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"Casey: Valanciunas' Worst Case Scenaro Is Noah" & "Koreen: Too much hype?"

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  • #31
    Gorlitzer wrote: View Post
    I think we should really get a grip on our expectations for the Lithuanian. There are some serious misconceptions out there. I have lived in Europe for the past several years and have seen my share of Rytas games and Lietuva national games. These things are true, and must all be qualified with the word 'yet':

    Valanciunas is not a strong post defender. He routinely gets scorched by his check in one on one situations. His weak-side D is actually better thanks to his hustle, but even then is instincts are only decent.

    He is not an above average rebounder.

    He needs someone else to create offense for him in the pick and roll.

    He does not have a great vertical.

    He has a high foul rate in tougher matchups.

    He is also inconsistent. He'll put up big numbers one game and nearly vanish the next.

    Okay... all of these are negatives. But when I see people writing about how he'll be our defensive anchor and a rebounding machine, ... they just don't have the whole story.
    You're right. We should view him as future prospect not someone who will smash boards and crush bones from minute 1.
    Official Pope of the Raptors sponsored by MLSE.

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    • #32
      Gorlitzer wrote: View Post
      I think we should really get a grip on our expectations for the Lithuanian. There are some serious misconceptions out there. I have lived in Europe for the past several years and have seen my share of Rytas games and Lietuva national games. These things are true, and must all be qualified with the word 'yet':

      Valanciunas is not a strong post defender. He routinely gets scorched by his check in one on one situations. His weak-side D is actually better thanks to his hustle, but even then is instincts are only decent.

      He is not an above average rebounder.

      He needs someone else to create offense for him in the pick and roll.

      He does not have a great vertical.

      He has a high foul rate in tougher matchups.

      He is also inconsistent. He'll put up big numbers one game and nearly vanish the next.

      Okay... all of these are negatives. But when I see people writing about how he'll be our defensive anchor and a rebounding machine, ... they just don't have the whole story.
      I agree with a lot of your points. But certainly not with the part about the serious misconceptions. That's just way too generalizing in respect to the discussion about Valanciunas on this site.

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      • #33
        Soft Euro wrote: View Post
        I agree with a lot of your points. But certainly not with the part about the serious misconceptions. That's just way too generalizing in respect to the discussion about Valanciunas on this site.
        True. I think many people on this site do have realistic expectations and understand European basketball.

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        • #34
          Gorlitzer wrote: View Post
          I think we should really get a grip on our expectations for the Lithuanian. There are some serious misconceptions out there. I have lived in Europe for the past several years and have seen my share of Rytas games and Lietuva national games. These things are true, and must all be qualified with the word 'yet':

          Valanciunas is not a strong post defender. He routinely gets scorched by his check in one on one situations. His weak-side D is actually better thanks to his hustle, but even then is instincts are only decent.

          He is not an above average rebounder.

          He needs someone else to create offense for him in the pick and roll.

          He does not have a great vertical.

          He has a high foul rate in tougher matchups.

          He is also inconsistent. He'll put up big numbers one game and nearly vanish the next.

          Okay... all of these are negatives. But when I see people writing about how he'll be our defensive anchor and a rebounding machine, ... they just don't have the whole story.
          What I understand is that JV is only 19, and still needs a lot of coaching like all young big men. Casey's record is very good at coaching defense, and I think JV will adapt quite quickly. He will certainly struggle against big low post scorers, but Casey will likely find a way to cover that.

          Besides his energy and aggressiveness, what I really like about JV is his touch. As Sabonis once said, JV has very good touch around the basket (great "wrists", according to Saboni). This is really underrated for big men, but players like Pau Gasol show how important it is to have good skill and touch around the basket. Add to that excellent foul-shooting, and I think he will end up being a reliable scoring option. After all, I think that the European ball and basket is the same size as the NBA, right?

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          • #35
            Bouncepass wrote: View Post
            Besides his energy and aggressiveness, what I really like about JV is his touch. As Sabonis once said, JV has very good touch around the basket (great "wrists", according to Saboni). This is really underrated for big men, but players like Pau Gasol show how important it is to have good skill and touch around the basket. Add to that excellent foul-shooting, and I think he will end up being a reliable scoring option. After all, I think that the European ball and basket is the same size as the NBA, right?
            True, but that doesn't jive with Casey's description of him: “a guy who mans the middle, challenged a little bit in terms of scoring in the paint but as far as of pick-and-rolling to the basket, he has great hands to roll and finish.”

            I dunno about you guys but as a Raptors fan alarm bells are going off in my head when someone is telling me that our future C for years to come is going to have trouble scoring in the paint. Especially when our future PF for years to come has the same problem. Sure hope we win the lottery so we can have a different PF of the future!
            your pal,
            ebrian

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            • #36
              ebrian wrote: View Post
              I dunno about you guys but as a Raptors fan alarm bells are going off in my head when someone is telling me that our future C for years to come is going to have trouble scoring in the paint. Especially when our future PF for years to come has the same problem. Sure hope we win the lottery so we can have a different PF of the future!
              It's a reference to his back-to-the-basket game. He isn't a great or even good low post scorer at this point but all you have to do is look at his shooting percentages (FT%, FG%) to see he has good hands and, from what I have seen of him, he appears to have good footwork. With that as your base, the low post game can be developed.

              Also, I'm pretty sure you could describe Anthony Davis' offensive game in the exact same way. He has little to no low post game and no jumper.

