The Amir Johnson Conundrum - Gold or Fallacy? Part 2 begins in post 90

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

Been noticing on the boards lately that posters seem split on Amir, some think he is overpaid, some think he's the most valuable Raptor....

What do you guys think? Is Amir worth more to the Raps in the roster, or as trade bait?

IMO, i think it can go both ways. Amir is definitely one of the valuable pieces in the Raps roster, but i also think he can command a trade higher than what he is really valued for. I think there are many teams in the league who are willing to overtrade for Amir. And if one of those teams come knocking, should the Raps listen? I think so. Just because we already have JV and Ed on the roster.

[Matt52]

Amir is a great first big off the bench. I do not think he is starting calibre on a TOP team. His contract is reasonable, his pay is in line with his performance. He does not turn 25 until May so he is still 'young' with potential.

I would trade Bargnani before Amir.

I would trade ED before Amir if the Raptors selected a PF in the draft who had more potential than both. Given ED's rookie deal with higher potential, I think he would have higher trade value.

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

Amir is a great first big off the bench. I do not think he is starting calibre on a TOP team. His contract is reasonable, his pay is in line with his performance. He does not turn 25 until May so he is still 'young' with potential.

I would trade Bargnani before Amir.

I would trade ED before Amir if the Raptors selected a PF in the draft who had more potential than both. Given ED's rookie deal with higher potential, I think he would have higher trade value.

I guess i was already assuming that Bargnani is first to go before Amir when i started the thread.
Just didnt want to mention it or else this is gonna turn into another Bargnani thread!

[WJF]

Can Amir fetch you a lottery pick on his own, I don't think so. Is he a valuable player in a 4 man big rotation to the Raptor's, yes. Is he a player that is hard to replace, no.

[Nilanka]

I'm torn on Amir. I like his hustle, his attitude, and his willingness to play through injuries. But I don't see him in our starting front court over Davis. Yes, he's still relatively young, but I don't see him getting much better than he currently is.

Having said that, if he can turn into the type of glue/chemistry guy that Haslem is for the Heat, then perhaps Amir is more valuable than his numbers (seen at face value) suggest.

And the fact that some see Amir as our best player last year, is really an indication of how poor our roster is, rather than how good Amir is.

[Matt52]

Can Amir fetch you a lottery pick on his own, I don't think so. Is he a valuable player in a 4 man big rotation to the Raptor's, yes. Is he a player that is hard to replace, no.

In terms of work ethic, production, person, contract, still untapped potential, and relative to other back up bigs around the league, I think he would be difficult to replace. But that is just me.

[ezz_bee]

This is a post I did in March looking at Amir's production versus salary versus other PF/C making similar money

SOURCE

It's quite a long post but here are my findings

RELATIVE TO OTHER PLAYERS UNDER CONTRACT, AMIR’S CONTRACT BECOMES MORE VALUABLE YEAR OVER YEAR. This is assuming he sustains his current output with no decrease or increase in production. However, the overall value of his contract will be greatly impacted by the outcome of the collective bargaining agreement which will determine the terms of new free agent contracts.

It is pretty easy to argue that Andersen is better at defense than Amir and that Warrick and Bass are better offensively; however, it would be very hard to argue that any of these players are better than Amir at both ends. Amir also is the youngest of this group, so you could argue that he is as likely, if not more likely to improve relative to the rest of these guys.

Based on what I’ve learned by going through this exercise, I would say that over the next two years…

Best Case Scenario: Amir’s numbers improve significantly and although he is not an all-star is a slightly better than average starting Power Forward.

Worst Case Scenario: His numbers stay the same, or decline slightly, and we have a slightly overpaid back-up Power Forward.

Most Likely Scenario: Amir's production stays the same or goes up slightly and we have a very valuable back-up power forward.

Based on Amir’s age, current production, and salary, combined with the organization not wanting to go to much younger, it would be VERY difficult to replace Amir’s production in both offense and defense with a “cheaper” player. Therefore, it makes sense to keep Amir for at least the next two seasons, at which point his contract will still be valuable even if he doesn't "fit" with the team or is unhappy in his role.

I will admit a bias towards Amir. BUT I also believe I am baised towards guys that produce above what they are being paid. As long as Amir is happy being a starter OR coming off the bench, is a glue guy as opposed to a trouble maker, I can't see why you trade him UNLESS you are getting a NEED back at a DIFFERENT POSITION that gives the VALUE that Amir does. I think the odds of this being possible are VERY small. But he is not untouchable. I also think that Amir would be one of the best back up PF in the league AND capable of starting if the starting pf gets injured.

