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Thread: Wing Regression

  1. #21
    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    Clearly im not comparing this to his rookie campaign (unfair comparison due to lack of minutes) but rather directly comparing it to last year which in comparison is a true regress. I dont know how you can argue that? Your definition proves my point! he has returned as a less developed state this year when compared to last, therefor he has regressed since last year! (other than 3pt shot)
    He didn't become a worse player than he was last year......

  2. #22
    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote Miekenstien wrote: View Post
    http://www.nba.com/playerfile/demar_derozan/
    dds' numbers this year vs career. most numbers are up. a huge 8% on his 3s if that can continue wow. assists up rebounds up.

    http://www.nba.com/playerfile/demar_...eer_stats.html
    directly compared to last year slightly down in most categories but we need to wait until the end of the year to see if he can even them out. pretty sure last year was a slow start and strong finish as well.

    does anyone have the numbers of the first 41 games last year compared with the first 32 games this year?

    really not much of a regression at all given the circumstances of this year.
    +1

    Yeah, Demar has a consistency of starting weak, finishing strong i.e USC, rookie season, last season.

  3. #23
    Raptors Republic All-Star enlightenment's Avatar
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    Quote RaptorReuben wrote: View Post
    He didn't become a worse player than he was last year......
    thats not what the stats say, or how he looks on the court. How can you say that a drop from .467 FG% (last year) to .409 FG% (this year) (.500 FG% in his rookie year)

    Ill even get into the more advanced stats:
    Last year TS%: 53% This year TS%: 49.6% = regression by 6.4% ([53-49.6]/53)
    Last year Eff: 14.11 This year Eff: 11.41 = regression by 19%
    Last year WS: 3.58 This year WS: 1.5 = regression by 58%
    Last year PER: 14.47 This year PER: 12.11 = regression by 16%

    Infact even when compared to his ROOKIE campaign he's got a lower WS, PER (only slightly), TRR, TS%, and Ast%.

    He's regressed incredibly on his 10-23ft jump shot when compared to last year
    He's regressed with his Ast:TO
    He's regressed with his Steals

    INFACT, the only few things he's actually improved or maintained would be his 3pt% (still not a very good %) and his ability to dish out assists (encouraging statistic! Although due to higher turnover rates STILL regresses with Ast:TO)

    Now please enlighten me, how has he NOT become a worse player when compare to last year (and even arguably his rookie season)???

    How is this not a "return to an original or less developed state"???

  4. #24
    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    thats not what the stats say, or how he looks on the court. How can you say that a drop from .467 FG% (last year) to .409 FG% (this year) (.500 FG% in his rookie year)

    Ill even get into the more advanced stats:
    Last year TS%: 53% This year TS%: 49.6% = regression by 6.4% ([53-49.6]/53)
    Last year Eff: 14.11 This year Eff: 11.41 = regression by 19%
    Last year WS: 3.58 This year WS: 1.5 = regression by 58%
    Last year PER: 14.47 This year PER: 12.11 = regression by 16%

    Infact even when compared to his ROOKIE campaign he's got a lower WS, PER (only slightly), TRR, TS%, and Ast%.

    He's regressed incredibly on his 10-23ft jump shot when compared to last year
    He's regressed with his Ast:TO
    He's regressed with his Steals

    INFACT, the only few things he's actually improved or maintained would be his 3pt% (still not a very good %) and his ability to dish out assists (encouraging statistic! Although due to higher turnover rates STILL regresses with Ast:TO)

    Now please enlighten me, how has he NOT become a worse player when compare to last year (and even arguably his rookie season)???

    How is this not a "return to an original or less developed state"???
    bring up the stats before the all star break last year. let him finish this year and then make the comparison. he gets the benefit of the doubt from me. last year he played for a different minded coach who preached all offense. had way more easy runs at the basket and this year is for the first time playing in a structured offense.

    the lack of training camp and practice time these players are getting can't be understated.

    http://www.nba.com/playerfile/paul_p...eer_stats.html
    http://www.nba.com/playerfile/kobe_b...eer_stats.html
    http://www.nba.com/playerfile/dirk_n...eer_stats.html

    here are three players who i would say have also not regressed even though their numbers are all off of last years numbers.
    this year the league is generally not as good as last year. it is happening across the board.

