View Poll Results: What is your #1 concern with trading for Rudy Gay?

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  • His fit with the Raptors

    3 8.33%
  • His talent and ability (or lack thereof)

    1 2.78%
  • His contract

    8 22.22%
  • Assets required to get him

    24 66.67%
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Thread: The case for Rudy Gay to the Raptors: Heisley speaks to rumours (277)

  1. #1
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Default The case for Rudy Gay to the Raptors: Heisley speaks to rumours (277)

    Similar to the thread for the case for Steve Nash to the Raptors, I offer the case for Rudy Gay to the Raptors.

    Before I talk about the Raptors acquiring Gay, it is important to talk about why he is a likely trade target. Memphis is a very good NBA team. Unfortunately if they have not already done so, they are about to hit a wall. Here are reasons why:

    1) Finances. The Grizzlies have $54M tied up in Gay, Randolph, Gasol, and Conley. They have $62.4M tied up in 9 players for next year - and that does not include a proven backup PG, back up PF or C, bench scoring, or players capable of shooting from 3. The $62.4M also does not include the qualifying offers to Mayo, Speights, or Arthur nor the guaranteed contract of the 25th pick in the draft. 4 of these players makes the team an automatic luxury tax team if those offers are made and pick is kept.

    Straight from Michael Heisley's Canadian anthem butchering mouth:

    Heisley said it's too soon to predict what moves, if any, that the team will make to improve the roster.

    He did emphasize, though, that the franchise isn't in position to add much salary.

    The Griz have big contracts committed to Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. They have Mike Conley on a modest long-term deal, and will have to make similar tough decisions on several free agents this summer.

    "We can't be in the luxury tax business," Heisley said. "We've got to make some financial decisions. That's without question.

    http://www.commercialappeal.com/news...isley/?print=1
    2) Piggy-backing on the finances, the Grizzlies need depth - specifically a backup PG, back up C, three point shooting, and bench scoring. Watching the Grizzlies play in the playoffs the last 2 seasons depth was the difference. If the Grizzlies hope to push beyond the 2nd round of the playoffs, these needs have to be addressed. The problem is since Heisley is not going to be a taxpayer (and miss out on the revenue sharing as a result) they need to address these areas with just $7.9M of salary.

    3) The argument of Gay-Randolph needing more time together is a false one.

    Mannix's column is the latest but far from the first to indulge this oversight. Early on, in a column that wonders whether Gay and Randolph can “learn to coexist,” he reports that the Grizzlies finished last season on a 15-10 run after Gay was injured, presumably to suggest how well the team played when Randolph didn't have to share the court with Gay. But how'd they do in the 25 games before Gay was injured? Try 17-8.

    More egregious is the column's close: “A full season together would help Gay and Randolph jell — but an early exit means they might not get it.”

    If only we could see what it looks like when Randolph and Gay play a full season together. But to do that you have to flash back two whole years, before the Grizzlies returned to the playoffs, a period during which the franchise apparently didn't exist.

    That was 2009-2010, Randolph's first season with the Grizzlies, when he and Gay missed a combined three games. Playing together all season — This really happened. You can look it up. — Randolph made his first All-Star team and Gay averaged 20 points on 47% shooting. The team was in the playoff hunt despite having possibly one of the worst benches in NBA history — second-round rookie Sam Young was the sixth man and the only bench player who had any business even playing regular NBA minutes that season. The team had a winning record until Marc Gasol missed the final month with a season-ending injury. The starting lineup of Mike Conley-O.J. Mayo-Gay-Randolph-Gasol was one of the most effective primary lineups in the league that season.

    http://www.memphisflyer.com/Beyondth...game-3-preview
    Gay and Randolph can co-exist. There are three problems with the pairing though:

    a) they are always going to be one injury to or one bad game from Gay-Gasol-Conley-Randolph away from not being their best,
    b) without paying luxury tax, they will have little depht to balance the attack, and
    c) to get the most out of one of Gay or Randolph, the other will have to take a back seat - and at $16M-plus per season, that is an expensive seat.

    4) Of their four large contracts, Gay is going to return the most value because: Gasol fills the toughest position in basketball (i.e. he is untouchable), Randolph is oldest with a sketchy past and owed $50M over the next 3 years, and Conley is a reasonable contract. Being a small market, non-luxury tax team the Grizzlies need depth over star power. They are going to be a better team with a strong back up PG and C and role players who can space the floor.

