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The Amir Johnson Conundrum - Gold or Fallacy? Part 2 begins in post 90

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  • #31
    Tim W. wrote: View Post
    Besides, last time I checked, Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan (if you count him as a center), David Robinson, Hakeem, Ewing, Abdul-Jabar, among others, were all All-Defensive centers who also scored 20+ ppg.
    That company of Stars is some pretty serious talent. If Jonas becomes a Ewing or Duncan, then all bets are off.

    However to me, that's putting some serious hope onto a player, that really hasn't played an NBA level of competition. I'd hate to see fans expect far more from him, than what I'd hope he can be. Otherwise he'll get run out of town.

    Tim W. wrote: View Post
    The point is to figure out the players worth keeping, and keep those, and then trade the others. If you HAVE to, then you can trade a keeper if it gets you to the next level, but that's certainly not the case with the Raptors. To me, Davis is an absolute keeper. Bargnani is obviously not. While you won't get more for Bargnani than for Davis, you'll improve your team more by trading away Bargnani and replacing him with a player that will help you win more.
    Bargnani aside - and you know we disagree on this one (so no point beating ourselves over about him) - my definition of success is not waiting for Barbara Streisand to show up and sing A Star is Born, and build around him.

    My preference is to develop a core and hope we snag that elusive player from amongst the existing picks, coming picks, lucky picks, a trade (long shot), free agency (even longer shot), or wherever else we can find him.

    Waiting for that Star is what we did with Bosh - although I'd argue he isn't the kind of Star I want. If we have a competitive team (with some good players - even inflated players), other teams will notice, and our odds of snagging someone (or a potential draft pick) will increase. I completely disagree with Star first, team second. How's that got us, or Cleveland.

    In some ways, I'd ask why we can't attempt another Detroit style team. People argue it was a rare occurrence, but if one reviews the past Championship teams, winning is a rarity for most of the league.

    Tim W. wrote: View Post
    Bargnani, for all his offensive skills, has never shown he actually helps your team win. Not in five years. Davis is the type of player that usually ends up winning a Championship. It's not a difficult choice to me.
    Davis has talent, but he's very much a newbie. He may turn out to be great, or a great addition to the team, but he's still potential going forward. He's not a Centre (at this point), and he's not a firecracker at PF (despite how some trumpet his efficiency - as he's had little opponent focus). People point out Andrea's lower numbers, but as Demar experienced, higher usage brings lower efficiency. Especially when you're the #1 or #2 option. Adapting is what makes a good / great player. For all the knocks you put on AB, last year was his first year in that alpha male role.

    But I digress - plus I don't want this to be about Andrea. Haven't we talked ad nausea about him.

    What I believe, is that talent begets talent. It's how you arrange it, that makes one successful. You can't argue that Raptors have most of their talent in Bigs. So it stands to reason that one has to be moved (when Jonas gets here), and the most productive means (in getting good return), is the guy who you'd probably wish could stay. That's how sports work - even though it sucks. I've always felt we move our draft picks out (too soon), but sometimes you have to bite the bullet, if you're hoping to continue that build.

    To me, teams would salivate over Ed Davis. If BC can jump on some drooling GM, and make the team more balanced .... I say - why not?

    I'm tired of building .... and building ... and building. Last I heard, building meant you were moving up - not lateral. You think that doesn't include Andrea. I don't agree.

    But I do agree I like debating with you. lol
    .

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    • #32
      RapthoseLeafs wrote: View Post
      That company of Stars is some pretty serious talent. If Jonas becomes a Ewing or Duncan, then all bets are off.

      However to me, that's putting some serious hope onto a player, that really hasn't played an NBA level of competition. I'd hate to see fans expect far more from him, than what I'd hope he can be. Otherwise he'll get run out of town.
      .
      I'm not suggesting that Valanciunas is going to become a Hall of Fame player, but simply pointing to the fact that he can be both a good offensive AND defensive player. He certainly has displayed the tools to do so. Why prevent him from fulfilling his potential?

