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Chisholm: What to do about the C position? Forget Tyson Chandler (212)

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  • Tim W. wrote: View Post
    Well, yes, Dwayne Wade was actually picked 5th.

    And I never said that after 5 they level off, I said this...
    I didnt say you said after the top 5 picks level off. I was the one who said after the top 5, picks level out. And then you disagreed with me, but used, as your example, a top 5 pick that was better than a not top 5 pick. Which was silly.

    If you disagree, fine, but there's no point using the example of Dwyane Wade to argue against what I said, when what I said was basically: since we won't be picking in the top 5 anyway, and after the top 5 picks level out, we might as well pursue a good centre.


    In other words, if you're drafting outside of the top ten, the chances of finding an elite player is incredibly small, and the chances are even smaller of finding one in the NCAA, where presumably you can get a better look at them than elsewhere.
    See, here we have a concrete disagreement. You think it's the top 10 that matters, I think it's the top 5. I mostly base my view on information like this:
    http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

    Looking at the numbers, there is a much bigger drop off between the top 5 and picks 6-10 than there is between picks 6-10 vs. the rest of the lottery.
    As for the injuries, it's all well and good to get into the conspiracy theories, but a few things wrong with it. The first is that Colangelo isn't going to fire Triano as coach after making him throw games.
    Maybe that's why Triano seemed so surprised. Seriously, this is a very, very weak argument.
    Secondly, and more importantly, it's pretty common knowledge that pretty much all those players were, in fact, injured (including Barbosa, who needed "surgery").

    Besides, it's pretty common for teams, especially teams out of the playoff hunt, to experiment with lineups in the last couple of weeks to take an extra long look at some players who haven't played yet. ALL the teams do it.

    Most importantly, take a look at their month by month record...
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...R/2011/splits/

    It's not as if they finished the season of any worse than normal. Wouldn't that be a necessity if you want to tank?
    Look at their schedule in April. It was extremely weak. Their only 2 wins were over New Jersey and Orlando. New Jersey was Playing an even worse roster without Deron Williams. And the Orlando win: it just goes to show that even the Raptors bench players are in the NBA for a reason: the raptors win was surprising to say the least, given the lineups they used (see popcornmachine.net for details).

    I'm not a mind reader: I don't know for sure when or if Bryan instructed Triano to sit people. But the lineups Toronto played in April were NOT conducive to winning, and it strains credulity that Bargnani, Johnson, Barbosa, Evans, and Calderon were all unable to play simultaneously.

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    • GarbageTime wrote: View Post
      you have quickly become quite a Bargnani optimist Matt. Don't worry there will always be room for you on Bargnani pessimist train... need to make new seats every couple months anyways.
      People are so negative on him. Group think is a dangerous thing.

      I also don't expect a single 'bad' team to be willing to trade/move/swing 2012 picks... they will be horded and in high demand. Especially not Charlotte. I think they made it clear this past draft they are taking the 'OKC' approach. Short of something magical happening, like Biyombo and Kemba battling out for rookie of the year honours, they will be the worst team in the league.
      You are probably correct.... but you never know what Jordan will do given an opportunity to save $9M.

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      • Matt52 wrote: View Post
        People are so negative on him. Group think is a dangerous thing.



        You are probably correct.... but you never know what Jordan will do given an opportunity to save $9M.
        not sure thinking Bargnani is going to turn it around is any different. Just trading one group for another.

        But group thinking is only dangerous if you do it simply to be part of the group or because its just easier to do it... not if its because its something you actually believe it.

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        • GarbageTime wrote: View Post
          not sure thinking Bargnani is going to turn it around is any different. Just trading one group for another.

          But group thinking is only dangerous if you do it simply to be part of the group or because its just easier to do it... not if its because its something you actually believe it.

          An overwhelming majority appear to have given up on him. Back to the stock market analogy, when the majority think one thing will happen the other usually does.

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          • malefax wrote: View Post
            I didnt say you said after the top 5 picks level off. I was the one who said after the top 5, picks level out. And then you disagreed with me, but used, as your example, a top 5 pick that was better than a not top 5 pick. Which was silly.

