The Amir Johnson Conundrum - Gold or Fallacy? Part 2 begins in post 90

[Hugmenot]

Stating an OK player is good enough to be potential starter on a playoff team is not saying much in my opinion. Many playoff teams have holes which can be improved upon by bringing in a marginally better player.

Is Amir a finished product? No, in my opinion. I believe there is a good chance his ceiling is higher than what he has shown in 2010-11. Is he good enough to be a starter on a number of playoff teams? Not at this stage of his career in my opinion but I am not certain I will provide the same answer in two years. My guess, and it is just a guess, is that at worst he will be good enough to be the first big off the bench for most playoff team. Very useful player and I see no reason to trade him at this time.

Is Andrea a finished product? No, in my opinion, his stats are nowhere close to constants or incremental progressions/regressions. He has non-standard skills for his position (whatever that is) and that makes it more difficult to project his progression. I think he will play a significantly role for a team who needs his specific skill set for years to come, be it with the Raptors or another team. I would not be so quick in pulling the trigger with him if I was Colangelo because none of the projected 3 (or 4 if one believes the Alabi spin) have yet shown the ability to create their own shot or being good scorers. I am not saying the Raptors and any other team absolutely need a good scoring big man, just that I would be hesitant to do so before it's clearer how the other bigs will project.

[GarbageTime]

IMO, Amir is the most expendable from the group of Valanciunas, Davis, Barganani and Amir, from the Raptors' long-term perspective.

I have lots of rationale behind this, which I've gone into great detail about it several other threads. Basically, I prefer the individual strengths and overall balance a Val/Ed/Bargnani three-headed monster brings to the table the most, long-term. This is not a knock against Amir.

Val - rookie with very high ceiling, could be a stud at both ends of the court (#1 of 4 - potential for great offense & defense)

Ed - young/cheap player with higher ceiling than Amir, could become defensive anchor and effective garbage man on offense, with as much hustle (intangibles) as Amir (#2a of 4 - great defense, improving offense)

Bargnani - best pure offensive big, can play both positions more effectively than Amir/Ed at this point and just needs a kick in the ass to improve help-defense & rebounding (#2b of 4 - great offense, should improve defense under Casey)

Amir - although I think he has good value, I think Val/Ed provide everything he does (both tangible & intangible), at a fraction of the cost; although he is young, his body has taken a beating and he looks like a man much older (in body, not effort); his offensive game is not close to Bargnani's and should be eclipsed by Ed/Val quite soon; fouling is still an issue; basically I think he is the easiest of the four to replace (essentially Val/Ed will replace him internally, without needing to pickup another big)... I would look to trade him now, while his value is at its highest, to help address weaknesses at other positions by acquiring a player and/or draft pick(s) (#4 of 4 - good at offense & defense, but not great at either, with least potential for long-term improvement)

Really? Funny how neither him, the coach or the GM thinks that.

[Hugmenot]

IMO, Amir is the most expendable from the group of Valanciunas, Davis, Barganani and Amir, from the Raptors' long-term perspective.

I have lots of rationale behind this, which I've gone into great detail about it several other threads. Basically, I prefer the individual strengths and overall balance a Val/Ed/Bargnani three-headed monster brings to the table the most, long-term. This is not a knock against Amir.

I share this assessment if Ed and Jonas develop somewhere in between most likely and best case scenarios. I am not so optimistic about both of them developing along those lines however and would prefer to keep Amir, Andrea, and Ed for at least another season to better assess their potential (and Alabi's too, just to be safe).

[ezz_bee]

If I was the gm I'd look to move bargs before I moved Davis, but that's just me. From what I've seen/read it looks like he may move Davis before moving bargnani. Not my choice, but I'm not the gm.

There seems to me that their is consensus that Davis is going to surpass Amir in the next year or two. If that is the case how are bargs and Davis, BOTH of whom are legitimate NBA starters going to split the minutes at PF? I don't think Davis will be happy playing as a backup when he knows he'd be a starter on pretty much any other nba team. You could move Bargs to the bench, but then you've got someone making 11 or 12 mil as a bench player. Not very likely.

