Whoever told you skies the limit is looking dumb because I'm 22 and i'm moonwalking on the sun.
To get that 4th pick, Raptors would have to land in the bottom 3 of the standings, a feat even tankers will admit seems improbable. New Orleans is the closest team (to catch) with 40 losses, to the Raptor's 35 losses. We have 13 games left - as do N.Orleans - so Toronto would have to play absolute sh!t (2 wins in the next 13 games), while N.O. plays 500+ ball.
Looking at the draft pick odds, one of the top 3 lottery spots will most likely be snagged by a lottery team outside that range. And given that scenario, it would bump one of those bottom 3 teams down to the 4th spot.
To illustrate, let's make an assumption that the 1st pick goes to one of the other lottery teams, and the order remains the same after that:
- The lucky f#@kers who get Davis
- New Orleans
So .... the only advice I could give to Chad, is to brush up on his math. Cause we ain't picking 4th - statistically speaking.
Last edited by RapthoseLeafs; Tue Apr 3rd, 2012 at 03:29 PM.
And for the record, his math is correct when speaking about probabilities. Although Charlotte has a 75% chance of NOT getting the #1 pick, no single team has a higher % of getting it, so probabilities would dictate them to be projected as picking in that #1 slot.... and so on. Plus, you can run the lottery as many times as you want, to see all the various outcomes and who the Raptors are projected to pick in each of them.
if we win tonight vs the bobkitties and the cavs lose to the spurs and nets lose to the lakers we'll "jump" from 4th to 6th where we'll be tied with the kings.
someone give the boys some week old beans!
The 4th seed has a slightly higher probability of selecting #5-7 than #1-4 (about 52% vs. 48%).
For the ESPN draft lottery machine, it makes sense to start with teams at their seeding and then let the probabilities determine what the possible combinations are. Otherwise, there is no logical non-statistical approach to seeding the teams based purely on standings.
i think the raptors will take beal over t-rob. if we drop to the mid ones i would like terrance jones or barnes. or a trade down to grab marshall and miller. or if no miller and no one else had done it a fly on pj3 who i like the least of the bunch
we're tied for 6th worse now, meaning more than likely we'll have pick 6 or 7. i really hope BC does everything he can to move up and take MKG or Beal.
im feeling nauseous just thinking about it all
Yeah I think we will finish 5th or 6th, and possibly slide a bit. We have four games against teams under .500 (NJN, at Bucks, at Pistons, and Cleveland). I think we will add 4 or 5 more wins over the last 12 games. SAC has a tough schedule going forward and I can see either Cleveland or NJN finishing with a worse record than us.
PJ3 will rise in workouts. 6'11 dribbling through cones like a guard, make every open jumper and than throwing it down while his heads at the rim. Seriously you telling GMs wont fall in love with that?
2:13 this guy could so play the 3 at the next level
sorry just got hypnotized by the potential
Last edited by Chr1s1anL; Tue Apr 3rd, 2012 at 11:35 PM.
Aaron Craft early second round if he makes it to us?
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