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Thread: A tale of two point guards

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    Raptors Republic Starter TeamEd's Avatar
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    Default A tale of two point guards

    The Wizards' John Wall and the Raptors' Kyle Lowry are both driving PGs who rack up assists and get to the line.

    They're both advanced stats darlings with > 20 PERs, > 4.5 Win Shares, stellar NetRtgs, top 20 Real +/- and top 10 WAR.

    Wall passes more. Lowry scores more. But otherwise, by the old and the new numbers they look like similar players.

    And of course, Lowry and Wall are both Eastern Conference All-Star starters. #NBABallot

    But this is all misleading. You wouldn't notice by the numbers, but Lowry and Wall are very different point guards.

    How? It's about mentality: When Wall and Lowry are trying to lead their teams to a comeback, they take their offence in opposite directions.

    With the Raptors trailing, Lowry shoots more often than he normally does--a healthy 7 per cent more than his overall rate. *

    Wall meanwhile actually shoots less. He decreases his shooting rate by 8 per cent when behind. *

    In fact, if you rank the 50 players who've shot the most by how their shooting mentality changes in comebacks, Lowry is #1 and Wall is #50--by a fair margin:



    They pass differently in comebacks too.

    Wall increases his assist rate 9 per cent when the Wizards are trailing and Lowry decreases his by 7 per cent when the Raps are behind. *

    Of the 30 NBA players with the most total assists, Wall has the 5th most aggressive passing mentality when trailing.

    Lowry meanwhile decreases his assist rate in comebacks more than anyone on the list (except Lebron):



    So, even though their games are similar overall, Lowry and Wall are polar opposites when their teams' need them.

    In comebacks, Wall becomes a consummate team player while Lowry says "I got this," and goes to the rim.

    Funny thing: both approaches work. With Lowry on the court, the Raps are +5.9 in +/-per48 overall and +16.1 when trailing.

    Meanwhile, with Wall playing the Wiz are +7.0 in +/-per48 overall and +22 when trailing.

    Methodology

    UPDATE: These numbers are adjusted against the league average tendency to shoot more and record more assists when trailing. Why exactly there a league average tendency to shoot more when trailing? Who knows, but if I don't adjust then the graph get's shifted much more towards the positive end and it looks all wonky.

    The average NBA player is 5.4% more likely to take a true shooting attempt when trailing. He's also 3.9% more likely to record an assist.

    So, by the raw unadjusted numbers, Lowry increases his True Shot Attempt rate by 12.3% when trailing while Wall decreases his by only 2.6%.

    Wall meanwhile increases his unadjusted assist rate by 13.2 while trailing. Lowry decreases his by just 3.0. Got it?
    Last edited by TeamEd; Yesterday at 05:33 PM.
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    Quote TeamEd wrote: View Post
    The Wizards' John Wall and the Raptors' Kyle Lowry are both driving PGs who rack up assists and get to the line.

    They're both advanced stats darlings with > 20 PERs, > 4.5 Win Shares, stellar NetRtgs, top 20 Real +/- and top 10 WAR.

    Wall passes more. Lowry scores more. But otherwise, by the old and the new numbers they look like similar players.

    And of course, Lowry and Wall are both Eastern Conference All-Star starters. #NBABallot

    But this is all misleading. You wouldn't notice by the numbers, but Lowry and Wall are very different point guards.

    How? It's about mentality: When Wall and Lowry are trying to lead their teams to a comeback, they take their offence in opposite directions.

    With the Raptors trailing, Lowry shoots more often than he normally does--a healthy 7 per cent more than his overall rate.

    Wall meanwhile actually shoots less. He decreases his shooting rate by 8 per cent when behind.

    In fact, if you rank the 50 players who've shot the most by how their shooting mentality changes in comebacks, Lowry is #1 and Wall is #50--by a fair margin:



    They pass differently in comebacks too.

    Wall increases his assist rate 9 per cent when the Wizards are trailing and Lowry decreases his by 7 per cent when the Raps are behind.

    Of the 30 NBA players with the most total assists, Wall has the 5th most aggressive passing mentality when trailing.

    Lowry meanwhile decreases his assist rate in comebacks more than anyone on the list (except Lebron):



    So, even though their games are similar overall, Lowry and Wall are polar opposites when their teams' need them.

    In comebacks, Wall becomes a consummate team player while Lowry says "I got this," and goes to the rim.

    Funny thing: both approaches work. With Lowry on the court, the Raps are +5.9 in +/-per48 overall and +16.1 when trailing.

    Meanwhile, with Wall playing the Wiz are +7.0 in +/-per48 overall and +22 when trailing.