  5. #25
    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    thats not what the stats say, or how he looks on the court. How can you say that a drop from .467 FG% (last year) to .409 FG% (this year) (.500 FG% in his rookie year)

    Ill even get into the more advanced stats:
    Last year TS%: 53% This year TS%: 49.6% = regression by 6.4% ([53-49.6]/53)
    Last year Eff: 14.11 This year Eff: 11.41 = regression by 19%
    Last year WS: 3.58 This year WS: 1.5 = regression by 58%
    Last year PER: 14.47 This year PER: 12.11 = regression by 16%

    Infact even when compared to his ROOKIE campaign he's got a lower WS, PER (only slightly), TRR, TS%, and Ast%.

    He's regressed incredibly on his 10-23ft jump shot when compared to last year
    He's regressed with his Ast:TO
    He's regressed with his Steals

    INFACT, the only few things he's actually improved or maintained would be his 3pt% (still not a very good %) and his ability to dish out assists (encouraging statistic! Although due to higher turnover rates STILL regresses with Ast:TO)

    Now please enlighten me, how has he NOT become a worse player when compare to last year (and even arguably his rookie season)???

    How is this not a "return to an original or less developed state"???
    Regression in stats sure. As a player? I don't believe so one bit. He isn't declining as a player and gives you bad stats. Regression is usually what you see from older players my friend. Where they start great, and then finish off lower, lower, and lower, and just can't do the things that they use too i.e Slash, drive, dunk, all this athletic stuff. Demar is inconsistent, a lot of players are inconsistent, but it doesn't mean they regress from who they are. Nick Young is an example, Joe Johnson his PPG has gone down since the 08-09, 09-10 season, his RPG and APG are down, and so is his field goal percentage. If you're constantly going to look at stats than you could almost include any player with stats going down from a year to year.

    I can tell you Demar hasn't reached his potential, and neither did he or will live up to the expectations this season, but I don't believe he's regressed as a player. He can still do everything that he's originally had, and has added more to his initially raw game.

    Rookie season? Most "raw" player in the draft. Second year? Added a jump-shot and confidence, and BAM he was a good player. This year? Added the three point shot, and got bigger than he was last year (but not big enough). He has had some very good games, and has had very big impact in games as well. It's not like his ABILITIES to put up the stats has regressed, it's just his ability to be ABLE to put them up has been INCONSISTENT. Not regressed, he was inconsistent from the start of the season, then progressed. Post all-star break he's been much better in scoring the basketball and what not, so IMO, he just didn't reach the initial expectations he had in front of him, which is in my opinion, not a regressed season, but a non-lived up season.

  6. #26
    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    He just didn't get to where he wanted to be. He's young and will go through ups & downs and his inconsistencies. It's just IMO, Matt said it best where you don't live up to expectations is different from regression.

  7. #27
    Raptors Republic All-Star enlightenment's Avatar
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    I understand what you mean by his abilities have not regressed,it may just be his current play that has, and in that sense i completely agree. Ive always been the one to maintain hopes for demar, and I still believe he'll become a great player based on potential.

    At the same time you cannot argue against the fact that his play on the court this year has been noticeably worse than previous years, and in that term he's regressed in the sense of his play rather than his abilities.

    I love demar though, specifically because of his work ethic I believe he will improve in those aspects of his game that lack (we've seen him take significant steps in terms of capabilities since his rookie campaign). Handling and consistent shooting will come, Im not worried about him.

    I still find it peculiar to see him and others (like Young) regressing in play when historically at this time of their careers (the cliche: the third year should tell you what kind of player he'll be) they should be improving or reaching their potential. Id like to know why he's regressed (in play) and if it is a league wide phenomena in this shortened season?

