Ripples From Mavs Win Changing Views?

[GarbageTime]

James - Wade, the best back court in the NBA on a team that just made the NBA finals:

1) have a problem
2) can't co-exist
3) never really in sync
4) look lost

If thats miami after 1 year then whats up with Durant/Westbrook in OKC... 3 years and haven't even gotten that close? Time to tear that down? Portland I'm assuming is just plain screwed. Chicago should probably move Derek Rose as its clear he can't do it with Noah, Boozer and Deng... he's had 3 years. Kobe/Pau/Odom/Bynum.... man were those guys frontrunners. Trade kobe. Orlando? What do they do? No chance.

I just wanted to add I think people need to give Dallas, Dirk and Carlisle more credit. Dirk was amazing, especially in the 4th quarters. Rick Carlisle did a great job coaching... using what was working (especially the zone) and using his players well, and Mark Cuban and his staff spent years building a very well balanced team. Simply put, Dallas as a whole wanted it more.

Miami didn't beat Miami, Dallas beat Miami. Just like they beat Portland, LA and OKC. That doesn't mean Miami, and specifically their core franchise players (Wade and Lebron) should be torn apart. If Dallas had listened to the world and moved Dirk (like was said after 2006) and rebuilt, they wouldn't have won this year.

[Apollo]

The Raptors are pathetic on defense. The two guys who anchored a Mavs defense who managed to mitigate the damage done by "Egos-R-Us" were none other than Shaun Marion and Tyson Chandler.

Pooring salt on the wound...

• Marion was moved to Dallas in that double S&T that landed Hedon't in Toronto
• Michael Jordan verbally agreed to a deal that would have sent Tyson Chnadler to Toronto and someone in the Bobcats organization leaked the news early... Then Jordan double crossed Colangelo, went back on his word and the media ridiculed B.C. for "dropping the ball" when it wasn't his fault at all. Shame on Colangelo for not leaking the news early and following standard negotiation processes.

[Tim W.]

The notion that Chris Bosh, after being an All Star on one of the best teams in the league, coming within two wins of the Championship, being on a favourite to win the Championship next year, and having received more media coverage in the last year than he did in his previous 7 seasons, would rather have stayed with a team that ended up winning 22 games without him, and had never gone past the 1st round once in his 7 years there, utterly defies logic.

I was going to say more on this whole subject, but it was a little too much for this space. So I wrote it here...
http://www.wearingfilm.com/picketfen...alyzing-begin/

[Boko]

I think the very fact that both Dallas and Miami made it to the finals just proves there is no hard and fast rule about how you build a team.

A discussion of what might be an optimal model franchise doesn't hurt anyone, though. Right now, I see the range being from the 2004 Detroit Pistons of Ben Wallace (0 mega-stars, 0 super-stars, 1 star ...) to the 1986 Boston Celtics of Larry Bird (1 mega-star, 1 super-star, & 1 star ...).

In analyzing the distribution of those stars by position, where there were 3 stars, the Bulls won with 2 different PF/SF/SG combinations (Grant or Rodman, Pippen & Jordan). Hmm. That kills the argument that CB, LJ & DW should not be able to co-exist, doesn't it.

During the past 30 years ...
15 mega-stars have had PERS of 28+
17 super-stars of 21+, &
8 stars of 19+.

So, the most common championship team has 1 mega-star, 1 super-star & 6 role-players! Don't bet against the Heat next year ...
the Mavs won with 1 super-star & 7 role-players. No team like that has won 2 years in a row ...
and it'll be interesting to see if Dwight Howard & Kevin Love can find their side-kicks soon enough ...

