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Thread: DeMar DeRozan's Potential

  1. #41
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Quixotic wrote: View Post
    I saw what you did there:

    Players only improve a bit each year until they're 30 -> players become what they are in the minors (it applies to baseball so it obviously applies to basketball as well) -> players become what they are pre-birth.

    Hmm...
    Precisely. Being an NBA Champion is like being Gay. You're just born that way.



    So I guess at this rate, it's safe to say Lebron will NEVER win one, if he hasn't somehow willed his team to one by now.. right? (He couldn't even get his team into the playoffs as a Rookie. What an Average Loser.)

    Or Karl Malone wasn't all that good because he clearly couldn't just make a Championship appear due to his greatness.

    Or Kevin Garnett not being able to do it in Minni, must surely prove that he is actually inferior and simply Average, until combined with "Prime Movers" Paul Pierce and Ray Allen.

    Or Rajon Rondo having a pretty below average first year, only to become a bigger Superstar than "the Big 3". Fascinating.

    I could poke holes in this all day.
    Last edited by Joey; Mon Aug 1st, 2011 at 03:23 PM.
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  2. #42
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    Brandon,

    I understand your argument, and agree in principle. Without an elite player, your team has almost no chance of being a true contender. Unfortunately that seems to be the only part we agree on.

    Right now, in my opinion, there isn't one player on the team that I foresee becoming an elite talent. Does that mean they should gut the team and trade them all for draft picks in order to better the chance of finding an elite talent? No. That's a little ridiculous. Yes, a contender needs a superstar, but it also needs other pieces, too. Dirk didn't win until he had the right talent around him. LeBron still hasn't won.

    Tim Duncan doesn't win multiple Championships without Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. And those guys aren't a dime a dozen.

    And what you seem to be forgetting is that Larry Bird joined a team that already had a lot of talent on it. Same with Magic and Duncan. And you're conveniently forgetting all the great players that joined bad teams and didn't make much of an impact because he didn't have decent surrounding talent. What's the point of drafting an elite player if you may not be able to keep him because there simply isn't enough talent on the team?

    What makes the most sense to me is to collect pieces and keep the ones that you can see winning a Championship with. To me, that means guys like Ed Davis and Amir Johnson. I'm not entirely convinced DeRozan is one but i'm also not convinced he isn't. Either way, you don't simply get rid of him for a draft pick. That's not making very good use of your assets. Now if the Raptors have the chance to draft a franchise player next year and have to give up DeRozan to do it, then you probably do it, especially if that's the only way to get one. but simply trading him for a draft pick when you have absolutely no idea where that pick might be is a horrible move. Especially when DeRozan's value will only increase over the next couplle of years.

    Now if the Raptors draft an elite player next year and have to make some changes in order to compliment him well, then you obviously do that. But trading guys simply BECAUSE they aren't elite talent is not a good strategy.
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  3. #43
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    Quote Brandon wrote: View Post
    To everybody reading this who thinks DeRozan, or maybe another Raptors player, can develop into a superstar: That is what your enemy, the Raptors/MLSE front office, wants you to think. If you harbour such ill-conceived ideas, they don't have to work as hard to gain your interest and loyalty. If completely uncritical acceptance of the team's marketing b.s., is what it means to be a 'real fan', count me out. It's not actually DeRozan's fault he is being so overrated, it's the front office, for pushing the idea on the local market. I am in fact not criticizing DeRozan personally at all, only explaining that it's unfair to expect so much of a middling, back-of-the-rotation talent.
    Derozan is overrated? WHAT!!!!!! I have lived all my life as a Raps fan and lived throughout the US and Toronto, when I ask people about the Raptors, they think I'm talking about the dinosaurs, we're the team that overpays scrubs and players in retirement,they think derozan is a ghetto black guy, the only person they know is Bargnani, because B. Lopez and him rebound like it's covered with used condoms. Derozan is underrated to most of the basketball world, he IS a player capable of being a legit option on a championship team, if stats mean that much to you, find me another swingman that averaged 18 points while shooting BELOW 10% from downtown.....your arguments are so pessimistic, it's like talking to a suicidal crack user

  4. #44
    Raptors Republic Veteran NoPropsneeded's Avatar
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    Quote Brandon wrote: View Post
    Wow, good argument.
    like yours are any better...