            If you disagree, fine, but there's no point using the example of Dwyane Wade to argue against what I said, when what I said was basically: since we won't be picking in the top 5 anyway, and after the top 5 picks level out, we might as well pursue a good centre.
            I'm a little confused. I mentioned Dwyane Wade because you did. I thought you were insinuating that Wade was not picked in the top five.


            malefax wrote: View Post
            See, here we have a concrete disagreement. You think it's the top 10 that matters, I think it's the top 5. I mostly base my view on information like this:
            http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

            Looking at the numbers, there is a much bigger drop off between the top 5 and picks 6-10 than there is between picks 6-10 vs. the rest of the lottery.
            I think we're actually arguing the same thing, here. I meant to say top five in my comment, which is what I had been arguing in my comment I quoted. My whole point is that if you're not in the top five, your chances lot finding a franchise player is EXTREMELY slim.

            malefax wrote: View Post
            Maybe that's why Triano seemed so surprised. Seriously, this is a very, very weak argument.
            This coming from the person who thinks a coach tanked despite no evidence to support that argument?

            malefax wrote: View Post
            Look at their schedule in April. It was extremely weak. Their only 2 wins were over New Jersey and Orlando. New Jersey was Playing an even worse roster without Deron Williams. And the Orlando win: it just goes to show that even the Raptors bench players are in the NBA for a reason: the raptors win was surprising to say the least, given the lineups they used (see popcornmachine.net for details).

            I'm not a mind reader: I don't know for sure when or if Bryan instructed Triano to sit people. But the lineups Toronto played in April were NOT conducive to winning, and it strains credulity that Bargnani, Johnson, Barbosa, Evans, and Calderon were all unable to play simultaneously.
            As I said, have you watched other lottery teams at the end of the season? They all do that. They give the guys they've been relying heavily on a rest and take a looko at some of the guys who haven't played much. It's not only common, it's pretty much the norm.

            And again, I'm not sure how you can claim that any of those players weren't injured. Both Amir and Barbosa needed surgery. Calderon had missed time earlier and was struggling to recover. We actually saw Evans get hurt. As for Bargnani, I don't know, but it's not as if he has a positive presence on the flor, anyway.
            Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
            Follow me on Twitter.

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            • Matt52 wrote: View Post
              An overwhelming majority appear to have given up on him. Back to the stock market analogy, when the majority think one thing will happen the other usually does.
              Unfortunately, Bargnani is not a stock market. The stock market is (so far) infinite and influenced by countless things. If confidence didn't return, then the world economy would collapse. Just out of interest, how's your confidence in Joey Graham? Probably at an all time low, which means he's going to shock everyone, right?
              Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
              Follow me on Twitter.

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              • Tim W. wrote: View Post
                Unfortunately, Bargnani is not a stock market. The stock market is (so far) infinite and influenced by countless things. If confidence didn't return, then the world economy would collapse. Just out of interest, how's your confidence in Joey Graham? Probably at an all time low, which means he's going to shock everyone, right?
                Tim, I've already said on numerous occasions history is not on my side for my opinion. I have a different opinion that I have said is not backed by his NBA career thus far. I've given my reasons why. I'm not forcing my opinions on you or anyone else to accept them. I realize how ridiculous the proposition of Bargnani managing David West/Nene like rebounding and average defense with another true C as the last line of defense for the team. We all know how you feel about Bargnani however not everyone needs to share your opinion despite how right you claim to be and likely are.

                If the Raptors get a true C this year (Chandler, Gasol) then I stand by my comments and the rationale behind them.

                If the Raptors do not I hope they trade him as soon as possible.

                Comment


                • Tim W. wrote: View Post

                  I think we're actually arguing the same thing, here. I meant to say top five in my comment, which is what I had been arguing in my comment I quoted. My whole point is that if you're not in the top five, your chances lot finding a franchise player is EXTREMELY slim.
                  while the chances may be reduced, i cant count with both my hands the number of scrubs that were drafted in the top five aswell..
                  alot of teams have done very well for themselves drafting late in the first round.... it all comes down to scouting..

                  Kobe Bryant waas drafted 13th sooo it can happen

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                  • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                    An overwhelming majority appear to have given up on him. Back to the stock market analogy, when the majority think one thing will happen the other usually does.
                    thats not exactly true.....

                    the anaolgy you are using refers to the best/worst time one tends to get value for your asset.

                    So Bargnani would be a stock that is already owned... not one the team is looking to buy. So right now may not be the best time to sell him, but that also doesn't mean that you therefore consider him part of the long (or even short) term portfolio. Beyond that, it also doesn't mean that selling him for another 'cheap' stock doesn't offer even better value either long or short term.

                    Ironically enough, I'd also say if we were to use your analogy, right now is the worst time to 'buy' Chandler, as his stock is as high as ever and the majority (even beyond Raps fans but a much more macro view of the league itself) seem to think he would be a great addition....... in fact the best bet would be to start Bargnani at C as everyone is down on that......

                    One really needs to look at the value of individual stock itself. Its why people lost fortunes on RIM, YellowPages, WaMu etc. even though 'everyone was down on them' and they were incredibly cheap compared to their historic value. The first question to ask is 'why is everyone down on them'?, then ask what value do they offer vs another stock/bond vs staying in cash?