[Apollo]

The Heat have enough concentrated talent. If they can round out their bench this off-season then they'll come back stronger next year. Let's face it, as well as the Mavs starters played, the deciding factor which made them a better team than the Heat was their bench. Their bench was outstanding. The Heat need to somehow find a tough guy center and fill out their bench. They were mistaken in getting Bosh because with Wade and James on the roster they didn't need another elite scorer. What they needed was to find a guy who didn't need to score to greatly impact the game. Tyson Chandler would have impacted the Heat more than Bosh did. Seriously. I'm not discrediting Bosh's abilities at all, he's very gifted and far more talented than Chandler but with two elite scorers and play makers in Wade and James they could have easily gotten by without yet another shot hungry attention addict. Word is the Heat are targeting Sam Dalembert.

Moving on, the Raptors need a true leader and a strong supporting cast if they want to win it all. The true leader must be a dominate player on at least one side of the ball and at least competent on the other side. We saw the Pistons prove you can win it with a collection of almost stars if you have a strong locker room of tough, hard workers who have been together for a while. Whatever Colangelo does, he needs to pick the guys who are "untouchable" and stick to the game plan. I know, I know, "no one is untouchable", right? Wrong, that kind of thinking is what gets a team in this sort of mess. You need to draw a line in the sand and say such and such is what we want our team to be about and there is nothing anyone would realistically offer that would trump what we value in him for our particular situation. From what I see they have three guys, for sure, that represent what they should be about if they truly want to win it. Ed, Amir and DeMar. The rest are maybes and not a chances. Bayless is a maybe. Reggie is a maybe because of his age. Jose is a not a chance. Ditto for Bargnani.

[Maleko]

A discussion of what might be an optimal model franchise doesn't hurt anyone, though. Right now, I see the range being from the 2004 Detroit Pistons of Ben Wallace (0 mega-stars, 0 super-stars, 1 star ...) to the 1986 Boston Celtics of Larry Bird (1 mega-star, 1 super-star, & 1 star ...).

In analyzing the distribution of those stars by position, where there were 3 stars, the Bulls won with 2 different PF/SF/SG combinations (Grant or Rodman, Pippen & Jordan). Hmm. That kills the argument that CB, LJ & DW should not be able to co-exist, doesn't it.

During the past 30 years ...
15 mega-stars have had PERS of 28+
17 super-stars of 21+, &
8 stars of 19+.

So, the most common championship team has 1 mega-star, 1 super-star & 6 role-players! Don't bet against the Heat next year ...
the Mavs won with 1 super-star & 7 role-players. No team like that has won 2 years in a row ...
and it'll be interesting to see if Dwight Howard & Kevin Love can find their side-kicks soon enough ...

I disagree that saying Pippen and Jordan playing together alongside a decent PF kills the argument the Heat 3 can coexist. Pippin knew his place in the peckin order and does not have the ego of Lebron. There is the potential issue with Miami going forward. IMO.

[Apollo]

LeBron doesn't think of himself as a sidekick. His abilities are a lot closer to Magic Johnson. He needs the ball in his hands creating for others. If LeBron could have hit some shots in crunch time we wouldn't be even having this conversation. He's young and he'll figure it out in my opinion.

[Boko]

...From what I see they have three guys, for sure, that represent what they should be about if they truly want to win it. Ed, Amir and DeMar. The rest are maybes and not a chances. Bayless is a maybe. Reggie is a maybe because of his age. Jose is a not a chance. Ditto for Bargnani.

James is a maybe, as well, IMHO.

Reggie should be a player coach next season, on the cheap, and more coach than player.

Leandro is in between maybe and 'not a chance'. If we acquire a scary Swing, Leandro's a 'not a chance'.

[Boko]

LeBron doesn't think of himself as a sidekick. His abilities are a lot closer to Magic Johnson. He needs the ball in his hands creating for others. If LeBron could have hit some shots in crunch time we wouldn't be even having this conversation. He's young and he'll figure it out in my opinion.

Hypothetically, would I trade Dwyane away to get Lebron for the rest of his career? YES! I'd like to remind everyone that even MJ took 7 years to win his first championship (at the age of 28). Lebron is 25 ...