  5. #45
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    Do we consider Kevin Durant to be elite level talent?

    Seattle 2006-2007 record: 33-48. Move and draft Kevin Durant
    Thunder 2007-2008 record: 20-62
    Thunder 2008-2009 record: 23-59

    Just saying ...


    On another note, a few of the DeRozan defenders begin to sound a lot like Bargnani fanatics. I feel a sticky 'Everything DeRozan' thread coming soon...

  6. #46
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    Except we actually have a reason to actually like him so....

  7. #47
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    In order to really discuss Derozan's potential I found the best way is to compare him with other top tier wings in the league. I don't necessarily mean Wade, Kobe or Jordan because those are very special players. But I think it makes sense to start looking at some all-star talented guys and compare their first two season's with Derozan's and to see how far Derozan is from someone who would be considered a top talented player, and not just some scrub you could throw away for any draft pick.

    So here are stats I pulled from basketball-reference.com:

    Code:
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    09/10  Demar Derozan    20    21.4    8.6   2.9   49.8  76.3   0.7    0.8    0.6    12.5   2.3   110   115   18.1
    10/11  Demar Derozan    21    34.5    17.2  3.8   46.7  81.3   1.8    1.8    1.0    14.4   3.3   106   114   23.1
     
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    96/97  Ray Allen        21    30.9    13.4  4.0   43.0  82.3   2.6    1.8    0.9    14.6   4.9   109   110   21.4
    97/98  Ray Allen        22    40.1    19.5  4.9   42.8  87.5   4.3    3.2    1.4    16.2   7.0   106   108   24.3
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    05/06  Monta Ellis      20    18.1    6.8   2.1   41.5  71.2   1.6    1.2    0.7    11.1   0.5   95    107   20.2
    06/07  Monta Ellis      21    34.3    16.5  3.2   47.5  76.3   4.1    2.9    1.7    15.0   4.0   104   109   22.4
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    06/07  Rudy Gay         20    27.0    10.8  4.5   42.2  72.7   1.3    1.8    0.9    12.4   0.5   96    111   21.3
    07/08  Rudy Gay         21    37.0    20.1  6.2   46.1  78.5   2.0    2.3    1.4    17.4   5.0   106   110   25.0
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    05/06  Danny Granger    22    22.6    7.5   4.9   46.2  77.7   1.2    1.0    0.7    14.7   5.1   110   101   16.4
    06/07  Danny Granger    23    34.0    13.9  4.6   45.9  80.3   1.4    1.6    0.8    13.9   6.5   111   107   18.2
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    99/00  Rich. Hamilton   21    19.3    9.0   1.8   42.0  77.4   1.5    1.2    0.4    11.6   0.7   98    111   24.2
    00/01  Rich. Hamilton   22    32.3    18.1  3.1   43.8  86.8   2.9    2.6    1.0    15.7   2.4   100   111   28.1
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    04/05  Andre Iguodala   21    32.8    9.0   5.7   49.3  74.3   3.0    1.7    1.7    13.5   6.6   110   102   12.8
    05/06  Andre Iguodala   22    37.6    12.3  5.9   50.0  75.4   3.1    1.9    1.6    14.8   7.5   115   108   14.7
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    01/02  Rich. Jefferson  21    24.3    9.4   3.7   45.7  71.3   1.8    1.4    0.8    13.4   4.7   104   101   19.1
    02/03  Rich. Jefferson  22    36.0    15.5  6.4   50.1  74.3   2.5    2.0    1.0    16.6   9.9   111   100   19.7
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    01/02  Joe Johnson      20    24.9    7.5   3.3   43.0  77.4   2.3    0.9    0.77   11.8   3.0   102   105   16.0
    02/03  Joe Johnson      21    27.3    9.8   3.2   39.7  77.4   2.6    1.3    0.8    12.10  2.8   99    105   19.1
     
