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The Amir Johnson Conundrum - Gold or Fallacy? Part 2 begins in post 90

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  • #91
    There aren't any reasons right now to move Amir.
    -Val is going to eventually assume the starting role at Centre but that won't be immediate
    -Ed isn't strong enough or experienced enough to start at Centre either. Ed also gets plenty of minutes and will get more as his play improves. Ed is also still on a rookie contract for another year so clearing cap space to pay him isn't an immediate need. We have another year to guage that.
    -If you need clear a spot to make room for a free agent there are a bunch of players to chose from that aren't as productive as Amir. Carter, Forbes etc..
    - He's a serviceable big that has a high motor and huge heart
    - Nobody is requesting him in a trade that would bring anything of value to the team

    Really there aren't any reasons to move him right now imo.

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    • #92
      AS I said before. I don't think Ed will ever reach his "potential". He is very tiny and get pushed around. Amir is cheap, very solid player off the bench. He is big enough to hold is own, he is a great rebounder and pretty good shot blocker. He has improved on his FT % (even though it's down this year) and has proven he can be extremely efficient on offence. Ed IMO will always be the one with more "potential" but I don't see him reaching it.

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      • #93
        bump and merge

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        • #94
          RaptorsFan4Life wrote: View Post
          AS I said before. I don't think Ed will ever reach his "potential". He is very tiny and get pushed around. Amir is cheap, very solid player off the bench. He is big enough to hold is own, he is a great rebounder and pretty good shot blocker. He has improved on his FT % (even though it's down this year) and has proven he can be extremely efficient on offence. Ed IMO will always be the one with more "potential" but I don't see him reaching it.
          I don't get this idea that Ed is small and Amir is big. Right now Ed is not only a bit taller, he is also 22 lbs heavier according to NBA.com. He may not be as strong yet but he will be in about a year and long term may even have the size to guard NBA 5's.
          "Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival."

          -Churchill

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          • #95
            Matt52 wrote: View Post
            bump and merge
            Is that the lastest Dance move all the kids are doing?!

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            • #96
              hateslosing wrote: View Post
              I don't get this idea that Ed is small and Amir is big. Right now Ed is not only a bit taller, he is also 22 lbs heavier according to NBA.com. He may not be as strong yet but he will be in about a year and long term may even have the size to guard NBA 5's.
              And at this stage of their careers, if you give Ed 30+ mins, he'll produce the same stats as if you give Amir 30+ mins, and he's only been in the league for 2 years, while Amir has been playing for 7 years. Doesnt that give Ed more upside than Amir?

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              • #97
                RaptorsFan4Life wrote: View Post
                AS I said before. I don't think Ed will ever reach his "potential". He is very tiny and get pushed around. Amir is cheap, very solid player off the bench. He is big enough to hold is own, he is a great rebounder and pretty good shot blocker. He has improved on his FT % (even though it's down this year) and has proven he can be extremely efficient on offence. Ed IMO will always be the one with more "potential" but I don't see him reaching it.
                IMO, i think Ed could vastly improve given the right training and guidance. Size issues can always be addressed, as evidenced how Bosh transformed himself from being a skinny rookie to a bulky 235. Same with Jermaine O'Neal. And if you look at their stats, theyre very, very similar. Wouldnt you opt to go with a guy who's only played 2 seasons rather than with a guy who's played 7 season but producing the same rate as a 2-year guy? IMO, going with Ed makes more sense, since there's still a vast room for improvement, or call it "potential" if you may.

                And IMO Amir's trade value is pretty much up there, since bigs, for some reason, keep falling here and there. I think teams underestimated the shortened season, there are indeed less games, but more back to backs and back to back to backs. The spurs are resting duncan, celtics are cutting down KGs minutes, etc, etc. Im pretty sure if BC made Amir available, a lot of teams will be calling. If they wait till next year, Amir's value might go down, with JV, Bargnani and potentially Davis eating into his playing time.
                Last edited by TheGloveinRapsUniform; Mon Feb 27, 2012, 06:07 PM.

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                • #98
                  tbihis wrote: View Post
                  IMO, i think Ed could vastly improve given the right training and guidance. Size issues can always be addressed, as evidenced how Bosh transformed himself from being a skinny rookie to a bulky 235. Same with Jermaine O'Neal. And if you look at their stats, theyre very, very similar. Wouldnt you opt to go with a guy who's only played 2 seasons rather than with a guy who's played 7 season but producing the same rate as a 2-year guy? IMO, going with Ed makes more sense, since there's still a vast room for improvement, or call it "potential" if you may.
                  All things considered, yes, it's probably the wiser move to stick with Davis and trade Amir. But there are always variables. And you have to remember that potential is just that. It's not limitless, and it's not guaranteed. The art is in knowing when a player has capped out on his growth, regardless of what 'potential' he had to begin with.

                  - What's the potential return on Amir vs. Ed?
                  - What kind of salary is Davis apt to be looking for at the end of his rookie contract? If it's more than Amir is making, and he's still producing at the same level as Amir, what then?
                  - What other roster moves might be made this season/this summer that would make one or both of them expendable or indispensible?