    5) Gay is the Andrea Bargnani of the Memphis fan base. For many fans the guy can do no right. If he has a good game and loses, they should have gone to Randolph more. If they go to Randolph, he is a bum because he is getting paid max money to put up less than max production. With Memphis taking Randolph on as their adopted son, Gay (and as a result Memphis) is in a lose-lose situation.


    So Memphis might trade Gay but why should Toronto be the trade partner with Memphis?

    1) Toronto can provide what Memphis needs: role players, high draft pick, and financial relief.

    Looking around the league there are rumours of Golden State wanting a star SF. GSW could provide the 7th pick, Klay Thompson, and Dorrell Wright. Unfortunately the numbers would not work and another contract would have to be added to make it work: the options would be Andris Biedrins ($18M, 2 years) or Richard Jefferson ($21.2M, 2 years). Jefferson creates a backlog at SF (and an expensive one at that) with still no backup PG or C. Biendris provides a backup C but one who averages 1.7 points and 3.7 rebounds in 16 minutes but shoots 11.1% (no mistype) from the FT line.

    Stephen A. Smith is adamant that Philly is going to look to trade Igoudala and mentioned a swap of Gay and AI as a possibility. Personally, I don't see that trade helping Memphis. It still leaves them with numerous holes in their lineup and gives them just an extra $1.7M to fill out their roster. AI's production and health has been in decline the last few seasons.

    Sacramento is the team - other than Toronto that makes the most sense - to trade for Rudy Gay. They have cap space to take on his contract, a high draft pick (#5), and a young player (Tyreke Evans) to send back. I do see problems for both sides though. For Memphis, Tyreke Evans is going to be looking to get PAID next year. That puts them back in a similar situation they are already in - especially if he has a return to rookie season production. For Sacramento, ownership is in a bitter battle that will likely end in relocation of the franchise and ownership is also suffering financially. Could Sacramento take on Gay and his $54M contract over the next 3 years?

    As for Toronto, a package of James Johnson, Ed Davis, and #8 pick provides depth to the roster, a possible starting replacement in JJ and/or the pick. This trade would also provide them with $7M in cap space prior to July 1st. If the trade was made with enough time before July 1st, they might be able to use that space prior to July 1st to get another player that fits a need (or 3rd team could be brought in on the trade). The Grizzlies could then look at keeping their own free agents after July 1st and/or using the MLE to round out their roster.

    To wrap up #1, I'm not sure the Grizzlies want what Toronto would be offering but, outside of Sacramento, I am having difficulty finding another trade partner that would offer as many benefits as the Raptors.

    2) Toronto needs a dynamic scoring wing. I do not consider DeRozan a dynamic scorer because he has difficulty creating for himself and is inconsistent from deep. Gay would provide Toronto with something they have not had since Wince left. He did shoot a career low of 32% from three last year but considering the abnormal schedule and return from shoulder injury, I think there is reason to believe he would return closer to his career average (and if lucky the 39.6% prior to his shoulder injury).

    3) Gay is only turning 26 in August. He is entering his prime. His biggest knock has been inconsistency on defense. He has all the tools, it comes down to motivation and teaching. Dwane Casey is a great teacher and motivator. I think Gay could take the next step as a near all-star to a legit all-star in Toronto.

    4) Rudy Gay is overpaid but the Raptors are not getting a player of his calibre without overpaying to begin with via free agency. Getting a talent such as him through the draft is hardly a guarantee and would take time to develop. With the current salary cap situation, Toronto would be able to take on Gay's contract with minimal short term or long term ill-effects. The highest paid players currently on Toronto are Calderon ($10.5M expiring after 12-13) and Bargnani ($10M, $11M, and $12M over next three years). Given Gay is only 26 and the remarkable influence Casey was able to have on Bargnani, after a few months of working with Casey, Gay might not be considered overpaid.

    5) Colangelo's comment suggest big things to happen this summer. Trading for Rudy Gay would be B-I-G in my opinion. TheScore.ca RaptorsBlog sums it up nicely:

    With money to spend, young assets and the right coach in tow, only one guaranteed season left on his own contract and after two seasons of rebuilding, you would have to assume that any general manager or basketball executive would be “raring to go,” as Colangelo put it last Friday.

    Colangelo is not just any general manager though, and we’ve all seen what he can do and is willing to do over the course of one summer when he sees the chance to vastly improve his team. This off-season should be no different.