I just don't see how you can keep BOTH Davis and Bargs and play them both as POWER FORWARDS. That's why Amir is NOT the odd man out. He has the contract that allows him to be a back up PF. Even though Davis is almost certain to be better than Amir and barg's is widely seen as better (although I'd still take amir over bargs if I was captain of a pickup game that would determine the fate of humanity) I don't see both coexisting at the same position. Amir on the other hand can be a back up to either, and as far as first big off the bench, you can't do much better than Amir.

From what I see Amir's job is safe and it's bargs vs davis to the death. If i'm gm it's time for barg's to pack his bags. but I'm not so we might see Davis on the chopping block. If it is davis we should get something really good for him.

[Tim W.]

Let's play guess the intruder.

Hakeem Olajuwon, drafted 1st overall.
Dwight Howard, drafted 1st overall immediately out of high school.
Tim Duncan, drafted 1st overall.
David Robinson, drafted 1st overall.
Patrick Ewing, drafted first overall.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, drafted 1st overall.
Jonas Valanciunas, drafted 5th overall.

With the exception of the intruder, all the other centers were certain to go 1st overall with another exception: Hakeem. To Hakeem's defense, 3 other Hall of Famers were drafted in his class, including one which many consider to be the best player to ever play the game.

Was the intruder drafted lower because it was very doubtful he could play in the NBA in th eimmediate future? I doubt it as San Antonio has already proven that if a player is good enough, they can draft 1st overall knowing he has first honor a two year commitment to the Navy.

Will be intruder be a Hall of Famer? I don't think even his strongest supporters suggest it.

A better question would be: will the intruder be a quality starting center? The intruder has show glimpses of being of very useful player but as he has not dominated his competition in Europe, the jury is still out as to how good he will be in the NBA.

This craziness about stating he will be a very good starting centers for the Raptors as a fait accompli is just setting yourselves up for further disappointment if he does not measure up to your high expectations.

As Nilanka stated, I just brought up those players to show that Valanciunas need not be only a defensive or offensive player. As I stated in the post a couple above yours...

I'm not suggesting that Valanciunas is going to become a Hall of Fame player, but simply pointing to the fact that he can be both a good offensive AND defensive player. He certainly has displayed the tools to do so.

[Matt52]

If I was the gm I'd look to move bargs before I moved Davis, but that's just me. From what I've seen/read it looks like he may move Davis before moving bargnani. Not my choice, but I'm not the gm.

There seems to me that their is consensus that Davis is going to surpass Amir in the next year or two. If that is the case how are bargs and Davis, BOTH of whom are legitimate NBA starters going to split the minutes at PF? I don't think Davis will be happy playing as a backup when he knows he'd be a starter on pretty much any other nba team. You could move Bargs to the bench, but then you've got someone making 11 or 12 mil as a bench player. Not very likely.

I just don't see how you can keep BOTH Davis and Bargs and play them both as POWER FORWARDS. That's why Amir is NOT the odd man out. He has the contract that allows him to be a back up PF. Even though Davis is almost certain to be better than Amir and barg's is widely seen as better (although I'd still take amir over bargs if I was captain of a pickup game that would determine the fate of humanity) I don't see both coexisting at the same position. Amir on the other hand can be a back up to either, and as far as first big off the bench, you can't do much better than Amir.

From what I see Amir's job is safe and it's bargs vs davis to the death. If i'm gm it's time for barg's to pack his bags. but I'm not so we might see Davis on the chopping block. If it is davis we should get something really good for him.

Great points.

If ED could develop any an offensive game, good bye Andrea.

It is crazy how the fate of Bargnani, ED, Amir, and Alabi are all dependent on this year.

Also, with Casey and BC both talking about adding another C.... where are all the minutes going to come from?

[Tim W.]

Alonzo Mourning, drafted 2nd overall, immediately behind another center who gets some consideration when discussing the best player ever.

Alonzo Mourining played at all star level until injuries and a very serious medical problem took thier tolls.

A great player who would rank no lower than 2 if we were to compare him against today's centers.

Giving how high you were on Kanter, another unproven center, are you saying that you envision him and JV to be the 2nd and 3rd best centers in the NBA for years to come? And that includes Drummond, another unproven center who is generally accepted as much better center prospect as either of them?