I am all for keeping him. We are currently getting a good return on our investment and are likely to continue to get that return. I do not think that he is easily replaced.

[slaw]

I see Amir as that 8th/8.5 guy on a good team. In that role, I think he has real value at his current salary.

As for trading him, well, if you can get better value then sure, outside of franchise players everyone is available. Having said that, not sure you'd get value back for him. Personally, I think Davis is a better rebounder and defender and will be more versatile offensively than Amir down the road but, again, you still need extra bigs who can play and there's no reason Amir can't be that guy. A Davis/Amir PF combo should work just fine along a Valancunias (let's assume he pans out). Add either a stretch big or a brusing big and you're good up front.

[RapthoseLeafs]

IMO, Amir is not the most valuable player - but valuable none-the-less. And his salary his fine by me. If Raptors were an American team (in a big city - like we are), it's possible we get him for slightly less. Suffice to say, I've come to accept that Toronto has to pay a premium (even up to 20%) to bring in talent.

With Jonas coming on stream, Bargnani as the scoring threat, and Amir as most likely to "accept" a Big man role off the Bench, I could see Ed Davis being moved out in order for the Raptors to beef up other positions. If we have a season (and Raptors do need one), one would hope Ed's value improves. Especially if he bulks up and takes a more traditional Centre role.

I like Davis, and I hate jettisoning draft picks, but in this case we'll have too many of the same (4 Bigs), and not enough of the rest (PG, SG back-up, SF, and Bench).
.

[ezz_bee]

I agree that unless one of Amir/Bargs/Davis gets significant burn as a center one is on the outs. based on casey's lack of mention of ed davis and coangelo's perceived man crush of barg's it looks like davis is the odd man out. Time will tell!

[Nilanka]

I agree that unless one of Amir/Bargs/Davis gets significant burn as a center one is on the outs. based on casey's lack of mention of ed davis and coangelo's perceived man crush of barg's it looks like davis is the odd man out. Time will tell!

If Colangelo trades Davis over Bargs, then I'll be starting a petition to occupy Bay Street.

[Tim W.]

Can Amir fetch you a lottery pick on his own, I don't think so. Is he a valuable player in a 4 man big rotation to the Raptor's, yes. Is he a player that is hard to replace, no.

I completely disagree that he isn't hard to replace. He's a young, athletic big man who hustles, defends, rebounds and scores extremely efficiently. And he comes at a decent price. Name me 10 other big men who fit that description. Hell, name me 5. Most other big men might hustle and defend and rebound, but are a bit of a liability on offense (cough*Reggie*cough). Amir isn't a threat to put up 20 ppg, but he moves so well without the ball, has such good hands and can now hit the 15 footer when left open that you can't leave him alone or he'll kill you. While he is a role player, I think role players like Amir are often undervalued.

I also disagree with the notion that he can't start on a contender. He's certainly not going to be the 2nd or 3rd option, but there's no reason he wouldn't be able to start on a contender. His biggest weakness is his penchant for fouling, which he improved on drastically last season.

I do think that his future on the Raptors is as the first big off the bench, but having a trio of Valanciunas, Davis and Amir makes me EXTREMELY optimistic for the future. I think most teams would LOVE to have a guy like Amir as their 3rd big man.

[er1csh3n]

I really like Johnson, but he is not starter material on a good playoff team, he is a very valuable 6/7 man, and I would definitely trade Bargnani over him, but Ed Davis has shown the most potential to be a 2nd/3rd option on a playoff team, Amir Johnson is not overpaid or underpaid, I think with his daily consistent production he is being paid just right, better than Kleiza's deal at least.

[Tim W.]

I really like Johnson, but he is not starter material on a good playoff team

Why?

[Papa Burgundy]

I would actually deal Amir before Ed Davis. Ed has the potential to be a game changer, double-double threat every night with strong rim defense.

Amir has been amazing for us, and I don't think he's overpaid ... but he's not a player that has the ability to drastically alter our future. He will play a great role as a bench big, whether it's for a loser or a contender - BUT he will not MAKE that team a loser or contender ... Role player.

Raptors need more than just the addition of Big V and another high pick - we also need strong internal development and an additional talented PG or SF through free agency in the next 2 years. Ed has the ability to grow more than Amir, imo.

If you're interested in seeing the starting line-up in 2012-13, it is:

Austin Rivers
Demar Derozan
Nicolas Batum
Andrea Bargnani
Jonas Valaciunas

With a bench unti of Ed Davis, Jose Calderon, James Johnson and a re-signed Barbosa.

