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Thread: DeMar DeRozan's Potential

  1. #21
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    Quote Brandon wrote: View Post
    Here we go with the euphemisms. "he's only 21", "he's an elite athlete" -- note, not basketball player, but athlete -- "there's nothing stopping...", "he was great in hs/college", "he only needs to refine...".

    So here's my response: Take a look at what Jordan did in the NBA at age 21, every player in the NBA is an elite athlete, there's nothing stopping a fish from being a bird except that a fish isn't a bird, everybody in the NBA was a hs/college all-american -- even the scrubs, he has had lots of playing time in the past 2 years and made little or no difference on the team.
    Jordan was possibly the best basketball player to ever live. Comparing DeRozan to Jordan is completely ridiculous.

    Quote Brandon wrote: View Post
    I'm not sure I know what you mean by "elite" as opposed to "all-star". I like to use Sturgeon's Law -- 90% of everything is crap -- to narrow down the number of really useful players in the league at any given time to about 35. Those guys are adding a lot of wins to their teams, making all-star games, being named to all-NBA teams, and even contending for MVP awards. DeRozan has not been close to that upper 10% in his first two seasons, and performance doesn't vary much in the NBA from year to year, for anyone. This isn't baseball, where a guy might have a great year, and then two awful ones in a row (Aaron Hill), or might get into the hall-of-fame even though he was wildly inconsistent (Eddie Murray).
    I appreciated his use of all-time greats as evidence that players develop their important traits at a very young age. I'd go so far as to say their most important traits on the court are developed before they're born. It's those players who teams rely on to win games, playoff series, and championships.

    Take a look at this team: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/1982.html

    So let's say DeRozan eventually becomes as productive as Jamaal "Silk" Wilkes. He won't, but let's say he does. So effing what? Wilkes was along for the ride on that team. The prime movers were Magic and Kareem. Wilkes could have been replaced by most of the starting shooting guards in the NBA that year and the Lakers would still have taken it all. And Wilkes played in 3 all-star games. Silk retired after the next season and the Lakers replaced him with Byron Scott. They kept winning championships because they still had the prime movers. DeRozan is even more interchangeable than that.
    Loads of guys can make the All-Star team. A lot fewer make the All NBA team, especially the first and second team. Those are the elite player.

    And I really have no idea what your point is. No one around here is saying that DeRozan is the franchise player or even future franchise player. It doesn't mean he's worthless. Surround Magic and Kareem with a bunch of scrubs and they probably don't win a Championship. Even great players need a good supporting cast, and many around here feel that DeRozan has the potential to be a good third or possibly even second option on a Championship team.

    It seems to me that you're trying to discredit DeRozan by saying he's never going to be an MVP calibre player. Okay. The problem is no one is saying that.
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  2. #22
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    Quote Brandon wrote: View Post
    Here's their record, in case you forgot it: 22-60. They lost 60 games. They will lose 60 games for the forseeable future until they bring in a prime mover. That means for an indefinite period of time. DeRozan will not change that. If he was good enough to impose himself on the other team and destroy them every night, he would have done so by now. So it doesn't matter a hill of beans if he improves 1% per year for the next few years. He'll still be an interchangeable part on an extremely bad team. A team that will lose 60 games per year.

    By the way, DeRozan played 2851 minutes last year and contributed 3.3 win shares to a disastrous, cover-your-eyes awful team. A team that lost 60 games. He was given every conceivable opportunity to prove he could win games for the team, and the result? 60 losses.

    Concise list of DeRozan's accomplishments in Toronto:

    Toronto Raptors 2k11 record: 22-60
    SRS: -6.28 (27th of 30)
    Off Rtg: 105.9 (21st of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 112.7 (30th of 30)



    sorry i cant take a dude that uses info from a video game seriously.