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    04/05  Kevin Martin     21    10.1    2.9   1.3   38.5  65.5   0.5    0.5    0.4    8.7    0.1   96    111   16.1
    05/06  Kevin Martin     22    26.6    10.8  3.6   48.0  84.7   1.3    1.1    0.8    14.8   5.5   116   107   17.4
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    98/99  Paul Pierce      21    34.0    16.5  6.4   43.9  71.3   2.4    2.4    1.7    19.2   4.9   106   101   23.1
    99/00  Paul Pierce      22    35.4    19.5  5.4   44.2  79.8   3.0    2.4    2.1    19.8   8.2   109   103   24.8
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    01/02  Michael Redd*    22    21.1    11.4  3.3   48.3  79.1   1.4    0.9    0.6    20.0   4.6   116   109   23.7
    02/03  Michael Redd*    23    28.2    15.1  4.5   46.9  80.5   1.4    0.9    1.2    21.0   8.0   118   108   22.6
    * Rookie Year only played 6 games, so not including it

    I'd say the best comparison might be between Joe Johnson, Richard Hamilton, and Monta Ellis. Derozan definitely needs to improve in some areas. His defense may improve with Casey on board - but if it does not improve or slips, then I would definitely consider him a tradeable asset. The other area he needs to improve on is his assists. Although his ball handling skills is a known deficiency in his game. Hopefully that improves or else he can become an easy target on defense. Rebounds are low too, but he's a guard. That's not really a critical skill for his role on the team.

  8. #48
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    But throughout the season his handle improved...especially towards the end when he would be aggressive, at times he would bring it up court to set a play or sometimes he would drive and make a play, try looking at GameEntertainment's mix on YT

  9. #49
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    In order to really discuss Derozan's potential I found the best way is to compare him with other top tier wings in the league. I don't necessarily mean Wade, Kobe or Jordan because those are very special players. But I think it makes sense to start looking at some all-star talented guys and compare their first two season's with Derozan's and to see how far Derozan is from someone who would be considered a top talented player, and not just some scrub you could throw away for any draft pick.

    So here are stats I pulled from basketball-reference.com:

    Code:
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    09/10  Demar Derozan    20    21.4    8.6   2.9   49.8  76.3   0.7    0.8    0.6    12.5   2.3   110   115   18.1
    10/11  Demar Derozan    21    34.5    17.2  3.8   46.7  81.3   1.8    1.8    1.0    14.4   3.3   106   114   23.1
     
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    96/97  Ray Allen        21    30.9    13.4  4.0   43.0  82.3   2.6    1.8    0.9    14.6   4.9   109   110   21.4
    97/98  Ray Allen        22    40.1    19.5  4.9   42.8  87.5   4.3    3.2    1.4    16.2   7.0   106   108   24.3
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    05/06  Monta Ellis      20    18.1    6.8   2.1   41.5  71.2   1.6    1.2    0.7    11.1   0.5   95    107   20.2
    06/07  Monta Ellis      21    34.3    16.5  3.2   47.5  76.3   4.1    2.9    1.7    15.0   4.0   104   109   22.4
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    06/07  Rudy Gay         20    27.0    10.8  4.5   42.2  72.7   1.3    1.8    0.9    12.4   0.5   96    111   21.3
    07/08  Rudy Gay         21    37.0    20.1  6.2   46.1  78.5   2.0    2.3    1.4    17.4   5.0   106   110   25.0
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    05/06  Danny Granger    22    22.6    7.5   4.9   46.2  77.7   1.2    1.0    0.7    14.7   5.1   110   101   16.4
    06/07  Danny Granger    23    34.0    13.9  4.6   45.9  80.3   1.4    1.6    0.8    13.9   6.5   111   107   18.2
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    99/00  Rich. Hamilton   21    19.3    9.0   1.8   42.0  77.4   1.5    1.2    0.4    11.6   0.7   98    111   24.2
    00/01  Rich. Hamilton   22    32.3    18.1  3.1   43.8  86.8   2.9    2.6    1.0    15.7   2.4   100   111   28.1
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    04/05  Andre Iguodala   21    32.8    9.0   5.7   49.3  74.3   3.0    1.7    1.7    13.5   6.6   110   102   12.8
    05/06  Andre Iguodala   22    37.6    12.3  5.9   50.0  75.4   3.1    1.9    1.6    14.8   7.5   115   108   14.7
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    01/02  Rich. Jefferson  21    24.3    9.4   3.7   45.7  71.3   1.8    1.4    0.8    13.4   4.7   104   101   19.1
    02/03  Rich. Jefferson  22    36.0    15.5  6.4   50.1  74.3   2.5    2.0    1.0    16.6   9.9   111   100   19.7
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    01/02  Joe Johnson      20    24.9    7.5   3.3   43.0  77.4   2.3    0.9    0.77   11.8   3.0   102   105   16.0
    02/03  Joe Johnson      21    27.3    9.8   3.2   39.7  77.4   2.6    1.3    0.8    12.10  2.8   99    105   19.1
     