      A lesser center who was a great defensive player but also scored 20+ ppg was Alonzo Mourning.

      RapthoseLeafs wrote: View Post
      Bargnani aside - and you know we disagree on this one (so no point beating ourselves over about him) - my definition of success is not waiting for Barbara Streisand to show up and sing A Star is Born, and build around him.

      My preference is to develop a core and hope we snag that elusive player from amongst the existing picks, coming picks, lucky picks, a trade (long shot), free agency (even longer shot), or wherever else we can find him.

      Waiting for that Star is what we did with Bosh - although I'd argue he isn't the kind of Star I want. If we have a competitive team (with some good players - even inflated players), other teams will notice, and our odds of snagging someone (or a potential draft pick) will increase. I completely disagree with Star first, team second. How's that got us, or Cleveland.

      In some ways, I'd ask why we can't attempt another Detroit style team. People argue it was a rare occurrence, but if one reviews the past Championship teams, winning is a rarity for most of the league.
      .
      Winning a Championship is a rarity in this league, but winning a Championship without an elite player is like planning for your retirement by buying lottery tickets. In many ways, Detroit winning a Championship was a fluke that probably won't be repeated. It was an off year, Rasheed Wallace fell into their laps, injuries to some contenders and Shaq and Kobe feuding basically crippling the Lakers. Winning a Championship is hard enough in the NBA. Why make it harder by following a blueprint that has almost no chance of succeeding.

      And what the Detroit-style backers never seem to realize is that you've got a better chance of drafting an elite player than you do of winning a Championship without one.

      You also have to realize that Detroit got to where they did by having a great defensive core. They didn't have any weak links on the defensive end. So if you're going to pick players on the Raptors who should become core players on a Detroit-style team, Bargnani certainly cannot be included. In fact the only two teams in the last 30 years (or probably more) that didn't have a First Team All-NBA player on it were the last two Champions from Detroit. And they both won by having great defensive players.

      To me, there are 4 players that I would try to hold onto if I could. In order, Valanciunas, Davis, Amir and DeRozan (who must show improvement on the defensive end this year to remain on the list). Now if a better option at their position comes along (like if the Raptors drafted Anthony Davis or Andre Drummond, for example) then they become expendable.

      RapthoseLeafs wrote: View Post
      Davis has talent, but he's very much a newbie. He may turn out to be great, or a great addition to the team, but he's still potential going forward. He's not a Centre (at this point), and he's not a firecracker at PF (despite how some trumpet his efficiency - as he's had little opponent focus). People point out Andrea's lower numbers, but as Demar experienced, higher usage brings lower efficiency. Especially when you're the #1 or #2 option. Adapting is what makes a good / great player. For all the knocks you put on AB, last year was his first year in that alpha male role.

      But I digress - plus I don't want this to be about Andrea. Haven't we talked ad nausea about him.

      What I believe, is that talent begets talent. It's how you arrange it, that makes one successful. You can't argue that Raptors have most of their talent in Bigs. So it stands to reason that one has to be moved (when Jonas gets here), and the most productive means (in getting good return), is the guy who you'd probably wish could stay. That's how sports work - even though it sucks. I've always felt we move our draft picks out (too soon), but sometimes you have to bite the bullet, if you're hoping to continue that build.

      To me, teams would salivate over Ed Davis. If BC can jump on some drooling GM, and make the team more balanced .... I say - why not?

      I'm tired of building .... and building ... and building. Last I heard, building meant you were moving up - not lateral. You think that doesn't include Andrea. I don't agree.

      But I do agree I like debating with you. lol
      As we both agree, building a Championship team is an incredibly difficult thing. You need the right kind of players, not just the most talented players. To me, while Davis may not ever live up to his potential, his game is one that makes me think he'll probably end up winning a ring someday. I want players like that one my team. They're pretty rare in the NBA. The last thing you want to do is trade one of those guys away.