  3. #23
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    If Demar is 'average at best' because of being on a crappy team, and 'only' contributing 3.3; then Tyreke Evans must be god awful, with having only 1.6 WS for the Kings. Or John Wall with a 2.2.
    Or Kobe as a rookie with only a 1.8 WS must prove that he was destined to be nothing more than a scrub.

    I see Demar very much blossoming into this 'Prime Mover' you speak of.
    We clearly disagree. Which is fine.
    Me too

  4. #24
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    Jordan was possibly the best basketball player to ever live. Comparing DeRozan to Jordan is completely ridiculous.



    Loads of guys can make the All-Star team. A lot fewer make the All NBA team, especially the first and second team. Those are the elite player.

    And I really have no idea what your point is. No one around here is saying that DeRozan is the franchise player or even future franchise player. It doesn't mean he's worthless. Surround Magic and Kareem with a bunch of scrubs and they probably don't win a Championship. Even great players need a good supporting cast, and many around here feel that DeRozan has the potential to be a good third or possibly even second option on a Championship team.

    It seems to me that you're trying to discredit DeRozan by saying he's never going to be an MVP calibre player. Okay. The problem is no one is saying that.
    Look at the posts surrounding yours, at the people saying he's going to be one of the top 35 players in the league (which I've previously stated is a 'prime mover'). Are you still going to say no one is overrating the guy?

    I don't think DeRozan is worthless. Jamaal Wilkes wasn't worthless. He just wasn't any better than most of the other heavy-minutes swingmen in the league. He was nothing to get excited about. It's not very hard to assemble a good supporting cast around a couple of superstars. It's the superstars that are hard to get.

    DeRozan is a heavy volume shooter with no long range shot. He has a bad handle, can't stop a sneeze, and needs his teammates to get him good shots. I think the Raptors should trade him, while he's still got "potential" in some people's eyes, for a good pick in the upcoming draft. Trade him before he proves to everyone he's nothing special.

  5. #25
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    Quote Brandon wrote: View Post
    I think the Raptors should trade him, while he's still got "potential" in some people's eyes, for a good pick in the upcoming draft. Trade him before he proves to everyone he's nothing special.
    Who's going to want to trade a High Pick in one of the Best Drafts EVER, for a "Heavy Volume Shooter with no long range shot, bad handle and can't stop a sneeze"? Because I'm sure ALL of the talent evaluators in the NBA agree with you. You know.. the guys who actually get paid, and have experience judging players like Demar. I mean, you make such inpenetrable arguments.
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  6. #26
    Raptors Republic Rookie G-locity's Avatar
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    At this point, nobody in the raps is "untouchable", trade who ever needs to be traded try n sign whoever we need to sign and go from there. Demar has potential we all know that but he is not the face of the raps NO ONE IS. its reality folks! live with it, NBA is also a buisness and when it comes to it, anything can happen. On the other hand, trading demar now just so we can be in a position in drafting high next draft is tempting but it will only take the raps back to square one in hoping that whoever it is they drafted would become the player they are hoping for, there are really good players in next years draft, but thats it.

  7. #27
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    Quote Brandon wrote: View Post
    Look at the posts surrounding yours, at the people saying he's going to be one of the top 35 players in the league (which I've previously stated is a 'prime mover'). Are you still going to say no one is overrating the guy?

    I don't think DeRozan is worthless. Jamaal Wilkes wasn't worthless. He just wasn't any better than most of the other heavy-minutes swingmen in the league. He was nothing to get excited about. It's not very hard to assemble a good supporting cast around a couple of superstars. It's the superstars that are hard to get.

    DeRozan is a heavy volume shooter with no long range shot. He has a bad handle, can't stop a sneeze, and needs his teammates to get him good shots. I think the Raptors should trade him, while he's still got "potential" in some people's eyes, for a good pick in the upcoming draft. Trade him before he proves to everyone he's nothing special.
    Top 35 is a borderline All-Star, not an elite player. DeRozan definitely has the potential for that level.