    Methodology
    How much is it the player and how much is it the coach. Wiz have Beal and Pierce to shoot but Casey doesn't trust any players in the 4Q unless its isolation plays. Gay, Demar, Lowry even Lou. Its a pattern.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star bryan colangelo's Avatar
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    Last I checked it's not like Randy Wittman is a coaching mastermind, either. John Wall is simply a more athletic, taller and gifted passer than Lowry. It's just easier for him to create open shots and take over a game with passing.

    Video for lulz.


    Casey's lack of play calling doesn't help, and Lowry definitely needs to trust his teammates more to hit open shots and make the second pass. But Lowry will never be as gifted or disruptive a creator as Wall. Of course, that doesn't mean Casey and Lowry shouldn't have to work harder to maximize his skill set and balance the offense in the 4th.
    Last edited by bryan colangelo; Yesterday at 07:37 AM.

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    Quote raptors999 wrote: View Post
    How much is it the player and how much is it the coach. Wiz have Beal and Pierce to shoot but Casey doesn't trust any players in the 4Q unless its isolation plays. Gay, Demar, Lowry even Lou. Its a pattern.
    It's not Casey's fault lowry has tunnel vision late in games...

    For example just last game took a 3 on 1 three when greivjs was wide open to his right and then jonas was open under the basket. He's lucky he made the basket tho
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    Quote Yabadabayolo wrote: View Post
    It's not Casey's fault lowry has tunnel vision late in games...

    For example just last game took a 3 on 1 three when greivjs was wide open to his right and then jonas was open under the basket. He's lucky he made the basket tho
    I think it's more Casey's fault. Casey could pull Lowry aside and let him know that what he did was unacceptable. Lowry is a professional and should know better, but Casey can dictate how he wants his team to play. If the guys don't listen then we have an even bigger issue.

    A lot of guys under Casey have gone tunnel vision. On this team alone I've seen Lou, GV and DeMar do it. In prior seasons Rudy and Andrea did it as well.

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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    I think it's more Casey's fault. Casey could pull Lowry aside and let him know that what he did was unacceptable. Lowry is a professional and should know better, but Casey can dictate how he wants his team to play. If the guys don't listen then we have an even bigger issue.

    A lot of guys under Casey have gone tunnel vision. On this team alone I've seen Lou, GV and DeMar do it. In prior seasons Rudy and Andrea did it as well.
    However by that logic, coaches like Thibs, joerger, blast are the same. I'm not saying Casey is the best coach ever, but he certainly isn't as bad as you guys make him out to be. He's in the second tier of coaching with guys like Joerger Whitman and Vogel
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    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote Yabadabayolo wrote: View Post
    However by that logic, coaches like Thibs, joerger, blast are the same. I'm not saying Casey is the best coach ever, but he certainly isn't as bad as you guys make him out to be. He's in the second tier of coaching with guys like Joerger Whitman and Vogel
    Conley and the Grizz do pass the ball around, so I'm not sure why the reference to Joerger. But yeah Thibs can't coach offense. I agree with that one. I think getting a team with Lebron was the worst possible scenario for Blatt. He has to let the inmates do what they please.

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    Quote Yabadabayolo wrote: View Post
    It's not Casey's fault lowry has tunnel vision late in games...

    For example just last game took a 3 on 1 three when greivjs was wide open to his right and then jonas was open under the basket. He's lucky he made the basket tho
    Hey man good morning.

    Just curious, do you think Casey has the right to as PlanetMars said pull a player aside and instruct him on what to do?
    Do you think the players respect him enough to obey him in his game plan?

    These players make millions of dollars and if im not mistaken, they are forced to listen to the coach, it's compulsive orders.
    Perhaps they don't go about it like that because they want chemistry and what not , but it's not like the discussion is going like

    Casey : "I want you to run the play I drew up"
    Lowry : "No, im taking matters in my own hands"
    Casey : "All right, what ever"

    it's probably more like

    Casey : "Kyle we're going to need you to make those *open shots* "
    Lowry : "All right"
    2006-07 NBA Coach of the Year

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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    Conley and the Grizz do pass the ball around, so I'm not sure why the reference to Joerger. But yeah Thibs can't coach offense. I agree with that one. I think getting a team with Lebron was the worst possible scenario for Blatt. He has to let the inmates do what they please.
    I just added joerger in there cuz Conley and gasol a re both 2 and 3 respectively in the shooters mentality chart. That means they shoot a lot late and don't pass as much
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    Quote SamMitchells wrote: View Post
    Hey man good morning.

    Just curious, do you think Casey has the right to as PlanetMars said pull a player aside and instruct him on what to do?
    Do you think the players respect him enough to obey him in his game plan?

    These players make millions of dollars and if im not mistaken, they are forced to listen to the coach, it's compulsive orders.
    Perhaps they don't go about it like that because they want chemistry and what not , but it's not like the discussion is going like

    Casey : "I want you to run the play I drew up"
    Lowry : "No, im taking matters in my own hands"
    Casey : "All right, what ever"

    it's probably more like

    Casey : "Kyle we're going to need you to make those *open shots* "
    Lowry : "All right"
    Casey doesn't have the balls to go up to a all star starter and tell em, stop hogging the ball. I don't think anyone has the balls to that tbh.

