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**er1csh3n** · Mon Aug 1, 2011, 03:51 PM

Except we actually have a reason to actually like him so....

**planetmars** · Mon Aug 1, 2011, 05:58 PM

In order to really discuss Derozan's potential I found the best way is to compare him with other top tier wings in the league. I don't necessarily mean Wade, Kobe or Jordan because those are very special players. But I think it makes sense to start looking at some all-star talented guys and compare their first two season's with Derozan's and to see how far Derozan is from someone who would be considered a top talented player, and not just some scrub you could throw away for any draft pick.

So here are stats I pulled from basketball-reference.com:

Code:

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
09/10  Demar Derozan    20    21.4    8.6   2.9   49.8  76.3   0.7    0.8    0.6    12.5   2.3   110   115   18.1
10/11  Demar Derozan    21    34.5    17.2  3.8   46.7  81.3   1.8    1.8    1.0    14.4   3.3   106   114   23.1
 
Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
96/97  Ray Allen        21    30.9    13.4  4.0   43.0  82.3   2.6    1.8    0.9    14.6   4.9   109   110   21.4
97/98  Ray Allen        22    40.1    19.5  4.9   42.8  87.5   4.3    3.2    1.4    16.2   7.0   106   108   24.3

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
05/06  Monta Ellis      20    18.1    6.8   2.1   41.5  71.2   1.6    1.2    0.7    11.1   0.5   95    107   20.2
06/07  Monta Ellis      21    34.3    16.5  3.2   47.5  76.3   4.1    2.9    1.7    15.0   4.0   104   109   22.4

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
06/07  Rudy Gay         20    27.0    10.8  4.5   42.2  72.7   1.3    1.8    0.9    12.4   0.5   96    111   21.3
07/08  Rudy Gay         21    37.0    20.1  6.2   46.1  78.5   2.0    2.3    1.4    17.4   5.0   106   110   25.0

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
05/06  Danny Granger    22    22.6    7.5   4.9   46.2  77.7   1.2    1.0    0.7    14.7   5.1   110   101   16.4
06/07  Danny Granger    23    34.0    13.9  4.6   45.9  80.3   1.4    1.6    0.8    13.9   6.5   111   107   18.2

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
99/00  Rich. Hamilton   21    19.3    9.0   1.8   42.0  77.4   1.5    1.2    0.4    11.6   0.7   98    111   24.2
00/01  Rich. Hamilton   22    32.3    18.1  3.1   43.8  86.8   2.9    2.6    1.0    15.7   2.4   100   111   28.1

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
04/05  Andre Iguodala   21    32.8    9.0   5.7   49.3  74.3   3.0    1.7    1.7    13.5   6.6   110   102   12.8
05/06  Andre Iguodala   22    37.6    12.3  5.9   50.0  75.4   3.1    1.9    1.6    14.8   7.5   115   108   14.7

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
01/02  Rich. Jefferson  21    24.3    9.4   3.7   45.7  71.3   1.8    1.4    0.8    13.4   4.7   104   101   19.1
02/03  Rich. Jefferson  22    36.0    15.5  6.4   50.1  74.3   2.5    2.0    1.0    16.6   9.9   111   100   19.7

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
01/02  Joe Johnson      20    24.9    7.5   3.3   43.0  77.4   2.3    0.9    0.77   11.8   3.0   102   105   16.0
02/03  Joe Johnson      21    27.3    9.8   3.2   39.7  77.4   2.6    1.3    0.8    12.10  2.8   99    105   19.1
 
Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
04/05  Kevin Martin     21    10.1    2.9   1.3   38.5  65.5   0.5    0.5    0.4    8.7    0.1   96    111   16.1
05/06  Kevin Martin     22    26.6    10.8  3.6   48.0  84.7   1.3    1.1    0.8    14.8   5.5   116   107   17.4

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
98/99  Paul Pierce      21    34.0    16.5  6.4   43.9  71.3   2.4    2.4    1.7    19.2   4.9   106   101   23.1
99/00  Paul Pierce      22    35.4    19.5  5.4   44.2  79.8   3.0    2.4    2.1    19.8   8.2   109   103   24.8

