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DeMar DeRozan's Potential

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  • #16
    Brandon wrote: View Post
    Everything in the first article in correct except the last paragraph.



    That's exactly right, point by point, right down the line. I would extend that to every other skill, such as shooting, passing, rebounding, defense et al. NBA players tend to improve slightly every year until they're around 30, and then they decline slightly every year thereafter. Bill James says MLB hitters don't learn how to hit at the major league level. They learn in the minors. NBA players do not learn elite skills in the league itself. They develop those skills as very young people and then carry them forward, refining them each step along the way. This means DDR is nothing more than an average player, and that's all he will ever be.
    Actually, a lot of the article isn't true. Lots of players improve their skills, and some a fair bit. The problem is he used elite players as examples, which is kind of ridiculous. Most of those players were elite players almost immediately and that's why all but Kobe were drafted in the top 5. There are very few people that believe DeRozan will become an elite player, but he could most definitely become an All-Star.

    The argument in the article is almost as bad as the writing.
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    • #17
      joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
      Disagree. Completely.

      You say "NBA players tend to improve slightly every year until they're around 30, and then they decline.."
      Demar Derozan is only 21 years old.
      According to your 'stat', he still has 9 years of improvement.

      And seeing as he is already an elite level athlete, with a very obvious above average scoring ability, I'm not sure how you come to this conclusion. He is an average man to man defender, but with his athletic abilities, he has a far more likely chance of utilizing that and refining said defensive deficiencies. His jump shot has already shown massive improvement, to the point where is already average-above average, and with his drive and determination, there is NOTHING stopping that jump shot from becoming DEADLY.

      If you watch clips of him in High School and College, you will see a very clear above average ability to take his man one on one. Thus, he has already developed said ability, and merely needs to "refine it" for the NBA level. Because he is only 21, and still learning his trade, he has not been able to apply said skill yet, but it will come with confidence and comfort on the court.
      Here we go with the euphemisms. "he's only 21", "he's an elite athlete" -- note, not basketball player, but athlete -- "there's nothing stopping...", "he was great in hs/college", "he only needs to refine...".

      So here's my response: Take a look at what Jordan did in the NBA at age 21, every player in the NBA is an elite athlete, there's nothing stopping a fish from being a bird except that a fish isn't a bird, everybody in the NBA was a hs/college all-american -- even the scrubs, he has had lots of playing time in the past 2 years and made little or no difference on the team.

      Tim W wrote: View Post
      Actually, a lot of the article isn't true. Lots of players improve their skills, and some a fair bit. The problem is he used elite players as examples, which is kind of ridiculous. Most of those players were elite players almost immediately and that's why all but Kobe were drafted in the top 5. There are very few people that believe DeRozan will become an elite player, but he could most definitely become an All-Star.
      I'm not sure I know what you mean by "elite" as opposed to "all-star". I like to use Sturgeon's Law -- 90% of everything is crap -- to narrow down the number of really useful players in the league at any given time to about 35. Those guys are adding a lot of wins to their teams, making all-star games, being named to all-NBA teams, and even contending for MVP awards. DeRozan has not been close to that upper 10% in his first two seasons, and performance doesn't vary much in the NBA from year to year, for anyone. This isn't baseball, where a guy might have a great year, and then two awful ones in a row (Aaron Hill), or might get into the hall-of-fame even though he was wildly inconsistent (Eddie Murray).
      I appreciated his use of all-time greats as evidence that players develop their important traits at a very young age. I'd go so far as to say their most important traits on the court are developed before they're born. It's those players who teams rely on to win games, playoff series, and championships.

      Take a look at this team: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/1982.html

      So let's say DeRozan eventually becomes as productive as Jamaal "Silk" Wilkes. He won't, but let's say he does. So effing what? Wilkes was along for the ride on that team. The prime movers were Magic and Kareem. Wilkes could have been replaced by most of the starting shooting guards in the NBA that year and the Lakers would still have taken it all. And Wilkes played in 3 all-star games. Silk retired after the next season and the Lakers replaced him with Byron Scott. They kept winning championships because they still had the prime movers. DeRozan is even more interchangeable than that.

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      • #18
        Brandon wrote: View Post
        Here we go with the euphemisms. "he's only 21", "he's an elite athlete" -- note, not basketball player, but athlete -- "there's nothing stopping...", "he was great in hs/college", "he only needs to refine...".