      Bargnani is certainly not going to fetch as much as Davis will, but with a trio of Davis, Valanciunas and Amir, you're not going to have any big questions about your front line. Teams aren't going to be able to take advantage of a weakness in that lineup. While neither Davis nor Amir will probably end up being big scorers, they're not going to hurt you on that end. Teams daring them to score (a la Ben Wallace) are going to pay for it.

      With Bargnani in your lineup, you're always going to be at a disadvantage on the defensive end. Always. And you're always going to have to try and figure out how to cover him up. And there's always going to be a good chance that teams will take advantage of that weakness in the playoffs, making you less likely to have playoff success.

      And Bargnani's contract only gets bigger, making him harder and harder to try and move. The smart thing is to move him now, while you can still (presumably) get a decent return for him, and feel secure that your front line is set for (hopefully) the next 10 years.
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      • #33
        er1csh3n wrote: View Post
        A starter in a good playoff team has a balanced skill set of offense and defense (usually), while many label Amir as a good defender, is offensive while not completely dead needs a lot of work. His jumper is improving, but I have yet to see him at least try a couple post moves. He is not a starter in a good playoff team, but that doesn't mean he won't get starter minutes.
        There are plenty of starters on "good" playoff teams (and even Championship calibre clubs) that do not meet your criteria, both historically and in the short term. You don't need five stars for starters to be successful, and I'd even argue that you're better off having a few "glue guys" sprinkled in the starting line up to help with on court chemistry. Building a winning team isn't like throwing a fantasy basketball team together. There's more to it then assembling the five guys with the best statistics - the pieces need to fit.

        Keith Bogans started in Chicago last season for number one seed in the playoffs. DeShawn Stevenson in Dallas. Zaza Pachulia in Atlanta. Tony Allen in Memphis. And those are just off the top of my head from last season. I'd lump Amir in with a group like that because he's shown a willingness to do the dirty work, doesn't need plays run for him on O, crashes the boards, sets screens, etc. He's even showing his ability to knock down the elbow jumper. Personally I think he'd be most valuable on a contending team because he'd be able to stick to his strengths and not asked to do too much on the offensive end.

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        • #34
          Fully wrote: View Post
          There are plenty of starters on "good" playoff teams (and even Championship calibre clubs) that do not meet your criteria, both historically and in the short term. You don't need five stars for starters to be successful, and I'd even argue that you're better off having a few "glue guys" sprinkled in the starting line up to help with on court chemistry. Building a winning team isn't like throwing a fantasy basketball team together. There's more to it then assembling the five guys with the best statistics - the pieces need to fit.

          Keith Bogans started in Chicago last season for number one seed in the playoffs. DeShawn Stevenson in Dallas. Zaza Pachulia in Atlanta. Tony Allen in Memphis. And those are just off the top of my head from last season. I'd lump Amir in with a group like that because he's shown a willingness to do the dirty work, doesn't need plays run for him on O, crashes the boards, sets screens, etc. He's even showing his ability to knock down the elbow jumper. Personally I think he'd be most valuable on a contending team because he'd be able to stick to his strengths and not asked to do too much on the offensive end.
          Bang on. There is no reason that Amir couldn't start on a playoff team. As Tim said earlier he isn't going to be a 2nd or even 3rd option, but there is no reason he couldn't play a significant role.

          I'm gonna add a few names to the list and include Thabo Sefalosha and Joel Anthony.

          Comment


          • #35
            winning a Championship without an elite player is like planning for your retirement by buying lottery tickets. In many ways, Detroit winning a Championship was a fluke that probably won't be repeated.
            I'd actually argue that Detroit did have a superstar... Ben Wallace (while in his prime ofcourse). Ofcourse he probably doesn't fit the typical definition of a superstar as he isn't a great scorer.

            He was one of the best, if not the best, defensive players in NBA history during his years in Detroit.
            Last edited by GarbageTime; Thu Nov 3, 2011, 09:28 AM.

