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Thread: The point guard comparison - effectiveness of either Jose or JB at the point

  1. #21
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    Quote torch19 wrote: View Post
    The sample sizes are definitely very small, but I had also mentioned that in the post. However, the object of the post was to analyze which point guard worked better with similar line-ups. Although I agree that the sample sizes are not large enough to draw up a definitive conclusion, I mentioned that it was still somewhat a good indication on what each other brought to the forefront.

    I would have loved to have worked with better numbers, but I simply presented what was.

    For the object of my analysis, I believe I used the data that best settles my curiosity.

    I simply offered a fresh take on what otherwise was, a landslide debate in favour of Jose.
    To be fair you did mention that, Torch. And the fresh take is interesting

  2. #22
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    Quote RapthoseLeafs wrote: View Post
    I sometimes wonder how Jose feels about all these Contenders to his throne - or maybe that should be Pretenders.

    I have to admit - I'm not a big fan of Bayless. Am I biased, and ignoring the stats - limited as they are. Or am I simply taking into account all the variables that seem to go with Bayless, and his quest to become our official Starting PG.

    The concerns/observations I have, could include:

    • Why does Jarryd play better when he starts. Is that petulance, or just a simple fact?
    • Why does Bayless feel he's a Starter (at this juncture), yet hasn't really been deserving of that position? Or more to the point, hasn't quite proven he has that quality?
    • Granted, Jose has had his injuries over time (too much playing time in my mind - including overseas), yet I'm concerned about JB's ability to maintain himself at the level of minutes Calderon has had?
    • Why do I feel our Offense runs smoother with JC, even though the limited stats give credibility to Bayless?
    • Why do I feel Jose is a better team & veteran presence? Or will in time, Jarryd become such a player?



    On another note (to which these stats bring out), they seem to indicate some obvious factors/questions:

    • We need a real Center
    • What happened to Ed Davis? I know some wondered why he didn't get more court time, but these stats seem to back how (or why) Casey allotted them as such.
    • And lastly - and yes they are limited stats - it gave a little up to Andrea, who really gets little respect.



    .
    Actually there are more consistent stats, with less noise and more predictability: wins produced. They have Jose at .200 or so and Jerryd at .075 where .100 is an average NBA player.
    http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/tor

  3. #23
    Raptors Republic Starter torch19's Avatar
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    Quote Kuh wrote: View Post
    Actually there are more consistent stats, with less noise and more predictability: wins produced. They have Jose at .200 or so and Jerryd at .075 where .100 is an average NBA player.
    http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/tor
    WP48 is a very precise calculation and also offers a very good indication on the player's production. By summing up all of the wins produced by every player on the Raptors roster, you should be able to obtain the actual number of wins (in this case, 23) with a margin of error of 2.5

    The actual number of summation of wins is 24.73, which goes to say that the calculation was accurate.

    However, I ask you this question. Can you credit 20 of those wins directly to these three players? - Amir Johnson, Jose Calderon and Ed Davis ? -- as indicated by those statistics.

    I offered one line-up with Jose, DD, JJ, Ed and Amir and they were not very effective together. You might argue that it has to be DeMar/JJ since their WP48 are -0.03 and -0.06, respectively.

    In my defense, I would offer you that the more effective line-up the Raptors had this season included a line-up of:
    - Jerryd Bayless - Gary Forbes - DeMar DeRozan - Linas Kleiza and - Ed Davis
    where two of those three players were not included.

    But again, it is all left for interpretation. I agree that Jose is a very good point guard, and I remember reading an article before that presented WP48 and summation of wins as the basis of the report. But to fully credit 81% of Toronto's victories to Ed, Amir and Jose solely ......
    “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

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    Raptors Republic Starter torch19's Avatar
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    Additionally, the Lakers garnered 41 wins this season, with Kobe Bryant being credited for only 2 of those wins ...

    The factors that affect the statistic are (primary factors)
    - shooting efficiency
    - rebs, steals and to's
    - assists, blocks and personal fouls

    Missed shots are factored in negatively.
    “I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

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  5. #25
    Raptors Republic Rookie tjford11's Avatar
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    The thing I don't like about Bayless is his sense of entitlement. Personally, I don't give a shit how high of a prospect he was ranked coming out of High School or College, or that his Dad is a psychiatrist. Like wasn't BJ Mullens the top ranked High School prospect a few years ago? Dude is riding the pine on the Bobcats and I can't even name another C on that team outside of Jordan's prized possession Kwame B. He's a great player but lets his mentality get in the way too much and places WAY too much on being a starter. He should be preoccupied with earning minutes and contributing before he starts labeling himself a starter. Plus, JC is a great guard who can actually handle and pass the ball - JB needs to learn to be more of a team player and quit sulking about his minutes before thinking about becoming a starter. Don't get me wrong, I'd hate to see Bayless go and really think he can be an asset to our team - but he needs to buy into the success of the team first, before considering himself all-star material.