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
01/02  Michael Redd*    22    21.1    11.4  3.3   48.3  79.1   1.4    0.9    0.6    20.0   4.6   116   109   23.7
02/03  Michael Redd*    23    28.2    15.1  4.5   46.9  80.5   1.4    0.9    1.2    21.0   8.0   118   108   22.6
* Rookie Year only played 6 games, so not including it

I'd say the best comparison might be between Joe Johnson, Richard Hamilton, and Monta Ellis. Derozan definitely needs to improve in some areas. His defense may improve with Casey on board - but if it does not improve or slips, then I would definitely consider him a tradeable asset. The other area he needs to improve on is his assists. Although his ball handling skills is a known deficiency in his game. Hopefully that improves or else he can become an easy target on defense. Rebounds are low too, but he's a guard. That's not really a critical skill for his role on the team.

**er1csh3n** · Mon Aug 1, 2011, 06:37 PM

But throughout the season his handle improved...especially towards the end when he would be aggressive, at times he would bring it up court to set a play or sometimes he would drive and make a play, try looking at GameEntertainment's mix on YT

**Prime** · Mon Aug 1, 2011, 10:28 PM

planetmars wrote: View Post

In order to really discuss Derozan's potential I found the best way is to compare him with other top tier wings in the league. I don't necessarily mean Wade, Kobe or Jordan because those are very special players. But I think it makes sense to start looking at some all-star talented guys and compare their first two season's with Derozan's and to see how far Derozan is from someone who would be considered a top talented player, and not just some scrub you could throw away for any draft pick.

So here are stats I pulled from basketball-reference.com:

Code:

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
09/10  Demar Derozan    20    21.4    8.6   2.9   49.8  76.3   0.7    0.8    0.6    12.5   2.3   110   115   18.1
10/11  Demar Derozan    21    34.5    17.2  3.8   46.7  81.3   1.8    1.8    1.0    14.4   3.3   106   114   23.1
 
Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
96/97  Ray Allen        21    30.9    13.4  4.0   43.0  82.3   2.6    1.8    0.9    14.6   4.9   109   110   21.4
97/98  Ray Allen        22    40.1    19.5  4.9   42.8  87.5   4.3    3.2    1.4    16.2   7.0   106   108   24.3

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
05/06  Monta Ellis      20    18.1    6.8   2.1   41.5  71.2   1.6    1.2    0.7    11.1   0.5   95    107   20.2
06/07  Monta Ellis      21    34.3    16.5  3.2   47.5  76.3   4.1    2.9    1.7    15.0   4.0   104   109   22.4

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
06/07  Rudy Gay         20    27.0    10.8  4.5   42.2  72.7   1.3    1.8    0.9    12.4   0.5   96    111   21.3
07/08  Rudy Gay         21    37.0    20.1  6.2   46.1  78.5   2.0    2.3    1.4    17.4   5.0   106   110   25.0

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
05/06  Danny Granger    22    22.6    7.5   4.9   46.2  77.7   1.2    1.0    0.7    14.7   5.1   110   101   16.4
06/07  Danny Granger    23    34.0    13.9  4.6   45.9  80.3   1.4    1.6    0.8    13.9   6.5   111   107   18.2

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
99/00  Rich. Hamilton   21    19.3    9.0   1.8   42.0  77.4   1.5    1.2    0.4    11.6   0.7   98    111   24.2
00/01  Rich. Hamilton   22    32.3    18.1  3.1   43.8  86.8   2.9    2.6    1.0    15.7   2.4   100   111   28.1

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
04/05  Andre Iguodala   21    32.8    9.0   5.7   49.3  74.3   3.0    1.7    1.7    13.5   6.6   110   102   12.8
05/06  Andre Iguodala   22    37.6    12.3  5.9   50.0  75.4   3.1    1.9    1.6    14.8   7.5   115   108   14.7

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
01/02  Rich. Jefferson  21    24.3    9.4   3.7   45.7  71.3   1.8    1.4    0.8    13.4   4.7   104   101   19.1
02/03  Rich. Jefferson  22    36.0    15.5  6.4   50.1  74.3   2.5    2.0    1.0    16.6   9.9   111   100   19.7