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            • #36
              Tim W. wrote: View Post
              First of all, the only reason you'd NEED Valanciunas to be a dominant defensive center is if you keep Bargnani, since he basically has to make up for Bargnani's defensive liabilities. With a trio of Valanciunas, Davis and Amir, Valanciunas wouldn't have to become Dikembe.

              Besides, last time I checked, Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan (if you count him as a center), David Robinson, Hakeem, Ewing, Abdul-Jabar, among others, were all All-Defensive centers who also scored 20+ ppg.
              Let's play guess the intruder.

              Hakeem Olajuwon, drafted 1st overall.
              Dwight Howard, drafted 1st overall immediately out of high school.
              Tim Duncan, drafted 1st overall.
              David Robinson, drafted 1st overall.
              Patrick Ewing, drafted first overall.
              Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, drafted 1st overall.
              Jonas Valanciunas, drafted 5th overall.

              With the exception of the intruder, all the other centers were certain to go 1st overall with another exception: Hakeem. To Hakeem's defense, 3 other Hall of Famers were drafted in his class, including one which many consider to be the best player to ever play the game.

              Was the intruder drafted lower because it was very doubtful he could play in the NBA in th eimmediate future? I doubt it as San Antonio has already proven that if a player is good enough, they can draft 1st overall knowing he has first honor a two year commitment to the Navy.

              Will be intruder be a Hall of Famer? I don't think even his strongest supporters suggest it.

              A better question would be: will the intruder be a quality starting center? The intruder has show glimpses of being of very useful player but as he has not dominated his competition in Europe, the jury is still out as to how good he will be in the NBA.

              This craziness about stating he will be a very good starting centers for the Raptors as a fait accompli is just setting yourselves up for further disappointment if he does not measure up to your high expectations.

              Comment


              • #37
                Hugmenot wrote: View Post
                This craziness about stating he will be a very good starting centers for the Raptors as a fait accompli is just setting yourselves up for further disappointment if he does not measure up to your high expectations.
                I think the comparison was simply to show that it's possible for Valanciunas to be effective on both ends of the court, rather than a prediction of how good he will be.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Tim W. wrote: View Post
                  I'm not suggesting that Valanciunas is going to become a Hall of Fame player, but simply pointing to the fact that he can be both a good offensive AND defensive player. He certainly has displayed the tools to do so. Why prevent him from fulfilling his potential?

                  A lesser center who was a great defensive player but also scored 20+ ppg was Alonzo Mourning.
                  Alonzo Mourning, drafted 2nd overall, immediately behind another center who gets some consideration when discussing the best player ever.

                  Alonzo Mourining played at all star level until injuries and a very serious medical problem took thier tolls.

                  A great player who would rank no lower than 2 if we were to compare him against today's centers.

                  Giving how high you were on Kanter, another unproven center, are you saying that you envision him and JV to be the 2nd and 3rd best centers in the NBA for years to come? And that includes Drummond, another unproven center who is generally accepted as much better center prospect as either of them?
                  Last edited by Hugmenot; Thu Nov 3, 2011, 11:09 AM.

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                  • #39
                    To be honest I agree with arguements on both sides of this debate. However, we are in a full-out rebuild now. So that means that we keep the most promising players at each position and trade for either draft picks or young developing players. That means that Amir is the odd man out at PF. He is not as good as Bargs, and ED likely will surpass him in 1-2 years.

                    As a fan, I love the way Amir plays. I love watching his hustle, his slow-mo J, and his 2-man game with Jose. But if we have to trade a PF to continue the re-build, than its got to be Amir.
                    Welp, that sucked.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      IMO, Amir is the most expendable from the group of Valanciunas, Davis, Barganani and Amir, from the Raptors' long-term perspective.