I'm not envisioning him to be ANYTHING. Simply stating that he has shown the potential to be a good two way player. That's all. I brought up those players as extreme examples, showing that a player can be great on both ends of the court. He need not focus on one side or the other. If you want to take something else from my comments, feel free. Just don't expect me to run with it.

[Tim W.]

To be honest I agree with arguements on both sides of this debate. However, we are in a full-out rebuild now. So that means that we keep the most promising players at each position and trade for either draft picks or young developing players. That means that Amir is the odd man out at PF. He is not as good as Bargs, and ED likely will surpass him in 1-2 years.

The notion that one player is "better" than another, so you keep the better player is flawed. Bargnani is certainly more offensively skilled that Amir. No question about that. But Amir is more skilled in the areas of defense, rebounding and hustle (which is a skill, just ask Pat Riley). And Amir is more productive and seems to have a more positive impact on the team when he's on the floor than Bargnani does.

Bargnani is a rarer talent, as well, but that's also a flawed argument. Rarer doesn't necessarily mean better.

IMO, Amir is the most expendable from the group of Valanciunas, Davis, Barganani and Amir, from the Raptors' long-term perspective.

I have lots of rationale behind this, which I've gone into great detail about it several other threads. Basically, I prefer the individual strengths and overall balance a Val/Ed/Bargnani three-headed monster brings to the table the most, long-term. This is not a knock against Amir.

Val - rookie with very high ceiling, could be a stud at both ends of the court (#1 of 4 - potential for great offense & defense)

Ed - young/cheap player with higher ceiling than Amir, could become defensive anchor and effective garbage man on offense, with as much hustle (intangibles) as Amir (#2a of 4 - great defense, improving offense)

Bargnani - best pure offensive big, can play both positions more effectively than Amir/Ed at this point and just needs a kick in the ass to improve help-defense & rebounding (#2b of 4 - great offense, should improve defense under Casey)

Amir - although I think he has good value, I think Val/Ed provide everything he does (both tangible & intangible), at a fraction of the cost; although he is young, his body has taken a beating and he looks like a man much older (in body, not effort); his offensive game is not close to Bargnani's and should be eclipsed by Ed/Val quite soon; fouling is still an issue; basically I think he is the easiest of the four to replace (essentially Val/Ed will replace him internally, without needing to pickup another big)... I would look to trade him now, while his value is at its highest, to help address weaknesses at other positions by acquiring a player and/or draft pick(s) (#4 of 4 - good at offense & defense, but not great at either, with least potential for long-term improvement)

Valanciunas and Davis provide what they do at a fraction of the cost BECAUSE THEY'RE ON THEIR ROOKIE CONTRACTS!!!! And just because Bargnani provides something the other players don't doesn't make him more valuable. He also doesn't provide something that is generally necessary for winning basketball.

And why exactly "should" Bargnani's defense improve under Casey? What reasonable argument to have that offsets 5 years of history? That he just needs a kick in the butt? Is that really the type of player you want on a team? Someone who REQUIRES to be ridden in order for him not to be a liability? And what happens in a year or two, when, most likely, Bargnani is still a poor rebounder and defensive player, yet is making $10, $11 and $12 million? I mean, he's got four more years on his contract and $42 million left. All for a player who is literally a liability half the time he's on the court. Meanwhile, Amir has four more years and only $25 million left. And he's actually MORE productive (overall) than Bargnani, he's younger and he doesn't need to be babysat.

[Tim W.]

If I was the gm I'd look to move bargs before I moved Davis, but that's just me. From what I've seen/read it looks like he may move Davis before moving bargnani. Not my choice, but I'm not the gm.

There seems to me that their is consensus that Davis is going to surpass Amir in the next year or two. If that is the case how are bargs and Davis, BOTH of whom are legitimate NBA starters going to split the minutes at PF? I don't think Davis will be happy playing as a backup when he knows he'd be a starter on pretty much any other nba team. You could move Bargs to the bench, but then you've got someone making 11 or 12 mil as a bench player. Not very likely.