  8. #28
    Raptors Republic All-Star enlightenment's Avatar
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    Quote Miekenstien wrote: View Post
    http://www.nba.com/playerfile/paul_p...eer_stats.html
    http://www.nba.com/playerfile/kobe_b...eer_stats.html
    http://www.nba.com/playerfile/dirk_n...eer_stats.html

    here are three players who i would say have also not regressed even though their numbers are all off of last years numbers.
    this year the league is generally not as good as last year. it is happening across the board.
    but I disagree with those three players not regressing, clearly all three of them are on the downward slope of their careers!

    It would be interesting to see league-wide stats compared from this year to last! (league wide TS%, AST%, TRR, etc) I wonder if the players collectively are experiencing some sort of statistical regression. I heard Matt mention how scoring has been down from last season, perhaps thats a telling sign?

  9. #29
    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    but I disagree with those three players not regressing, clearly all three of them are on the downward slope of their careers!

    It would be interesting to see league-wide stats compared from this year to last! (league wide TS%, AST%, TRR, etc) I wonder if the players collectively are experiencing some sort of statistical regression. I heard Matt mention how scoring has been down from last season, perhaps thats a telling sign?
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...012_stats.html
    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...011_stats.html

    all i could find. cant get the two full seasons with all players mushed together averages though and i doubt either of us or anyone else is going through 1000 players haha

  10. #30
    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...&order_by=wins

    here is a better one. you can sort by whatever stat you want. i just scanned 3pt% and fg% and a large majority of the ones at the bottom are 2011-2012 teams.

  11. #31
    Raptors Republic All-Star enlightenment's Avatar
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    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...gue_stats.html

    Pretty cool to look at, though it only shows up to '06..

    interesting is that back in the 60s, there was approximately DOUBLE the total rebounds per team per game than in '06!
    Also scoring is way down then it used to be.
    In the 80's FG% was at the highest, but at the same time 3ptFG% was way way below the average of todays game.

    Wish I could compare this season with last, if anyone finds a similar statistics table thats been updated Id really appreciate it !

  12. #32
    Raptors Republic All-Star enlightenment's Avatar
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    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...&order_by=wins

    Thanks Miekenstien! Though I am not about to do the actual calculations it is very very clear that almost ALL the teams are experiencing lower FG% when compared to last year, and if you just scroll down in FG% descending order you'll notice how the top is heavy with 2010-2011 teams while the bottom is heavy with 2011-2012 teams!

  13. #33
    Raptors Republic All-Star enlightenment's Avatar
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    Charlotte, Utah, New Jersey, and Milwaukee are the ONLY teams to have increased their FG%, everyone else has dropped!!

  14. #34
    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Quote enlightenment wrote: View Post
    I understand what you mean by his abilities have not regressed,it may just be his current play that has, and in that sense i completely agree. Ive always been the one to maintain hopes for demar, and I still believe he'll become a great player based on potential.

    At the same time you cannot argue against the fact that his play on the court this year has been noticeably worse than previous years, and in that term he's regressed in the sense of his play rather than his abilities.

    I love demar though, specifically because of his work ethic I believe he will improve in those aspects of his game that lack (we've seen him take significant steps in terms of capabilities since his rookie campaign). Handling and consistent shooting will come, Im not worried about him.

    I still find it peculiar to see him and others (like Young) regressing in play when historically at this time of their careers (the cliche: the third year should tell you what kind of player he'll be) they should be improving or reaching their potential. Id like to know why he's regressed (in play) and if it is a league wide phenomena in this shortened season?
    Well by the conditions of the season, new coaching staff, new system, more higher expectations, he can basically say he's playing with a chip on his shoulder because of so much hype.

    I'm not worried about him either, I really believe he will be the guy the Raptors count on down the road in the future, I just hope this isn't the year that shows ''him''.

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