[er1csh3n]

A starter in a good playoff team has a balanced skill set of offense and defense (usually), while many label Amir as a good defender, is offensive while not completely dead needs a lot of work. His jumper is improving, but I have yet to see him at least try a couple post moves. He is not a starter in a good playoff team, but that doesn't mean he won't get starter minutes.

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

My only concern with Amir is injuries.

He has tons of experience for such a young player, but one can also argue that he's put so much wear and tear on that body at such a young age. Its like buying a 2009 vehicle with 200,000km mileage on it. A bit exag, but you get the point. Specially with the young raptors team who are always looking to run.

I love Amir, but i think, Bargnani's offense (and being BC's boy) and Ed's youth and potential will eventually make him the odd man out. I really want to believe that Bargnani will be the odd man out, but i really cant. I havent seen any indication that Colangelo is willing to let him go.

[Matt52]

My only concern with Amir is injuries.

He has tons of experience for such a young player, but one can also argue that he's put so much wear and tear on that body at such a young age. Its like buying a 2009 vehicle with 200,000km mileage on it. A bit exag, but you get the point. Specially with the young raptors team who are always looking to run.

I love Amir, but i think, Bargnani's offense (and being BC's boy) and Ed's youth and potential will eventually make him the odd man out. I really want to believe that Bargnani will be the odd man out, but i really cant. I havent seen any indication that Colangelo is willing to let him go.

He only played 11 games his first 2 seasons and 62 games in his 3rd and 4th seasons.

Last year were his first missed games due to injury.

[TheGloveinRapsUniform]

He only played 11 games his first 2 seasons and 62 games in his 3rd and 4th seasons.

Last year were his first missed games due to injury.

I did check that on Yahoo Sports, but what they failed to mention was that he played quite a lot of games with the D-League, plus not playing any competitive games doesnt mean he is not going full-force on practice or pre-season games. Right now, i dont think its a concern, but it could (not saying it will) become one in the immediate future.

[RapthoseLeafs]

I completely disagree that he [Amir] isn't hard to replace. He's a young, athletic big man who hustles, defends, rebounds and scores extremely efficiently. [Tim W.]

I agree (in our case). I'm not sure other teams don't have such a player. At least Contending teams.

I also disagree with the notion that he can't start on a contender. [Tim W.]

It's possible, but unlikely - IMO - and I'd venture to guess, a lot more opinions. Amir is best suited as the 3rd Big. Why? Because if Jonas is the Starting Centre (whenever that would happen), or someone else fills the spot (a Chandler/Noah type), there won't be enough scoring up front. Unless you do what the Italian team coach did - bring Andrea off the Bench after 5 minutes. That might work. Notwithstanding this option, the starting unit of Jonas & Amir would feature a great defense, but would put too much pressure on the other positions to supply the offense.

If Colangelo trades Davis over Bargs, then I'll be starting a petition to occupy Bay Street. [Nilanka]

See below for my opinion on this. As to your predilection for being part of a fractured and directionless group (some with good intentions), why do we keep discussing a Bargnani trade option as a fait accompli. Or at least infer such an option. It just seems like such a waste of time and breath. Besides venting, it serves no useful purpose.

On a side note, you guys need the Colbert Super PAC to lead your thoughts. lol

I would actually deal Amir before Ed Davis. Ed has the potential to be a game changer, double-double threat every night with strong rim defense. [ Papa Burgundy ]

The last part of your statement is the reason why I think Ed will be moved. When it comes to trades, players like Andrea & Amir might have value, but it's the potential value (and rookie contract), that makes Davis a valuable trading commodity. A greater number of teams (poor & rich), will see the value in this type of guy.

The contrasting opinion will say - then why not keep him. The answer is simple. Raptors have needs in other positions. Any GM will tell you - you need to give something up, to get something good back. With Jonas, Andrea & Amir rounding out the Big situation (in this scenario), moving Ed becomes more palatable. A team with multiple 1st picks, or a duplicity of Small Forwards, might find Davis an interesting possibility. Raptors chances are better with draft picks & trades (for a PG, SF etc. pick-up). Free Agency is affected by the Canadian border roadblock - and fresh air that smells funny ... eh?

Trading Andrea may return something of value, but his contract will deter a number of teams. Johnson - while a valuable player - is a role player (IMO). An up and coming team would probably wish to find their own, and a Contender is probably sporting a AJ version already.

Ed is cheap and with great upside. That's worth more than you think, on the open market.

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