I just don't see how you can keep BOTH Davis and Bargs and play them both as POWER FORWARDS. That's why Amir is NOT the odd man out. He has the contract that allows him to be a back up PF. Even though Davis is almost certain to be better than Amir and barg's is widely seen as better (although I'd still take amir over bargs if I was captain of a pickup game that would determine the fate of humanity) I don't see both coexisting at the same position. Amir on the other hand can be a back up to either, and as far as first big off the bench, you can't do much better than Amir.

From what I see Amir's job is safe and it's bargs vs davis to the death. If i'm gm it's time for barg's to pack his bags. but I'm not so we might see Davis on the chopping block. If it is davis we should get something really good for him.

Excellent point. Bargnani has shown not to be effective coming off the bench, and if you want to keep Davis, you pretty much need to start him. Amir, on the other hand, can be effective on or off the bench and is signed long term.

If it's a choice between Davis and Bargnani, you choose the player who has the most potential, and that's Davis.

[Hugmenot]

I'm not envisioning him to be ANYTHING. Simply stating that he has shown the potential to be a good two way player. That's all. I brought up those players as extreme examples, showing that a player can be great on both ends of the court. He need not focus on one side or the other. If you want to take something else from my comments, feel free. Just don't expect me to run with it.

Sure, if you say so.

It may have been much more appropriate to compare him to an active center who, in your opinion, plays well enough (whatever that means) on both sides of the ball.

Andrew Bogut or Marc Gasol for example.

I would be (gladly) surprised if JV ever becomes as good as them. I don't think it's impossible, just that it's unlikely in my opinion.

[Nilanka]

It might've been the interview with Devlin, but at some point Stefanski mentioned that he's a fan of "analytics". If this is true, and his voice is loud enough within the war room to be heard, then goodbye Bargnani.

[Tim W.]

Sure, if you say so.

It may have been much more appropriate to compare him to an active center who, in your opinion, plays well enough (whatever that means) on both sides of the ball.

Andrew Bogut or Marc Gasol for example.

I would be (gladly) surprised if JV ever becomes as good as them. I don't think it's impossible, just that it's unlikely in my opinion.

You obviously don't think a lot of Valanciunas if you would be surprised if he even becomes a borderline All-Star. I'm not saying I'm expecting it, but there's a big difference between being surprised if something happens and expecting it.

And I used those examples because they were 20+ppg scorers and were All-Defensive big men, meaning it's possible to be both.

[Tim W.]

It might've been the interview with Devlin, but at some point Stefanski mentioned that he's a fan of "analytics". If this is true, and his voice is loud enough within the war room to be heard, then goodbye Bargnani.

Then Amir isn't going anywhere.

[er1csh3n]

There are plenty of starters on "good" playoff teams (and even Championship calibre clubs) that do not meet your criteria, both historically and in the short term. You don't need five stars for starters to be successful, and I'd even argue that you're better off having a few "glue guys" sprinkled in the starting line up to help with on court chemistry. Building a winning team isn't like throwing a fantasy basketball team together. There's more to it then assembling the five guys with the best statistics - the pieces need to fit.

Keith Bogans started in Chicago last season for number one seed in the playoffs. DeShawn Stevenson in Dallas. Zaza Pachulia in Atlanta. Tony Allen in Memphis. And those are just off the top of my head from last season. I'd lump Amir in with a group like that because he's shown a willingness to do the dirty work, doesn't need plays run for him on O, crashes the boards, sets screens, etc. He's even showing his ability to knock down the elbow jumper. Personally I think he'd be most valuable on a contending team because he'd be able to stick to his strengths and not asked to do too much on the offensive end.

Yes, but wouldn't you rather have a balanced PF/C, I know not every playoff or championship had a team of balanced skill set of players, but they complimented each other, with the core we have going forward, we could definitely benefit from an added offense from Johnson, because we aren't even good at offense anymore.

[Hugmenot]

It might've been the interview with Devlin, but at some point Stefanski mentioned that he's a fan of "analytics". If this is true, and his voice is loud enough within the war room to be heard, then goodbye Bargnani.

The problem with this statement is the analytics data we (fans) have access to is summarized general data and nowhere close enough to be detailed enough to make really informed decision.