[Boko]

... There is the potential issue with Miami going forward. IMO.

Yes, and it's an issue 29 other NBA teams wish they had to deal with. Lebron is the mega-star. Dwayne is the super-star. They can afford to trade Chris away to get the kind of role players that this team needs most.

[Apollo]

Hypothetically, would I trade Dwyane away to get Lebron for the rest of his career? YES! I'd like to remind everyone that even MJ took 7 years to win his first championship (at the age of 28). Lebron is 25 ...

Forget that I would trade Wade for James because Wade is 30, has already been hit with a tough injury and his high contact game leaves him highly vulnerable for a bad injury in the future. The talent of both is comparable. Wade has that killer instinct but I give him three more seasons, max, before you start to see him take a step back.

[Boko]

Forget that I would trade Wade for James because Wade is 30, has already been hit with a tough injury and his high contact game leaves him highly vulnerable for a bad injury in the future. The talent of both is comparable. Wade has that killer instinct but I give him three more seasons, max, before you start to see him take a step back.

Actually, I once did a review of 30 all-star careers, and the age of 30 was the last year of their peak, on average. At 31, there was usually a significant drop-off in individual performance ... The normal all-star career had PERs of 19 at the age of 24, 21 at the age of 25, 28 at the ages of 26 & 27, then back down to 21 at the age of 28, an off year at the age of 29, and one last gasp of 21 at the age of 30.

[Apollo]

Wade isn't average. That's the thing.

[Boko]

Wade isn't average. That's the thing.

No all-star is average.

If you HAVE TO bet the home on a star after 30, your odds are diminishing. Mother Nature allows few exceptions (... like MJ). Yes, they exist, but you don't bet the home on them beating her.

The average ALL-STAR drops to a PER of 14 at the age of 31, and gets WORSE every year afterwards.

[Maleko]

No all-star is average.

If you HAVE TO bet the home on a star after 30, your odds are diminishing. Mother Nature allows few exceptions (... like MJ). Yes, they exist, but you don't bet the home on them beating her.

The average ALL-STAR drops to a PER of 14 at the age of 31, and gets WORSE every year afterwards.

And yet Kobe is a 23.9 at 32. PER is not the be-all end-all. Age is definitely a factor though. All things equal I take Wade every time on my team over Lebron, (btw Lebron is 26 not 25) but he (Wade) is more of a flow guy for a team. Lebron gets his assists, but never seems to get his teammates in the flow of the game. I was excited to watch him as a player coming into the league, and have been disappointed ever since. Will he win a ring or rings? I truly am back and forth on that, but the smart money is on yes at least one. But before he gets one he will have to mature a lot, and I have seen many an excuse saying he is still young and needs time to mature. BS. He is freakin 26. Sure Lebron is a great player, but watching any games of the Heat this year, the team flows way better with Wade on the floor. Now, since Wade is 29 going on 30 as you say, that does have an effect, but considering salary and timing, I keep Wade over Lebron, especially since I get more for trading Lebron.

[Bendit]

And yet Kobe is a 23.9 at 32. PER is not the be-all end-all. Age is definitely a factor though. All things equal I take Wade every time on my team over Lebron, (btw Lebron is 26 not 25) but he (Wade) is more of a flow guy for a team. Lebron gets his assists, but never seems to get his teammates in the flow of the game. I was excited to watch him as a player coming into the league, and have been disappointed ever since. Will he win a ring or rings? I truly am back and forth on that, but the smart money is on yes at least one. But before he gets one he will have to mature a lot, and I have seen many an excuse saying he is still young and needs time to mature. BS. He is freakin 26. Sure Lebron is a great player, but watching any games of the Heat this year, the team flows way better with Wade on the floor. Now, since Wade is 29 going on 30 as you say, that does have an effect, but considering salary and timing, I keep Wade over Lebron, especially since I get more for trading Lebron.