    Perhaps the greatest sign comes from a letter, addressed to season seat holders by Colangelo, in which he thanks seat holders and welcomes them to follow along for “what should be an exciting and active offseason.”

    An average off-season to Bryan Colangelo is an active off-season to the average general manager. An “exciting and active” off-season to Colangelo, when you look at some of the off-seasons he’s had here in Toronto, leaves a lot to the imagination of Raptors fans.

    This is a team that not only has a large amount of cap space to be used in the summer, but also has as much cap flexibility as any team between now and July 1, and based on Colangelo’s comments, you can probably bet he’ll be trying to utilize that space sooner, rather than later.

    http://blogs.thescore.com/raptorblog...ve-off-season/
    6) Toronto would have a young, dynamic and exciting front court for at least the next 3 years of Gay, Bargs, and JV with solid possible reserves in Kleiza, Amir, and Gray (assuming ED and JJ were dealt).

    7) Giving up a top 10 draft pick is never easy but it appears the Raptors might be able to get another draft pick fairly easily if they wish to:

    Teams Looking to Trade First-Round Picks: Over the next few weeks, don’t be surprised if a large number of teams outside of the lottery try to trade their first-round pick.

    Multiple sources have told HOOPSWORLD that a lot of teams are trying to get rid their pick, which could make for an interesting draft night.

    “Almost everyone wants to get out of their pick in this draft,” said one Western Conference executive. “For some teams, it’s hard to take on money for multiple years in this economic climate, especially if the player would not make an impact and help the team win immediately.”

    http://www.hoopsworld.com/nba-saturd...lences-critics
    It is also important to remember that many feel Valanciunas would be the consensus #2 pick if he were in this draft. Plus the Raptors have an early 2nd round pick that might yield a promising player given the depth of the draft.

    8) Colangelo was very high on Gay in the 2006 draft. It was him or Bargnani from what I recall.



    If I left anything out on the case for Rudy Gay to Toronto add a post.

    I can think of arguments against Gay coming to Toronto but I figure I'll leave that to others because I think the positives far outweigh the negatives.
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Sun Jun 3rd, 2012 at 10:17 AM. Reason: #8 added

  2. #2
    Raptors Republic Superstar Puffer's Avatar
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    Great wrap up Matt. All sounds possible.

    Now if only both of your projected paths for the Raps could come true and both Nash and Gay were added to team, along with JV, leaving Jose, Bayless, Klieza, Amir and Gray coming off the bench, I would be confident of their ability to make the play-offs next year.

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    Raptors Republic Starter pesterm1's Avatar
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    you make some very good points.
    if gay came to the raptors it would be awesome.
    Plus Nash too.

    Nash
    Derozan
    Gay
    Bargnani
    Valnciunas

  4. #4
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    If Gay was brought in, it would be in Toronto's best interest to obtain Nash via sign and trade, in my opinion.

    I do think that if Nash told Phoenix, "Toronto is where I want to go" the Suns would accommodate.

    To make the salaries match, Toronto could sign and trade Bayless and throw in Forbes. To get the $10M 'magic number' the Raptors would have to send out $6.7M to Phoenix.

    The other possibility is, since the supposed Gay trade would take the Raptors to the salary cap, they could amnesty Calderon. The problem with this is the Raptors would lose their exceptions to sign him as an UFA. I would not advocate this.

    What I would strongly consider is: s&t Bayless/Derozan for Nash/#13 if Jeremy Lamb, Dion Waiters, or Terrence Ross was available at 13 (I'd prefer Lamb).

    I find it hard to get a handle on what Phoenix is thinking these days. They are reportedly going to offer Alonzo Gee $16M over 4 years. Clearly they have not learned much after the contracts given to Childress, Warrick, and Brown over the last few years (and arguably Frye).
    Last edited by mcHAPPY; Sun Jun 3rd, 2012 at 08:40 AM.

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    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Great analysis Matt. However, I would anticipate that any trade discussion with Memphis would begin with the Grizzlies' GM asking BC "so what are you prepared to give up, in addition to #8 and DeRozan?"

    I see a trade looking more like this:
    DeRozan & JJ & Davis/Amir & #8 --> Gay & #25

    Memphis could then draft a PG at #8 and the only rotation player they'd be missing would be a backup C. If Amir was the PF included, he can even play some backup C. Memphis would still be saving $4.3M next season with Amir included ($8.1M savings with Davis instead).
    C: Gasol, ???
    PF: Randolph, Amir/Davis, Cunningham
    SF: DeRozan, JJ, Pondexter
    SG: Mayo, Allen
    PG: Conley, #8, Pargo, Selby

    Toronto still has lots of ways to round out and further improve their roster after this trade is made. If Amir was included, Toronto would still have roughly $7.5M-8M of the projected $12M in cap space still available... would that be enough to sign Batum??? Maybe that scenario is too good to be true!