Teams have access to game footage (from more than one angle I assume) and are able to answer much more precise questions. For example, if the PG is currently handling the ball in a set offense, what is the likelihood the recipient of his pass has an open look? But that's just a somewhat silly example because it does not even attempt to adress why the player was open in the first place.

The real difficulty lies in determining the questions which have a significant impact on the game.

[NoPropsneeded]

IMO Bargnani should go before Amir. Ed and Amir at the 4 is a lot more rebounding and defense, and i think Ed will improve into that inside scoring presence we need. But most of our scoring will most likely come from DeMar and Bayless so bargnani really should get traded for the best available trade. Possibly for a lottery pick and 1 or 2 decent role players

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Really? Funny how neither him, the coach or the GM thinks that.

I meant that Val is a C, Ed & Amir are PF, but Bargnani is the only one who could play either positions, depending which other big is on the court with him. Ed & Amir are undersized to play C (except when both teams are playing small), so Bargnani's positional flexibility is an added pro in his favor.

[Hugmenot]

You obviously don't think a lot of Valanciunas if you would be surprised if he even becomes a borderline All-Star. I'm not saying I'm expecting it, but there's a big difference between being surprised if something happens and expecting it.

And me to counter you obviously don't think a lot of Marc Gasol and Andrew Bogut if it would not surprise you at all the 5th player taken in a weak draft can become as good as them.

Propsects are just that prospects and you can't always be sure how they will turn out except in a very few exceptional cases. And there is no way JV is one of the latter as neither the mock draft expects nor the GM actually making the picks labelled him as a surefire can't miss prospect.

Gasol and Bogut are of known quality and I would be very happy with either of them as the Raptors starting center.

And I used those examples because they were 20+ppg scorers and were All-Defensive big men, meaning it's possible to be both.

Except all the players you listed were recognized as unique can't miss talent, something Jonas is not.

Name one center who averaged those numbers but was not labelled as a can't miss prospect.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

If I was the gm I'd look to move bargs before I moved Davis, but that's just me. From what I've seen/read it looks like he may move Davis before moving bargnani. Not my choice, but I'm not the gm.

There seems to me that their is consensus that Davis is going to surpass Amir in the next year or two. If that is the case how are bargs and Davis, BOTH of whom are legitimate NBA starters going to split the minutes at PF? I don't think Davis will be happy playing as a backup when he knows he'd be a starter on pretty much any other nba team. You could move Bargs to the bench, but then you've got someone making 11 or 12 mil as a bench player. Not very likely.

I just don't see how you can keep BOTH Davis and Bargs and play them both as POWER FORWARDS. That's why Amir is NOT the odd man out. He has the contract that allows him to be a back up PF. Even though Davis is almost certain to be better than Amir and barg's is widely seen as better (although I'd still take amir over bargs if I was captain of a pickup game that would determine the fate of humanity) I don't see both coexisting at the same position. Amir on the other hand can be a back up to either, and as far as first big off the bench, you can't do much better than Amir.

From what I see Amir's job is safe and it's bargs vs davis to the death. If i'm gm it's time for barg's to pack his bags. but I'm not so we might see Davis on the chopping block. If it is davis we should get something really good for him.

If you look at C/PF as a 3-player rotation, rather than 4 (starter/backup at each position), then there would be plenty of time to spread between Val/Ed/Bargnani. Val is a C, Ed is a PF and Bargnani could spend time at both positions. That's another advantage he has over Amir, IMO, to be the #3 big on the team. He might be a little pricey for a #3 big, but when #1 & #2 are both on rookie-scale contracts and consider that in games when Bargnani is "on" he could likely play the most mintues of the 3 bigs, then I don't think it's too bad at all.

[Nilanka]

I meant that Val is a C, Ed & Amir are PF, but Bargnani is the only one who could play either positions, depending which other big is on the court with him. Ed & Amir are undersized to play C (except when both teams are playing small), so Bargnani's positional flexibility is an added pro in his favor.

Should we really consider it a "pro" if Bargnani can't rebound and/or protect the rim (2 qualities that would be required from either the PF or C positions)? He doesn't play either position particularly well.