        So here's my response: Take a look at what Jordan did in the NBA at age 21, every player in the NBA is an elite athlete, there's nothing stopping a fish from being a bird except that a fish isn't a bird, everybody in the NBA was a hs/college all-american -- even the scrubs, he has had lots of playing time in the past 2 years and made little or no difference on the team.
        I didn't know we were comparing Demar to Jordan ... in that case .. you are right. He sucks.
        Great argument.




        When I say "Elite Athlete", I mean Top 5 in the League. I'm fully aware that NBA players are not your average Joe on the street level athletes.

        You said players need to show exceptional skill at a young age. I pointed out that Demar did.
        I did not say "Elite Level Basketball Player" because VERY FEW if any players, playing in the NBA at the age of 21 are "Elite". For his age group, he is certainly Exceptional, and Above Average.
        As for your comment about "making little to no difference on the team" ... well you must not have watched too many of the games last year.

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        • #19
          joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
          I didn't know we were comparing Demar to Jordan ... in that case .. you are right. He sucks.
          Great argument.




          When I say "Elite Athlete", I mean Top 5 in the League. I'm fully aware that NBA players are not your average Joe on the street level athletes.

          You said players need to show exceptional skill at a young age. I pointed out that Demar did.
          I did not say "Elite Level Basketball Player" because VERY FEW if any players, playing in the NBA at the age of 21 are "Elite". For his age group, he is certainly Exceptional, and Above Average.
          As for your comment about "making little to no difference on the team" ... well you must not have watched too many of the games last year.
          Here's their record, in case you forgot it: 22-60. They lost 60 games. They will lose 60 games for the forseeable future until they bring in a prime mover. That means for an indefinite period of time. DeRozan will not change that. If he was good enough to impose himself on the other team and destroy them every night, he would have done so by now. So it doesn't matter a hill of beans if he improves 1% per year for the next few years. He'll still be an interchangeable part on an extremely bad team. A team that will lose 60 games per year.

          By the way, DeRozan played 2851 minutes last year and contributed 3.3 win shares to a disastrous, cover-your-eyes awful team. A team that lost 60 games. He was given every conceivable opportunity to prove he could win games for the team, and the result? 60 losses.

          Concise list of DeRozan's accomplishments in Toronto:

          Toronto Raptors 2k11 record: 22-60
          SRS: -6.28 (27th of 30)
          Off Rtg: 105.9 (21st of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 112.7 (30th of 30)

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          • #20
            If Demar is 'average at best' because of being on a crappy team, and 'only' contributing 3.3; then Tyreke Evans must be god awful, with having only 1.6 WS for the Kings. Or John Wall with a 2.2.
            Or Kobe as a rookie with only a 1.8 WS must prove that he was destined to be nothing more than a scrub.

            I see Demar very much blossoming into this 'Prime Mover' you speak of.
            We clearly disagree. Which is fine.

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            • #21
              Brandon wrote: View Post
              Here we go with the euphemisms. "he's only 21", "he's an elite athlete" -- note, not basketball player, but athlete -- "there's nothing stopping...", "he was great in hs/college", "he only needs to refine...".

              So here's my response: Take a look at what Jordan did in the NBA at age 21, every player in the NBA is an elite athlete, there's nothing stopping a fish from being a bird except that a fish isn't a bird, everybody in the NBA was a hs/college all-american -- even the scrubs, he has had lots of playing time in the past 2 years and made little or no difference on the team.
              Jordan was possibly the best basketball player to ever live. Comparing DeRozan to Jordan is completely ridiculous.

              Brandon wrote: View Post
              I'm not sure I know what you mean by "elite" as opposed to "all-star". I like to use Sturgeon's Law -- 90% of everything is crap -- to narrow down the number of really useful players in the league at any given time to about 35. Those guys are adding a lot of wins to their teams, making all-star games, being named to all-NBA teams, and even contending for MVP awards. DeRozan has not been close to that upper 10% in his first two seasons, and performance doesn't vary much in the NBA from year to year, for anyone. This isn't baseball, where a guy might have a great year, and then two awful ones in a row (Aaron Hill), or might get into the hall-of-fame even though he was wildly inconsistent (Eddie Murray).
              I appreciated his use of all-time greats as evidence that players develop their important traits at a very young age. I'd go so far as to say their most important traits on the court are developed before they're born. It's those players who teams rely on to win games, playoff series, and championships.