  6. #26
    Super Moderator MangoKid's Avatar
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    Kudos to the work you put in. Much appreciated, sir.

    I remember coming across an Arizona Wildcats fan site not too long ago and they had posted something similar about Bayless, with his efficiency ratings on offense and defense as well as stats compiled from when he was the starter/given starter minutes and they were quite good.

    While I do like Bayless - and would like for him to stick around - as a combo 6th man off the bench (much like Jason Terry), with such a young team we have, in my opinion, it would be more beneficial to have a calming presence playing the point as opposed to someone who looks to shoot first.

  7. #27
    Administrator Arsenalist's Avatar
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    Nice post.

    What kills Bayless' perception among fans, and rightfully so, is that the guy has had some absolutely stinkers this season. Look at his game logs during the middle of the season:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/.../gamelog/2012/

    The stats that you've posted have been greatly inflated by the last 10 games of the season or so, which is the time when nothing should be evaluated or at least viewed with a discriminating eye.

  8. #28
    Raptors Republic Rookie footarez's Avatar
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    Amazing work. Thank you. I would love to keep Bayless - PG or 6th man - it doesn't matter. It is not like Calderon will play the next 82 games.

  9. #29
    Raptors Republic Starter special1's Avatar
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    this is coming from the dude who clearly loves ME-J (TJ FORD)...hahhaha......hilarious!

  10. #30
    Raptors Republic Starter special1's Avatar
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    Quote tjford11 wrote: View Post
    The thing I don't like about Bayless is his sense of entitlement. Personally, I don't give a shit how high of a prospect he was ranked coming out of High School or College, or that his Dad is a psychiatrist. Like wasn't BJ Mullens the top ranked High School prospect a few years ago? Dude is riding the pine on the Bobcats and I can't even name another C on that team outside of Jordan's prized possession Kwame B. He's a great player but lets his mentality get in the way too much and places WAY too much on being a starter. He should be preoccupied with earning minutes and contributing before he starts labeling himself a starter. Plus, JC is a great guard who can actually handle and pass the ball - JB needs to learn to be more of a team player and quit sulking about his minutes before thinking about becoming a starter. Don't get me wrong, I'd hate to see Bayless go and really think he can be an asset to our team - but he needs to buy into the success of the team first, before considering himself all-star material.
    this is coming from the dude who clearly loves ME-J (TJ FORD)...hahhaha......hilarious!

  11. #31
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    Much credit for the post. That is a lot of work and very interesting findings.

    Stats are a useful tool but I don't think they tell the whole story. This idea was talked about in the Everything Bayless so I don't want to go in to it again.

    Unfortunately Bayless doesn't pass the 'eye' test for me - and I know that is extremely subjective.

    Also I am still weary of a player who has better numbers when his team loses than when they win.
    Subjective, but still true. Bottom line is, at this point in their careers, you get much more out of Jose, especially if you include the intangibles which he brings to the table. We often hear great things about his locker room presence and leadership.

    ultimately, it would be difficult to pencil either of these into the starting lineup of a championship caliber team any time soon, and we need an upgrade at the position no matter what. If you look at the league today, you need a PG that can defend. Guys like Rose and Westbrook are too powerful and quick for Calderon or Bayless, and more and more of these PG's are coming into the league every year.

  12. #32
    Raptors Republic Veteran Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote BallaBalla wrote: View Post
    ultimately, it would be difficult to pencil either of these into the starting lineup of a championship caliber team any time soon...
    I can honestly see Calderon a good fit with the Lakers (with or without Gasol).
    "I don't lie. I willfully participate in a campaign of misinformation." - Fox Mulder

  13. #33
    Super Moderator ReubenJRD's Avatar
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    Complete props in this post. Fantastic work on drawing these up.

    Only minus is the number of games Bayless had compared to Calderon, which everyone is probably posting about, but never really knew how much Bayless and Calderon comparisons actually lined up.

    I know that statistics don't tell the whole story, which I am guilty of saying often, but stats also don't lie....

  14. #34
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    Quote Nilanka wrote: View Post
    I can honestly see Calderon a good fit with the Lakers (with or without Gasol).
    The Lakers need a good point guard, period. They might chase Nash in the off-season.

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