Of the top 4 teams in each conference (last season), here are the numbers (along with relevant Raptor numbers:
- Team scoring average - 100 points
- Front Court points - 58.5
- Toronto scoring average - 99.1 points
- Toronto - Front Court - 55.0
If the main trio of Bigs for Toronto is Jonas, Ed and Amir - as some suggest - here is how it would have to play out (on a game by game basis):
To make my point, I've made some assumptions:
- Jonas + Ed + Amir = 86 minutes
- Jonas & Ed - 60 minutes
- Amir - 26 minutes
- Amir's Scoring - 10 ppg (based on last year's number playing 25.7 min/game - 9.6 ppg)
- Balance of Bigs court time - 10.4 minutes (counting 0.4 min/game of overtime)
- Balance of Bigs scoring - 3.5 points (based on League type numbers)
- SF Scoring - 17 points (Toronto was 16.5 last year - Lakers were 14.4)
In this scenario, the Starting Bigs would need to put up 28 points per game, and provide the Defense that makes them the reason for being there (as opposed to having Andrea).
- 11.5 ppg for Jonas would put him amongst the top 15 Centres (for scoring). Marc Gasol was 31.9 min & 11.7 ppg.
- 16.5 ppg for Davis would put him amongst the top 15 Power Forwards (for scoring).
To me, it doesn't sound reasonable - in fact, it's more like Maple Leaf fans jumping on a 8-3-1 record, and arranging the parade already.
It's possible Ed Davis becomes a 20 ppg guy, but that implies he'll be a top 5 PF in the league. That's putting some lofty hopes on players that don't deserve to be put in such a position. This also is predicated on the Starting SF putting up 14 points per game (or thereabouts).
Once these players start putting up bigger numbers, Opponent defenses will focus in better. That will impact efficiency, as well as energy left for the defensive end.
As such, I believe you need a Bargnani in the mix. His role may reflect what we hope is as a Contender in 4 - 5 years, where a new contract reflects the 6 man scenario. Or he may get it (in time), and become that PF we'd hope he could be.
Either way, we're not about to be a Contender in the next 2 or 3 years. Possibly a good team, but not one that will have it all. That takes experience and Leadership - and this team is too young at this time. If you look at a championship team like Dallas, most of their key players were over 30 (with Chandler 28 - closer to 29)