              Take a look at this team: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/1982.html

              So let's say DeRozan eventually becomes as productive as Jamaal "Silk" Wilkes. He won't, but let's say he does. So effing what? Wilkes was along for the ride on that team. The prime movers were Magic and Kareem. Wilkes could have been replaced by most of the starting shooting guards in the NBA that year and the Lakers would still have taken it all. And Wilkes played in 3 all-star games. Silk retired after the next season and the Lakers replaced him with Byron Scott. They kept winning championships because they still had the prime movers. DeRozan is even more interchangeable than that.
              Loads of guys can make the All-Star team. A lot fewer make the All NBA team, especially the first and second team. Those are the elite player.

              And I really have no idea what your point is. No one around here is saying that DeRozan is the franchise player or even future franchise player. It doesn't mean he's worthless. Surround Magic and Kareem with a bunch of scrubs and they probably don't win a Championship. Even great players need a good supporting cast, and many around here feel that DeRozan has the potential to be a good third or possibly even second option on a Championship team.

              It seems to me that you're trying to discredit DeRozan by saying he's never going to be an MVP calibre player. Okay. The problem is no one is saying that.
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              • #22
                Brandon wrote: View Post
                Here's their record, in case you forgot it: 22-60. They lost 60 games. They will lose 60 games for the forseeable future until they bring in a prime mover. That means for an indefinite period of time. DeRozan will not change that. If he was good enough to impose himself on the other team and destroy them every night, he would have done so by now. So it doesn't matter a hill of beans if he improves 1% per year for the next few years. He'll still be an interchangeable part on an extremely bad team. A team that will lose 60 games per year.

                By the way, DeRozan played 2851 minutes last year and contributed 3.3 win shares to a disastrous, cover-your-eyes awful team. A team that lost 60 games. He was given every conceivable opportunity to prove he could win games for the team, and the result? 60 losses.

                Concise list of DeRozan's accomplishments in Toronto:

                Toronto Raptors 2k11 record: 22-60
                SRS: -6.28 (27th of 30)
                Off Rtg: 105.9 (21st of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 112.7 (30th of 30)



                sorry i cant take a dude that uses info from a video game seriously.

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                • #23
                  joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                  If Demar is 'average at best' because of being on a crappy team, and 'only' contributing 3.3; then Tyreke Evans must be god awful, with having only 1.6 WS for the Kings. Or John Wall with a 2.2.
                  Or Kobe as a rookie with only a 1.8 WS must prove that he was destined to be nothing more than a scrub.

                  I see Demar very much blossoming into this 'Prime Mover' you speak of.
                  We clearly disagree. Which is fine.
                  Me too

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                  • #24
                    Tim W. wrote: View Post
                    Jordan was possibly the best basketball player to ever live. Comparing DeRozan to Jordan is completely ridiculous.



                    Loads of guys can make the All-Star team. A lot fewer make the All NBA team, especially the first and second team. Those are the elite player.

                    And I really have no idea what your point is. No one around here is saying that DeRozan is the franchise player or even future franchise player. It doesn't mean he's worthless. Surround Magic and Kareem with a bunch of scrubs and they probably don't win a Championship. Even great players need a good supporting cast, and many around here feel that DeRozan has the potential to be a good third or possibly even second option on a Championship team.

                    It seems to me that you're trying to discredit DeRozan by saying he's never going to be an MVP calibre player. Okay. The problem is no one is saying that.
                    Look at the posts surrounding yours, at the people saying he's going to be one of the top 35 players in the league (which I've previously stated is a 'prime mover'). Are you still going to say no one is overrating the guy?

                    I don't think DeRozan is worthless. Jamaal Wilkes wasn't worthless. He just wasn't any better than most of the other heavy-minutes swingmen in the league. He was nothing to get excited about. It's not very hard to assemble a good supporting cast around a couple of superstars. It's the superstars that are hard to get.

                    DeRozan is a heavy volume shooter with no long range shot. He has a bad handle, can't stop a sneeze, and needs his teammates to get him good shots. I think the Raptors should trade him, while he's still got "potential" in some people's eyes, for a good pick in the upcoming draft. Trade him before he proves to everyone he's nothing special.