    C: Valanciunas, ???
    PF: Bargnani, Amir/Davis
    SF: Gay, Kleiza
    SG: ???, ???, Forbes
    PG: Calderon, ???

    + #25, #37, #56, $4-8M cap space, MLE, Vet Min
    Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Sun Jun 3rd, 2012 at 09:56 AM.

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    Super Moderator MangoKid's Avatar
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    Why doesn't Memphis just amnesty Randolph and then S & T Mayo? They'd be more well rounded that way. It's easier to find star 4's than star swingmen.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Balls of Steel's Avatar
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    Man, this all sounds feasible. Perhaps it may come to fruition. I'm sure that this will be BCs year to swing for the fences. We will have to give up some serious assets to get Gay here. I like Gay a lot.
    “The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Jclaw's Avatar
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    Count me on the Rudy Gay bandwagon but...are we just overestimating a guy who hits game winning shots against us? Either way, great wrap up. I'm sold. Who else do we have to pass this by before it's official?

  9. #9
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote MangoKid wrote: View Post
    Why doesn't Memphis just amnesty Randolph and then S & T Mayo? They'd be more well rounded that way. It's easier to find star 4's than star swingmen.
    You think Heisley is going to write a cheque for $50 million to have Zach Randolph go away? Plus they get nothing in return.

    After amnestying Randolph, he might not count against the cap but he still gets paid (Memphis pays whatever the difference of whatever team places the winning bid) and the Grizzlies would be left with a 20-10 hole.

  10. #10
    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Great analysis Matt. However, I would anticipate that any trade discussion with Memphis would begin with the Grizzlies' GM asking BC "so what are you prepared to give up, in addition to #8 and DeRozan?"

    I see a trade looking more like this:
    DeRozan & JJ & Davis/Amir & #8 --> Gay & #25

    Memphis could then draft a PG at #8 and the only rotation player they'd be missing would be a backup C. If Amir was the PF included, he can even play some backup C. Memphis would still be saving $4.3M next season with Amir included ($8.1M savings with Davis instead).
    C: Gasol, ???
    PF: Randolph, Amir/Davis, Cunningham
    SF: DeRozan, JJ, Pondexter
    SG: Mayo, Allen
    PG: Conley, #8, Pargo, Selby

    Toronto still has lots of ways to round out and further improve their roster after this trade is made. If Amir was included, Toronto would still have roughly $7.5M-8M of the projected $12M in cap space still available... would that be enough to sign Batum??? Maybe that scenario is too good to be true!

    C: Valanciunas, ???
    PF: Bargnani, Amir/Davis
    SF: Gay, Kleiza
    SG: ???, ???, Forbes
    PG: Calderon, ???

    + #25, #37, #56, $4-8M cap space, MLE, Vet Min
    i dont think it will cost that much. memphis will be on a total salary dump just like the gasol trade. they will want ed, our pick and maybe another in 2014 with fodder added if the salaries dont match

  11. #11
    Super Moderator MangoKid's Avatar
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    Quote Matt52 wrote: View Post
    You think Heisley is going to write a cheque for $50 million to have Zach Randolph go away? Plus they get nothing in return.

    After amnestying Randolph, he might not count against the cap but he still gets paid (Memphis pays whatever the difference of whatever team places the winning bid) and the Grizzlies would be left with a 20-10 hole.
    After I posted it, it was only then I realized that there's no way they'd do that.

    So, the Grizz won't give away Randolph, but they'd just give away Rudy Gay for the Raptors' bits? I can't see Toronto and Memphis being good trading partners.

  12. #12
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote MangoKid wrote: View Post
    After I posted it, it was only then I realized that there's no way they'd do that.

    So, the Grizz won't give away Randolph, but they'd just give away Rudy Gay for the Raptors' bits? I can't see Toronto and Memphis being good trading partners.
    I would tend to agree.

    Maybe a third team gets brought in? Maybe Toronto does a little asset accumulation before a trade?

    The centre piece of any deal would be #8 and the financial flexibility.

