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Thread: 2012 Draft Thursday, June 28th: Raptors select Terence Ross

  1. #1821
    Raptors Republic Rookie Jon_Wade's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Wroten intrigues me...... but not as a PG.

    Wroten reminds me of Tyreke Evans.
    thats what I thought too, would be nice to have a sg that can handle the rock at good level, and if some GMs are fixed on guys who upped their stock in the tournement maybe he drops to second round?
    Whoever told you skies the limit is looking dumb because I'm 22 and i'm moonwalking on the sun.

  2. #1822
    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    doubtful
    @jerboat

  3. #1823
    Raptors Republic Starter RapthoseLeafs's Avatar
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    Default The Odds of picking 4th - Don't Bet on it

    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Ford's new mock draft on ESPN has the Raptors taking Beal with the #4 pick (Davis, MKG, Robinson are top 3 picks).
    We have a better chance of getting the 1-3 picks, then we do 4th - statistically speaking. I think guys like Ford need to consult a Statistician before expressing their Kreskin predictions.

    To get that 4th pick, Raptors would have to land in the bottom 3 of the standings, a feat even tankers will admit seems improbable. New Orleans is the closest team (to catch) with 40 losses, to the Raptor's 35 losses. We have 13 games left - as do N.Orleans - so Toronto would have to play absolute sh!t (2 wins in the next 13 games), while N.O. plays 500+ ball.

    Looking at the draft pick odds, one of the top 3 lottery spots will most likely be snagged by a lottery team outside that range. And given that scenario, it would bump one of those bottom 3 teams down to the 4th spot.

    To illustrate, let's make an assumption that the 1st pick goes to one of the other lottery teams, and the order remains the same after that:


    1. The lucky f#@kers who get Davis
    2. Charlotte
    3. Washington
    4. New Orleans


    So .... the only advice I could give to Chad, is to brush up on his math. Cause we ain't picking 4th - statistically speaking.

    .
    Last edited by RapthoseLeafs; Tue Apr 3rd, 2012 at 04:29 PM.

  4. #1824
    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Quote RapthoseLeafs wrote: View Post
    We have a better chance of getting the 1-3 picks, then we do 4th - statistically speaking. I think guys like Ford need to consult a Statistician before expressing their Kreskin predictions.

    To get that 4th pick, Raptors would have to land in the bottom 3 of the standings, a feat even tankers will admit seems improbable. New Orleans is the closest team (to catch) with 40 losses, to the Raptor's 35 losses. We have 13 games left - as do N.Orleans - so Toronto would have to play absolute sh!t (2 wins in the next 13 games), while N.O. plays 500+ ball.

    Looking at the draft pick odds, one of the top 3 lottery spots will most likely be snagged by a lottery team outside that range. And given that scenario, it would bump one of those bottom 3 teams down to the 4th spot.

    To illustrate, let's make an assumption that the 1st pick goes to one of the other lottery teams, and the order remains the same after that:


    1. The lucky f#@kers who get Davis
    2. Charlotte
    3. Washington
    4. New Orleans


    So .... the only advice I could give to Chad, is to brush up on his math. Cause we ain't picking 4th - statistically speaking.

    .
    The only way you can possibly do any draft projections ahead of the draft lottery, with any semblence of credibility, is to base it on current standings. To do otherwise (aka predict the draft lottery as well as the draft), would be foolish and illogical. In that case, you might as well just assign players to the team you want them to go to.

    And for the record, his math is correct when speaking about probabilities. Although Charlotte has a 75% chance of NOT getting the #1 pick, no single team has a higher % of getting it, so probabilities would dictate them to be projected as picking in that #1 slot.... and so on. Plus, you can run the lottery as many times as you want, to see all the various outcomes and who the Raptors are projected to pick in each of them.

  5. #1825
    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    if we win tonight vs the bobkitties and the cavs lose to the spurs and nets lose to the lakers we'll "jump" from 4th to 6th where we'll be tied with the kings.

    someone give the boys some week old beans!
    @jerboat

  6. #1826
    Raptors Republic Superstar Chr1s1anL's Avatar
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    Quote ceez wrote: View Post
    if we win tonight vs the bobkitties and the cavs lose to the spurs and nets lose to the lakers we'll "jump" from 4th to 6th where we'll be tied with the kings.

    someone give the boys some week old beans!
    Tim said it were destined to draft Barnes lol. Which Wouldnt be the worse thing.

  7. #1827
    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
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    Quote ceez wrote: View Post
    I was alluding to the fact DeMar doesnt do either very well.
    Thats why he is number 2 in free throws attempted right?