                  Right now, you probably get less-than-fair value for Amir, and more-than-fair value for Davis (assuming some other team sees the same potential in him that you guys are talking about). So if Ed brings back more than Amir does, and they both provide similar value on the court, then maybe you trade Davis.
                  Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

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                  • #99
                    I have to go with the same view point that there is no real need to move either of them. Depth is not necessarily a bad thing. Right now we have around 16 million designated to the PF position. How many starting PF's in the league make that? Next year when we add Val and if we keep Gray. We will have around 23 million allocated to the PF and C positions. We are looking good in regards of the cap and we will have a high draft pick this year. This team is looking good. We need to find a back up PG and SG for next season and a starting SF.

                    So my vote is to keep them both. I think Amir is better than Ed at the moment, but I think Ed will eventually surpass him. Having Amir around backing up the PF and C positions is a nice leisure to have.

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                    • If I have to pick one or the other, I say Amir should stay. Every good team needs a guy like him. Never once have I doubted his effort and commitment while I do not think I can say the same about Ed.

                      Keep them both though. I do not understand why fans are acting like it is one or the other. Never have I ever heard people complain about too much depth so what is the deal? They both have upside, they both work hard, and when they are both playing their best ball we are a far better team. While this is a far less important point, both have had some history with injury so instead of banking on health to have anything competent in the PF/C spot behind bargs and Val next year, why not keep them both?

                      On another note, I am betting ED leaves the first chance he gets.

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                      • Nilanka wrote: View Post
                        I would think...or at least, I would hope that most readers of this site would agree that not a single player on this roster is good enough to be considered "untouchable" if a trade improves the team in the short AND long term.
                        Bargnani is untouchable ALL STAR caliber player for 10 a year for the next three years
                        For still frame photograph of me reading the DeRozan thread please refer to my avatar

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                        • saints91 wrote: View Post
                          I have to go with the same view point that there is no real need to move either of them. Depth is not necessarily a bad thing. Right now we have around 16 million designated to the PF position. How many starting PF's in the league make that? Next year when we add Val and if we keep Gray. We will have around 23 million allocated to the PF and C positions. We are looking good in regards of the cap and we will have a high draft pick this year. This team is looking good. We need to find a back up PG and SG for next season and a starting SF.

                          So my vote is to keep them both. I think Amir is better than Ed at the moment, but I think Ed will eventually surpass him. Having Amir around backing up the PF and C positions is a nice leisure to have.
                          It makes absolutely no sense to keep both Amir and Davis, to force one of them to be the 3rd string PF.

                          If you determine Davis is #3, you are giving a young guy with lots of potential practically zero opportunity to develop. I'd rather trade him and get something of value back to address a need at another position, instead of letting him rot burried on the bench. He'll have no trade value after a year of rotting.

                          If you determine Amir is #3, that's $6M+ being wasted in a third stringer, which makes no financial sense. Hell, I'd rather amnesty him, so you can spend that $6M to bring in a guy who would actually be used in the main 10-player rotation. I want my $6M investment actually contributing.

                          Bottom line is that with Bargnani starting at PF and Valanciunas/Gray covering the C position, there is insufficient playing time left for one of Amir/Davis (especially when both Kleiza and James Johnson can play PF in a small lineup). Utilize one of those assets to improve the team for both the immediate and long-term.

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                          • I really hate to say it because I love Amir... But Davis has the upside/frame/pedigree and contract in his favour. If traded I hope he ends up in a really good situation for him
                            For still frame photograph of me reading the DeRozan thread please refer to my avatar

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                            • I wouldn't be terribly upset of Amir or Davis (or both) get traded.

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                              • CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
                                It makes absolutely no sense to keep both Amir and Davis, to force one of them to be the 3rd string PF.

                                If you determine Davis is #3, you are giving a young guy with lots of potential practically zero opportunity to develop. I'd rather trade him and get something of value back to address a need at another position, instead of letting him rot burried on the bench. He'll have no trade value after a year of rotting.

                                If you determine Amir is #3, that's $6M+ being wasted in a third stringer, which makes no financial sense. Hell, I'd rather amnesty him, so you can spend that $6M to bring in a guy who would actually be used in the main 10-player rotation. I want my $6M investment actually contributing.

                                Bottom line is that with Bargnani starting at PF and Valanciunas/Gray covering the C position, there is insufficient playing time left for one of Amir/Davis (especially when both Kleiza and James Johnson can play PF in a small lineup). Utilize one of those assets to improve the team for both the immediate and long-term.
                                That's a very reasonable argument if your assumption (Gary being 2nd center) is correct.

                                I am not sold yet on Gray being the primary backup center nor on JV being able to handle 24+ mpg starting next year so I don't have the same sense of urgency. I believe the issue will need to be addressed but my timeline is more generous, 1 to 1 1/2 year before it becomes an imperative.

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