                    Comment


                    • Tim W. wrote: View Post
                      Unfortunately, Bargnani is not a stock market. The stock market is (so far) infinite and influenced by countless things. If confidence didn't return, then the world economy would collapse. Just out of interest, how's your confidence in Joey Graham? Probably at an all time low, which means he's going to shock everyone, right?
                      I actually wish BC treated this team more like a long term value investor than a short term trader.....

                      Comment


                      • GarbageTime wrote: View Post
                        thats not exactly true.....

                        the anaolgy you are using refers to the best/worst time one tends to get value for your asset.

                        So Bargnani would be a stock that is already owned... not one the team is looking to buy. So right now may not be the best time to sell him, but that also doesn't mean that you therefore consider him part of the long (or even short) term portfolio. Beyond that, it also doesn't mean that selling him for another 'cheap' stock doesn't offer even better value either long or short term.

                        Ironically enough, I'd also say if we were to use your analogy, right now is the worst time to 'buy' Chandler, as his stock is as high as ever and the majority (even beyond Raps fans but a much more macro view of the league itself) seem to think he would be a great addition....... in fact the best bet would be to start Bargnani at C as everyone is down on that......

                        One really needs to look at the value of individual stock itself. Its why people lost fortunes on RIM, YellowPages, WaMu etc. even though 'everyone was down on them' and they were incredibly cheap compared to their historic value. The first question to ask is 'why is everyone down on them'?, then ask what value do they offer vs another stock/bond vs staying in cash?
                        It is clear fundamental analysis is the basis of your investing views. Personally, my investing/trading is based on technical analysis.

                        The stock market is based on mass psychology. It is the meeting place of buyers and sellers of securities.

                        The point I tried to make was market indices typically bottom on bad news. We know everything bad about Bargnani and quite frankly it would be difficult to imagine things getting worse.

                        My opinion, and it is nothing more, is that he is going to surprise a lot of people. I said in the original post bring on the ridicule.... so be it.

                        Comment


                        • GarbageTime wrote: View Post
                          I actually wish BC treated this team more like a long term value investor than a short term trader.....
                          Take a look at the chart of the S&P500, Dow, or Nasdaq over the last 12 years and you might rethink that statement.

                          Comment


                          • Everybody put down the pitchforks and torches!

                            Via Tim Chisholm twitter:

                            @timpchisholm Tim Chisholm
                            Plot thickens @TedMaduri: @timpchisholm BC indicated at season ticketholder event today that there's ~ zero chance they go after Chandler.

                            Comment


                            • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                              Ed Davis had a good rookie year but the reality is he averaged 7/7 on a sh!t team. Down the stretch he averaged 10/8. He is going to be a good player but I do not think All-Star.

                              The whole topic of discussion has been how deep the 2012 draft is. If adding Chandler is only going to add 10 wins (82 game season talk) then the Raptors are still picking 7-10 range. Then the Detroit/Charlotte/Cleveland pick is sure to be lottery as well... to be honest I am honest on the Philly trade because I think they could make the playoffs again. Having 2 lottery picks in a stacked draft would be a good thing, no?
                              sweet jeebuz, matt...IMO, Ed's already a more valuable commodity (if not outright better player) than all those guys. looking at straight stats is a foolish move, IMO, just like looking at bargs' 20ppg & thinking he's an MVP candidate. i agree, he put up 'poor' stats on a shit team, but that's not the reality of the situation (or at least, it's not the whole reality). remember...hurt for the start of the year...no training camp...young rookie...new country...team in flux...overloaded (at times) frontcourt. not the best situation to step into. i think he did quite admirably. perhaps if he'd gotten some all-rookie dap, you'd think differently?

                              who cares if he's ever going to be an all-star? it's amazing, we bag the crap out of the all-star game, complain that who gets voted in by the fans is retarded & who gets picked by the coaches just as bad...and yet, we somehow always fall back on that 'honour' to determine a player's potential future value? the team was shit, and there was a reason, but it wasn't Ed.
                              TRUE LOVE - Sometimes you know it the instant you see it across the bar.

                              Comment


                              • Matt52 wrote: View Post
                                Take a look at the chart of the S&P500, Dow, or Nasdaq over the last 12 years and you might rethink that statement.
                                and over 20 years? 30 years? 40 years? 50 years? Its not hard to pick a convient point in time in the stock market and say 'hey look at what its done since then'. Nor does it indicate when a investor decided was a good time to get in or out of a stock (or the stock market in general)

                                A traders goal is, at the most basic level, to make a quick buck. An investors goal, at the most basic level, is to preserve and grow wealth. Thats why I want my teams GM to be an investor and not a trader. Long term winning > short term winning.

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