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    04/05  Kevin Martin     21    10.1    2.9   1.3   38.5  65.5   0.5    0.5    0.4    8.7    0.1   96    111   16.1
    05/06  Kevin Martin     22    26.6    10.8  3.6   48.0  84.7   1.3    1.1    0.8    14.8   5.5   116   107   17.4
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    98/99  Paul Pierce      21    34.0    16.5  6.4   43.9  71.3   2.4    2.4    1.7    19.2   4.9   106   101   23.1
    99/00  Paul Pierce      22    35.4    19.5  5.4   44.2  79.8   3.0    2.4    2.1    19.8   8.2   109   103   24.8
    
    Year   Name             Age   Min     Pts   Rbs   FG%   FT%    Asst   Turn   Stl    PER    WS    ORtg  DRtg  USG%
    01/02  Michael Redd*    22    21.1    11.4  3.3   48.3  79.1   1.4    0.9    0.6    20.0   4.6   116   109   23.7
    02/03  Michael Redd*    23    28.2    15.1  4.5   46.9  80.5   1.4    0.9    1.2    21.0   8.0   118   108   22.6
    * Rookie Year only played 6 games, so not including it

    I'd say the best comparison might be between Joe Johnson, Richard Hamilton, and Monta Ellis. Derozan definitely needs to improve in some areas. His defense may improve with Casey on board - but if it does not improve or slips, then I would definitely consider him a tradeable asset. The other area he needs to improve on is his assists. Although his ball handling skills is a known deficiency in his game. Hopefully that improves or else he can become an easy target on defense. Rebounds are low too, but he's a guard. That's not really a critical skill for his role on the team.
    I don't see the point of the stats here if you're just gonna do an opinion piece rather than an analysis

  10. #50
    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote Prime wrote: View Post
    I don't see the point of the stats here if you're just gonna do an opinion piece rather than an analysis
    I guess my point was that I was trying to back up my opinion with stats, and that its too early to tell what Derozan is going to end up like given that he's only played two full years for the Raptors. When comparing him with other top talents in the league you can argue that his stats are very close to others. So to indicate that he should be traded for any draft pick is a little to premature. He could end up being the next Joe Johnson, who may not be an elite athlete like Jordan, Kobe or Wade - but still a top tier talent in the league. I would not trade Joe Johnson for a top pick in next years draft.

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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    I guess my point was that I was trying to back up my opinion with stats, and that its too early to tell what Derozan is going to end up like given that he's only played two full years for the Raptors. When comparing him with other top talents in the league you can argue that his stats are very close to others. So to indicate that he should be traded for any draft pick is a little to premature. He could end up being the next Joe Johnson, who may not be an elite athlete like Jordan, Kobe or Wade - but still a top tier talent in the league. I would not trade Joe Johnson for a top pick in next years draft.
    I see what you mean now. However, I would still suggest you actually do an analysis for each argument you're presenting (e.g. the reason why his offensive rating is similar to Ray Allen's even though they play completely different games) instead of leaving us with a bunch of stats that we can pull from BR anytime.

  12. #52
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    i dont care what anyone else thinks but in my opinion he is going to be a top tier SG just wait and see...