    The flaw in your argument is that you believe players don't improve their skills much once they reach the NBA, which is simply not true. Bruce Bowen went from a player who couldn't shoot from ten feet to leading the league in 3 point shooting. Andrew Bynum went from a raw offensive player to a very good post player (when healthy). It's certainly not the norm, but DeRozan's work ethic is not the norm. And it's his work ethic that makes many people he'll make big improvements.

    Now, I don't think DeRozan is untouchable and if the right deal comes along, I don't think the Raptors would hesitate to pull the trigger if they can improve their team, and rightly so, but your contention that they should trade him for "good pick in the upcoming draft" isn't entirely realistic. How high a pick? Because if it's not a top 10 pick then there's really no point. And what team is going to give up a pick in a draft that is widely believed to be one of the best drafts in the last 20 years?
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  8. #28
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    Top 35 is a borderline All-Star, not an elite player. DeRozan definitely has the potential for that level.

    The flaw in your argument is that you believe players don't improve their skills much once they reach the NBA, which is simply not true. Bruce Bowen went from a player who couldn't shoot from ten feet to leading the league in 3 point shooting. Andrew Bynum went from a raw offensive player to a very good post player (when healthy). It's certainly not the norm, but DeRozan's work ethic is not the norm. And it's his work ethic that makes many people he'll make big improvements.

    Now, I don't think DeRozan is untouchable and if the right deal comes along, I don't think the Raptors would hesitate to pull the trigger if they can improve their team, and rightly so, but your contention that they should trade him for "good pick in the upcoming draft" isn't entirely realistic. How high a pick? Because if it's not a top 10 pick then there's really no point. And what team is going to give up a pick in a draft that is widely believed to be one of the best drafts in the last 20 years?
    Any pick in next year's draft is good enough for me.

    Well, I think we're just going around in circles here. I think the top 35 players are adding anywhere from 10-20 wins to their teams' totals, and no, I don't see DeRozan doing that.

    Bruce Bowen entered the league as an athletic defensive swingman with no ball skills at all. He played his entire career as that, and retired as that. He 'added' a 3-point shot that he could make if A) He was shooting from a very specific spot, B) He was wide open, C) He was standing perfectly still. If Bowen had the ball in his hands dribbling, something was very wrong. In other words, he relied on his much superior teammates to hide his tremendous weaknesses. If Bruce Bowen entered the league as he was, and then miraculously became a clone of Paul Pierce, Dominique Wilkins, or Scottie Pippen, then I think you'd have a point about DeRozan.

    Drew Bynum played virtually no minutes in his first season as an 18-year-old, and then was no worse than average in his soph year playing regular rotation minutes. It was year 3 that he started playing all-star, top 35 ball -- age 20, after only ~2k minutes. DDR has played ~4500 minutes and is a year older than Bynum was. No matter who you look at, no matter what example you use, the evidence says it just doesn't take these guys long to show what they can do. And once they show it, injuries and age notwithstanding, it doesn't change.

    Think about your argument for a minute. All DeRozan needs to do is just work really, really hard, and he can turn himself into a top 35 player. He can go from having little or no effect on games after 2 full seasons as a starter to being a significant contributor on a winning team. Just with hard work. He can increase his salary 5-fold in the process, no doubt. It's too bad the other 300 scrubs in the NBA haven't figured this out. All they have to do to become highly paid all-stars is work really, really hard.

  9. #29
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    When I say "Elite Athlete", I mean Top 5 in the League. I'm fully aware that NBA players are not your average Joe on the street level athletes.

    You said players need to show exceptional skill at a young age. I pointed out that Demar did.
    I did not say "Elite Level Basketball Player" because VERY FEW if any players, playing in the NBA at the age of 21 are "Elite". For his age group, he is certainly Exceptional, and Above Average.
    As for your comment about "making little to no difference on the team" ... well you must not have watched too many of the games last year.
    Top 5 in the league? He's barely top 5 in his own draft class.
    He's behind Griffin (obviously), Jonny Flynn, Beaubois, and Chase Budinger in nearly every measurement at the 2009 combine.