    I think the convos go like, "jonas screen lowry then lowry, access the situation from there"

    Casey sure as he'll doesn't say, " when jonas sets the screen, shoot that three with 3 blue shirts on ya. Don't pass to gv cuz he's wide open to the right of ya. Go get em fam"
    In Swag we Trust

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    Quote Yabadabayolo wrote: View Post
    However by that logic, coaches like Thibs, joerger, blast are the same. I'm not saying Casey is the best coach ever, but he certainly isn't as bad as you guys make him out to be. He's in the second tier of coaching with guys like Joerger Whitman and Vogel
    Joerger won 50 games in his first season and is now second in the Western Conf and has won as a head coach in minor leagues.Vogel has never been under .500 and reached the ECF.

    Casey's best year is still less than each of their worst years. Whittman won a playoff round.

    Monty Williams is better than Casey just looking at record over a career but barely.

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    Quote raptors999 wrote: View Post
    Joerger won 50 games in his first season and is now second in the Western Conf and has won as a head coach in minor leagues.Vogel has never been under .500 and reached the ECF.

    Casey's best year is still less than each of their worst years. Whittman won a playoff round.

    Monty Williams is better than Casey just looking at record over a career but barely.
    K so joerger coached an already stacked Memphis team that won 56 games and reached the west finals the year before in his first year...

    Vogel had a pretty good Indiana squad with pg becoming a star for him. And btw he's under 500 this year. He's a good defensive coach but his offensive sets are just as shitty as Casey's...

    Casey's is on pace to win minimum 50 this year. Whitman won a playoff series but Casey almost did too by one fucking point. #fuckbrooklyn

    And if you truly believe Monty Williams, the doode with anthony 'MVP' Davis as his main player is better than Casey ' the guy who had to coach bargs and the super shitty raps for 3 years'.' This convo is over
    Last edited by Yabadabayolo; Yesterday at 11:09 AM.
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    Raptors Republic Superstar planetmars's Avatar
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    Quote Yabadabayolo wrote: View Post
    I just added joerger in there cuz Conley and gasol a re both 2 and 3 respectively in the shooters mentality chart. That means they shoot a lot late and don't pass as much
    Ahh okay, sorry didn't follow you.. Interestingly Conley is also 4th in the "Passing Mentality" list.

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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    Ahh okay, sorry didn't follow you.. Interestingly Conley is also 4th in the "Passing Mentality" list.
    Its a classic strategy high percentage shot in the post late in games. A six point lead with a >50% scorer requires more than 6 3 pointers at greater than 50%. Figure in the time to get a decent three pointer and that lead is tough. A penetrating guard helps too.

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    Quote Yabadabayolo wrote: View Post
    I just added joerger in there cuz Conley and gasol a re both 2 and 3 respectively in the shooters mentality chart. That means they shoot a lot late and don't pass as much
    Not to be all semantic about it, but the number is looking at attempts with behind in score at anytime, not just late.

    If I were to guess, I'd say that coaching has a fair amount to do with it. It's like, when the team trails it will naturally go to the offensive sets it trusts the most to try and get back into the game. For the Raps, that means Kyle with the ball, probably shooting. For the Wiz, it means Wall with the ball, probably passing. For the Grizzlies, it probably means two man play with Gasol and Conley.

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    Raptors Republic Starter Bonus Jonas's Avatar
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    Lebron low on both lists, seems like he just takes a back seat when the Cavs are trailing

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    Quote Bonus Jonas wrote: View Post
    Lebron low on both lists, seems like he just takes a back seat when the Cavs are trailing
    Lebron can score at >60% at the rim. He is the highest percentage shot but if they need a three he will pass to an open shooter. I don't think I've ever seen him pull up for a three to win or tie.

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    Quote raptors999 wrote: View Post
    Lebron can score at >60% at the rim. He is the highest percentage shot but if they need a three he will pass to an open shooter. I don't think I've ever seen him pull up for a three to win or tie.
    pretty sure he did that last year against golden state and won the game with a pull up 3, while they were down 2.

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    Quote iblastoff wrote: View Post
    pretty sure he did that last year against golden state and won the game with a pull up 3, while they were down 2.
    He was feeling it and it was a cocky move against Curry. Showboating in a meaningless game. In crunch time he isn't pulling up with time on the clock.

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    Quote raptors999 wrote: View Post
    He was feeling it and it was a cocky move against Curry. Showboating in a meaningless game. In crunch time he isn't pulling up with time on the clock.
    oh so now it needs to be in a specific situation in a certain type of game that you count what a pull up 3 is. got it.

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