The idea of us going into the draft with 2 first round picks as well as a second round pick and still have enough cap space to sign a D. Will or D. Howard type player is difficult to fathom. Dream big or don't dream at all I suppose.Matt52 wrote:
The idea of us going into the draft with 2 first round picks as well as a second round pick and still have enough cap space to sign a D. Will or D. Howard type player is difficult to fathom. Dream big or don't dream at all I suppose.
I was at one time worried about Gay's contract too - because IMO he does not deserve max money. However the NBA is built on these kinds of deals, and Toronto has nobody near that level of talent. I think Gay is worth as much as a combination of Calderon and Barbosa. After this year, he'll have 3 years left on his contract. That is the same time frame that JV, and our rook next year will be on rookie deals. Bargnani is being paid well. After him, the next highest salary would be Amir who is getting around $6M and could be trade bait if we draft a PF.
I don't think his contract is going to be that much of a burden to our team in the next few years. Gay is probably a top 5 SF in the league (next to Lebron, Durant, Carmelo, and possibly Pierce), and he's only 25 - I don't see Toronto getting a talent like him without praying that one of our draft picks work out - which is always a gamble.
What I'm not sure about though is if Bargnani and Gay could work together. Gay seems to need the ball in his hands on offense, as does Bargnani.
You need to think big picture. The Raptors have JV coming this year and another high lottery pick. Then they also have to re-up DeRozan and JJ in a few years, with Ed Davis the following year. They're going to have to spend lots of money on their own talent over the next four years(all five mentioned players will be up for big raises more than likely when they come off their rookie deals).
Honestly, I'd rather them go spend $10M/yr on Batum. I think that sort of signing, even though it's overpaying, if far more responsible and the difference between Gay and Batum isn't as great as some might think around here. Certainly Gay isn't twice the player Batum is.
The value of a player should not be a linear function of his production but rather a concave function of his marginal value in my opinion.
In other words, if player A is two times better than player B, then player A should be making more than twice what player B makes.
The difficulty lies in finding the correct measure(s) and valuation function. The proof is trivial and thus I will not bore the readers with the tedious details.
... I'm telling you Rudy Gay isn't worth upwards of close on $20M/yr. That contract is going to sting a team rebuilding and looking to hang onto their talent in three to four years from now and for what? What has Rudy Gay done that makes us stand up and say he's worth the risk that comes with that gigantic old system contract? Looking past that, the new CBA tightens the leash more and more as we progress through the CBA contract life.
I can see it now, a 4000 post thread dedicated to how displeased we are with Rudy Gay because he's making close on to $20M and he's not taking over games in the playoffs. "Everything Gay" here we come.
I was just making a comment on the relative value of a player who is twice as good as another player, not on Gay and Batun specifically.
You can always peruse http://raptorsrepublic.com/forums/sh...Gay-in-Toronto if you want to read whether I think Rudy Gay is worth $20M per year.
Gay would have 3 years left on his deal after this season at $16.5, 17.9 and 19.3M. He is 25 entering the prime of his career. When he is up for renewal, JV and 2012 pick would have 1 year left on their rookie contracts.
I totally agree Gay is overpaid but not significantly. Given the combination of rookie contracts, role players currently under contract, and Bird Rights the Raptors would have to work with, I would not hesitate to take him on for the next 3 years.
Unlike many of the current Raptors and future draft picks, you know exactly what you are going to get with Gay. He started slow this year but has come on of late. His shooting percentages are down this year but so is a lot of the league due to schedule and long layoff plus he had his shoulder injury last year.
Last edited by Matt52; Tue Feb 7th, 2012 at 06:12 PM.
+ 1. I look at next year as a team getting TWO top five picks in the draft (a la Cleveland): JV and ??? In a weird way, AB's injury could be a blessing in disguise. I'm convinced that this team looks way better than paper suggests with him in the line-up due to the team's renewed commitment to each other and defence.
“The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King
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