Well sure, but look at what actually happened. McGrady left, Okaley got traded and VC and A. Davic started having injury issues. They had a taste of success by drafting well, then a combination of bad luck and bad management knocked them back down to earth. Either way, the only real success the franchise has ever tasted was built on the back of the draft.
I think Trades, Drafting, Coaching, Management all play an equal part.
If you only have trades, then you have the early days of the Mark Cuban Mavericks. (Or Championship Boston Celtics.)
If you only have Drafting, then you're left with the Sacremento Kings. (Or playoff Bound Timberwolves.)
If you only have Coaching, you're left with the Flip Saunders Wizards.
Thats what makes the NBA fun. Is that ANY combination of the above, can net you ANY combination of success.
“I am so clever that sometimes I don't understand a single word of what I am saying.”
― Oscar Wilde
Wait a second here, you're missing some key points. When Oak got to Toronto he was 35 years old, well past his prime. He left at age 37 when most players have already retired.
Davis got to Toronto at age 31 and similar to Oak, when he left he was at an age where most players are retiring.
When Carter was traded the team had already crumbled by Grunwald's choice to try and rope together older veteran pieces developed by other organizations in exchange for highly promising prospects. You failed to mention the reason why Carter was traded. The main reason essentially was his displeasure in the team's performance. It was a lot more complicated than that but one could argue that the other stuff would not have tailspinned out of control had management been stronger and more cohesive by sticking to development, focused on long term growth on a unified front.
One could argue had they stuck to continuing to draft well and focusing on committing to a plan and optimizing their strategies to serve that plan they might have eventually built something that could survive a stretch of bad luck.
in one way, i think the statement is total horseshit, because it is, in fact, total horseshit."...the draft is arguably the smallest part of building a successful team."
and in another way, i think the statement has some truth to it, because you are all arguing about it
Unfortunately, adding the word 'arguably' in front of a stupid statement doesn't make it any less stupid.
Well, here is the list of finalists for the NBA championships since 2000
Los Angeles Lakers Indiana Pacers
Los Angeles Lakers Philadelphia 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers New Jersey Nets
San Antonio Spurs New Jersey Nets
Los Angeles Lakers Detroit Pistons
San Antonio Spurs Detroit Pistons
Dallas Mavericks Miami Heat
San Antonio Spurs Cleveland Cavaliers
Los Angeles Lakers Boston Celtics
Los Angeles Lakers Orlando Magic
Los Angeles Lakers Boston Celtics
Dallas Mavericks Miami Heat
I don't see the draft, or more specifically, having good drafting position, being a huge factor in any of those teams success, outside of Cleveland.
All of those teams have managed to find a nice piece or two in the draft over that span of time, but that is more a factor of good scouting and/or smart management trades (packaging late first round picks with other assets) than good drafting position. I make the assumption, given the context of the comment Smith was responding to (changing the ping pong ball distribution) that draft position was the main point in his reply.
An extreme example would be LA, which has made it to the finals 11 times in 24 years since 1985 when the lottery draft was first instituted. I those 26 years only 20 teams have made it to the finals, in 52 opportunities.
Los Angeles Lakers Boston Celtics
Houston Rockets Detroit Pistons
Portland Trail Blazers Orlando Magic
Phoenix Suns Chicago Bulls
Houston Rockets Orlando Magic
Seattle SuperSonics New York Knicks
Utah Jazz Philadelphia 76ers
San Antonio Spurs Indiana Pacers
Dallas Mavericks New Jersey Nets
Miami Heat Cleveland Cavaliers
There is no doubt that finishing badly for several years helped about half of those teams, but the other half made multiple appearances, built on a tradition of being good teams, with many play-off appearances, and consequently, many seasons outside of the lottery.
I think the Lakers Pistons are the exception to the rule.
Philly had Iverson - #1.
The Nets had Martin (#1) and Jefferson (#13 acquired by trading their #7 pick).
Spurs had Duncan #1 and earlier Robinson #1.
Dallas had Dirk #9 - which they used their #6 pick to acquire.
Heat had Wade #5 - there would be no LBJ in South Beach without Wade.
Cleveland - #1 LBJ - as you mentioned.
Boston - Pierce was #10 and #5 was used to acquire Ray Allen.
Orlando, Howard, #1.
Take out Dallas (barely), Detroit, and the Lakers and they all had a top 5 pick in common as a centre piece to their success.
No argument from here, but most of the teams you listed managed to get one outstanding draft pick, and then kept a position as one of the premier teams in their conference for years. The Spurs lucked out with the Duncan, Robinson deal, getting two high picks in consecutive years, just as the Raptors will be doing this coming draft.
Actually, with a #1 pick five years ago, and two consecutive lottery picks (last year and this) the Raptors are positioned to do well in the next few years, as we keep telling ourselves. But most teams have not had that opportunity.
I guess it depends on how important you figure getting one top five pick every 6-7 years is. No one thinks it's not a combination of the three items mentioned already, draft position, management and free agent destination desirability. The question would be how much weight do you put on each element.
I would think that Lakers, New York, Boston and Miami are the cream of FA destination spots. So that factor is important for those teams.
For everybody else I think I would rank them as
1.) Management and staff (includes scouting to maximize your drafting opportunities in less desirable draft positions)
2.) Draft position
3.) Free agent desirability
Last one is really a mute point because I think most US NBA players would pretty much go to any NBA city with no problem, outside of maybe Toronto, Minny, Oklahoma. Money would be the gamer changer in the last factor and THAT is important if you don't have the revenue to happily pay the luxury tax.
My thoughts?
The draft is very important, but where you pick is not nearly as important as how you pick, or how you choose to use that pick. SO ultimately, I would agree with the statement, DRAFT POSITION is arguably the least important way to build a team, especially because the top 3 are chosen by the ping pong balls.
Good scouting (over a long time line) will produce a better return with the draft pick than bad scouting. Good management is way more important than draft picks, because a badly managed team will just trade/lose any good players they draft in a bad trade or free agency.
"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon
Just what I was trying to say, only I was able to cram more words in.
Whats with the Doug hate? I dont agree with this statement, but I enjoy reading his blog almost daily.
Wow, there is a lot of hate for Doug Smith. I'll come to his defense. Yeah, his own opinions on basketball topics may be well off the mark at times but he also brings a lot of information to the table you otherwise wouldn't get. You're better off with him than without him... Unless of course you don't enjoy reading little tidbits he offers up through talking to this person or that person in the organization.
I'm with enlightenment on this one. His blog is usually a good read.
I disagree adamantly with Dougie. The draft is extremely important-the most important part-of team building.
I find Doug very reliable when it comes to sources and backroom information, he's also very witty and entertaining to read about.
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