                      I have lots of rationale behind this, which I've gone into great detail about it several other threads. Basically, I prefer the individual strengths and overall balance a Val/Ed/Bargnani three-headed monster brings to the table the most, long-term. This is not a knock against Amir.

                      Val - rookie with very high ceiling, could be a stud at both ends of the court (#1 of 4 - potential for great offense & defense)

                      Ed - young/cheap player with higher ceiling than Amir, could become defensive anchor and effective garbage man on offense, with as much hustle (intangibles) as Amir (#2a of 4 - great defense, improving offense)

                      Bargnani - best pure offensive big, can play both positions more effectively than Amir/Ed at this point and just needs a kick in the ass to improve help-defense & rebounding (#2b of 4 - great offense, should improve defense under Casey)

                      Amir - although I think he has good value, I think Val/Ed provide everything he does (both tangible & intangible), at a fraction of the cost; although he is young, his body has taken a beating and he looks like a man much older (in body, not effort); his offensive game is not close to Bargnani's and should be eclipsed by Ed/Val quite soon; fouling is still an issue; basically I think he is the easiest of the four to replace (essentially Val/Ed will replace him internally, without needing to pickup another big)... I would look to trade him now, while his value is at its highest, to help address weaknesses at other positions by acquiring a player and/or draft pick(s) (#4 of 4 - good at offense & defense, but not great at either, with least potential for long-term improvement)
                      Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Thu Nov 3, 2011, 11:24 AM.

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                      • #41
                        Stating an OK player is good enough to be potential starter on a playoff team is not saying much in my opinion. Many playoff teams have holes which can be improved upon by bringing in a marginally better player.

                        Is Amir a finished product? No, in my opinion. I believe there is a good chance his ceiling is higher than what he has shown in 2010-11. Is he good enough to be a starter on a number of playoff teams? Not at this stage of his career in my opinion but I am not certain I will provide the same answer in two years. My guess, and it is just a guess, is that at worst he will be good enough to be the first big off the bench for most playoff team. Very useful player and I see no reason to trade him at this time.

                        Is Andrea a finished product? No, in my opinion, his stats are nowhere close to constants or incremental progressions/regressions. He has non-standard skills for his position (whatever that is) and that makes it more difficult to project his progression. I think he will play a significantly role for a team who needs his specific skill set for years to come, be it with the Raptors or another team. I would not be so quick in pulling the trigger with him if I was Colangelo because none of the projected 3 (or 4 if one believes the Alabi spin) have yet shown the ability to create their own shot or being good scorers. I am not saying the Raptors and any other team absolutely need a good scoring big man, just that I would be hesitant to do so before it's clearer how the other bigs will project.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                          IMO, Amir is the most expendable from the group of Valanciunas, Davis, Barganani and Amir, from the Raptors' long-term perspective.

                          I have lots of rationale behind this, which I've gone into great detail about it several other threads. Basically, I prefer the individual strengths and overall balance a Val/Ed/Bargnani three-headed monster brings to the table the most, long-term. This is not a knock against Amir.

                          Val - rookie with very high ceiling, could be a stud at both ends of the court (#1 of 4 - potential for great offense & defense)

                          Ed - young/cheap player with higher ceiling than Amir, could become defensive anchor and effective garbage man on offense, with as much hustle (intangibles) as Amir (#2a of 4 - great defense, improving offense)

                          Bargnani - best pure offensive big, can play both positions more effectively than Amir/Ed at this point and just needs a kick in the ass to improve help-defense & rebounding (#2b of 4 - great offense, should improve defense under Casey)

                          Amir - although I think he has good value, I think Val/Ed provide everything he does (both tangible & intangible), at a fraction of the cost; although he is young, his body has taken a beating and he looks like a man much older (in body, not effort); his offensive game is not close to Bargnani's and should be eclipsed by Ed/Val quite soon; fouling is still an issue; basically I think he is the easiest of the four to replace (essentially Val/Ed will replace him internally, without needing to pickup another big)... I would look to trade him now, while his value is at its highest, to help address weaknesses at other positions by acquiring a player and/or draft pick(s) (#4 of 4 - good at offense & defense, but not great at either, with least potential for long-term improvement)
                          Really? Funny how neither him, the coach or the GM thinks that.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                            IMO, Amir is the most expendable from the group of Valanciunas, Davis, Barganani and Amir, from the Raptors' long-term perspective.

