Speaking of Kemba, it seems that Valanciunas is just as much of a winner as Kemba. Leading his team to the U16, U18 and U19 Championships while earning MVP in all those tournaments.
The comparison to Pau is weak, I agree. Other than them both being white, European and 7 feet, I don't see it.
Sabonis doesn't make sense unless you watch early Sabonis, not the one who played in the NBA. If you watch early Sabonis, you can see the comparison.
As for saying he's a thinner Noah, Valanciunas is actually bigger than Noah. Noah, when he was drafted, was 223 lbs. Valanciunas is closer to 240 lbs. And he was 2 years older than Valanciunas when he was drafted.
I think Chandler is far closer than Biedrins. Biedrins is a good rebounder and shot blocker, but he's not nearly as fluid an athlete as Valanciunas is, and Valanciunas is a better offensive player right now than Biedrins is after 6 years in the NBA.
This is from the 1986 World Championships in Spain. I believe he was 20 or 21 at the time.
All footage is against the USA, and being defended by David "The Admiral" Robinson.
Now heres footage of JV from the U19 Championship:
Note the fire with which they play. The agression. Explosive dunks. Midrange game. Nice passes. Solid Defense.
It looks like Sabonis was more polished on the offensive end; however, you did say he was a year or two older.
At this point I am projecting Noah to be the closest comparison. Noah's (at 22) first year stats were:
MPG - 20.7
FG% - 48.2%
FT - 69.1% (on only 2.6 attempts/game)
ORB - 2.4
DRB - 3.3
TRB - 5.6
AST - 1.1
STL - 0.9
BLK - 0.9
TOV - 1.2
PF - 2.3
PTS - 6.6
The higher free throw percentage should translate into a few more points. I also see more free throw attempts occuring. Do these stats look like a good projection for Jonas' first year? What are your over/unders on these numbers?
Kemba beat players who were drafted ahead of himself. I didn't really follow this tournament, so maybe I'm wrong about this but were any 2011 NBA Draft players in this tournament besides Valanciunas?
Last edited by ebrian; Mon Jul 11th, 2011 at 02:31 PM.
I dont know about you guys but i feel that he plays alot like Kevin Garnett. They are both lanky, solid defenders with good help side defense. Offensively, neither can body up his man but they have a nack for catching in the post and finishing at the rim. They can both step out and knock down the open mid-ranged jumper. Jonas seems to have the intangibles that KG has. They love to play with heart and leave it all out on the floor.
I don't really see the comparisons to Vlade and Joakim. Vlade excelled in the offensive side of the ball (could even play a bit of point-forward) but didn't really rebound much. Noah is a good one on one defender but is slow on the weak side. Offensively, Jonas is light years ahead.
To say 'ahead offesively' might be slightly general in statement, but Biedrins averaged 3 points a game as a rookie. I think JV would be better than 3 points a game, if he played this 'upcoming' season.
Mind you, Offense isn't what Biedrins brings to a team, so I think it is unfair in comparison.
Thats like saying the US is better at managing money than Haiti.
But JV could shoot 33% from the Free Throw line with his Eyes closed.
Last edited by Joey; Mon Jul 11th, 2011 at 03:13 PM.
It's one thing to compare one player to another, but it's another to start saying that they are already better than another when you haven't even seen them play at the same level. You have to admit that this is crazy talk, unless we have different definitions of "waaay".
He's waaay ahead of Biedrins and Noah offensively.
Chandler I just don't see. That guy could jump out of the gym (especially when younger)... Jonas I haven't seen that from.
Sabonis I could see, but he had a very diverse offensive game and he could very well have been the best passing 7+fter the game has ever seen.... and I haven't seen that from Jonas
As for Noah... I'm not at all convinced he was 220lbs when he entered the NBA (do you know how skinny that is at 6'11?). If he was, then there is no way Jonas is 240. Jan Vesley is said to be as heavy as Noah is right now (while the same height), I just don't buy it. (Now I will say weight and strength and size aren't finite with how people look... muscle mass weighs more than fat etc etc.... but I put little value in how these guys are sized.)
I also don't see this fluidity/athleticsim/agility that you do in Jonas (not saying he is uncoordinated... just not to Chandler or Dwights degree... much more to Biendrins or Big Z). No doubt we'll have to agree to disagree on that, but I just don't see it.
And why do you say that that other players in the tournament aren't headed to the NBA? I'm betting there will be quite a number of them, not just on the US team. JUst because they haven't been drafted yet, doesn't mean they aren't going to be. Most of these guys are just 19 years old. Many less than that. There might be a couple of lottery picks just on the US team.
Yes, Chandler is a better leaper than Valanciunas, but leaping ability in a big man isn't really all that important. And while Chandler gets a lot of high flying dunks, due to his leaping ability, rebounds and blocks are usually gotten by timing and position, not by jumping ability.
And Noah weighed 223 when weighed at the Chicago Combine before the draft. And Draft Express lists Valanciunas at 240 lbs, and while it may not be exact (or it may be), I would say he's definitely around there. He isn't bulky, but he's not a beanpole at all. He's bigger than Bosh was when he was drafted.
Look at Valanciunas at the U19:
And look at Noah when he was at Florida, so about the same age (actually slightly older):
Valanciunas has broader shoulders than Noah does, so he would carry more weight without looking like it. Plus, he's probably got a good chance of becoming bigger than Noah because of it.
If you believe the similarity scores he is most like Chandler (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1771 - can't see the score, it's probably in the part for subcribers) or Howard (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1777).
The similarity score with Howard is 90.3 is pretty low; "In this case, because Valanciunas is so young, the pool of potential matches is very small. Take out age as a factor and Tyson Chandler pops up repeatedly." All other players listed have at least a 95+ comparison score.
So, these results are not as meaningfull as some of the other scores. But these similarity scores seem to have some big flaws, in 2009 Blake Griffin had a similarity score of 96,7 with Kevin Love... (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...?articleid=710).
So ... overall this might be quite a useless post by me.
Dennis Rodman in a Centers body lol ... more of an offensive repertoire with a better touch at rim
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