Sure LJ will win one. I think what you meant tosay was whether he will win as a true catalyst/linchpin/because of him reason. Like MJ, Kobe, Dirk, Bird, Magic, Karim even Garnett and Shaq etc....players who were clearly the leaders or A1 of their teams. I did nt think so and this is a bit sacrilegeous but he needs to improve his game! The post mostly. He has been cruising on his athleticism so far but the Mavs defense seems to have exposed at least a flaw...that he cannot maintain his jump shot for too long. And of course deal with that intangible...the deer in the headlights look when its crunch time in the big games (not in season)....when he is behind and the defense is fierce and his j is not falling. This has at least happened in two consecutive playoff years. And stop calling himself King James until at least he has won the big one. MJ afterall took 7 yrs. before that happened @28.

As far as rings go. Adam Morrison after all won/has multiple rings by just being there!

[Boko]

And yet Kobe is a 23.9 at 32. PER is not the be-all end-all. Age is definitely a factor though. All things equal I take Wade every time on my team over Lebron, (btw Lebron is 26 not 25) but he (Wade) is more of a flow guy for a team. Lebron gets his assists, but never seems to get his teammates in the flow of the game. I was excited to watch him as a player coming into the league, and have been disappointed ever since. Will he win a ring or rings? I truly am back and forth on that, but the smart money is on yes at least one. But before he gets one he will have to mature a lot, and I have seen many an excuse saying he is still young and needs time to mature. BS. He is freakin 26. Sure Lebron is a great player, but watching any games of the Heat this year, the team flows way better with Wade on the floor. Now, since Wade is 29 going on 30 as you say, that does have an effect, but considering salary and timing, I keep Wade over Lebron, especially since I get more for trading Lebron.

The average career of 30 retired NBA all-stars had PERs of:
AGE: 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
PER: 09 09 19 21 28 29 21 17 23 14 14 11

I'll continue to use PER until someone shows me a faster way to measure a career more accurately, thank you very much.

[Maleko]

The average career of 30 retired NBA all-stars had PERs of:
AGE: 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
PER: 09 09 19 21 28 29 21 17 23 14 14 11

I'll continue to use PER until someone shows me a faster way to measure a career more accurately, thank you very much.

ok then. You are welcome very much, but maybe you shouldn't get testy, just relax man, I was in no way attacking your data, simply expressing an opinion that suggests looking beyond just the PER for a decision should one need to be made in Miami's case.

However, since you are using PER and an average of players (yes yes all-star) at that, it should not, in my opinion of course here not any attack at you please in no way take this personally or heretofore perceive as a slight against your method of measurements to base your opinions on players to keep or trade in perpetuity (I hope you are reading the lightness of tone here), be the only consideration and that judging a player on previous player averages is not telling a whole story. Yes, every player declines as they age, they are not wines or top end cigars (although some sure seem to whine a lot, ok...too much), however my point as I at least tried to convey, again in my opinion, is that Wade is a more valuable player to the team than Lebron, and Lebron is more valuable as a trade chip. Your 30 retired all-stars aside, Kobe is, in fact, drastically beyond them in terms of his 23.9 PER at age 32, so perhaps both Wade and Lebron are outliers in the data as well.

That aside, a more serious question for you is given your argument and data as a reason for keeping or trading players, should Miami wait and dump Lebron also after next year since that will be his final peak year, and his trade value should be at his peak as well?

[Boko]

Your reply would appear testy, as well, if you had two tooth root infections ...

As a GM, I'd at least consider trading a 28 year old. It would depend on what people were offering me in return. To me, a team full of 25 to 30 year olds is optimal, period. But that's just me...

[Maleko]

Your reply would appear testy, as well, if you had two tooth root infections ...

As a GM, I'd at least consider trading a 28 year old. It would depend on what people were offering me in return. To me, a team full of 25 to 30 year olds is optimal, period. But that's just me...

Actually me as well. Youth, athleticism, one would assume some talent, and it salary shouldn't be stupidly out of hand.