  13. #53
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    Hear me out, but i think Derozan might actually average 25/5/3, he already averages 17.2/3.8/1.8, so if you round that up thats already 17/4/2 and don't forget his slump in the beginning where Sonny Weems was averaging more points, rebounds and assists, he can definitely average more than 20+ points, and he'll get better at rebounding and being a ballhandler, as he shown improvement from his rookie season, if you look at his game logs starting from Dec 31 against Houston where he had 37 points, a quick glance will make it look like he avg'ed 25/5/3 and if you actually averaged the game out I'm pretty sure you'll get similar #'s

  14. #54
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    Quote er1csh3n wrote: View Post
    Hear me out, but i think Derozan might actually average 25/5/3, he already averages 17.2/3.8/1.8, so if you round that up thats already 17/4/2 and don't forget his slump in the beginning where Sonny Weems was averaging more points, rebounds and assists, he can definitely average more than 20+ points, and he'll get better at rebounding and being a ballhandler, as he shown improvement from his rookie season, if you look at his game logs starting from Dec 31 against Houston where he had 37 points, a quick glance will make it look like he avg'ed 25/5/3 and if you actually averaged the game out I'm pretty sure you'll get similar #'s
    In the Final 8 games of the Season, (All of April) he did in fact average 23/5/3.6.
    From Dec. 31 - April 13, he averaged 20 Points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2 assists.
    (His Stats)

    If he can maintain the status quo, and his momentum, from how he finished off the season, I see no reason why he couldn't.
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    I've been a fan of DeRozan since before he was drafted, and have been a defender of him throughout his Raptor career....but....all this talk of him averaging this or that really doesn't take into account the area that he needs to improve the most in: Defense. I'd rather he average the same stats as last year and became a better than average defender, than averaging 25-6-4 and only slightly improved defense. Otherwise he's just a taller Monta Ellis, and I want nothing to do with him.
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  16. #56
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    I'm actually not too worried about his defense. He was average in his rookie year, and really inconsistent in his 2nd year. He's in that stage of his development in that Casey can remove his bad habits and instill good ones.

  17. #57
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    Quote Tim W. wrote: View Post
    I've been a fan of DeRozan since before he was drafted, and have been a defender of him throughout his Raptor career....but....all this talk of him averaging this or that really doesn't take into account the area that he needs to improve the most in: Defense. I'd rather he average the same stats as last year and became a better than average defender, than averaging 25-6-4 and only slightly improved defense. Otherwise he's just a taller Monta Ellis, and I want nothing to do with him.
    I completely agree.

    But I'd say, in that time frame I discussed earlier, his defense was far more improved than earlier in the season, and especially so over his Rookie season. His footwork improved, his tenacity improved, and given his Elite Athletic abilities, decent wingspan, incredible leaping ability, I see no reason why he can't turn himself into an Elite defender.
    Kobe wasn't a reliable defender by any means for his first few seasons, but he put in the work and turned himself into one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

    He'll come around.
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  18. #58
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    Quote joey_hesketh wrote: View Post
    Kobe wasn't a reliable defender by any means for his first few seasons, but he put in the work and turned himself into one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.
    I too believe that Demar will eventually get it on defense, but I wouldn't start comparing him to Kobe. Kobe was an excellent defender even as a rookie. His advanced stats as a rookie and sophomore on defense trumps DeMar's by a mile: http://www.basketball-reference.com/...bryanko01.html

    According to the stats anyways, Kobe's defense today is just as good as it was when he started in the league. His offense and the other intangibles like assists and rebounds is what really improved over the years.

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    DeRozan has never been a decent defender. He's shown some potential, but in his rookie season he was not a good defender. I don't see elite potential, and I'm not really sure how anyone else does. He simply doesn't have elite level instincts. You'd have seen that by now, young or not. I do believe he could end up being a good defender, especially with his attitude and work ethic, though.
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    He is a gymrat, besides defense is not like offensive where more talent is required, but involves more experience, timing, and hardwork. Derozan by no means is a good defender, but unlike Bargnani, DD is willing to work towards both sides of his game, not to mention he has an exceptional wingspan 6'9-6'10, 6'7 as a SG. and he performed above average in lateral quickness and sprints(not as fast as i expected) and has a 40' max vert, this guy could be a beast(not exaggerating) and terror for SGs if he can actually stay in front of them

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