Can the Raptors make the playoffs next year?

[ezz_bee]

I think that if Casey can keep the team as focused as he did this year, then we'll find away into the playoffs, although we'd have to have an outstanding season to get the 6-7 seed. I just keep thinking that Casey this year reminds me of how Adleman had the rockets playing for 2-3 years without t-mac or Yao, not a lot of talent, but able to be .500. The difference of course is that .500 in the East gets you in, whereas Adleman's teams were always on the outside (If I remember correctly)

I'm not going to say that this is a lock, because off season moves, by us and others, as mentioned above can really change how I would predict outcomes.

BUT right now I would put the raps chances of finishing 8th at a healthy 72.629666666666% chance of making the playoffs, plus or minus 3%.

[Puffer]

...plus or minus 3%.

Shouldn't that be plus or minus 2.79%?

Leaving aside their offense, I wonder how much improvement in points against the Raptors can make next year? Is it reasonable to expect them to hold opponents to 93.5? And considering offence, how much can they expect to improve with a talent injection, and hopefully a season more conducive to continued health for AB, JB, JC and LK? Move a point less for opponents, and a couple of points better for themselves and that could represent a big swing.

Of course, you could also argue, maybe the improvement defensively was partially because AB was on the bench for so many games :-)

[ezz_bee]

Shouldn't that be plus or minus 2.79%?

Interestingly enough the calculations for +/- came in at exactly 3%, or 3.00% if you like the decimals. And I would never and random decimals just to make it seem like I knew what I was talking about.

[BallaBalla]

I usually like to do a bit of a list to say what teams are locks, likely and what teams are fringe, then determine who we can beat out.

Locks:
Chicago Easy Pick
Miami Easy Pick
Indiana On the rise

Likely
Orlando Needs a Healthy Dwight
Atlanta Providing they don't blow the team up
New York Full season with new coach and healthy roster.
Boston Does any of the Old 3 retire/leave?

Fringe:
Philadelphia Will be a playoff team this year, will need a tweak to make a jump up
Toronto Will be adding nice pieces and will have a full training camp with a solid coach
Cleavland Showed signs early this year, Irving makes this team legit next year.
Milwaukee Needs to address their "bigs" situation, has some decent players.

So, with 3 locks and 4 likely, that leaves one spot to fight for. Now that's not to say that one of the likely teams falls flat and misses the playoffs opening up 2 spots to fight for. Do we just take control and become a 45 win team next year? I will wait and pass judgement when I see what the roster is going to look like in October.

I think that this is a pretty decent analysis, although I think that Orlando and Boston will be much worse next year, same with ATL.

The main reason why I think that we will be in the mix is because of our overall point differential. Assuming that Bargs can play at the same level he was at the beginning of the year, and JV is a good player his first year, I think that we are only a few good decisions in crunch time away from winning those 6 or 7 games. I will never forget the back to back wins this year in Phoenix and Utah which historically were write-offs. Especially the game in Utah, when you see how tough they are to beat at home. These were extremely significant wins because they were different. They showed something.

I think that this year, as opposed to historically, whether or not we could execute on offense down the stretch mattered just as much as the strength of the opponent.

If we can just simply assume that we can play at that level consistently, and stay healthy, we are good enough to beat teams in the 9th or 8th spot without adding anyone new. This doesn't mean I don't agree that we badly need to upgrade the talent at every position, it just means that this team showed that they can compete.

Now, let's see what can happen in the offseason, but because of Casey, I am expecting improvement next year from the core guys who we have now, if we do end up keeping them.

[NoPropsneeded]

i agree, orlando and boston are on the downfall and Atlanta had been mediocre for half a decade now. We have a solid chance to make the playoffs next year

[stretch]

There's a lot of bad basketball teams in the Eastern Conference right now, most of them being years away from being competitive. So yes, it is very possible. Free agency is more important than the 2012 draft towards the goal of making the playoffs next spring.