                            I have lots of rationale behind this, which I've gone into great detail about it several other threads. Basically, I prefer the individual strengths and overall balance a Val/Ed/Bargnani three-headed monster brings to the table the most, long-term. This is not a knock against Amir.
                            I share this assessment if Ed and Jonas develop somewhere in between most likely and best case scenarios. I am not so optimistic about both of them developing along those lines however and would prefer to keep Amir, Andrea, and Ed for at least another season to better assess their potential (and Alabi's too, just to be safe).

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              If I was the gm I'd look to move bargs before I moved Davis, but that's just me. From what I've seen/read it looks like he may move Davis before moving bargnani. Not my choice, but I'm not the gm.

                              There seems to me that their is consensus that Davis is going to surpass Amir in the next year or two. If that is the case how are bargs and Davis, BOTH of whom are legitimate NBA starters going to split the minutes at PF? I don't think Davis will be happy playing as a backup when he knows he'd be a starter on pretty much any other nba team. You could move Bargs to the bench, but then you've got someone making 11 or 12 mil as a bench player. Not very likely.

                              I just don't see how you can keep BOTH Davis and Bargs and play them both as POWER FORWARDS. That's why Amir is NOT the odd man out. He has the contract that allows him to be a back up PF. Even though Davis is almost certain to be better than Amir and barg's is widely seen as better (although I'd still take amir over bargs if I was captain of a pickup game that would determine the fate of humanity) I don't see both coexisting at the same position. Amir on the other hand can be a back up to either, and as far as first big off the bench, you can't do much better than Amir.

                              From what I see Amir's job is safe and it's bargs vs davis to the death. If i'm gm it's time for barg's to pack his bags. but I'm not so we might see Davis on the chopping block. If it is davis we should get something really good for him.
                              "They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014

                              "I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015

                              "We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

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                              • #45
                                Hugmenot wrote: View Post
                                Let's play guess the intruder.

                                Hakeem Olajuwon, drafted 1st overall.
                                Dwight Howard, drafted 1st overall immediately out of high school.
                                Tim Duncan, drafted 1st overall.
                                David Robinson, drafted 1st overall.
                                Patrick Ewing, drafted first overall.
                                Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, drafted 1st overall.
                                Jonas Valanciunas, drafted 5th overall.

                                With the exception of the intruder, all the other centers were certain to go 1st overall with another exception: Hakeem. To Hakeem's defense, 3 other Hall of Famers were drafted in his class, including one which many consider to be the best player to ever play the game.

                                Was the intruder drafted lower because it was very doubtful he could play in the NBA in th eimmediate future? I doubt it as San Antonio has already proven that if a player is good enough, they can draft 1st overall knowing he has first honor a two year commitment to the Navy.

                                Will be intruder be a Hall of Famer? I don't think even his strongest supporters suggest it.

                                A better question would be: will the intruder be a quality starting center? The intruder has show glimpses of being of very useful player but as he has not dominated his competition in Europe, the jury is still out as to how good he will be in the NBA.

                                This craziness about stating he will be a very good starting centers for the Raptors as a fait accompli is just setting yourselves up for further disappointment if he does not measure up to your high expectations.
                                As Nilanka stated, I just brought up those players to show that Valanciunas need not be only a defensive or offensive player. As I stated in the post a couple above yours...
                                I'm not suggesting that Valanciunas is going to become a Hall of Fame player, but simply pointing to the fact that he can be both a good offensive AND defensive player. He certainly has displayed the tools to do so.
                                Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
                                Follow me on Twitter.

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