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                    • #25
                      Brandon wrote: View Post
                      I think the Raptors should trade him, while he's still got "potential" in some people's eyes, for a good pick in the upcoming draft. Trade him before he proves to everyone he's nothing special.
                      Who's going to want to trade a High Pick in one of the Best Drafts EVER, for a "Heavy Volume Shooter with no long range shot, bad handle and can't stop a sneeze"? Because I'm sure ALL of the talent evaluators in the NBA agree with you. You know.. the guys who actually get paid, and have experience judging players like Demar. I mean, you make such inpenetrable arguments.

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                      • #26
                        At this point, nobody in the raps is "untouchable", trade who ever needs to be traded try n sign whoever we need to sign and go from there. Demar has potential we all know that but he is not the face of the raps NO ONE IS. its reality folks! live with it, NBA is also a buisness and when it comes to it, anything can happen. On the other hand, trading demar now just so we can be in a position in drafting high next draft is tempting but it will only take the raps back to square one in hoping that whoever it is they drafted would become the player they are hoping for, there are really good players in next years draft, but thats it.

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                        • #27
                          Brandon wrote: View Post
                          Look at the posts surrounding yours, at the people saying he's going to be one of the top 35 players in the league (which I've previously stated is a 'prime mover'). Are you still going to say no one is overrating the guy?

                          I don't think DeRozan is worthless. Jamaal Wilkes wasn't worthless. He just wasn't any better than most of the other heavy-minutes swingmen in the league. He was nothing to get excited about. It's not very hard to assemble a good supporting cast around a couple of superstars. It's the superstars that are hard to get.

                          DeRozan is a heavy volume shooter with no long range shot. He has a bad handle, can't stop a sneeze, and needs his teammates to get him good shots. I think the Raptors should trade him, while he's still got "potential" in some people's eyes, for a good pick in the upcoming draft. Trade him before he proves to everyone he's nothing special.
                          Top 35 is a borderline All-Star, not an elite player. DeRozan definitely has the potential for that level.

                          The flaw in your argument is that you believe players don't improve their skills much once they reach the NBA, which is simply not true. Bruce Bowen went from a player who couldn't shoot from ten feet to leading the league in 3 point shooting. Andrew Bynum went from a raw offensive player to a very good post player (when healthy). It's certainly not the norm, but DeRozan's work ethic is not the norm. And it's his work ethic that makes many people he'll make big improvements.

                          Now, I don't think DeRozan is untouchable and if the right deal comes along, I don't think the Raptors would hesitate to pull the trigger if they can improve their team, and rightly so, but your contention that they should trade him for "good pick in the upcoming draft" isn't entirely realistic. How high a pick? Because if it's not a top 10 pick then there's really no point. And what team is going to give up a pick in a draft that is widely believed to be one of the best drafts in the last 20 years?
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                          • #28
                            Tim W. wrote: View Post
                            Top 35 is a borderline All-Star, not an elite player. DeRozan definitely has the potential for that level.

                            The flaw in your argument is that you believe players don't improve their skills much once they reach the NBA, which is simply not true. Bruce Bowen went from a player who couldn't shoot from ten feet to leading the league in 3 point shooting. Andrew Bynum went from a raw offensive player to a very good post player (when healthy). It's certainly not the norm, but DeRozan's work ethic is not the norm. And it's his work ethic that makes many people he'll make big improvements.

                            Now, I don't think DeRozan is untouchable and if the right deal comes along, I don't think the Raptors would hesitate to pull the trigger if they can improve their team, and rightly so, but your contention that they should trade him for "good pick in the upcoming draft" isn't entirely realistic. How high a pick? Because if it's not a top 10 pick then there's really no point. And what team is going to give up a pick in a draft that is widely believed to be one of the best drafts in the last 20 years?
                            Any pick in next year's draft is good enough for me.

                            Well, I think we're just going around in circles here. I think the top 35 players are adding anywhere from 10-20 wins to their teams' totals, and no, I don't see DeRozan doing that.

                            Bruce Bowen entered the league as an athletic defensive swingman with no ball skills at all. He played his entire career as that, and retired as that. He 'added' a 3-point shot that he could make if A) He was shooting from a very specific spot, B) He was wide open, C) He was standing perfectly still. If Bowen had the ball in his hands dribbling, something was very wrong. In other words, he relied on his much superior teammates to hide his tremendous weaknesses. If Bruce Bowen entered the league as he was, and then miraculously became a clone of Paul Pierce, Dominique Wilkins, or Scottie Pippen, then I think you'd have a point about DeRozan.

