feel he should grow with the team at that position. Ellis is not a pure PG and Demar does not create well enough to compliment him in a starting back-court. Ellis has 3 more years at 11 mil, I think I would take one year of Barbosa at 7.6 mil and get a better piece. The positive is we shed 2 years of Bargnani's contract by taking Ellis' shorter one.

    Do you see Ellis being a part of a playoff team building for more in Toronto, if not I see no need for him.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    I can live with Biedrins. He's still very young and at least hits the glass and tries on D. Monta has a good handle and DeRozan is a big SG. I think it would work well. On the flip side, if they draft Brandon Knight or Alec Burks the Raptors could afford to play Ellis at the 2 and start DeRozan at the 3.
    I am not doubting Monta's handle, (irrespective of his 3.6 turnovers per game), it is more that Monta and Curry are a better ball handling backcourt on a poor team than Monta and Derozan...on a poor team. However, if this were to go ahead, I would still leave Ellis at point, hope to get Kanter (flip with Utah/get lucky) and the team would look like (assuming Barbosa and Calderon are not subsequently moved):

    PG: MEllis, JCalderon
    SG: DDerozan, LBarbosa
    SF: JJ, Kleiza
    PF: ED, Amir
    C: EKanter, ABiedrins, SAlabi
    The problem is the salary would be a little over $57M with only 11 players needing another SG, and SF, the latter especially since Kleiza will be out half or more of the year. In this scenario it becomes very important to move either Barbosa or Calderon (both have possible destinations, although who knows if our thoughts can become reality).

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    Quote WJF wrote: View Post
    So what are we bringing in Ellis to do? Demar has the 2 spot on lock and i feel he should grow with the team at that position. Ellis is not a pure PG and Demar does not create well enough to compliment him in a starting back-court. Ellis has 3 more years at 11 mil, I think I would take one year of Barbosa at 7.6 mil and get a better piece. The positive is we shed 2 years of Bargnani's contract by taking Ellis' shorter one.
    Ellis is one of the greatest play makers in the game today. What it accomplishes, is selling Bargnani's stock now while it's probably high and getting a better player in return. DeMar doesn't need much more mass to be able to guard most SF's. Beyond that I don't think it would be necessary. I think Monta would man the point fine. Monta has raised his game to elite level over the past two seasons and is still young.

    Quote WJF wrote: View Post
    Do you see Ellis being a part of a playoff team building for more in Toronto, if not I see no need for him.
    Rarely do I toss names out who I don't think would be part of the core long term. When I do I always specify that.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Ellis is one of the greatest play makers in the game today. What it accomplishes, is selling Bargnani's stock now while it's probably high and getting a better player in return. DeMar doesn't need much more mass to be able to guard most SF's.
    Ok, so moving DD (not sure I agree with it but let's roll with your plans) to SF, then preliminary:

    PG: JCalderon
    SG: MEllis, LBarbosa
    SF: DDerozan, JJ, LKleiza
    PF: ED, Amir,
    C: ABiedrins, SAlabi

    We definitely need a C, and PG. Draft BKnight one is done but no money for a C in free agency. Opposite is true for drafting Kanter. Chase a 2nd pick in this 1st round to go after Darius Morris (of the old Caldy ilk, Jose can mentor/pass the torch), Biyombo (risky, potential), Jeremy Tyler (head case? did he learn and mature?). I would even go after buying another pick to chase Marshon Brooks, but hey that's me.

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    Quote Apollo wrote: View Post
    Ellis is one of the greatest play makers in the game today. What it accomplishes, is selling Bargnani's stock now while it's probably high and getting a better player in return. DeMar doesn't need much more mass to be able to guard most SF's. Beyond that I don't think it would be necessary. I think Monta would man the point fine. Monta has raised his game to elite level over the past two seasons and is still young.

    Rarely do I toss names out who I don't think would be part of the core long term. When I do I always specify that.

    Definitely in the camp in favour of selling high on Bargnani.

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    Quote Maleko wrote: View Post
    As for D:
    While I appreciate Ellis' surprisingly decent D (15.9 oppPER at the 2 and 17 at the point), I would be much more inclined to go for Ray Felton. He doesn't score as much per game as Ellis (~11 to 24 although he shot over 17 in NY) yet he also doesn't take more than 20 shots per game on avg! That's a heck of a lot! Felton also has excellent D (11.3 at the point, 11.1 at the SG), is 2/3rds the salary, is more a PG than Ellis and would, imo, fit in excellently next to Derozan.
    I would also be more inclined to go for Felton as well. And I'm not sure Ellis' defense is that decent. Yes, his oppPER this year looks good (considerably worse the two years before BTW), but I wonder if it tells the entire picture. His off-court/on-court differential is horrible:

    2010-2011
    On-Court: 1.087 off. ppp, 1.129 def. ppp
    Off-Court: 1.090 off. ppp, 1.065 def. ppp

    2009-2010
    On-Court: 1.065 off. ppp, 1.140 def. ppp
    Off-Court: 1.140 off. ppp, 1.102 def. ppp

    So both years, the team isn't better offensively when he's on the court, but instead is considerably worse defensively. I went through all the starters for this year, thinking perhaps he was just suffering due to his fellow starters, but nobody else who played starter minutes was nearly as bad (Lee was the next worse, giving up 4.2 more points per 100 possessions, but nothing like Ellis' 6.4 more points, and at least he had an almost equal positive impact on the team's offense). Curry, who played alongside Ellis most of the time both years, had a slightly negative impact on the team's defense but nothing more than 0.8 more points per 100 possessions. The only constant both years is Ellis.

    Trading Bargnani for Ellis is a positive for me, but I'm worried about what these numbers seem to suggest.

    Thoughts?

    EDIT: Ellis doesn't look good from a Win Shares perspective either. While 0.100 is an average player, his six years look like this: 0.028, 0.072, 0.140, 0.012, 0.023, 0.089. I'm thinking as a Raptors fan, other teams' players always seem more desirable than they are.
    Last edited by Quixotic; Wed Jun 1st, 2011 at 01:48 PM.

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    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    I don't know how i feel about Ellis at all. Yeah he's exciting to watch and extremely crafty at scoring, but he's just as poor a defender as jose and takes some really awful shots.
    @jerboat

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    In a perfect world he'd be a sixth man but his contract is way too big for that.
    @jerboat

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    Demar should not be covering most SFs in this league and Ellis is only going to take minutes from him at the 2. On top of that I don't think this helps our D or rebounding.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Balls of Steel's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    If a big deal is going to happen, the Raptors have the GM who is not afraid to be a part of it. You are correct though, extremely unlikely. If a team acquired Bargnani and were able to make him a solid defender and rebounder, I'd cry.
    Golden State turning Bargs into a rebounding / defense machine? We're talking about the same team right? Perhaps they should bring back Nellie to make that happen

    PS> As for these trade proposals, they all sound good to me at this point. We have several assets that we can move (assets that no longer fit). It will be very interesting what this team looks like next year.
    “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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    Quote Balls of Steel wrote: View Post
    Golden State turning Bargs into a rebounding / defense machine? We're talking about the same team right? Perhaps they should bring back Nellie to make that happen
    Read the context in which it was typed. It was a reply to Apollo's comment, which was a general one, about Bargnani becoming a solid defender and rebounder.

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