    Freeing up $12M allows them to address back up PG and C in free agency. Rumours are Dalembert will be released (only $1.5M guaranteed for 12-13), maybe Memphis uses the cap space to pick up his $6.7M contract or makes an offer after a buyout by Houston? There are older veteran PG's available like Kirk Hinrich and younger PG's likely to be career backups like DJ Augustin. There are also lots of shooters available in free agency this year (again another need for the Grizzlies).

    Maybe the deal is made after July 1st and Bayless and Gray are included in sign and trades?

    I'm not sure what the answer is but looking around the league do you see a better offer than what Toronto can offer?

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    Super Moderator CalgaryRapsFan's Avatar
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    Quote Miekenstien wrote: View Post
    i dont think it will cost that much. memphis will be on a total salary dump just like the gasol trade. they will want ed, our pick and maybe another in 2014 with fodder added if the salaries dont match
    If you are right, then even better! You also have to think what other offers Memphis might receive. I think my trade is fair value for both teams, considering you have to give up value to get value, and Toronto would need to make a competitive offer.

  14. #14
    Raptors Republic Icon mcHAPPY's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    If you are right, then even better! You also have to think what other offers Memphis might receive. I think my trade is fair value for both teams, considering you have to give up value to get value, and Toronto would need to make a competitive offer.
    The issue I see including DeRozan is it does nothing to address their 3 point shooting woes.

    It also puts the Grizzlies in a similar situation as trading for Tyreke Evans - both guys are looking for an extension that could put the Grizzlies back in the same financial situation next summer.

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    Raptors Republic Starter AJ360's Avatar
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    Quote CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post
    Great analysis Matt. However, I would anticipate that any trade discussion with Memphis would begin with the Grizzlies' GM asking BC "so what are you prepared to give up, in addition to #8 and DeRozan?"

    I see a trade looking more like this:
    DeRozan & JJ & Davis/Amir & #8 --> Gay & #25
    I think that's offering too much. Rudy is a great player, but taking him off Memphis' hands helps them quite a bit already. You throw in a quality draft pick in a good draft and 2 young players at the absolute most.

    Cap space, 2 young players and a lottery pick is already a steep price for a non-all star. I really really like Rudy's game, but I'm not sure hes worth gutting the roster over... That being said I really hope BC can get him without surrendering too much.
    Last edited by AJ360; Sun Jun 3rd, 2012 at 10:48 AM.

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    Super Moderator MangoKid's Avatar
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    Quote AJ360 wrote: View Post
    I think that's offering too much. Rudy is a great player, but taking him off Memphis' hands helps them quite a bit already. You throw in a quality draft pick in a good draft and 2 young players at the absolute most.

    Cap space, 2 young players and a lottery pick is already a steep price for a non-all star. I really really like Rudy's game, but I'm not sure hes worth gutting the roster over... That being said I really hope BC can get him without surrendering too much.
    Would you trade Valanciunas to Milwaukee for Mike Dunleavy, Larry Sanders and the #12 pick?

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    Quote MangoKid wrote: View Post
    Would you trade Valanciunas to Milwaukee for Mike Dunleavy, Larry Sanders and the #12 pick?
    no, but bigV is locked up for 5 years at a very reasonable price with limitless upside. if bigv were on the other team and i was getting him in return i would make that trade.

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    Raptors Republic Starter AJ360's Avatar
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    Quote MangoKid wrote: View Post
    Would you trade Valanciunas to Milwaukee for Mike Dunleavy, Larry Sanders and the #12 pick?
    If we were trying to get out of Valanciunas' burdensome contract and the fanbase had turned on him AND we performed worse in the playoffs with him AND that was the best offer, I might.

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    Super Moderator MangoKid's Avatar
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    Quote Miekenstien wrote: View Post
    no, but bigV is locked up for 5 years at a very reasonable price with limitless upside. if bigv were on the other team and i was getting him in return i would make that trade.
    It's the same premise. You're talking about giving up 50 cents to the dollar.

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    Raptors Republic All-Star Miekenstien's Avatar
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    Quote MangoKid wrote: View Post
    It's the same premise. You're talking about giving up 50 cents to the dollar.
    i doubt there isn't an owner or gm that doesn't know how much heisley likes money. that team has already made the big splash once, took a backlash and the trade turned out good for them. there is no way i see someone making this an even trade. if this were the stock market, our cap space would be near enough the other 50% of value they are losing out on.

    it isn't going to be a basketball decision. it will be kids and picks to get rid of millions of dollars.

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