                            Drew Bynum played virtually no minutes in his first season as an 18-year-old, and then was no worse than average in his soph year playing regular rotation minutes. It was year 3 that he started playing all-star, top 35 ball -- age 20, after only ~2k minutes. DDR has played ~4500 minutes and is a year older than Bynum was. No matter who you look at, no matter what example you use, the evidence says it just doesn't take these guys long to show what they can do. And once they show it, injuries and age notwithstanding, it doesn't change.

                            Think about your argument for a minute. All DeRozan needs to do is just work really, really hard, and he can turn himself into a top 35 player. He can go from having little or no effect on games after 2 full seasons as a starter to being a significant contributor on a winning team. Just with hard work. He can increase his salary 5-fold in the process, no doubt. It's too bad the other 300 scrubs in the NBA haven't figured this out. All they have to do to become highly paid all-stars is work really, really hard.

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                            • #29
                              joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
                              When I say "Elite Athlete", I mean Top 5 in the League. I'm fully aware that NBA players are not your average Joe on the street level athletes.

                              You said players need to show exceptional skill at a young age. I pointed out that Demar did.
                              I did not say "Elite Level Basketball Player" because VERY FEW if any players, playing in the NBA at the age of 21 are "Elite". For his age group, he is certainly Exceptional, and Above Average.
                              As for your comment about "making little to no difference on the team" ... well you must not have watched too many of the games last year.
                              Top 5 in the league? He's barely top 5 in his own draft class.
                              He's behind Griffin (obviously), Jonny Flynn, Beaubois, and Chase Budinger in nearly every measurement at the 2009 combine.

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                              • #30
                                Brandon wrote: View Post
                                Any pick in next year's draft is good enough for me.

                                Well, I think we're just going around in circles here. I think the top 35 players are adding anywhere from 10-20 wins to their teams' totals, and no, I don't see DeRozan doing that.

                                Bruce Bowen entered the league as an athletic defensive swingman with no ball skills at all. He played his entire career as that, and retired as that. He 'added' a 3-point shot that he could make if A) He was shooting from a very specific spot, B) He was wide open, C) He was standing perfectly still. If Bowen had the ball in his hands dribbling, something was very wrong. In other words, he relied on his much superior teammates to hide his tremendous weaknesses. If Bruce Bowen entered the league as he was, and then miraculously became a clone of Paul Pierce, Dominique Wilkins, or Scottie Pippen, then I think you'd have a point about DeRozan.

                                Drew Bynum played virtually no minutes in his first season as an 18-year-old, and then was no worse than average in his soph year playing regular rotation minutes. It was year 3 that he started playing all-star, top 35 ball -- age 20, after only ~2k minutes. DDR has played ~4500 minutes and is a year older than Bynum was. No matter who you look at, no matter what example you use, the evidence says it just doesn't take these guys long to show what they can do. And once they show it, injuries and age notwithstanding, it doesn't change.

                                Think about your argument for a minute. All DeRozan needs to do is just work really, really hard, and he can turn himself into a top 35 player. He can go from having little or no effect on games after 2 full seasons as a starter to being a significant contributor on a winning team. Just with hard work. He can increase his salary 5-fold in the process, no doubt. It's too bad the other 300 scrubs in the NBA haven't figured this out. All they have to do to become highly paid all-stars is work really, really hard.
                                You think just about any pick in next year's draft is going to be better than DeRozan will? Really?

                                And Bruce Bowen didn't become Paul Pierce by adding a 3 point shot, but he became a valuable contributor, something Pat Riley didn't think he'd become when he left the Heat.

                                My problem with your argument is that you're trying to paint DeRozan as something he is not. You're talking as if he's got absolutely no skills outside of his athletic ability and that's simply not true at all. He's got a very good medium range shot, has shown a good ability to move without the ball, has a good touch around the basket and a knack for getting to the line. This isn't Joe Alexander, here. He's actually fairly efficient offensively for a SG. And while he's got below average ball handling skills, he's not horrible. And that's something he can definitely improve on with practice.

                                He's never going to be Kobe, but he doesn't need to be. He doesn't need to be Paul Pierce. Richard Hamilton made a very nice career for himself without much of an ability to create for himself. Hell, Reggie Miller has a Hall of Fame career and he couldn't create a shot.
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