Your mathematics depress me
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2012 Draft Thursday, June 28th: Raptors select Terence Ross
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Matt52 wrote: View PostOdds of pick 1, 2, or 3 based on end of season record:
Modified from this link: http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral...andings_a.html
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Matt52 wrote: View PostOdds of pick 1, 2, or 3 based on end of season record:
Modified from this link: http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral...andings_a.html
That is, 2.8% + 3.3% + 3.9%
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Nilanka wrote: View PostSo if I understand correctly, if we finish 8th from the bottom (worst-case scenario), we have a 10% chance at a top 3 pick?
That is, 2.8% + 3.3% + 3.9%
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CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View PostNope. I believe it's 2.8% chance of getting #1 pick. Then, once all the balls belonging to the team picking 1st are removed, the odds increase to 3.3% for getting the #2 pick, then again up to 3.9% for getting the #3 pick. The # of balls the Raptors have in the draw is a constant, whereas the pool of total balls is decreased for the drawing of each of the top 3 picks, hence the slightly increased odds.
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Nilanka wrote: View PostDo we know what our odds are of a top 3 pick (if we finish 8th last)?
Looking at the NBA Draft Lottery wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery
It shows the following table:
Seed
Chances
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
1
250
.250
.215
.178
.357
2
199
.199
.188
.171
.319
.123
3
156
.156
.157
.156
.226
.265
.040
4
119
.119
.126
.133
.099
.351
.160
.012
5
88
.088
.097
.107
.261
.360
.084
.004
6
63
.063
.071
.081
.439
.305
.040
.001
7
43
.043
.049
.058
.599
.232
.018
.000
8
28
.028
.033
.039
.724
.168
.008
.000
9
17
.017
.020
.024
.813
.122
.004
.000
10
11
.011
.013
.016
.870
.089
.002
.000
11
8
.008
.009
.012
.907
.063
.001
.000
12
7
.007
.008
.010
.935
.039
.000
13
6
.006
.007
.009
.960
.018
14
5
.005
.006
.007
.982
Each row adds up to 100%. So the 8th place team (assuming no ties) should have a 10.0% chance of getting a top 3 pick. Where as the 5th place team would have a 29.2% chance.
*EDIT* - not sure why all the blank lines. I just copied the table in html from the wiki site and pasted it here. In my edit screen there are no blank lines.
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Tonight marks the last night of the 2011-12 NBA regular season, and while 16 teams are preparing for their first round match-ups, there are 14 teams who are now in full-time draft mode.
One of the more interesting teams that didn’t make it to the playoffs is the Toronto Raptors, a team that is poised to have the biggest offseason in the history of their franchise. They’ve been mired in mediocrity for some time, but with the right head coach now leading the team, a group of solid players who bought into his system and two lottery pick players ready to join the team next season, the Raptors should bring a new golden age of professional basketball to Canada in 2012-13.
The NBA hasn’t held the draft lottery yet (May 30), but the Raptors are likely to be drafting in the 6-7 range after the ping pong balls work their magic. That being the case, UNC’s Harrison Barnes should be of great interest to the Raptors. They have the front court taken care of with Andrea Bargnani, Ed Davis, Amir Johnson, James Johnson, Linas Kleiza, Jonas Valanciunas and Solomon Alabi (team option) under contract for next season. They could use some depth behind DeMar DeRozan at shooting guard, but that’s more of a free agency issue. What they really need from their first round pick is a legit wing player to complement the rest of the roster, and there just happens to be a player fitting that profile in this year’s lottery.
UNC small forward Harrison Barnes is not a future Hall of Famer by any stretch of the imagination, and he is not the guy you build your franchise around. Fortunately, the Raptors don’t need a franchise player – they already have some solid candidates for that label in DeRozan and Bargnani, and possibly Valanciunas. What they need is a great intangibles guy who will make the defense pay for overlooking him, and that role fits Barnes to a tee.
Barnes may not be great, but he is very good in a lot of areas. On the offensive end, Barnes ranked in the 73rd percentile in transition, 65th in post-ups, 64th in isolation, 64th as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll, and 60th when coming off screens. He’s not much of a spot-up shooter and doesn’t cut to the basket for easy scores, but otherwise he does a lot of things well. The fact that Barnes is good in transition could help the Raptors address one of their biggest weaknesses on the season, as they ranked just 16th in the NBA in transition offense. He could also shore up their post-up game, where the Raptors were 19th in the league this season. Where Barnes struggles – the spot-up game – Toronto ranked 6th in the league this season, by far their nest offensive category, so that part of Barnes’ game wouldn’t be missed.
He’s not much of a defender, ranking in the 77th percentile when defending a pick-and-roll ball handler 64th in defending a spot-up shooter. Otherwise his rankings are pretty low, 42nd percentile and below across the board. That’s not ideal, but it’s not terrible either, as the Raptors have plenty of size in the paint to help clean up penetrating perimeter players.
Again, Barnes is not a franchise player who is ready to take the NBA by storm and make a franchise his own. He is, however, a great all-around player with strengths in a wide range of areas. He can step into a situation where a team already has some star players and be the James Harden, Jason Terry type of player who makes the stars more effective by filling in the gaps and torching an unsuspecting defense.
Don’t be surprised of the Raptors call Harrison Barnes’ number on draft night.@Chr1st1anL
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