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              • #37
                slaw wrote: View Post
                ...I'm pretty sure you could describe Anthony Davis' offensive game in the exact same way. He has little to no low post game and no jumper.

                True from the games I saw.

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                • #38
                  I'm not worried about JV's post scoring in year one. He's gonna get his points from pick n rolls, offensive rebounds and from the free throw line. Expecting a back to the back post threat at 19 years of age isn't reasonable. How many quality players are even in the league with that style of game? Bogut, Jefferson and Pau would be the very good ones that come to mind with other players like D12 and Bynum getting better at it. As long as he's working his tail off I think he'll have a positive affect on the floor and he's got time to develop in those other areas.

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                  • #39
                    Gorlitzer wrote: View Post
                    I think we should really get a grip on our expectations for the Lithuanian. There are some serious misconceptions out there. I have lived in Europe for the past several years and have seen my share of Rytas games and Lietuva national games. These things are true, and must all be qualified with the word 'yet':

                    Valanciunas is not a strong post defender. He routinely gets scorched by his check in one on one situations. His weak-side D is actually better thanks to his hustle, but even then is instincts are only decent.

                    He is not an above average rebounder.

                    He needs someone else to create offense for him in the pick and roll.

                    He does not have a great vertical.

                    He has a high foul rate in tougher matchups.

                    He is also inconsistent. He'll put up big numbers one game and nearly vanish the next.

                    Okay... all of these are negatives. But when I see people writing about how he'll be our defensive anchor and a rebounding machine, ... they just don't have the whole story.
                    I disagree with you on rebounding. At 19 years of age he lead the VTB league, lithuanian league and was in top 5 of eurocup. So at 19 years old he's out rebounding man who make on average 250,000-500,000 year. ALso he is in the top 5 for shot blocking in all those leagues too. He's out played bigman like Jeff Adrien who plays for khimsky and played two years in the nba. Your right that he is inconsistent and that for the most part he can't create his own offense. Offensively he can rebound and he can roll very well. ALso he's developed his jump hook and shoots a high percentage with the hook. I've watched about 20 games that JV's played and he's quite consistent when he doesn't get himself in foul trouble. Strength will certainly help him hold his position and be more consistent on the defensive end so not to get himself into foul trouble. Very exciting for the raps to get the best prospect in europe and Asia in the last few years.

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                    • #40
                      Frankthetank wrote: View Post
                      ...Very exciting for the raps to get the best prospect in europe and Asia in the last few years.
                      +1000

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                      • #41
                        Gorlitzer wrote: View Post
                        He is not an above average rebounder.
                        I don't see how you can state that JV in not an above average rebounder when he finished 2nd in both the VTB league and the Eurocup. I decided to look at his stats in both those competitions to see if there is any validity to your statement. In the last 26 games in the VTB and the Eurocup since January 3rd, JV collected 71 offensive rebound, 146 defensive, totaling 217. That averages to 8.3 rebounds per game. In those 26 games he's averaged 24.5 minutes a game (638 total minutes), so that would give him a PER 36 minutes average of 12.2 [(217/638)*36]. How is that not an above average rebounder. You guys can go through the game logs and challenge my numbers. But he looks like a fairly good rebounder to me.

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                        • #42
                          Michel G wrote: View Post
                          I don't see how you can state that JV in not an above average rebounder when he finished 2nd in both the VTB league and the Eurocup. I decided to look at his stats in both those competitions to see if there is any validity to your statement. In the last 26 games in the VTB and the Eurocup since January 3rd, JV collected 71 offensive rebound, 146 defensive, totaling 217. That averages to 8.3 rebounds per game. In those 26 games he's averaged 24.5 minutes a game (638 total minutes), so that would give him a PER 36 minutes average of 12.2 [(217/638)*36]. How is that not an above average rebounder. You guys can go through the game logs and challenge my numbers. But he looks like a fairly good rebounder to me.
                          I'm glad you did go through. I agree with your assessment but did not have the time to do so.

                          The only way I could possibly see the statement having even a shred of validity would be from the context he does not get as many as he should. This would be due to a young, developing man going against mature men. If you look at it from that context, then it becomes downright scary his rebounding abilities in a couple of years of maturation and training.

                          I very well could be a biased homer looking through rose coloured glasses though.

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                          • #43
                            thead wrote: View Post
                            in his prime I see 14 - 15pts 9 - 12 boards 2 - 3 blocks

                            sort of a Dikembe Olajuwon hybrid
                            Dikember Mutombo, 4-time defensive player of the year, 8-time all star (in a period the league was loaded with great centers)
                            Hakeem Olajuwon, 2-time defensive player of the year, 1 MVP, 2 Finals MVP, HoF, arguably one of the 10 best players to ever play the game.

                            I think people easily forget how great Mutombo and Olajuwon were as basketball players. But maybe it's the just the long English Canadian tradition of dismissing everything French.

                            Je me souviens.

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                            • #44
                              Matt52 wrote: View Post
                              I very well could be a biased homer looking through rose coloured glasses though.
                              You? No!!!!

                              I will be happy if he averages 7.5 points and 7.0 rebounds in 26 minutes per game in his rookie season.

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                              • #45
                                Hugmenot wrote: View Post
                                You? No!!!!

                                I will be happy if he averages 7.5 points and 7.0 rebounds in 26 minutes per game in his rookie season.
                                I've said 6-7 points and 6-7 rebounds would be a big deal. I would be very happy with that.

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