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
01/02  Joe Johnson      20    24.9    7.5   3.3   43.0  77.4   2.3    0.9    0.77   11.8   3.0   102   105   16.0
02/03  Joe Johnson      21    27.3    9.8   3.2   39.7  77.4   2.6    1.3    0.8    12.10  2.8   99    105   19.1
 
Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
04/05  Kevin Martin     21    10.1    2.9   1.3   38.5  65.5   0.5    0.5    0.4    8.7    0.1   96    111   16.1
05/06  Kevin Martin     22    26.6    10.8  3.6   48.0  84.7   1.3    1.1    0.8    14.8   5.5   116   107   17.4

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
98/99  Paul Pierce      21    34.0    16.5  6.4   43.9  71.3   2.4    2.4    1.7    19.2   4.9   106   101   23.1
99/00  Paul Pierce      22    35.4    19.5  5.4   44.2  79.8   3.0    2.4    2.1    19.8   8.2   109   103   24.8

Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
01/02  Michael Redd*    22    21.1    11.4  3.3   48.3  79.1   1.4    0.9    0.6    20.0   4.6   116   109   23.7
02/03  Michael Redd*    23    28.2    15.1  4.5   46.9  80.5   1.4    0.9    1.2    21.0   8.0   118   108   22.6
* Rookie Year only played 6 games, so not including it

I'd say the best comparison might be between Joe Johnson, Richard Hamilton, and Monta Ellis. Derozan definitely needs to improve in some areas. His defense may improve with Casey on board - but if it does not improve or slips, then I would definitely consider him a tradeable asset. The other area he needs to improve on is his assists. Although his ball handling skills is a known deficiency in his game. Hopefully that improves or else he can become an easy target on defense. Rebounds are low too, but he's a guard. That's not really a critical skill for his role on the team.

I don't see the point of the stats here if you're just gonna do an opinion piece rather than an analysis

**planetmars** · Tue Aug 2, 2011, 12:36 AM

Prime wrote: View Post

I don't see the point of the stats here if you're just gonna do an opinion piece rather than an analysis

I guess my point was that I was trying to back up my opinion with stats, and that its too early to tell what Derozan is going to end up like given that he's only played two full years for the Raptors. When comparing him with other top talents in the league you can argue that his stats are very close to others. So to indicate that he should be traded for any draft pick is a little to premature. He could end up being the next Joe Johnson, who may not be an elite athlete like Jordan, Kobe or Wade - but still a top tier talent in the league. I would not trade Joe Johnson for a top pick in next years draft.

**Prime** · Tue Aug 2, 2011, 10:03 PM

planetmars wrote: View Post

I guess my point was that I was trying to back up my opinion with stats, and that its too early to tell what Derozan is going to end up like given that he's only played two full years for the Raptors. When comparing him with other top talents in the league you can argue that his stats are very close to others. So to indicate that he should be traded for any draft pick is a little to premature. He could end up being the next Joe Johnson, who may not be an elite athlete like Jordan, Kobe or Wade - but still a top tier talent in the league. I would not trade Joe Johnson for a top pick in next years draft.

I see what you mean now. However, I would still suggest you actually do an analysis for each argument you're presenting (e.g. the reason why his offensive rating is similar to Ray Allen's even though they play completely different games) instead of leaving us with a bunch of stats that we can pull from BR anytime.

**NoPropsneeded** · Wed Aug 3, 2011, 09:44 PM

i dont care what anyone else thinks but in my opinion he is going to be a top tier SG just wait and see...