  10. #30
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    Quote Brandon wrote: View Post
    Any pick in next year's draft is good enough for me.

    Well, I think we're just going around in circles here. I think the top 35 players are adding anywhere from 10-20 wins to their teams' totals, and no, I don't see DeRozan doing that.

    Bruce Bowen entered the league as an athletic defensive swingman with no ball skills at all. He played his entire career as that, and retired as that. He 'added' a 3-point shot that he could make if A) He was shooting from a very specific spot, B) He was wide open, C) He was standing perfectly still. If Bowen had the ball in his hands dribbling, something was very wrong. In other words, he relied on his much superior teammates to hide his tremendous weaknesses. If Bruce Bowen entered the league as he was, and then miraculously became a clone of Paul Pierce, Dominique Wilkins, or Scottie Pippen, then I think you'd have a point about DeRozan.

    Drew Bynum played virtually no minutes in his first season as an 18-year-old, and then was no worse than average in his soph year playing regular rotation minutes. It was year 3 that he started playing all-star, top 35 ball -- age 20, after only ~2k minutes. DDR has played ~4500 minutes and is a year older than Bynum was. No matter who you look at, no matter what example you use, the evidence says it just doesn't take these guys long to show what they can do. And once they show it, injuries and age notwithstanding, it doesn't change.

    Think about your argument for a minute. All DeRozan needs to do is just work really, really hard, and he can turn himself into a top 35 player. He can go from having little or no effect on games after 2 full seasons as a starter to being a significant contributor on a winning team. Just with hard work. He can increase his salary 5-fold in the process, no doubt. It's too bad the other 300 scrubs in the NBA haven't figured this out. All they have to do to become highly paid all-stars is work really, really hard.
    You think just about any pick in next year's draft is going to be better than DeRozan will? Really?

    And Bruce Bowen didn't become Paul Pierce by adding a 3 point shot, but he became a valuable contributor, something Pat Riley didn't think he'd become when he left the Heat.

    My problem with your argument is that you're trying to paint DeRozan as something he is not. You're talking as if he's got absolutely no skills outside of his athletic ability and that's simply not true at all. He's got a very good medium range shot, has shown a good ability to move without the ball, has a good touch around the basket and a knack for getting to the line. This isn't Joe Alexander, here. He's actually fairly efficient offensively for a SG. And while he's got below average ball handling skills, he's not horrible. And that's something he can definitely improve on with practice.

    He's never going to be Kobe, but he doesn't need to be. He doesn't need to be Paul Pierce. Richard Hamilton made a very nice career for himself without much of an ability to create for himself. Hell, Reggie Miller has a Hall of Fame career and he couldn't create a shot.
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  11. #31
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    Quote Quixotic wrote: View Post
    Maybe you should actually read the post (and the ones that preceded it) and try again.
    He read the bolded part. Geez, what do you want???
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    He read the bolded part. Geez, what do you want???
    Blah, I had to delete my post.

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    Quote Brandon wrote: View Post
    Any pick in next year's draft is good enough for me.
    I think DeRozan is promising, but certainly with lots of improvement needed, but I'm glad you're not GM. Any of next year's picks for DeRozan? Dallas/LA/Miami/SA would like to take you up on that offer.

  14. #34
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    I just read the whole conversation and I couldn't believe all the sh*t Brandon said. Just wanted to say that, so good night everybody!

  15. #35
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    Quote charlesnba23 wrote: View Post
    I just read the whole conversation and I couldn't believe all the sh*t Brandon said. Just wanted to say that, so good night everybody!
    ya he has pretty pointless arguments.