  8. #1828
    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
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    Quote ceez wrote: View Post
    I was alluding to the fact DeMar doesnt do either very well.
    He is still better than most starting SG's in the NBA. A lot of people want OJ Mayo but i think he is a downgrade from demar he has only scored 20 points 4 times this season and he isn't a great defender and he also gives up 3 inches in height.

  9. #1829
    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    Quote Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
    Tim said it were destined to draft Barnes lol. Which Wouldnt be the worse thing.
    I'd rather see if we could trade down and get Marshall and Ross somehow

  10. #1830
    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote NoPropsneeded wrote: View Post
    He is still better than most starting SG's in the NBA. A lot of people want OJ Mayo but i think he is a downgrade from demar he has only scored 20 points 4 times this season and he isn't a great defender and he also gives up 3 inches in height.
    OJ Mayo is playing off the bench though, so you could use that as an argument why he hasn't scored 20 points consistently. And he's a better defender than Demar, and more skilled than Demar.

  11. #1831
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    The only way you can possibly do any draft projections ahead of the draft lottery, with any semblence of credibility, is to base it on current standings. To do otherwise (aka predict the draft lottery as well as the draft), would be foolish and illogical. In that case, you might as well just assign players to the team you want them to go to.

    And for the record, his math is correct when speaking about probabilities. Although Charlotte has a 75% chance of NOT getting the #1 pick, no single team has a higher % of getting it, so probabilities would dictate them to be projected as picking in that #1 slot.... and so on. Plus, you can run the lottery as many times as you want, to see all the various outcomes and who the Raptors are projected to pick in each of them.
    Well, yes and no. Actually, compared to other seeds Charlotte has the highest probably of selecting at #1, #2, #3 and #4. Toronto has a lower probability of selecting at #4 (if they stay at the 4 seed) than any of the top three teams, and has the highest probability of selecting 5th (of its choices, and compared to other teams).

    The 4th seed has a slightly higher probability of selecting #5-7 than #1-4 (about 52% vs. 48%).

    For the ESPN draft lottery machine, it makes sense to start with teams at their seeding and then let the probabilities determine what the possible combinations are. Otherwise, there is no logical non-statistical approach to seeding the teams based purely on standings.

  12. #1832
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    Quote Chr1s1anL wrote: View Post
    Tim said it were destined to draft Barnes lol. Which Wouldnt be the worse thing.
    If the Raptors aren't in the top five picks, I expect that all the picks will look quite a bit riskier than Barnes. It would be a hard call to go with someone else. Maybe someone will like Barnes enough to trade up, but if it is a straight pick Barnes might be the guy.

  13. #1833
    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    i think the raptors will take beal over t-rob. if we drop to the mid ones i would like terrance jones or barnes. or a trade down to grab marshall and miller. or if no miller and no one else had done it a fly on pj3 who i like the least of the bunch

  14. #1834
    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    we're tied for 6th worse now, meaning more than likely we'll have pick 6 or 7. i really hope BC does everything he can to move up and take MKG or Beal.
    @jerboat

  15. #1835
    Raptors Republic Veteran ceez's Avatar
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    im feeling nauseous just thinking about it all
    @jerboat

  16. #1836
    Raptors Republic Starter saints91's Avatar
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    Yeah I think we will finish 5th or 6th, and possibly slide a bit. We have four games against teams under .500 (NJN, at Bucks, at Pistons, and Cleveland). I think we will add 4 or 5 more wins over the last 12 games. SAC has a tough schedule going forward and I can see either Cleveland or NJN finishing with a worse record than us.

  17. #1837
    Raptors Republic Superstar Chr1s1anL's Avatar
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    Quote ceez wrote: View Post
    I'd rather see if we could trade down and get Marshall and Ross somehow
    It's funny what six months can do. If something would of said that Barnes would be are worse case scenario ppl would be going crazy.
    @Chr1st1anL

  18. #1838
    Raptors Republic Superstar Chr1s1anL's Avatar
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    PJ3 will rise in workouts. 6'11 dribbling through cones like a guard, make every open jumper and than throwing it down while his heads at the rim. Seriously you telling GMs wont fall in love with that?

    2:13 this guy could so play the 3 at the next level




    sorry just got hypnotized by the potential
    Last edited by Chr1s1anL; Wed Apr 4th, 2012 at 12:35 AM.
    @Chr1st1anL

  19. #1839
    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    Aaron Craft early second round if he makes it to us?

  20. #1840
    Raptors Republic Starter saints91's Avatar
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    Quote Miekenstien wrote: View Post
    Aaron Craft early second round if he makes it to us?
    Is he declaring? I have yet to see him on a draft board, but I would love to have him on this team.

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