**er1csh3n** · Sat Aug 6, 2011, 01:18 PM

Hear me out, but i think Derozan might actually average 25/5/3, he already averages 17.2/3.8/1.8, so if you round that up thats already 17/4/2 and don't forget his slump in the beginning where Sonny Weems was averaging more points, rebounds and assists, he can definitely average more than 20+ points, and he'll get better at rebounding and being a ballhandler, as he shown improvement from his rookie season, if you look at his game logs starting from Dec 31 against Houston where he had 37 points, a quick glance will make it look like he avg'ed 25/5/3 and if you actually averaged the game out I'm pretty sure you'll get similar #'s

**Joey** · Sat Aug 6, 2011, 01:36 PM

er1csh3n wrote: View Post

Hear me out, but i think Derozan might actually average 25/5/3, he already averages 17.2/3.8/1.8, so if you round that up thats already 17/4/2 and don't forget his slump in the beginning where Sonny Weems was averaging more points, rebounds and assists, he can definitely average more than 20+ points, and he'll get better at rebounding and being a ballhandler, as he shown improvement from his rookie season, if you look at his game logs starting from Dec 31 against Houston where he had 37 points, a quick glance will make it look like he avg'ed 25/5/3 and if you actually averaged the game out I'm pretty sure you'll get similar #'s

In the Final 8 games of the Season, (All of April) he did in fact average 23/5/3.6.
From Dec. 31 - April 13, he averaged 20 Points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2 assists.
(His Stats)

If he can maintain the status quo, and his momentum, from how he finished off the season, I see no reason why he couldn't.

**Tim W.** · Sat Aug 6, 2011, 02:07 PM

I've been a fan of DeRozan since before he was drafted, and have been a defender of him throughout his Raptor career....but....all this talk of him averaging this or that really doesn't take into account the area that he needs to improve the most in: Defense. I'd rather he average the same stats as last year and became a better than average defender, than averaging 25-6-4 and only slightly improved defense. Otherwise he's just a taller Monta Ellis, and I want nothing to do with him.

**WhatWhat** · Sat Aug 6, 2011, 02:28 PM

I'm actually not too worried about his defense. He was average in his rookie year, and really inconsistent in his 2nd year. He's in that stage of his development in that Casey can remove his bad habits and instill good ones.

**Joey** · Sat Aug 6, 2011, 03:16 PM

Tim W. wrote: View Post

I've been a fan of DeRozan since before he was drafted, and have been a defender of him throughout his Raptor career....but....all this talk of him averaging this or that really doesn't take into account the area that he needs to improve the most in: Defense. I'd rather he average the same stats as last year and became a better than average defender, than averaging 25-6-4 and only slightly improved defense. Otherwise he's just a taller Monta Ellis, and I want nothing to do with him.

I completely agree.

But I'd say, in that time frame I discussed earlier, his defense was far more improved than earlier in the season, and especially so over his Rookie season. His footwork improved, his tenacity improved, and given his Elite Athletic abilities, decent wingspan, incredible leaping ability, I see no reason why he can't turn himself into an Elite defender.
Kobe wasn't a reliable defender by any means for his first few seasons, but he put in the work and turned himself into one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

He'll come around.

**planetmars** · Sat Aug 6, 2011, 03:31 PM

joey_hesketh wrote: View Post

Kobe wasn't a reliable defender by any means for his first few seasons, but he put in the work and turned himself into one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

I too believe that Demar will eventually get it on defense, but I wouldn't start comparing him to Kobe. Kobe was an excellent defender even as a rookie. His advanced stats as a rookie and sophomore on defense trumps DeMar's by a mile: http://www.basketball-reference.com/...bryanko01.html

According to the stats anyways, Kobe's defense today is just as good as it was when he started in the league. His offense and the other intangibles like assists and rebounds is what really improved over the years.

**Tim W.** · Sat Aug 6, 2011, 04:01 PM

DeRozan has never been a decent defender. He's shown some potential, but in his rookie season he was not a good defender. I don't see elite potential, and I'm not really sure how anyone else does. He simply doesn't have elite level instincts. You'd have seen that by now, young or not. I do believe he could end up being a good defender, especially with his attitude and work ethic, though.

**er1csh3n** · Sat Aug 6, 2011, 05:15 PM

He is a gymrat, besides defense is not like offensive where more talent is required, but involves more experience, timing, and hardwork. Derozan by no means is a good defender, but unlike Bargnani, DD is willing to work towards both sides of his game, not to mention he has an exceptional wingspan 6'9-6'10, 6'7 as a SG. and he performed above average in lateral quickness and sprints(not as fast as i expected) and has a 40' max vert, this guy could be a beast(not exaggerating) and terror for SGs if he can actually stay in front of them

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