  16. #36
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    Quote NoPropsneeded wrote: View Post
    ya he has pretty pointless arguments.
    Seriously is this Brandon guy even a Raptors fan....I mean he's basically saying " let's make it seem like the only guy on our team who isn't a scrub and likes Toronto is actually someone who will never lead us to the playoffs because he can't iso.....so let's trade a 2nd year player who averages 18 points for some pick, like bro he might not be Kobe or MJ, but he plays some solid bball, but my point is STFU.

  17. #37
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    Quote er1csh3n wrote: View Post
    Seriously is this Brandon guy even a Raptors fan....I mean he's basically saying " let's make it seem like the only guy on our team who isn't a scrub and likes Toronto is actually someone who will never lead us to the playoffs because he can't iso.....so let's trade a 2nd year player who averages 18 points for some pick, like bro he might not be Kobe or MJ, but he plays some solid bball, but my point is STFU.
    Wow, good argument.

  18. #38
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    Quote Brandon wrote: View Post
    Wow, good argument.
    Thanks bro, means a lot

  19. #39
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    He's never going to be Kobe, but he doesn't need to be. He doesn't need to be Paul Pierce. Richard Hamilton made a very nice career for himself without much of an ability to create for himself. Hell, Reggie Miller has a Hall of Fame career and he couldn't create a shot.
    He does need to be as good as those guys to really matter on the court. Basketball games aren't won by rotation guys having nice careers. They are won by superstars. They are won by the upper 10% of the league's players.

    Here's my argument, put as simply as I can: If a team doesn't have at least one of those guys, they might as well not have anything. They might as well run 12 drunken fans out there every night. A team of 12 drunken fans can lose 60 games. Demar DeRozan is not one of those upper 10% guys, and he never will be. The skills necessary to be that thing are genetic and happen pre-birth. Given that you, Tim, have already conceded that he will not be that great, and that he will do no better than having a "nice career", they might as well trade him and try to get lucky in the draft. Maybe a low first round pick will turn into a player like Rondo. It happens. It is a lot easier to bring in players who will have nice careers than it is to bring in a guy who can singlehandedly take a team from a 60-loss nightmare into a high playoff seed. Mark Cuban understands this. He's said that, when Dirk retires, Cuban will gut the team and lose as many games as he can until he drafts another superstar he can build around.

    San Antonio 1988-89 record: 21-61. David Robinson joins the team.
    San Antonio 1989-90 record: 56-26. Goes 2 rounds in the playoffs.

    Lakers 1978-79 record: 47-35. Draft Magic Johnson.
    Lakers 1979-80 record: 60-22. Capture championship.

    Celtics 1978-79 record: 29-53. Draft Larry Bird.
    Celtics 1979-80 record: 61-21. Lost NBA Eastern Conference Finals (4-1).

    Celtics 2006-07 record: 24-58. Trade most of team for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.
    Celtics 2007-08 record: 66-16. Capture championship.

    Raptors 2008-09 record: 33-49. Draft Demar DeRozan.
    Raptors 2009-10 record: 40-42. Missed playoffs.
    Raptors 2010-11 record: 22-60. Lost 60 games.

    To everybody reading this who thinks DeRozan, or maybe another Raptors player, can develop into a superstar: That is what your enemy, the Raptors/MLSE front office, wants you to think. If you harbour such ill-conceived ideas, they don't have to work as hard to gain your interest and loyalty. If completely uncritical acceptance of the team's marketing b.s., is what it means to be a 'real fan', count me out. It's not actually DeRozan's fault he is being so overrated, it's the front office, for pushing the idea on the local market. I am in fact not criticizing DeRozan personally at all, only explaining that it's unfair to expect so much of a middling, back-of-the-rotation talent.

  20. #40
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    I saw what you did there:

    Players only improve a bit each year until they're 30 -> players become what they are in the minors (it applies to baseball so it obviously applies to basketball as well) -> players become what they are pre-birth.

    Hmm...


    You forgot something important while typing out a bunch of irrelevant stats. Paul Pierce led the Celtics to a 24-58 record. They should probably have traded him as 12 drunken fans could probably pull that off as well.

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